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High inflation to delay rate cuts, uncertain economy

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The economy still isn’t behaving the way anyone expected.

The job market is growing at a blockbuster pace, even though high interest rates usually slow hiring or cause layoffs. Consumers are spending on essentials and extravagances alike, suggesting people don’t fear trouble ahead. The stock market is up, and worries of a recession have largely faded.

But inflation, after easing remarkably in 2023, has stayed unexpectedly hot since the start of the year. And that’s confounding economists and Federal Reserve officials who are still struggling to understand the post-pandemic world.

Higher borrowing costs were widely expected to tackle inflation with full force, to bring the roaring economy crashing down — or both. Instead, things seem to be settling in a confusing spot, with price increases still above normal, but other parts of the economy holding strong, too. The result is more uncertainty for experts, consumers and businesses alike about what might happen next in an economy that is still resisting the usual rules.

“We got through some of that ‘transitory’ part,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, referring to more temporary sources of inflation that drove price increases in 2021 and 2022, such as supply chain problems and energy prices. “We haven’t gotten to the fundamental part — and the hard part.”

When the year started, it appeared the Fed and White House had pulled off the unthinkable: no recession, easing inflation and a still-booming job market. That momentum led Fed leaders in December to pencil in three interest rate cuts this year, projections they repeated last month.

But then January and February price data came in unexpectedly high. For a while, policymakers hoped those were bumps in the road, not a more worrisome trend. But March data, released this week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, cemented any lingering doubts.

Officials have long said they need a bit more assurance that inflation is trending down before they can cut rates. But after March’s disappointing report, central bankers might be losing the confidence they already had. So long as other strengths like the job market hold up, the Fed won’t have a compelling reason to cut rates and take pressure off the economy while inflation keeps festering.

As a result, financial markets and Fed watchers are no longer banking on June for an initial rate cut. The farther the timeline gets pushed back — possibly to Fed meetings in July, September or November — the closer the central bank bumps up against the presidential election, despite concerted attempts to avoid politics at all costs. On the flip side, the longer the Fed leaves rates high, the more it risks softening a generally strong economy just as President Biden and former president Donald Trump duel over who can best manage it.

“The Fed doesn’t want to be influenced by the political calendar,” said Eswar Prasad, an economist at Cornell University and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “The closer we get to November for that interest rate pivot, the more uncomfortable that is going to be.”

Part of the reason officials would otherwise want to cut rates is because too much pressure on the economy can cause other problems, even if inflation ebbs. Rates that stay high for a long time can eventually wear on the job market, persuading employers to stop adding jobs or lay off the staff they already have.

That leaves the Fed to balance its precarious inflation fight against daunting risks. The central bank is charged with keeping inflation in check and maximizing employment at the same time, even though those goals can conflict.

“If we ease too much or too soon, we could see inflation come back,” Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell said at a news conference last month. “And if we ease too late, we could do unnecessary harm to employment and people’s working lives.”

When the Fed raced to hoist interest rates two years ago, the underlying picture was different. Broken supply chains sent prices up for all kinds of goods as people rushed to buy used cars, at-home office equipment and backyard furniture. A jolt of government stimulus also injected fresh demand into the economy, sending checks into peoples’ pockets as they filled restaurants, concert venues and hotels that were hobbling back from the pandemic.

The Fed was late to respond. To catch up, officials doled out whopping interest rate hikes to get borrowing costs high enough to slow the economy. The overwhelming expectation was that those moves would cause a recession. Powell warned of pain ahead.

Not only did the Fed avoid a downturn, but inflation came down significantly, too: After peaking at an annual rate of 7.1 percent in mid-2022, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge clocked in at 2.5 percent in February. (Another inflation measure released this week peaked at 9.1 percent in June 2022 and now sits at 3.5 percent.)

Yet it isn’t entirely clear how much of that progress came from interest rate hikes alone. Econ 101 teaches that high rates cool demand by making it more expensive to get a mortgage, buy a car or grow a business. But surprises came there, too. The housing market, for example, went through a brief downturn but rebounded quickly. Home prices are still inching up, and many buyers haven’t shied from mortgage rates around 6 or 7 percent.

Much of the relief on inflation came from supply chains getting back into gear. Gas and energy costs also fell dramatically, a welcome pivot after they surged following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

The stickiest inflation category — which includes services like housing, hospitality, leisure and health care — still hasn’t had a major breakthrough.

“We’re probably in a much better place than many of us thought we’d be, in terms of a year ago,” said Jason Furman, a former Obama administration economist now at Harvard University. “We’re in a much worse place than we were hoping three months ago.”

At his news conference last month, Powell outlined what it would take to get inflation to hit the Fed’s 2 percent target — and put the economy on a path to rate cuts. Goods prices would need to keep simmering down. Housing costs would need to fall in line. Services inflation would need to cool, too.

But he also acknowledged what’s still unknown.

“Some combination of those three things” will be necessary, Powell said, “and it may be different from the combination we had before the pandemic.”

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Why tax-loss harvesting can be easier with ETFs

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Izusek | E+ | Getty Images

Despite a strong year for the stock market, you could still be sitting on portfolio losses. But you can leverage down assets to score a tax break, experts say.

The tactic, known as “tax-loss harvesting,” involves selling losing brokerage account assets to claim a loss. When you file your taxes, you can use those losses to offset portfolio gains. Once your investment losses exceed profits, you can use the excess to reduce regular income by up to $3,000 per year.

“Tax-loss harvesting is a tried and true strategy to lower investors’ tax bills,” said certified financial planner David Flores Wilson, managing partner at Sincerus Advisory in New York. 

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After offsetting $3,000 in regular income, investors can carry any additional losses forward into future years to offset capital gains or income.

“Investors can benefit substantially over time” by tax-loss harvesting consistently throughout the year, Wilson said.

What to know about the wash sale rule

Tax-loss harvesting can be simple when you’re eager to offload a losing asset. But it’s tricky when you still want exposure to that asset.

That’s because of guidelines from the IRS known as the “wash sale rule,” which blocks you from claiming the tax break on losses if you rebuy a “substantially identical” asset within the 30-day window before or after the sale.

In other words, you can’t sell a losing asset to claim a loss and then immediately repurchase the same investment. 

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Ultimately, the IRS definition of “substantially identical” isn’t black and white and “depends on the facts and circumstances” of your case, according to the agency.

When in doubt, consider reviewing your plan with an advisor or tax professional to make sure you’re safe from violating the wash sale rule.

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Older voters prioritized personal economic issues on Election Day: AARP

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Voters line up to cast their ballots at a voting location in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, on Nov. 5, 2024.

Samuel Corum | Afp | Getty Images

When asked, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” the answer for many older voters ages 50 and over was “no,” according to a new post-election poll released by the AARP.

Almost half — 47% — of voters ages 50 and over said they are “worse off now,” the research found, while more than half — 55% — of swing voters in that age cohort said the same.

In competitive Congressional districts, President-elect Donald Trump won the 50 and over vote by two percentage points — the same margin by which he carried the country, AARP found.

Among voters 50 to 64, Trump won by seven points. With voters ages 65 and over, Vice President Kamala Harris won by two points.

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The AARP commissioned Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, a bipartisan team of Republican and Democrat firms providing public opinion research and consulting, to conduct the survey. Interviews were conducted with 2,348 “likely voters” in targeted congressional districts following Election Day between Nov. 6 and 10.

Older voters, who make up an outsized share of the vote and tend to lean Republican, made a difference in a lot of key congressional races, according to Bob Ward, a Republican pollster and partner at Fabrizio Ward.

“Overall, 50-plus voters really are what delivered Republicans their majority,” Ward said.

Older swing voters focused on pocketbook issues

When asked “How worried are you about your personal financial situation?” in a June AARP survey, 62% of voters ages 50 and over checked the worry box, while 63% of voters overall did the same.

Voters continued to place an emphasis on their money concerns on Election Day, the latest AARP poll found.

“All these surveys that we conducted for AARP spoke to a lack of economic security for people,” said Jeff Liszt, partner at Impact Research.

“The shock of inflation had left them without a feeling of security,” he said.

For voters ages 50 and over, food ranked as the top cost concern, with 39%, the poll found. That was followed by health care and prescription drugs, with 20%; housing, 14%; gasoline, 10%; and electricity, 6%.

More than half — 55% — of voters ages 50 and up said they prioritized personal economic issues, including inflation, the economy and jobs, and Social Security when determining their vote.

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Older swing voters were more likely to turn out at the polls due to those pocketbook issues than any other priorities, the poll found.  

Republicans won older voters on most personal economic issues, though voters ages 50 and up still favored Democrats on Social Security by two points.  

Democrats have traditionally had a stronger lead on Social Security, Ward said, while the poll results show it is now “completely up for grabs.”

“Looking at the midterms, whether I’m Republican or Democrat … this is going to be an issue I want to win on,” Ward said.

Voters 50 and over broadly support Medicare negotiating prescription drug prices, as well as policies to help the older population age at home. Non-financial issues such as immigration and border security and threats to democracy were also among top concerns for some older voters.

Social Security reform may be bigger focus

While both presidential candidates promised to protect Social Security on the campaign trail, they did not provide plans to restore the program’s solvency.

The trust fund Social Security relies on to pay benefits is projected to run dry in 2033, at which point 79% of those benefits will be payable.

“What’s absolutely clear is that there’s an action-forcing event that we’re getting closer to, and that at some point Congress is going to have to act,” said Nancy Altman, president of Social Security Works, an advocacy group focused on expanding the program.

While Trump has touted plans to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, research has found that would worsen the program’s insolvency. The House voted this week to eliminate rules that reduce Social Security benefits for certain people who have pension income, which would also add to the program’s costs.

For most Americans, Social Security is the primary source of retirement income, according to the AARP. About 42% of people ages 65 and over rely on the program for at least 50% of their incomes; about 20% rely on it for at least 90% of their incomes.

Like Social Security, Medicare also faces a looming trust fund depletion for the Part A program that covers hospital insurance.

“We want to ensure that we’re protecting Medicare, Social Security and that it’s done in a fiscally responsible way,” AARP CEO Dr. Myechia Minter-Jordan told CNBC in a recent interview.

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Here’s what to expect on mortgage rates into early 2025

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Mortgage rates seem to have steadied. That may be a good sign for the market, experts say.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the U.S. slightly dipped to 6.78% for the week ending Nov. 14, barely changed from 6.79% a week prior, according to Freddie Mac data via the Federal Reserve.

“Even though it’s higher than it has been over the course of several weeks, it’s probably good news for homebuyers,” said Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors. 

“When rates are moving around a lot, it makes a lot of uncertainty in the market,” Lautz said. 

Mortgage rates declined this fall in anticipation of the first interest rate cut since March 2020. But then borrowing costs jumped again this month as the bond market reacted to Donald Trump’s election win.

While the president-elect has talked about bringing mortgage rates down, presidents do not control borrowing costs for home loans, experts say.

Instead, mortgage rates closely track Treasury yields and are partially affected by what happens with the federal funds rate.

“They foresee inflationary policies, whether it’s tariffs or greater government spending, the tax bill … they’re pricing in more inflation,” said James Tobin, president and CEO of the National Association of Home Builders. “As the bond market reacts, mortgage rates are going to react to that, too.”

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Less volatility can be a good sign, said Chen Zhao, Chief economist at Redfin, an online real estate brokerage.

“High volatility by itself actually pushes mortgage rates even higher above treasury yields,” Zhao said. “More stable rates also means that homebuyers don’t have to worry during their home search about what their budget allows for changing.”

Trump’s team did not respond to a request for comment.

Don’t expect ‘huge swings’ on mortgage rates

Election uncertainty contributed to an upward swing in mortgage rates during October. Then rates went up even more last week as the stock market and yields reacted to the election results.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points on Nov. 6, closing to trade at 4.43%, hitting its highest level since July, as investors bet a Trump presidency would increase economic growth, along with fiscal spending. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up by 0.073 basis point to 4.276% that day, reaching its highest level since July 31.

But now that we have a president-elect, mortgage rates are expected to gradually come down over time, Lautz said.

From a monetary policy standpoint, future rate cuts are up in the air. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday that strong U.S. economic growth will allow policymakers to take their time in deciding how far and how fast to lower interest rates.

If the Fed continues to ease the federal funds rate, it could provide indirect downward pressure on mortgage rates, according to NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz.

“However, improved growth expectations would lead to higher rates, as would larger government deficits,” he said.

Experts say that mortgage rates might head into a “bumpy” or “volatile” path over the next year.

“I don’t think that there’s going to be any huge swings down into the 5% range,” Lautz said. “Our expectation is that rates are going to be in the 6% range as we move into 2025,” she said.

How buyers, sellers and homeowners can benefit

Rates that are trending lower can present an opportunity for buyers who have been house hunting for a while, especially as the winter season kicks in. Competition tends to slow down in the winter months in part because homebuyers with kids are in the middle of the school year and reluctant to move, Lautz explained. 

Our expectation is that rates are going to be in the 6% range as we move into 2025.

Jessica Lautz

Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors

Current homeowners can also make the most of lower rates.

For example, if you bought your home around this time last year, when mortgage rates peaked at around 8%, you might benefit from a mortgage refinance, Lautz said. 

It “makes sense” to consider a refinance if rates have fallen one to two points since you took out the loan, Jeff Ostrowski, a housing expert at Bankrate.com, told CNBC after the Fed’s first rate cut this fall.

Remember that a loan refinance isn’t free; you may incur associated costs like closing costs, an appraisal and title insurance. While the total cost will depend on your area, a refi is going to cost between 2% and 6% of the loan amount, Jacob Channel, an economist at LendingTree, said at that time.

If you’re pondering on whether to refi or not, look at what’s going on with rates, reach out to lenders and see if refinancing makes sense for you, experts say.

Homeowners have earned record home equity. U.S. homeowners with mortgages have a net homeowner equity of over $17.6 trillion in the second quarter of 2024, according to CoreLogic. Home equity increased in the second quarter of this year by $1.3 trillion, an 8.0% growth from a year prior.

If you’re looking to sell your current home, you may be able to counteract slightly high borrowing costs on your next property by placing a larger down payment, Lautz said.

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