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How Biden, Harris and Trump would change Social Security and Medicare

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A voter fills out a ballot at a polling station on Election Day in Falls Church, Virginia, U.S., November 7, 2023. 

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

When it comes to the November election, there is one issue that is at the top of voters’ wish lists: Social Security.

Despite political division, most Americans — 87% — want action to address Social Security’s trust fund shortfall, according to the National Institute on Retirement Security. The group polled 1,208 individuals aged 25 and older.

Meanwhile, 69% of Americans said a candidate’s stance on Social Security will be a major factor in how they vote in the presidential election, according to Nationwide Retirement Institute.

It polled 1,831 adults age 18 and up who “currently receive or expect to receive Social Security.”

While experts mostly agree a fix is needed, they are divided on how that should happen — whether it be through tax increases, benefit cuts or a combination of both.

The deadline to fix the programs will only grow more urgent during the next presidential administration.

“If something is going to happen before the eleventh hour, it is going to require presidential leadership,” said Emerson Sprick, associate director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Economic Policy Program. “That’s something we haven’t seen on this issue for a very long time.”

Projected depletion dates are looming

The latest projections from the Social Security trustees estimate the program’s combined funds may run out in 2035. At that time, just 83% of benefits may be payable. The projected depletion date for the trust fund used to pay retirement benefits is even sooner in 2033.

Medicare also faces a looming depletion date for its hospital insurance fund, which is projected to be able to pay 100% of benefits until 2036.

It is up to lawmakers to address the shortfalls before the projected depletion dates, when the programs will face across-the-board benefit cuts.

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The looming depletion dates come as the programs face other pressures.

Retirees are now reaching “peak 65” — with more than 11,200 individuals turning 65 every day.

As more individuals rely on Social Security and Medicare, the gross national debt has now climbed to a record $35 trillion.

“We should fix our dangerously close to insolvent Social Security and Medicare trust funds,” Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said in a statement.

Biden can ‘show leadership’ before presidency ends

U.S. President Joe Biden is flanked by family members as he speaks about the release of Americans detained in Russia during brief remarks at the White House in Washington, U.S., August 1, 2024. 

Nathan Howard | Reuters

While the focus is on the presidential campaigns, President Joe Biden still has a window of opportunity to work to address Social Security and Medicare.

“Biden has a really fantastic opportunity, if he wants to get the ball rolling and show some leadership on the issue in the lame duck,” Sprick said.

Some Democrats have proposed raising taxes for the wealthy and increasing benefits.

Meanwhile, a bipartisan group of lawmakers has proposed forming a commission to identify next steps. But those efforts like those have yet to prompt action, which would likely require compromises.

“The folks in Congress need leadership and a little bit of cover from the top of the ticket,” Sprick said.

Biden publicly vowed to protect Social Security and Medicare and “make the wealthy pay their fair share” during his March State of the Union address.

“We could extend the life of Medicare’s Trust Fund permanently — without cutting benefits — if Congressional Republicans would get on board with the President’s historic budget proposal to raise taxes on the wealthy,” said White House spokesperson Robyn Patterson.

“The President’s budget also clearly states his principles for strengthening Social Security,” Patterson said. “He looks forward to working with Congress to responsibly strengthen Social Security by ensuring that high-income individuals pay their fair share, without increasing taxes on anyone making less than $400,000 or cutting benefits.”

Trump wants to eliminate some Social Security taxes

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump holds a campaign rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, U.S., July 31, 2024. 

Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters

Former President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Thursday, in all capital letters, “Seniors should not pay tax on Social Security!”

Experts say the post likely refers to the taxes Social Security beneficiaries may owe on their benefit income. The Trump campaign did not return a request for comment by press time.

Exactly how much Social Security beneficiaries pay in taxes is based on their “combined income,” which includes adjusted gross income, nontaxable interest and half of their Social Security benefits.

For individuals with $25,000 to $34,000 in combined income — or married couples who file jointly with between $32,000 and $44,000 — up to 50% of benefits are taxed.

For individuals with more than $34,000 in combined income — or married couples with more than $44,000 — up to 85% of benefits may be taxable.

Former President Donald Trump on entitlements: There's tremendous numbers of things you can do

Those thresholds are not adjusted for inflation. Consequently, as time passes and benefit income increases, more beneficiaries are liable for taxes on their benefits.

Nixing those levies would allow beneficiaries to keep more of their benefit income. But it would also reduce revenues for both Social Security and Medicare by about $1.6 trillion to $1.8 trillion between fiscal years 2026 and 2035, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates.

Like Biden, Trump has mostly promised not to cut Social Security. Yet in a March CNBC interview, Trump said he would consider cutting “entitlements,” which may refer to Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid.

“There is a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms of cutting and in terms of also the theft and bad management of entitlements,” Trump told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Harris opposes benefit cuts

Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally at the Georgia State Convocation Center on July 30, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. 

Megan Varner | Getty Images

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Here’s how tuition-free college aid programs can backfire

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Entrance to NYU Langone Hospital, New York City. 

Joan Slatkin | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

New York University’s Grossman School of Medicine made history in 2018 when it became the first top-ranked medical program to offer full-tuition scholarships to all students, regardless of need or merit. 

The number of applicants, predictably, spiked in the year that followed. But then, the share of incoming students considered “financially disadvantaged” sank to 3% in 2019, down from 12% in 2017, reports showed. 

“Tuition-free schools can actually increase inequity,” said Jamie Beaton, co-founder and CEO of Crimson Education, a college consulting firm. 

“Tuition-free colleges experience surges in application numbers, dramatically boosting the competitive intensity of the admissions process,” he said. “This in turn can skew admissions towards middle- or higher-income applicants who may be able to access more effective admissions resources, such as tutoring or extracurriculars.”

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“Our goal for tuition-free education was to clear pathways for the best and brightest future doctors from all backgrounds to attend NYU Grossman School of Medicine without the stress of taking on the average $200,000 in debt medical students typically incur,” Arielle Sklar, a spokesperson for the school told CNBC. “This allows students to align career choices with their passions in medicine rather than immediate economic pressures.”

Sklar, however, did not directly address the issue of declining low-income student enrollment.

Since the initiative by NYU’s Grossman School of Medicine, other top schools and programs have embraced the tuition-free model.

Harvard University was the latest undergraduate school to announce that it will be tuition free for undergraduates with family incomes of up to $200,000 beginning in the 2025-26 academic year, following similar initiatives at Vanderbilt University, Dartmouth, University of Pennsylvania and Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Nearly two dozen more schools have also introduced “no-loan” policies, which means student loans are eliminated altogether from their financial aid packages.

In the case of Harvard, “you may see a trend of families with income closer to $200,000 outcompeting low-income students for slots,” Beaton said. “This may shift the proportion of Harvard students from the top 1% of income down, but it might also decrease the share of low-income students to the benefit of middle or middle-upper income families.”

Dartmouth president: Need to ensure American students are competitive

More generous aid packages and tuition-free policies remove the most significant financial barrier to higher education but attract more higher-income applicants, other experts also say. 

“Even though it sounds like lower-income students are going to be advantaged, it’s the middle class that’s going to win here,” said Christopher Rim, president and CEO of college consulting firm Command Education.

“These colleges are trying to build a well-rounded class, they need middle class and wealthy students as well,” he added. “They are not trying to take fewer rich kids — they need them because they’re the ones that are also going to be donating.”

For lower income students, “anything that increases the number of applications will be detrimental,” said Eric Greenberg, president of Greenberg Educational Group, a New York-based consulting firm.

Nearly all students worry about high college costs

These days, taking on too much debt is the top worry among all college-bound students, according to a survey by The Princeton Review. 

College tuition has soared by 5.6% a year, on average, since 1983, significantly outpacing other household expenses, a recent study by J.P. Morgan Asset Management also found.

This rapid increase means that college costs have risen much faster than inflation, leaving families to shoulder a larger share of the expenses, experts say.

For the 2024-25 school year, tuition and fees plus room and board for a four-year private college averaged $58,600, up from $56,390 a year earlier. At four-year, in-state public colleges, it was $24,920, up from $24,080, according to the College Board.

To bridge the affordability gap, some of the nation’s top institutions are in an “affordability arms race,” according to Hafeez Lakhani, founder and president of Lakhani Coaching in New York. 

However, overall, most institutions do not have the financial wherewithal to offer tuition-free or no-loan aid programs, added Robert Franek, The Princeton Review’s editor in chief. “More than 95% of four-year colleges in the U.S. are tuition driven,” he said. 

Even if a school does not offer enough aid at the outset, there are other ways to bring costs down, according to James Lewis, co-founder of National Society of High School Scholars.

“Get beyond, ‘I can’t afford that,”‘ he said. “A lot of institutions will have a retail price but that’s not necessarily what a student will pay.”

Many schools will provide access to additional resources that can lower the total tab, he said, either through scholarships, financial aid or work-study opportunities.  

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You have options if you can’t pay your taxes by April 15

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Fotostorm | E+ | Getty Images

The tax deadline is days away — and the IRS is urging taxpayers to file returns on time and “pay as much as they can.”

However, if you can’t cover your total tax balance, there are options for the remaining taxes owed, according to the agency.

For most tax filers, April 15 is the due date for federal returns and taxes. But your federal deadline could be later if your state or county was impacted by a natural disaster.

If you are in the military stationed abroad or are in a combat zone during the tax filing season, you may qualify for certain automatic extensions related to the filing and paying of your federal income taxes.

Additionally, those living and working abroad also have extra time to file. 

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If you’re missing tax forms or need more time, You can file a tax extension by April 15, which pushes the federal filing deadline to Oct. 15.  

But “it’s an extension to file, not an extension to pay,” said Jo Anna Fellon, managing director at financial services firm CBIZ.

File by April 15 and ‘pay what you can’

If you can’t cover your balance by April 15, you should still file your return to avoid a higher IRS penalty, experts say.  

The failure-to-file penalty is 5% of unpaid taxes per month or partial month, capped at 25%.

By comparison, the failure-to-pay penalty is 0.5% of taxes owed per month, limited to 25%. Both penalties incur interest, which is currently 7% for individuals.

File on time and pay what you can.

Misty Erickson

Tax content manager at the National Association of Tax Professionals

“File on time and pay what you can,” said Misty Erickson, tax content manager at the National Association of Tax Professionals. “You’re going to reduce penalties and interest.” 

Don’t panic if you can’t cover the full balance by April 15 because you may have payment options, she said.

“The IRS wants to work with you,” Erickson added.

Options if you can’t pay your taxes

“Most individual taxpayers can qualify for a payment plan,” the IRS said in a recent news release.

The “quickest and easiest way” to sign up is by using the online payment agreement, which may include a setup fee, according to the agency.

These payment options include:

  • Short-term payment plan: This may be available if you owe less than $100,000 including tax, penalties and interest. You have up to 180 days to pay in full.
  • Long-term payment plan: You’ll have this option if your balance is less than $50,000 including tax, penalties and interest. The monthly payment timeline is up to the IRS “collection statute,” which is typically 10 years.  

The agency has recently revamped payment plans, to make the program “easier and more accessible.”    

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Regulated finance needs to build trust with Gen Z

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Parents want schools to step up in teaching kids financial literacy

Misinformation and lack of trust in traditional institutions runs rampant in our society.

The regulated financial sector is no different, particularly among young people. Roughly 38% of Gen Zers get financial information from YouTube, and 33% from TikTok, according to a recent Schwab survey.

As a former regulator and author of kids’ books about money, I am truly horrified by the toxic advice they are getting from these unqualified “finfluencers” — advice which, if followed, could cause lasting damage to their financial futures.

Most troubling are finfluencers who encourage young people to borrow. A central theme is that “chumps” earn money by working hard and that rich people make money with debt. They supposedly get rich by borrowing large sums and investing the cash in assets they expect to increase in value or produce income which can cover their loans and also net a tidy profit.

Of course, the finfluencers can be a little vague about how the average person can find these wondrous investments that will pay off their debt for them. Volatile, risky investments — tech stocks, crypto, precious metals, commercial real estate — are commonly mentioned.

‘The road to quick ruin’ for inexperienced investors

Contrary to their assertions, these finfluencers are not peddling anything new or revelatory. It’s simply borrowing to speculate.

For centuries, that strategy has been pursued by inexperienced investors as the path to quick riches, when in reality, it’s the road to quick ruin. There is always “smart money” on the other side of their transactions, ready to take advantage of them. For young people just starting out, with limited incomes and tight budgets, it’s the last thing they should be doing with their precious cash.

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Debt glorification is not the only bad advice being peddled on the internet.

You can find finfluencers advising against diversified, low fee stock funds in favor of active trading (without disclosing research consistently showing active trading’s inferior returns). Or ones that discourage individual retirement accounts and 401(k) plans as savings vehicles in favor of real estate or business startups (without mentioning lost tax benefits as well as the heavy costs and expertise needed to manage real estate or high failure rates among young companies).

Some encourage making minimum payments on credit cards to free up money for speculative investments (without mentioning the hefty interest costs of carrying credit card balances which compound daily).

Why are so many young people turning to these unqualified social media personalities for help in managing their money instead of regulated and trained finance professionals?

One reason: the finfluencers make their advice entertaining. It may be wrong, but it’s short and punchy. Materials provided by regulated financial service providers can sometimes be dry and technical.

Where to get trustworthy money advice

Xavier Lorenzo | Moment | Getty Images

They may be boring, but regulated institutions are still the best resource for young people to get basic, free information.

FDIC-insured banks can explain to them how to open checking and savings accounts and avoid unnecessary fees. Any major brokerage firm can walk through how to set up a retirement saving account. It’s part of their function to explain their products and services, and they have regulators overseeing how they do it.

In addition, regulators themselves offer educational resources directly to the public. For young adults, one of the most widely used is Money Smart, offered by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation — an agency I once proudly chaired.

There are also many excellent regulated and certified financial planners. However, most young people will not have the budget to pay for financial advice. 

They don’t have to if they just keep it simple: set a budget, stick to it, save regularly, and start investing for retirement early in a low-fee, well-diversified stock index fund. They should minimize their use of financial products and services. The more accounts and credit cards they use, the harder it will be to keep track of their money.

Above all, they should ignore unqualified “finfluencers.” 

Check their credentials. Question their motives. Most are probably trying to build ad revenue or sell financial products. In the case of celebrities, find out who’s paying them (because most likely, someone is).

Regulated finance needs to reclaim its status as a more trustworthy source for advice. The best way to do that is, well, provide good advice. Every time a young adult is burnt by surprise bank fees, seduced into over borrowing by a misleading credit card offer, or told to put their retirement savings into a high fee, underperforming fund, they lose trust.

I know regulation and oversight are out of favor these days. But we need a way to keep out the bad actors, and practices to protect young people new to the financial world. It’s important to their financial futures and the future of the industry as well.

Sheila Bair is former Chair of the FDIC, author of the Money Tales book series, and the upcoming “How Not to Lose $1 Million” for teens. She is a member of CNBC’s Global Financial Wellness Advisory Board.

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