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Home prices climb 6.4%, hit new record high in February: Case-Shiller

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Homebuyers won’t get a break with home prices anytime soon. (iStock)

Home prices kept climbing in February and hit a new all-time record, defying odds that higher mortgage rates might have a more pronounced negative impact on gains, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index report.

Home prices are now 6.4% above their level this time last year, up from the 6% increase registered in January. The 10-city composite increased 8% annually from 7.4% the previous month. At the same time, the 20-city composite posted a rise of 7.3%, up from 6.6% the previous month.  

Across the nation, home prices increased 0.6% month-over-month after dipping the previous month. The 10-city composite registered 1% growth, while the 20-city composite increased by 0.9%. The indices measure home prices in major metros across the country. This annual and monthly growth in home prices comes as homebuyers struggle with affordability issues caused by high mortgage rates and a lack of housing supply.  

“Since the previous peak in prices in 2022, this marks the second time home prices have pushed higher in the face of economic uncertainty,” S&P Dow Jones Indices Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets Brian D. Luke said. “The first decline followed the start of the Federal Reserve’s hiking cycle. The second decline followed the peak in average mortgage rates last October.”  

“Enthusiasm for potential Fed cuts and lower mortgage rates appears to have supported buyer behavior, driving the 10- and 20-City Composites to new highs,” Luke continued.

One way to use your home’s equity is through a cash-out refinance to help you pay down debt or fund home improvement projects. Visit Credible to find your personalized interest rate without affecting your credit score.

MIDDLE-INCOME AMERICANS FEEL MORE OPTIMISM ABOUT FINANCES AND ECONOMY’S DIRECTION: SURVEY

These cities saw the most significant house price gains

San Diego reported the highest year-over-year growth, with an annual increase of 11.4% in February—the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities. Chicago and Detroit followed in second place, each registering an annual increase of 8.9%. Portland, Oregon, saw the smallest gain in the index, just 2.2%.

“The Northeast region, which includes Boston, New York, and Washington, D.C., ranks as the best-performing market over the last half year,” Luke said. “As remote work benefited smaller (and sunnier markets) in the first part of the decade, return to office may be contributing to outperformance in larger metropolitan markets in the Northeast.”

Homebuyers can find the best mortgage rate by shopping around and comparing your options. You can visit an online marketplace like Credible to compare rates, choose your loan term and get preapproved with multiple lenders at once.

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Mortgage rates will stay higher for longer

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding food and energy prices — a key metric the Federal Reserve tracks to measure inflation — increased by 3.7% after rising to 2% in the fourth quarter, according to the latest gross domestic product (GDP) report.  An increase in inflation could delay the timeline for rate cuts or even introduce possible rate hikes, according to Jim Baird, Plante Moran Financial Advisors’ chief investment officer.

“Recession fears have abated for now, but inflation remains a key concern for consumers and one for which the outlook remains mixed,” Baird said in a statement. “Inflation has receded significantly since peaking but has been stuck in a comparatively narrow range by most measures since last fall. Even a modest resurgence in inflation could spook consumers while further delaying potential Fed rate cuts or putting the possibility of some additional tightening back on the table.”  

Since July, the central bank has kept its policy rate in the 5.25% to 5.5% range. Following its March meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that while interest rate cuts were still on the table for this year, the Fed remained committed to bringing inflation down to a 2% target rate and warned that lowering rates too soon would risk bringing inflation back while holding back too long posed a risk to economic growth. 

Mortgage rates have hovered above 7%  for two weeks, and borrowing costs will likely continue to increase as the prospect of interest rate cuts moves further into the distance. 

“As with many economic indicators, the road to normalizing housing markets remains windy,” CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp said. “While home sales and inventories are improving over last year’s bottom, higher mortgage rates continue to challenge affordability and keep many potential buyers on the sidelines.”

If you’re looking to become a homeowner, you could still find the best mortgage rates by shopping around. Visit Credible to compare your options without affecting your credit score.

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Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.

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India may have fastest growing e-commerce sector

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India: the "perfect" emerging market

Investors may want to consider adding exposure to the world’s second-largest emerging market.

According to EMQQ Global founder Kevin Carter, India’s technology sector is extremely attractive right now.

“It’s the tip of the spear of growth [in e-commerce] … not just in emerging markets, but on the planet,” Carter told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. 

His firm is behind the INQQ The India Internet ETF, which was launched in 2022. The India Internet ETF is up almost 21% so far this year, as of Friday’s close.

‘DoorDash of India’

One of Carter’s top plays is Zomato, which he calls “the DoorDash of India.” Zomato stock is up 128% this year.

“One of the reasons Zomato has done so well this year is because the quick commerce business blanket has exceeded expectations,” Carter said. “It now looks like it’s going to be the biggest business at Zomato.”

Carter noted his bullishness comes from a population that is just starting to go online.

“They’re getting their first-ever computer today basically,” he said, “You’re giving billions of people super computers in their pocket internet access.”

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How the Federal Reserve’s rate policy affects mortgages

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The Federal Reserve lowered its interest rate target three times in 2024.

This has many Americans waiting for mortgage rates to fall. But that may not happen for some time.

“I think the best case scenario is we’re going to continue to see mortgage rates hover around six and a half to 7%,” said Jordan Jackson, a global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “So unfortunately for those homeowners who are looking for a bit of a reprieve on the mortgage rate side, that may not come to fruition,” Jordan said in an interview with CNBC.

Mortgage rates can be influenced by Fed policy. But the rates are more closely tied to long-term borrowing rates for government debt. The 10-year Treasury note yield has been increasing in recent months as investors consider more expansionary fiscal policies that may come from Washington in 2025. This, combined with signals sent from the market for mortgage-backed securities, determine the rates issued within new mortgages.

Economists at Fannie Mae say the Fed’s management of its mortgage-backed securities portfolio may contribute to today’s mortgage rates.

In the pandemic, the Fed bought huge amounts of assets, including mortgage-backed securities, to adjust demand and supply dynamics within the bond market. Economists also refer to the technique as “quantitative easing.”

Quantitative easing can reduce the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields, which leads to cheaper loan terms for home buyers. It can also provide opportunities for owners looking to refinance their mortgages. The Fed’s use of this technique in the pandemic brought mortgages rates to record lows in 2021.

“They were extra aggressive in 2021 with buying mortgage-backed securities. So, the [quantitative easing] was probably ill-advised at the time.” said Matthew Graham, COO of Mortgage News Daily.

In 2022, the Federal Reserve kicked off plans to reduce the balance of its holdings, primarily by allowing those assets to mature and “roll-off” of its balance sheet. This process is known as “quantitative tightening,” and it may add upward pressure on the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields.

“I think that’s one of the reasons the mortgage rates are still going in the wrong direction from the Federal Reserve’s standpoint,” said George Calhoun, director of the Hanlon Financial Systems Center at Stevens Institute of Technology.

Watch the video above to learn how the Fed’s decisions affect mortgage rates.

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Fintechs are 2024’s biggest gainers among financials

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Jason Wilk

Source: Jason Wilk

Jason Wilk, the CEO of digital banking service Dave, remembers the absolute low point in his brief career as head of a publicly-traded firm.

It was June 2023, and shares of his company had recently dipped below $5 apiece. Desperate to keep Dave afloat, Wilk found himself at a Los Angeles conference for micro-cap stocks, where he pitched investors on tiny $5,000 stakes in his firm.

“I’m not going to lie, this was probably the hardest time of my life,” Wilk told CNBC. “To go from being a $5 billion company to $50 million in 12 months, it was so freaking hard.”

But in the months that followed, Dave turned profitable and consistently topped Wall Street analyst expectations for revenue and profit. Now, Wilk’s company is the top gainer for 2024 among U.S. financial stocks, with a 934% year-to-date surge through Thursday.

The fintech firm, which makes money by extending small loans to cash-strapped Americans, is emblematic of a larger shift that’s still in its early stages, according to JMP Securities analyst Devin Ryan.

Investors had dumped high-flying fintech companies in 2022 as a wave of unprofitable firms like Dave went public via special purpose acquisition companies. The environment turned suddenly, from rewarding growth at any cost to deep skepticism of how money-losing firms would navigate rising interest rates as the Federal Reserve battled inflation.

Now, with the Fed easing rates, investors have rushed back into financial firms of all sizes, including alternative asset managers like KKR and credit card companies like American Express, the top performers among financial stocks this year with market caps of at least $100 billion and $200 billion, respectively.

Big investment banks including Goldman Sachs, the top gainer among the six largest U.S. banks, have also surged this year on hope for a rebound in Wall Street deals activity.

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Dave, a fintech firm taking on big banks like JPMorgan Chase, is a standout stock this year.

But it’s fintech firms like Dave and Robinhood, the commission-free trading app, that are the most promising heading into next year, Ryan said.

Robinhood, whose shares have surged 190% this year, is the top gainer among financial firms with a market cap of at least $10 billion.

“Both Dave and Robinhood went from losing money to being incredibly profitable firms,” Ryan said. “They’ve gotten their house in order by growing their revenues at an accelerating rate while managing expenses at the same time.”

While Ryan views valuations for investment banks and alternative asset manages as approaching “stretched” levels, he said that “fintechs still have a long way to run; they are early in their journey.”

Financials broadly had already begun benefitting from the Fed easing cycle when the election victory of Donald Trump last month intensified interest in the sector. Investors expect Trump will ease regulation and allow for more innovation with government appointments including ex-PayPal executive and Silicon Valley investor David Sacks as AI and crypto czar.

Those expectations have boosted the shares of entrenched players like JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, but have had a greater impact on potential disruptors like Dave that could see even more upside from a looser regulatory environment.

Gas & groceries

Dave has built a niche among Americans underserved by traditional banks by offering fee-free checking and savings accounts.

It makes money mostly by extending small loans of around $180 each to help users “pay for gas and groceries” until their next paycheck, according to Wilk; Dave makes roughly $9 per loan on average.

Customers come out ahead by avoiding more expensive forms of credit from other institutions, including $35 overdraft fees charged by banks, he said. Dave, which is not a bank, but partners with one, does not charge late fees or interest on cash advances.

The company also offers a debit card, and interchange fees from transactions made by Dave customers will make up an increasing share of revenue, Wilk said.

While the fintech firm faces far less skepticism now than it did in mid-2023— of the seven analysts who track it, all rate the stock a “buy,” according to Factset — Wilk said the company still has more to prove.

“Our business is so much better now than we went public, but it’s still priced 60% below the IPO price,” he said. “Hopefully we can claw our way back.”

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