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How mortgage rates have influenced the spring housing market

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Rates will keep ‘buyers and sellers on their toes’

“The biggest thing when we’re looking at mortgage rates right now is volatility,” said Nicole Bachaud, a senior economist at Zillow Group.

While some buyers have come to terms with 7% interest rates, the volatility of rates is “really the thing that’s going to impact the [housing] market the most,” Bachaud said.

When rates bounce around from week to week, a buyer looking into a house one day might not be able to afford the same property the next day, she said.

The swinging movement of rates is “going to keep buyers and sellers on their toes for longer than expected,” Bachaud explained.

For example, a homebuyer hoping to secure a $400,000, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage might have gotten a rate of about 6.82% in early April, according to Freddie Mac and Fed data. That works out to a monthly mortgage payment of around $2,613. Two weeks later, rates were hovering at 7.10%. That slightly higher rate adds $75 to the monthly mortgage payment, or $27,000 over the life of the loan.

Even a 1 percentage point difference may not sound like much, but it can mean almost $200 more on a monthly mortgage payment, said Jacob Channel, a senior economist at LendingTree.

Would-be buyers are paying attention to the math. For the week ended April 19, the mortgage application demand dropped 2.7% compared with a week earlier, as average 30-year fixed-rate mortgages jumped from 7.13% to 7.24%, according to recent data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.

The spring housing market is ‘getting back to normal’

“The spring housing market this year is somewhat getting back to normal,” Bachaud said.

Some areas are experiencing more sales with buyers getting used to the higher rates and looking for ways to make it work, she said.

Even so, more sales are expected to happen at the end of May and early June, she said.

That’s also when sellers tend to get the best prices. To that point, in 2023, homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home, according to an earlier Zillow analysis.

“I’d say we’d probably also see a later spring season this year,” Bachaud said.

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How to know if a rental listing is a scam, fraud experts say

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It’s exciting to find a new place to rent in your neighborhood or in a new city. That is, of course, unless you get duped.

In so-called rental listing scams, scammers will make up listings that aren’t available for rent or simply do not exist in order to fraudulently take your money, according to the Federal Trade Commission. Scammers will often ask for payments like an application fee, a security deposit, the first month’s rent or a mix of such charges.

“Once the payment is sent, the [so-called] landlord or listing person … disappears,” said John Breyault, vice president of public policy, telecommunications and fraud at the National Consumers League, a consumer advocacy group.

Potential tenants lose cash to rental scams

It’s not uncommon for individuals to fall victim to fraudulent rental listings, experts say.

About 9,521 real estate fraud complaints were filed in 2023, resulting in more than $145 million in losses, according to the latest Internet Crime Report by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Those figures are down from 11,727 victims and more than $396 million in losses in 2022. 

The agency defined real estate fraud as a loss of funds from a real estate investment or fraud involving a rental or timeshare property.

While it’s convenient to look for a new rental online, experts urge future renters to be cautious, as you may lose hundreds to thousands of dollars if not careful.

For example: Let’s say you fall for a scam that asked for a security deposit — which is often the equivalent to a month’s rent — the first month’s rent upfront, or both. Nationwide, the median monthly rent was $1,373 in December, according to Apartment List.

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A separate report by Rently, a leasing automation platform, found that 62% of respondents who experienced a rental scam lost more than $500, with 48% losing more than $1,000. A smaller share, 8%, were duped out of more than $5,000, according to the report.

The survey polled 500 U.S. adults in November who have rented an apartment, condo or house over the past five years and have either experienced or are aware of rental scams and fraud.

If you need a new place to rent this year, here are some things to watch for to determine if a rental listing is a scam and what to do, according to experts.

4 red flags to watch out for

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Experts say if you’re contacted via text message or a phone call for a rental listing, look at the phone number’s area code. If it’s outside your area, be careful.

If you get an email, take a look at the sender’s address. Does the address contain multiple characters like a mix of letters, numbers and varied punctuation marks or symbols? Or is it coming from a personal account like a Gmail or Yahoo, but poses as a company email? If the answer to either is “yes,” delete it right away, Kitten Goldberg said.

2. Unusual forms of payment required

If the so-called landlord or listing agent requests you to pay an application fee or the first month’s rent through a wire transfer, a gift card or through cryptocurrency, that is “a huge red flag,” Breyault said.

Also be wary if they request a payment through payment apps like Apple Pay, CashApp, PayPal and Zelle, per the Federal Trade Commission.

“What all of those payment methods have in common is that the money goes from you to the recipient nearly instantaneously,” Breyault said. The transactions are often irreversible, even if you determine that it was a fraudulent payment.

Federal laws regarding compensation under fraudulent losses often don’t apply to such transactions, he said. Therefore, if you’re met with these payment options from the so-called listing agent or landlord, stop the application process in its tracks.

3. Refusing to meet or show the property in person

“You should always meet these people face-to-face before you fill out any kind of paperwork,” Kitten Goldberg said, as well as tour the property.

If a landlord or listing agent makes up excuses about why they can’t meet you in person or why you can’t see the rental property in person, that alone should be a red flag, Breyault said.

If you’re out of town or moving to a new city and do not have the ability to vet the apartment yourself, request a virtual tour of the space, experts say. If possible, ask a friend or relative to visit the property for you. 

“That’s really the litmus test to find out if an apartment is for real or not,” Breyault said.

4. Unusually low asking price

If a rental listing is “priced unusually low” compared to similar properties in an area, be careful, Breyault said.

“The reason scammers put listings like that up is because they know that it will attract a lot of eyeballs and potential victims,” he said.

Make sure to compare the listing price to others in your city or area of interest, and be wary of offer that may be too good to be true, Breyault said.

“Do bargains exist? Absolutely, but so do a lot of scams,” Breyault said.

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Vanguard’s $106 million TDF settlement offers a key lesson about taxes

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There’s an important lesson for investors in Vanguard Group’s recent $106 million settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission over its target-date funds: Being mindful of your investment account type can save you from a big tax bill in certain cases.

Vanguard, the largest target-date fund manager, agreed to pay the sum for alleged “misleading statements” over the tax consequences of reducing the asset minimum for a low-cost version of its Target Retirement Funds.

Lowering the asset minimum for its lower-cost Institutional share class — to $5 million from $100 million — triggered an exodus of investors to these funds, according to the SEC. That created “historically larger capital gains distributions and tax liabilities” for many investors who remained in the more-expensive Investor share class, the agency said.

Here’s where the lesson applies: Those taxes were only borne by investors who held the TDFs in taxable brokerage accounts, not retirement accounts.

Tax Tip: 401(K) limits for 2025

Investors who hold investments — whether a TDF or otherwise — in a tax-advantaged account like a 401(k) plan or individual retirement accounts don’t receive annual tax bills for capital gains or income distributions.

Those who hold “tax inefficient” assets — like many bond funds, actively managed funds and target-date funds — in a taxable account may get hit with a big unwelcome tax bill in any given year, experts said.

Placing such assets in retirement accounts can make a big difference when it comes to boosting net investment returns after taxes, especially for high earners, experts said.

“By having to pull money out of your coffers to pay the tax bill, it leaves less in your portfolio to compound and grow,” said Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning at Morningstar.

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Vanguard neither admitted nor denied wrongdoing in its settlement agreement with the SEC.

“Vanguard is committed to supporting the more than 50 million everyday investors and retirement savers who entrust us with their savings,” a company spokesperson wrote in an e-mailed statement. “We’re pleased to have reached this settlement and look forward to continuing to serve our investors with world-class investment options.”

Vanguard held about $1.3 trillion of assets in target-date funds at the end of 2023, according to Morningstar.

What’s best in a retirement account

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The concept of strategically holding stocks, bonds and other assets in certain account types to boost after-tax returns is known as “asset location.”

It’s a “key consideration” for high earners, Benz said.

Such investors are more likely to reach annual contribution limits for tax-sheltered retirement accounts, and therefore need to also save in taxable accounts, she said. They’re more likely to be in a higher tax bracket, too.

While most middle-class savers predominantly invest in retirement accounts, in which tax efficiency is a “non-issue,” there are certain non-retirement goals — perhaps saving for a down payment on a house a few years down the road — for which taxable accounts make more sense, Benz said.

Using an asset location strategy can raise annual after-tax returns by 0.14 to 0.41 percentage points for conservative investors (who invest more in bonds) in the mid to high income tax brackets, according to recent research by Charles Schwab.

Crypto in a 401(K) plan

“A retired couple with a $2 million portfolio [$1 million in a taxable account and $1 million in a tax advantaged account] could potentially see a reduction in tax drag that equates to an additional $2,800 to $8,200 per year depending on their tax bracket,” Hayden Adams, a certified public accountant, certified financial planner, and director of tax and wealth management at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, wrote of the findings.

Tax inefficient assets — which are better suited to retirement accounts — are ones that “generate regular taxable events,” Adams wrote.

Here are some examples, according to experts:

  • Bonds and bond funds. Bond income is generally taxed at ordinary income tax rates, instead of preferential capital-gains rates. (There are exceptions, like municipal bonds.)
  • Actively managed investment funds. These generally have higher turnover due to frequent buying and selling of securities within the fund. They therefore tend to generate more taxable distributions than index funds, and those distributions are shared among all fund shareholders.
  • Real estate investment trusts. REITs must distribute at least 90% of their income to shareholders, Adams wrote.
  • Short-term holdings. The profit on investments held for a year or less are taxed at short-term capital gains rates, for which the preferential tax rates for “long term” capital gains don’t apply.
  • Target-date funds. These and other funds that aim for a target asset allocation are a “bad bet” for taxable accounts, Benz said. They often hold tax inefficient assets like bonds and may need to sell appreciated securities to maintain their target allocation, she said.

About 90% of the potential additional after-tax return from asset location comes from two moves: switching to municipal bonds (instead of taxable bonds) in taxable accounts, and switching to index stock funds in taxable accounts and active stock funds in tax-advantaged accounts, Adams wrote.

Investors with municipal bonds or municipal money market funds avoid federal income tax on their distributions.

Exchange-traded funds also distribute capital gains to investors much less often than mutual funds, and may therefore make sense in taxable accounts, experts said.

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Now is an ‘ideal time’ to reassess your retirement savings, expert says

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When it comes to retirement savings, surveys often point to a big magic number you will need to have set aside to live well.

Yet retirement experts say to focus on another number — your personal savings rate — to make sure you achieve your retirement savings goals.

“Early in the year is an ideal time to reassess your retirement contributions and overall savings strategy because you can take advantage of any employer matches, adjust your monthly budget accordingly and stay ahead of potential market shifts,” said Douglas Boneparth, a certified financial planner and president and founder of Bone Fide Wealth, a wealth management firm based in New York City.

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What’s more, increasing your retirement savings now gives your money more time to compound — earning interest on both your contributions and previously earned interest. That can “significantly impact your nest egg over the long term,” said Boneparth, who is also a member of the CNBC FA Council.

Boost your 401(k) deferral rate

If you have a 401(k) plan through your employer, now is a great time to look at your contribution rate, according to Mike Shamrell, vice president of thought leadership at Fidelity.

Most importantly, see how your savings rate corresponds to what your employer offers in terms of a company match, he said.

“It’s the closest thing a lot of people get to free money,” Shamrell said.

Oftentimes, companies have a match formula. If you’re not clear on how much you need to contribute to get the full match, contact your human resources department or 401(k) provider, Shamrell said.

How to do a financial reset

Fidelity recommends saving at least 15% of your pre-tax income annually, including your contributions and money from your employer.

If you’re not quite there — or you want to save even more — even just a 1% increase in your deferral rate can make a big difference to your retirement savings over time, Shamrell said.

“It may not have the significant impact on your take-home pay that you that you may be envisioning,” Shamrell said.

Fund your IRA for 2025 — and 2024

Revisit your investment allocations

In 2024, the average 401(k) balance grew about 11%, thanks to soaring stock markets, according to Shamrell.

Heading into the rest of 2025, now is a great time to revisit your personal asset allocations.

“Make sure your allocation didn’t drift too far into equities and that you don’t have more exposure to equities than you might realize,” Shamrell said.

If you’re worried about picking the wrong investment, you can instead opt for target date, asset allocation or balanced funds, which help decide how your funds are allotted for you, according to Marguerita Cheng, a certified financial planner and CEO of Blue Ocean Global Wealth in Gaithersburg, Maryland.

Also be sure to consider to your risk capacity — the amount of risk you can afford — as well as risk tolerance — the amount of risk you’re willing to take, said Cheng, who is also a member of the CNBC FA Council.

Identifying those personal limits ahead of time can help you stay the course during market turbulence, she said. Investors who bail during the market’s worst days may miss the best days, which often closely follow, research finds.

If you’ve had any major recent life events — gotten married, bought a house or had a baby, for example — you may also want to check that your allocations still correspond to your long-term plans, Shamrell said.

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