Personal Finance

How investors can prepare for lower interest rates

Published

3 months ago

August 23, 2024

Business Finance News

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Andrew Harnik | Getty Images

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on Friday gave the clearest indication yet that the central bank is likely to start cutting interest rates, which are currently at their highest level in two decades.

If a rate cut comes in September, as experts expect, it would be the first time officials have trimmed rates in over four years, when they slashed them to near zero at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Investors may be wondering what to do at the precipice of this policy shift.

Those who are already well diversified likely don’t need to do much right now, according to financial advisors on CNBC’s Advisor Council.

“For most people, this is welcome news, but it doesn’t mean we make big changes,” said Winnie Sun, co-founder and managing director of Sun Group Wealth Partners, based in Irvine, California.

“It’s kind of like getting a haircut: We’re doing small trims here and there,” she said.

Fed Chair Powell indicates interest rate cuts ahead: 'The time has come for policy to adjust'

Many long-term investors may not need to do anything at all — like those holding most or all of their assets in a target-date fund via their 401(k) plan, for example, advisors said.

Such funds are overseen by professional asset managers equipped to make the necessary tweaks for you.

“They’re doing it behind the scenes on your behalf,” said Lee Baker, a certified financial planner and founder of Claris Financial Advisors, based in Atlanta.

That said, there are some adjustments that more-hands-on investors can consider.

Largely, those tweaks would apply to cash and fixed income holdings, and perhaps to the types of stocks in one’s portfolio, advisors said.

Lower rates are ‘positive’ for stocks

In his keynote address on Friday at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell said that “the time has come” for interest-rate policy to adjust.

That proclamation comes as inflation has fallen significantly from its pandemic-era peak in mid-2022. And the labor market, though still relatively healthy, has hinted at signs of weakness. Lowering rates would take some pressure off the U.S. economy.

The Fed will likely be choosing between a 0.25 and 0.50 percentage-point cut at its next policy meeting in September, Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics wrote in a note Friday.

Lower interest rates are “generally positive for stocks,” said Marguerita Cheng, a CFP and chief executive of Blue Ocean Global Wealth, based in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Businesses may feel more comfortable expanding if borrowing costs are lower, for example, she said.

But uncertainty around the number of future rate cuts, as well as their size and pace, mean investors shouldn’t make wholesale changes to their portfolios as a knee-jerk reaction to Powell’s proclamation, advisors said.

“Things can change,” Sun said.

Importantly, Powell didn’t commit to lowering rates, saying the trajectory depends on “incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

Considerations for cash, bonds and stocks

Falling interest rates generally means investors can expect lower returns on their “safer” money, advisors said.

This would include holdings with relatively low risk, like cash held in savings accounts, money market funds or certificates of deposit, and money in shorter-term bonds.

High interest rates have meant investors enjoyed fairly lofty returns on these lower-risk holdings.

It’s kind of like getting a haircut: We’re doing small trims here and there.

Winnie Sun

co-founder and managing director of Sun Group Wealth Partners

However, such returns are expected to fall alongside declining interest rates, advisors said. They generally recommend locking in high guaranteed rates on cash now while they’re still available.

“It’s probably a good time for people who are thinking about buying CDs at the bank to lock in the higher rates for the next 12 months,” said Ted Jenkin, a CFP and the CEO and founder of oXYGen Financial, based in Atlanta.

“A year from now you probably won’t be able to renew at those same rates,” he said.

Others may wish to park excess cash — sums that investors don’t need for short-term spending — in higher-paying fixed-income investments like longer-duration bonds, said Carolyn McClanahan, a CFP and founder of Life Planning Partners in Jacksonville, Florida.

Fed Chair Powell is 'a bit more definitive' on rate cuts than I'd imagined, says Roger Ferguson

“We’re really being aggressive about making sure clients understand the interest-rate risk they’re taking by staying in cash,” she said. “Too many people aren’t thinking about it.”

“They’ll be crying in six months when interest rates are a lot lower,” she said.

Bond duration is a measure of a bond’s sensitivity to interest rate changes. Duration is expressed in years, and factors in the coupon, time to maturity and yield paid through the term.

Short-duration bonds — with a term of perhaps a few years or less — generally pay lower returns but carry less risk.

Investors may need to raise their duration (and risk) to keep yield in the same ballpark as it has been for the past two or so years, advisors said. Duration of five to 10 years is probably OK for many investors right now, Sun said.

Advisors generally don’t recommend tweaking stock-bond allocations, however.

But investors may wish to allocate more future contributions to different types of stocks, Sun said.

For example, stocks of utility and home-improvement companies tend to perform better when interest rates fall, she said.

Asset categories like real estate investment trusts, preferred stock and small-cap stocks also tend to do well in such an environment, Jenkin said.

Personal Finance

Why Trump’s tax plans could be ‘complicated’ in 2025, policy experts say

Published

9 minutes ago

November 19, 2024

Business Finance News

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with House Republicans at the Hyatt Regency hotel in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 13, 2024.

Allison Robbert | Via Reuters

Congressional lawmakers will soon debate expiring tax breaks and new promises from President-elect Donald Trump.

Agreeing on cuts and spending, however, could be a challenge.

With a majority in the House of Representatives and Senate, Republican lawmakers can pass sweeping tax legislation through “reconciliation,” which bypasses the Senate filibuster. Republicans could begin the budget reconciliation process during Trump’s first 100 days in office.

But choosing priorities could be difficult, particularly amid the federal budget deficit, policy experts said Tuesday at a Brookings Institution event in Washington.

Legislators will be “representing their districts, not their party,” Howard Gleckman, a senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, said Tuesday in a panel discussion at the Brookings event.

“This is a lot more complicated than just the reds against the blues,” he said.

‘Political divisions’ could be a barrier

With a slim majority in Congress, Republican lawmakers will soon negotiate with several blocks within their party. Some of these groups have competing priorities.

Enacted by Trump in 2017, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, is a key priority for the next administration.

Without action from Congress, trillions of tax breaks from the TCJA will expire after 2025. These include lower tax brackets, higher standard deductions, a more generous child tax credit, bigger estate and gift tax exemption, and a 20% tax break for pass-through businesses, among other provisions.

The more things you try to bring in, the more potential political divisions we have to navigate.

Molly Reynolds

senior fellow in Governance Studies at Brookings Institution

Tax bill could take longer than expected

Since budget reconciliation involves multiple steps, policy experts say the Republican tax bill could take months.

Plus, Congress has until Dec. 20 to fund the government and avoid a shutdown. A stopgap bill could push the deadline to January or March, which could take time from Trump’s tax priorities.

“The idea that they’re going to do this in 100 days, I think, is foolish,” Gleckman said. “My over-under is Dec. 31, 2025, and that might be optimistic.”

However, the bill could get through by Oct. 1, 2025, which closes the federal government’s fiscal year, other policy experts say.

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Personal Finance

Why it helps to file early

Published

2 hours ago

November 19, 2024

Business Finance News

We are overly reliant on student loans to fund higher education, says NACAC CEO Angel Perez

This week, the new Free Application for Federal Student Aid expanded its “phased rollout” so all students can now apply for aid for the upcoming academic year.

Up until Monday, the 2025-26 FAFSA was only available to limited groups of students in a series of beta tests that began on Oct. 1.

Now, the form is open to all and the Department of Education has said it will be out of testing entirely by Nov. 22 — which puts the official launch ahead of schedule.

Typically, all students have access to the coming academic year’s form in October, but last year’s new simplified form wasn’t available until late December after a monthslong delay.

This year, the plan was to be available to all students and contributors on or before Dec. 1.

Students who submit a form during this final “expanded beta” phase before Nov. 22 will not need to submit a subsequent 2025–26 FAFSA form, the education department said.

There are still some issues with the new form, some of which also plagued last year’s college aid application cycle, but they all have workarounds, according to higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

Altogether, this year’s rollout is “much better than last year,” he said.

Last year, complications with the new form resulted in some students not applying at all. Ultimately, that meant fewer students went on to college.

Why it’s important to file the FAFSA early

“Students should take full advantage of the early rollout and submit their FAFSA as soon as possible,” said Shaan Patel, the CEO and founder of Prep Expert, which provides Scholastic Aptitude Test and American College Test preparation courses.

The earlier families fill out the form, the better their chances are of receiving aid, since some financial aid is awarded on a first-come, first-served basis, or from programs with limited funds.

“The earlier you apply, the better your chances of securing more aid that doesn’t need to be repaid,” Patel said.

“Submitting early also means you’ll receive your financial aid award letters sooner,” he said. “This gives you ample time to compare offers from different schools and make an informed decision without feeling rushed. Finally, knowing your child’s financial aid status earlier reduces stress and allows your family to focus on other important aspects of college preparation.”

For many students, financial aid is key.

Higher education already costs more than most families can afford, and college costs are still rising. Tuition and fees plus room and board for a four-year private college averaged $58,600 in the 2024-25 school year, up from $56,390 a year earlier. At four-year, in-state public colleges, it was $24,920, up from $24,080, the College Board found.

The FAFSA serves as the gateway to all federal aid money, including federal student loans, work-study and especially grants — which have become the most crucial kind of assistance because they typically do not need to be repaid.

Submitting a FAFSA is also one of the best predictors of whether a high school senior will go on to college, according to the National College Attainment Network. Seniors who complete the FAFSA are 84% more likely to enroll in college directly after high school, according to an NCAN study of 2013 data.

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Personal Finance

89% of Americans do not consider themselves wealthy, Fidelity finds

Published

5 hours ago

November 19, 2024

Business Finance News

Why so many young adults are still living with their parents

Inflation is cooling and wages are rising. Yet, few Americans — including millionaires — feel confident about their financial standing.

Across all income and asset levels, 89% of Americans said they do not consider themselves wealthy, according to Fidelity Investments’ State of Wealth Mobility study. Fidelity polled 1,900 adults in August.

“Only one-tenth of Americans consider themselves wealthy today — despite many having considerable wealth,” said Rich Compson, head of wealth solutions at Fidelity Investments.

For most Americans, the definition of what it means to be wealthy is relatively modest, with 71% saying being wealthy is simply the ability to not have to live paycheck to paycheck.

Roughly 57% said wealth also entails traveling and taking vacations, while 56% said it’s being able to pass down money to the next generation.

Nearly half — 49% — said feeling wealthy meant the ability to own a home, Fidelity found.

For high-net worth individuals, or those with $1 million or more in savings and investable assets not including real estate or retirement funds, more households associated wealth with traveling and fewer said a major criterion for feeling wealthy was not living paycheck to paycheck.

Surprisingly, the same share — 49% — said being wealthy meant owning a home.

Obstacles to feeling wealthy

Housing affordability has become a major hurdle.

High home prices and higher mortgage rates along with low inventory have put ownership just out of reach for many households.

One “silver lining” is that affordability has improved somewhat since October 2023, when mortgage rates were near 8%, according to a new analysis by Freddie Mac.

Jose Luis Pelaez Inc | Digitalvision | Getty Images

Although vacationing has also gotten more expensive, Americans are still determined to travel.

Travel spending among households continues to outpace its pre-pandemic levels, some reports show.

However, concerns about high prices are playing a larger role in keeping some would-be vacationers home. Those that are travelling have had to adjust their budgets accordingly, spending roughly 10% more compared to 2023, according to another study by Deloitte.

Rising debt is another threat to wealth

At the same time, rising consumer debt has weighed on household balance sheets. Nearly half, 44%, of Americans said credit card debt is the biggest threat to their ability to build wealth, according to a separate report by Edelman Financial Engines.

Americans now owe a record $1.17 trillion on their credit cards, and the average balance per consumer stands at $6,329, up 4.8% year over year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and TransUnion, respectively.

“High interest rate credit card debt, more than other sorts of debt, is a savings killer, because when you have it, you have to feed the beast. You can’t save, you can’t invest,” Jean Chatzky, personal finance expert and CEO of HerMoney.com, told CNBC in September.

“That stands in the way of people building actual wealth and therefore feeling wealthier,” she said.

What it would take to feel rich

Most people — roughly 65% of those polled — said they would need $1 million in the bank to consider themselves wealthy, although 28% said it would take at least $2 million and 19% put the bar at $5 million or more, Edelman Financial Engines found.

Among current millionaires, 68% said they would need at least $3 million and 40% said feeling wealthy would require $5 million of more.

Edelman Financial Engines polled more than 3,000 adults over age 30 from June 12 to July 3, including 1,500 affluent Americans with household assets between $500,000 and $3 million.

When it comes to their salary, 58% of all of those surveyed said they would need to earn $100,000 on average to not worry about everyday living expenses, and a quarter said they would need to earn more than $200,000 to feel financially secure.

In most cases, feeling financially secure is not based on how much you earn, but rather a commitment to save more than you spend, maintain a well-diversified portfolio and work with a financial advisor, experts often say.

“Having confidence in being able to invest strategically is what often separates those who feel they are wealthy from those who don’t,” said Fidelity’s Compson. “Improved confidence starts with education and planning.”

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