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IMF hikes UK growth outlook amid lower inflation and interest rates

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General view of the City of London skyline, the capital’s financial district, in October.

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LONDON — The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its 2024 growth outlook for the United Kingdom, saying declines in interest rates and inflation would boost domestic demand.

The IMF now sees 1.1% growth for the U.K. economy this year, up from a July forecast of 0.7%. The agency also reiterated its forecast for a 1.5% expansion in 2025.

Inflation in the U.K. came in at 1.7% in September, a decline from 11.1% in October 2022. Lower rates of services inflation and wage growth have led economists over the last week to forecast a faster pace of interest rate cuts from the Bank of England, forecasting the central bank will take its key rate from 5.25% at the start of the year to 4.5% by the end of 2024.

Economic growth has been tepid so far this year, coming in at 0.2% in August after flatlining in June and July.

China must reform pensions and support property sector if consumer confidence is to return, says IMF MD

The IMF’s brighter outlook comes as the country braces for the center-left Labour Party to this month deliver its first budget in 14 years. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has warned that the package will contain “tough” decisions in order to fill what he claims is a looming £22 billion ($28.5 billion) financing shortfall — a figure disputed by his predecessors in the Conservative Party — after Labour committed to slash net borrowing.

While Starmer has ruled out increases to some major taxes, including on income and corporations, a broader package of tax hikes is anticipated. Uncertainty over the budget weighed on consumer confidence readings in August, though the S&P Global UK Consumer Sentiment Index released Monday showed households were slightly more optimistic about their finances and more willing to make large purchases.

“It’s welcome that the IMF have upgraded our growth forecast for this year, but I know there is more work to do,” Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, who took office in July, said Tuesday. Labour has previously pledged to secure the highest sustained growth in the G7 group of nations and make higher growth the core focus of its policymaking.

On Tuesday, the IMF also trimmed its 2024 growth outlook for the euro zone to 0.8% from 0.9% previously, forecasting stagnation in the bloc’s biggest economy Germany. Analysts flag a multitude of challenges facing the German economy, including intense competition for the country’s autos and wider manufacturing products, along with higher energy prices and macro uncertainty weighing on its industrial production.

Among other so-called “advanced economies,” the IMF forecasts economic expansion of 2.8% in the U.S., 1.3% in Canada and just 0.3% in Japan, which has suffered from weak demand this year amid high inflation.

Economics

Donald Trump has many ways to hurt Elon Musk

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THERE WAS a time, not long ago, when an important skill for journalists was translating the code in which powerful people spoke about each other. Carefully prepared speeches and other public remarks would be dissected for hints about the arguments happening in private. Among Donald Trump’s many achievements is upending this system. In his administration people seem to say exactly what they think at any given moment. Wild threats are made—to end habeas corpus; to take Greenland by force—without any follow-through. Journalists must now try to guess what is real and what is for show.

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Economics

Donald Trump has many ways to hurt Elon Musk

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THERE WAS a time, not long ago, when an important skill for journalists was translating the code in which powerful people spoke about each other. Carefully prepared speeches and other public remarks would be dissected for hints about the arguments happening in private. Among Donald Trump’s many achievements is upending this system. In his administration people seem to say exactly what they think at any given moment. Wild threats are made—to end habeas corpus; to take Greenland by force—without any follow-through. Journalists must now try to guess what is real and what is for show.

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Economics

Jobs report May 2025:

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U.S. payrolls increased 139,000 in May, more than expected; unemployment at 4.2%

Hiring decreased just slightly in May even as consumers and companies braced against tariffs and a potentially slowing economy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 139,000 for the month, above the muted Dow Jones estimate for 125,000 and a bit below the downwardly revised 147,000 that the U.S. economy added in April.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. A more encompassing measure that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed also was unchanged, holding at 7.8%.

Worker pay grew more than expected, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% during the month and 3.9% from a year ago, compared with respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%.

“Stronger than expected jobs growth and stable unemployment underlines the resilience of the US labor market in the face of recent shocks,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

Nearly half the job growth came from health care, which added 62,000, even higher than its average gain of 44,000 over the past year. Leisure and hospitality contributed 48,000 while social assistance added 16,000.

On the downside, government lost 22,000 jobs as efforts to cull the federal workforce by President Donald Trump and the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency began to show an impact.

Stock market futures jumped higher after the release as did Treasury yields.

Though the May numbers were better than expected, there were some underlying trouble spots.

The April count was revised lower by 30,000, while March’s total came down by 65,000 to 120,000.

There also were disparities between the establishment survey, which is used to generate the headline payrolls gain, and the household survey, which is used for the unemployment rate. The latter count, generally more volatile than the establishment survey, showed a decrease of 696,000 workers. Full-time workers declined by 623,000, while part-timers rose by 33,000.

“The May jobs report still has everyone waiting for the other shoe to drop,” said Daniel Zhao, lead economist at job rating site Glassdoor. “This report shows the job market standing tall, but as economic headwinds stack up cumulatively, it’s only a matter of time before the job market starts straining against those headwinds.”

The report comes against a teetering economic background, complicated by Trump’s tariffs and an ever-changing variable of how far he will go to try to level the global playing field for American goods.

Most indicators show that the economy is still a good distance from recession. But sentiment surveys indicate high degrees of anxiety from both consumers and business leaders as they brace for the ultimate impact of how much tariffs will slow business activity and increase inflation.

For their part, Federal Reserve officials are viewing the current landscape with caution.

The central bank holds its next policy meeting in less than two weeks, with markets largely expecting the Fed to stay on hold regarding interest rates. In recent speeches, policymakers have indicated greater concern with the potential for tariff-induced inflation.

“With the Fed laser-focused on managing the risks to the inflation side of its mandate, today’s stronger than expected jobs report will do little to alter its patient approach,” said Rosner, the Goldman Sachs strategist.

Friday also marks the final day before Fed officials head into their quiet period before the meeting, when they do not issue policy remarks.

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