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Household finance outlook hits highest since February 2020 following Trump win

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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump holds an award during the FOX Nation’s Patriot Awards at the Tilles Center on December 05, 2024 in Greenvale, New York.

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

Optimism about household finances hit a multiyear high following Donald Trump’s presidential election victory in November, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey released Monday.

Households expecting their financial situations to be better a year from now jumped to 37.6%, an increase of about 8 percentage points from October, the central bank’s survey of approximately 1,300 heads of households showed. That was the highest reading since February 2020, just before the Covid-19 pandemic hit.

In conjunction with the rise of optimism, the level of those who expect their financial situation to get worse moved down to 20.7%, off nearly 2 percentage points from a month ago and the lowest since May 2021.

The results follow Trump’s Nov. 5 victory that will send him back to the White House for a second nonconsecutive term. The Republican has promised a menu of lower taxes and deregulation to boost growth.

Though the macro economy has showed solid growth through 2024, consumers remain stymied by price increases that spurred a cumulative increase in the consumer price index inflation gauge of more than 20% under President Joe Biden.

Even with the increase in sentiment, consumers’ inflation outlook is still cautious, according to the New York Fed Survey.

Inflation expectations at the one-, three- and five-year horizons all increased 0.1 percentage point, respectively rising to 3%, 2.6% and 2.9%. The Fed targets inflation at 2% but is still expected to lower its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point when it meets next week.

Though Trump has made little mention of attacking the government’s debt and deficit load, the outlook there improved as well. The median expectation for growth in government debt was at 6.2%, down 2.3 percentage points from October and the lowest level since February 2020.

Economics

Producer price index November 2024

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A measure of wholesale prices rose more than expected in November as questions percolated over whether progress in bringing down inflation has slowed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.

The producer price index, or PPI, which measures what producers get for their products at the final-demand stage, increased 0.4% for the month, higher than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 0.2%. On an annual basis, PPI rose 3%, the biggest advance since February 2023.

However, excluding food and energy, core PPI increased 0.2%, meeting the forecast. Also, subtracting trade services left the PPI increase at just 0.1%. The year-over-year increase of 3.5% also was the most since February 2023.

In other economic news Thursday, the Labor Department reported that first-time claims for unemployment insurance totaled a seasonally adjusted 242,000 for the week ending Dec. 7, considerably higher than the 220,000 forecast and up 17,000 from the prior period.

On the inflation front, the news was mixed.

Final-demand goods prices leaped 0.7% on the month, the biggest move since February of this year. Some 80% of the move came from a 3.1% surge in food prices, according to the BLS.

Within the food category, chicken eggs soared 54.6%, joining an across-the-board acceleration in items such as dry vegetables, fresh fruits and poultry. Egg prices at the retail level swelled 8.2% on the month and were up 37.5% from a year ago, the BLS said in a separate report Wednesday on consumer prices.

Services costs rose 0.2%, pushed higher by a 0.8% increase in trade.

The PPI release comes a day after the BLS reported that the consumer price index, or CPI, a more widely cited inflation gauge, also nudged higher in November to 2.7% on a 12-month basis and 0.3% month over month.

Despite the seemingly stubborn state of inflation, markets overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to lower its key overnight borrowing rate next week. Futures markets traders are implying a near certainty to a quarter percentage point reduction when the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee concludes its meeting Wednesday.

Following the release, economists generally viewed the data this week as mostly benign, with underlying indicators still pointing towards enough disinflation to get the Fed back to its 2% target eventually.

The Fed uses the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCE, as its primary inflation gauge and forecasting tool. However, data from the CPI and PPI feed into that measure.

An Atlanta Fed tracker is putting November PCE at 2.6%, up 0.3 percentage point from October, and core PCE at 3%, up 0.2 percentage point. The Fed generally considers core a better long-run indicator. A few economists said the details in the report point to a smaller monthly rise in PCE inflation than they had previously expected.

“It appears that only an exogenous shock such as dramatic tariff policy shifts would be capable of derailing supply-side contributions toward inflation’s return to the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% average goal in the near term,” PNC senior economist Kurt Rankin wrote.

Stock market futures were slightly in negative territory following the economic news. Treasury yields were mixed while the odds of a rate cut next week were still around 98%, according to the CME Group.

One reason markets expect the Fed to cut, even amid stubborn inflation, is that Fed officials are growing more concerned about the labor market. Nonfarm payrolls have posted gains every month since December 2020, but the increases have slowed lately, and Thursday brought news that layoffs could be increasing as unemployment lasts longer.

Jobless claims posted their highest level since early October, while continuing claims, which run a week behind, edged higher to 1.89 million. The four-week moving average of continuing claims, which smooths out weekly volatility, rose to its highest level in just over four years.

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Economics

The Young Thug trial could be Fani Willis’s last big act

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It is a result that has the government licking its wounds. In May 2022 Fulton County prosecutors indicted 28 men from Cleveland Avenue, a rough part of Atlanta, for committing a string of killings, robberies and drug deals in service of a street gang led by Jeffery Williams, a rapper who goes by the name “Young Thug”. Over the past year the state presented a Georgia jury with nearly 200 witnesses and a barrage of rap verses that, it argued, proved that “YSL”, used to denote Mr Williams’s platinum-selling record label “Young Stoner Life”, also stood for “Young Slime Life” and was an affiliate of the notorious Bloods gang from Los Angeles. But when the alleged kingpin pleaded guilty in late October to overseeing crimes the judge chose to ignore the state’s recommendation to lock him up for decades, opting instead for 15 years probation and banishing him from Atlanta for ten.

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Economics

The Young Thug trial could be the district attorney’s last big act

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It is a result that has the government licking its wounds. In May 2022 Fulton County prosecutors indicted 28 men from Cleveland Avenue, a rough part of Atlanta, for committing a string of killings, robberies and drug deals in service of a street gang led by Jeffery Williams, a rapper who goes by the name “Young Thug”. Over the past year the state presented a Georgia jury with nearly 200 witnesses and a barrage of rap verses that, it argued, proved that “YSL”, used to denote Mr Williams’s platinum-selling record label “Young Stoner Life”, also stood for “Young Slime Life” and was an affiliate of the notorious Bloods gang from Los Angeles. But when the alleged kingpin pleaded guilty in late October to overseeing crimes the judge chose to ignore the state’s recommendation to lock him up for decades, opting instead for 15 years probation and banishing him from Atlanta for ten.

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