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How to prevent AI from further widening the racial wealth gap

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Human resources and technology concept for AI augmenting team work.

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The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has been stunning in both its speed and impact. According to data from Goldman Sachs, investment in AI is expected to reach $100 billion in the U.S. and $200 billion globally by next year. Last year, in private equity alone, generative AI (GenAI) investments reached $2.18 billion – double from the year before.

Yet, while we often hear about the boundless promise of AI – as we should – we also need to pay more attention to the careers, lives and communities it will disrupt, including those who have so far been left out. For example, according to a recent McKinsey study, Black Americans are 10% more likely to be working jobs slated for AI automation. In addition, the same study anticipates that AI will disrupt 4.5 million jobs for Black workers. This disruption has the potential to impact billions of dollars in Black economic potential and growth. If current trends hold, the new wealth created by GenAI alone will increase the racial wealth gap by $43 billion annually, according to McKinsey.

We have already seen firsthand how the rapid adoption of technology can exacerbate gaps and create new divides. One only needs to look at the creation and adoption of computers and the internet. In 1987, economist Robert Solow famously claimed that “you can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.” Today, we almost take for granted how much productivity the digital age has brought. But, that digital age has also created a digital divide, which exacerbates racial economic gaps. And, one of the legacies of failing to address this digital divide and ensure broadband access to Black and other communities without access to resources and opportunities has been limited engagement with these tools.

How to prevent the another wealth gap

As we stand at the beginning of this next revolution in AI and its early waves of value creation, our urgent task is to prevent another gap. We can do that by empowering all people to take part and be leaders in this evolving field, allowing our economy to reap greater benefits. That begins with infrastructure that supports AI enablement for all, including education on AI tools, access to the internet and power to compute.

One model for this is the work being done by Student Freedom Initiative (SFI). As a first step, we must commit to eliminating the existing digital broadband divide. SFI has been working hard to close the digital divide in Black communities, including Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs), 82% of which reside in broadband deserts. This is a critical gap that must be closed to provide the next generation of diverse leaders with the resources, education and technical access needed to master this evolving tech.

We must also double our efforts to provide education around these tools. A combination of critical thinking and technical skills is increasingly becoming a prerequisite for effectively interacting with GenAI. Our education system, particularly secondary and higher education institutions, must play a key role in equipping students with these essential skills.

In partnership with Stats Perform, a global leader in AI solutions for the sports industry and a portfolio company of my global investment firm, Vista Equity Partners, SFI launched an “AI in Basketball” course at Morehouse College last year. This course provided hands-on instruction in AI-use cases, which helped prepare those students to be leaders in this field. It also offered students internship opportunities to use what they learned in a real-world setting, allowing them to build experience and competitive resumes for AI careers. Soon, we will be expanding these courses to other HBCUs, creating on-ramps to this growing industry. 

Another notable example of this is the work being done at internXL, which offers opportunities like free training and certifications in artificial intelligence, data science, and machine learning, including access to over 500 AI training courses. The internXL initiative also connects highly-qualified HBCU students with AI experts and employers for internships, enabling them to gain practical experience in the field. And internships are critical – studies show that an internship at a hiring organization, or in the same field, are among the highest differentiators used in choosing between qualified candidates. This work is bridging access gaps and ensuring that underrepresented talent thrives in the rapidly growing and in-demand field of AI.

Finally, we must also ensure widespread access to compute, or processing power, to run these new tools and their applications. If we use the example of smartphones, compute was made possible thanks to telecommunication organizations updating their infrastructure to handle 4G, 5G and LTE – all of which have been underinvested in across Black communities. If we want to fully harness the potential impact of AI on our economy, all communities need to have access to these tools and the infrastructure that underpins the technology. This includes computing power, requisite energy sources, and large language models and other machine learning and reasoning tools.

Economic toll

We know that the racial wealth gap will cost the U.S. economy $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion between 2019 and 2028. Imagine what it would mean for the economy if we took steps to prevent AI from becoming a new economic wedge, and it, instead, became a prolific source of generational wealth. What if we were able to ensure access to these tools for communities around the globe? So long as we take appropriate steps to prevent these tools from mimicking and reinforcing racial biases, the innovation and economic growth this would spur has the potential to close many gaps, generating prosperity for all.

With AI’s current trajectory, there will be three distinct waves of opportunity through which value will be captured. We are already seeing the first wave of value creation benefiting hardware vendors. The second wave will go to super scalers like Microsoft, Google, Oracle and other large companies that have the ability to broadly offer connectivity to compute. The third wave will benefit enterprise software vendors who provide AI and GenAI solution sets on top of their existing products. These are three distinct verticals where we must focus our equity efforts to impact the long-term growth of AI and GenAI.

The good news is that, unlike the digital revolution, we have the luxury of foresight. As AI evolves and established companies and new start-ups scale products, develop features and capture value at each stage, we must commit ourselves to ensuring that everyone has access to the incredible benefits of AI. If we fall short, we will not be equipped, nor able, to fully harness and unlock its potential. As we stand at these crossroads, we must think expansively and act decisively to ensure we build the infrastructure to support AI and GenAI enablement.

Robert F. Smith is the founder, chairman and CEO of Vista Equity Partners. He serves as chairman of Student Freedom Initiative (SFI) and Carnegie Hall, founding director and president of the Fund II Foundation and co-lead of Southern Communities Initiative (SCI). In 2019, Smith eliminated the student debt of approximately 400 Morehouse College graduates and was named one of TIME 100’s Most Influential People in 2020.

Economics

Germany’s election will usher in new leadership — but might not change its economy

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Production at the VW plant in Emden.

Sina Schuldt | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

The struggling German economy has been a major talking point among critics of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ government during the latest election campaign — but analysts warn a new leadership might not turn these tides.

As voters prepare to head to the polls, it is now all but certain that Germany will soon have a new chancellor. The Christian Democratic Union’s Friedrich Merz is the firm favorite.

Merz has not shied away from blasting Scholz’s economic policies and from linking them to the lackluster state of Europe’s largest economy. He argues that a government under his leadership would give the economy the boost it needs.

Experts speaking to CNBC were less sure.

“There is a high risk that Germany will get a refurbished economic model after the elections, but not a brand new model that makes the competition jealous,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, told CNBC.

The CDU/CSU economic agenda

The CDU, which on a federal level ties up with regional sister party the Christian Social Union, is running on a “typical economic conservative program,” Brzeski said.

It includes income and corporate tax cuts, fewer subsidies and less bureaucracy, changes to social benefits, deregulation, support for innovation, start-ups and artificial intelligence and boosting investment among other policies, according to CDU/CSU campaigners.

“The weak parts of the positions are that the CDU/CSU is not very precise on how it wants to increase investments in infrastructure, digitalization and education. The intention is there, but the details are not,” Brzeski said, noting that the union appears to be aiming to revive Germany’s economic model without fully overhauling it.

“It is still a reform program which pretends that change can happen without pain,” he said.

Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of forecasting at research institute DIW Berlin, noted that the CDU is also looking to reach gross domestic product growth of around 2% again through its fiscal and economic program called “Agenda 2030.”

But reaching such levels of economic expansion in Germany “seems unrealistic,” not just temporarily, but also in the long run, she told CNBC.

Germany’s GDP declined in both 2023 and 2024. Recent quarterly growth readings have also been teetering on the verge of a technical recession, which has so far been narrowly avoided. The German economy shrank by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, compared with the previous three-month stretch, according to the latest reading.

Europe’s largest economy faces pressure in key industries like the auto sector, issues with infrastructure like the country’s rail network and a housebuilding crisis.

Dany-Knedlik also flagged the so-called debt brake, a long-standing fiscal rule that is enshrined in Germany’s constitution, which limits the size of the structural budget deficit and how much debt the government can take on.

Whether or not the clause should be overhauled has been a big part of the fiscal debate ahead of the election. While the CDU ideally does not want to change the debt brake, Merz has said that he may be open to some reform.

“To increase growth prospects substantially without increasing debt also seems rather unlikely,” DIW’s Dany-Knedlik said, adding that, if public investments were to rise within the limits of the debt brake, significant tax increases would be unavoidable.

“Taking into account that a 2 Percent growth target is to be reached within a 4 year legislation period, the Agenda 2030 in combination with conservatives attitude towards the debt break to me reads more of a wish list than a straight forward economic growth program,” she said.

Change in German government will deliver economic success, says CEO of German employers association

Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, sees some benefits to the plans of the CDU-CSU union, saying they would likely “be positive” for the economy, but warning that the resulting boost would be small.

“Tax cuts would support consumer spending and private investment, but weak sentiment means consumers may save a significant share of their additional after-tax income and firms may be reluctant to invest,” she told CNBC.  

Palmas nevertheless pointed out that not everyone would come away a winner from the new policies. Income tax cuts would benefit middle- and higher-income households more than those with a lower income, who would also be affected by potential reductions of social benefits.

Coalition talks ahead

Following the Sunday election, the CDU/CSU will almost certainly be left to find a coalition partner to form a majority government, with the Social Democratic Party or the Green party emerging as the likeliest candidates.

The parties will need to broker a coalition agreement outlining their joint goals, including on the economy — which could prove to be a difficult undertaking, Capital Economics’ Palmas said.

“The CDU and the SPD and Greens have significantly different economic policy positions,” she said, pointing to discrepancies over taxes and regulation. While the CDU/CSU want to reduce both items, the SPD and Greens seek to raise taxes and oppose deregulation in at least some areas, Palmas explained.

The group is nevertheless likely to hold the power in any potential negotiations as it will likely have their choice between partnering with the SPD or Greens.

“Accordingly, we suspect that the coalition agreement will include most of the CDU’s main economic proposals,” she said.

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