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How Biden, Harris and Trump would change Social Security and Medicare

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A voter fills out a ballot at a polling station on Election Day in Falls Church, Virginia, U.S., November 7, 2023. 

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

When it comes to the November election, there is one issue that is at the top of voters’ wish lists: Social Security.

Despite political division, most Americans — 87% — want action to address Social Security’s trust fund shortfall, according to the National Institute on Retirement Security. The group polled 1,208 individuals aged 25 and older.

Meanwhile, 69% of Americans said a candidate’s stance on Social Security will be a major factor in how they vote in the presidential election, according to Nationwide Retirement Institute.

It polled 1,831 adults age 18 and up who “currently receive or expect to receive Social Security.”

While experts mostly agree a fix is needed, they are divided on how that should happen — whether it be through tax increases, benefit cuts or a combination of both.

The deadline to fix the programs will only grow more urgent during the next presidential administration.

“If something is going to happen before the eleventh hour, it is going to require presidential leadership,” said Emerson Sprick, associate director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Economic Policy Program. “That’s something we haven’t seen on this issue for a very long time.”

Projected depletion dates are looming

The latest projections from the Social Security trustees estimate the program’s combined funds may run out in 2035. At that time, just 83% of benefits may be payable. The projected depletion date for the trust fund used to pay retirement benefits is even sooner in 2033.

Medicare also faces a looming depletion date for its hospital insurance fund, which is projected to be able to pay 100% of benefits until 2036.

It is up to lawmakers to address the shortfalls before the projected depletion dates, when the programs will face across-the-board benefit cuts.

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The looming depletion dates come as the programs face other pressures.

Retirees are now reaching “peak 65” — with more than 11,200 individuals turning 65 every day.

As more individuals rely on Social Security and Medicare, the gross national debt has now climbed to a record $35 trillion.

“We should fix our dangerously close to insolvent Social Security and Medicare trust funds,” Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said in a statement.

Biden can ‘show leadership’ before presidency ends

U.S. President Joe Biden is flanked by family members as he speaks about the release of Americans detained in Russia during brief remarks at the White House in Washington, U.S., August 1, 2024. 

Nathan Howard | Reuters

While the focus is on the presidential campaigns, President Joe Biden still has a window of opportunity to work to address Social Security and Medicare.

“Biden has a really fantastic opportunity, if he wants to get the ball rolling and show some leadership on the issue in the lame duck,” Sprick said.

Some Democrats have proposed raising taxes for the wealthy and increasing benefits.

Meanwhile, a bipartisan group of lawmakers has proposed forming a commission to identify next steps. But those efforts like those have yet to prompt action, which would likely require compromises.

“The folks in Congress need leadership and a little bit of cover from the top of the ticket,” Sprick said.

Biden publicly vowed to protect Social Security and Medicare and “make the wealthy pay their fair share” during his March State of the Union address.

“We could extend the life of Medicare’s Trust Fund permanently — without cutting benefits — if Congressional Republicans would get on board with the President’s historic budget proposal to raise taxes on the wealthy,” said White House spokesperson Robyn Patterson.

“The President’s budget also clearly states his principles for strengthening Social Security,” Patterson said. “He looks forward to working with Congress to responsibly strengthen Social Security by ensuring that high-income individuals pay their fair share, without increasing taxes on anyone making less than $400,000 or cutting benefits.”

Trump wants to eliminate some Social Security taxes

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump holds a campaign rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, U.S., July 31, 2024. 

Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters

Former President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Thursday, in all capital letters, “Seniors should not pay tax on Social Security!”

Experts say the post likely refers to the taxes Social Security beneficiaries may owe on their benefit income. The Trump campaign did not return a request for comment by press time.

Exactly how much Social Security beneficiaries pay in taxes is based on their “combined income,” which includes adjusted gross income, nontaxable interest and half of their Social Security benefits.

For individuals with $25,000 to $34,000 in combined income — or married couples who file jointly with between $32,000 and $44,000 — up to 50% of benefits are taxed.

For individuals with more than $34,000 in combined income — or married couples with more than $44,000 — up to 85% of benefits may be taxable.

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Those thresholds are not adjusted for inflation. Consequently, as time passes and benefit income increases, more beneficiaries are liable for taxes on their benefits.

Nixing those levies would allow beneficiaries to keep more of their benefit income. But it would also reduce revenues for both Social Security and Medicare by about $1.6 trillion to $1.8 trillion between fiscal years 2026 and 2035, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates.

Like Biden, Trump has mostly promised not to cut Social Security. Yet in a March CNBC interview, Trump said he would consider cutting “entitlements,” which may refer to Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid.

“There is a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms of cutting and in terms of also the theft and bad management of entitlements,” Trump told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Harris opposes benefit cuts

Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally at the Georgia State Convocation Center on July 30, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. 

Megan Varner | Getty Images

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The key issues and who stands to benefit

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U.S. President Donald Trump announces the NFL draft will be held in Washington, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 5, 2025.

Leah Millis | Reuters

As negotiations ramp up for President Donald Trump‘s tax agenda, there are key issues to watch, according to policy experts.   

The House Ways and Means Committee, which oversees taxes, released a preliminary partial text of its portion of the bill on Friday evening. However, the bill could change significantly before the final vote. The full committee will debate and advance this legislation on Tuesday.

With control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, Republican lawmakers can pass Trump’s package without Democratic support via a process known as “reconciliation,” which bypasses the Senate filibuster with a simple majority vote.

But reconciliation involves multiple steps, and the proposals must fit within a limited budget framework. That could be tricky given competing priorities, experts say. 

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“The narrow [Republican] majority in the House is going to make that process very difficult” because a handful of votes can block the bill, said Alex Muresianu, senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation.

Plus, some lawmakers want a “more fiscally responsible package,” which could impact individual provisions, according to Shai Akabas, vice president of economic policy for the Bipartisan Policy Center.

As negotiations continue, here are some key tax proposals that could impact millions of Americans.

Extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts

The preliminary House Ways and Means text includes some temporary and permanent enhancements beyond the TCJA. These include boosts to the standard deduction, child tax credit, tax bracket inflation adjustments, the estate tax exemption and pass-through business deduction, among others.

Child tax credit expansion

Some lawmakers are also pushing for bigger tax breaks than what’s currently offered via the TCJA provisions.

“The child tax credit is one that we’re watching very closely,” Akabas said. “There’s a lot of bipartisan agreement on preserving and hopefully expanding that.”  

TCJA temporarily increased the maximum child tax credit to $2,000 from $1,000 per child under age 17, and boosted eligibility. These changes are scheduled to sunset after 2025.

The House in February 2024 passed a bipartisan bill to expand the child tax credit, which would have boosted access and refundability. The bill didn’t clear the Senate, but Republicans expressed interest in revisiting the issue.  

The early House Ways and Means text proposes expanding the maximum child tax credit to $2,500 per child for four years starting in 2025.

‘SALT’ deduction relief

Another TCJA provision — the $10,000 limit on the deduction for state and local taxes, known as “SALT” — was added to the 2017 legislation to help fund other tax breaks. That provision will also expire after 2025.

Before the change, filers who itemized tax breaks could claim an unlimited deduction for SALT. But the so-called alternative minimum tax reduced the benefit for some higher earners. 

Repealing the SALT cap has been a priority for certain lawmakers from high-tax states like California, New Jersey and New York. In a policy reversal, Trump has also voiced support for a more generous SALT deduction. 

“If you raise the cap, the people who benefit the most are going to be upper-middle-income,” since lower earners typically don’t itemize tax deductions, Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, previously told CNBC.

The SALT deduction was absent from the preliminary House Ways and Means text. But Congressional negotiations are ongoing.

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Trump’s campaign ideas

On top of TCJA extensions, Trump has also recently renewed calls for additional tax breaks he pitched on the campaign trail, including no tax on tips, tax-free overtime pay and tax-exempt Social Security benefits. These ideas were not yet included in the early House Ways and Means text.  

However, there are lingering questions about the specifics of these provisions, including possible guardrails to prevent abuse, experts say.

For example, you could see a questionable “reclassification of income” to qualify for no tax on tips or overtime pay, said Muresianu. “But there are ways you could mitigate the damage.”

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How top tax rates compare, as Trump eyes hike for wealthy

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U.S. President Donald Trump points as he attends the annual Friends of Ireland luncheon hosted by U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 12, 2025. 

Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

As Republicans wrestle with funding their massive spending and tax package, President Donald Trump is eyeing a possible tax hike for the highest earners.

The idea, which lacks Republican support, could return the top federal income tax rate to 2017 levels for some of the wealthiest Americans.  

In a phone call Thursday, NBC reported, Trump pressed House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., to raise the top income tax rate on the wealthiest Americans and close the so-called carried interest loophole. The proposal would revert the 37% rate to 39.6% for individuals making $2.5 million or more per year, to help preserve Medicaid and tax cuts for everyday Americans.

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Trump on Friday expressed openness to the tax hike on the wealthiest Americans in a Truth Social post, noting he would “graciously accept” the tax increase to “help the lower and middle income workers.”

“Republicans should probably not do it, but I’m OK if they do!!!” he wrote.

Enacted by Trump, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, of 2017 created sweeping tax breaks for individuals and businesses. Most will sunset after 2025 without an extension from Congress.

The TCJA temporarily dropped the highest income tax rate from 39.6% to 37%. For 2025, the 37% rate kicks in for single filers once taxable income exceeds $626,350.    

How Trump’s idea compares to historic rates

If signed into law, a top 39.6% income tax rate would return wealthy taxpayers to pre-TCJA levels from 2013 to 2017. Before that, the top rate was 35% during most of the early 2000s, according to data collected by the Tax Policy Center. The highest top rate was 94% from 1944-1945.

However, this data doesn’t reflect how much income was subject to top rates or the value of standard and itemized deductions during these periods, the organization noted.

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Real estate and gold vs. stocks: Best long-term investment

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Brendon Thorne | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Some Americans believe real estate and gold are the best long-term investments. Advisors think that’s misguided.

About 37% of surveyed U.S. adults view real estate as the best investment for the long haul, according to a new report by Gallup, a global analytics and advisory firm. That figure is roughly unchanged from 36% last year

Gold was the second-most-popular choice, with 23% of surveyed respondents. That’s five points higher than last year. 

To compare, just 16% put their faith in stocks or mutual funds as the best long-term investment — a decline of six percentage points from 2024’s report, Gallup found.

The firm polled 1,006 adults in early April.

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Financial advisors caution that this preference is likely more about buzz than fundamentals. Be careful about getting caught up in the hype, said certified financial planner Lee Baker, the founder, owner and president of Claris Financial Advisors in Atlanta.

Carolyn McClanahan, a CFP and founder of Life Planning Partners in Jacksonville, Florida, agreed: “People are always chasing what’s hot, and that’s the stupidest thing you could do.”

Here’s what investors need to know about gold and real estate, and how to incorporate them in your portfolio.

Why gold and real estate are alluring

Baker understands why people like the idea of real estate and gold: Both are tangible objects versus stocks. 

“You buy a house, you can see it, feel it, touch it. Your investment in stocks perhaps doesn’t feel real,” said Baker, a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.

While the preference for gold grew this year, the share of Gallup respondents who think it’s the best long-term investment is still below the record high of 34% in 2011. Back then, gold investors sought refuge amid high unemployment, a crippled housing market and volatile stocks, Gallup noted.

Gold prices have been trending upward this spring. Spot gold prices hit an all-time high of above $3,500 per ounce in late April. One year ago, prices were about $2,200 to $2,300 an ounce.

Real estate has also drawn more interest in recent years amid high demand from buyers and accelerating prices. The median sale price for an existing home in the U.S. in March was $403,700, according to Bankrate. That is down from the record high of $426,900 in June.

Why stocks are the better bet

While real estate and gold are two assets that can appreciate in value over time, the stock market will generally grow at a much higher rate, experts say.

The annualized total return of S&P 500 stocks is 10.29% over the 30-year period ending in April, per Morningstar Direct data. Over the same time frame, the annualized total return for real estate is 8.78% and for gold, 7.38%.

McClanahan also points out that unlike gold and real estate, stocks are diversified assets, meaning you’re spreading out your cash versus concentrating it into one investment.

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How to include gold, real estate into your portfolio

If you are among the Americans that want exposure to real estate or gold, there are different ways to do it wisely, experts say.

For real estate, financial advisors say investors might look into real estate investment trusts, also known as REITs, or consider investments that bundle real estate stocks, like exchange-traded funds.

An REIT is a publicly traded company that invests in different types of income-producing residential or commercial real estate, such as apartments or office buildings.

In many cases, you can buy shares of publicly traded REITs like you would a stock, or shares of a REIT mutual fund or exchange-traded fund. REIT investors typically make money through dividend payments.

Real estate mutual funds and exchange-traded funds will typically invest in multiple REITs and in the real estate market broadly. It’s even more diversified than investing in a single REIT.

Either way, you’re exposed to real estate without concentrating into a single property, and it will help diversify your portfolio, McClanahan said. 

Similar to gold — instead of stocking up on gold bullions, consider investing in gold through ETFs.

That way you avoid having to deal with finding a place to store or hide physical gold, you wash off the stress of it getting stolen or making sure it’s covered by your home insurance policy, experts say. 

“With the ETF, you actually get the value of the return of gold, but you don’t actually own it,” McClanahan said.

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