A security guard stands outside the building near signs advertising the International Monetary Fund/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 17, 2025.
Jim Watson | AFP | Getty Images
The International Monetary Fund forecasts U.S. tariffs will help lower the country’s fiscal deficit a touch in 2025 even as the U.S. growth and inflation outlooks worsen thanks to an intensifying trade war.
The 191-nation’s Fiscal Monitor report released Wednesday projects the U.S.’s overall federal deficit will fall to 6.5% of gross domestic product this year, down from 7.3% in 2024.
The narrower gap between spending and revenue is “contingent on higher tariff revenues,” according to the report.
The level was calculated based on the IMF’s “reference point” forecasts, which account for tariff announcements made as of April 4. This includes the U.S.’s reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2, but excludes subsequent rollouts such as the 90-day pause on higher rates and the exemption on smartphones, semiconductors and other technology goods.
Against this backdrop, the deficit is estimated to fall to 5.6% of GDP in the medium term as revenues rise 0.7%, according to the IMF.
Uncertain revenue
To be sure, the report noted “the magnitude of the tariff revenue increase is highly uncertain.”
One of the caveats to the reduced deficit projection is the degree to which tariffs will put downward pressure on imports into the U.S., itself dependent largely on how consumers respond to higher prices. This varies widely across products, the report noted.
Moreover, “the tariff schedule itself is uncertain and plays a crucial role,” the report continued.
The IMF acknowledged another risk to its forecast: whether tariffs lead to a wider slowdown in economic activity that could lead to a downturn in other segments of tax revenue — such as income tax — that offset higher revenues from tariffs.
“These projections are highly uncertain and do not account for measures under discussion in Congress, under budget reconciliation” negotiations, the fund said.
Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note have surged in recent weeks, last trading near 4.40%, as higher tariffs were announced, inflation forecasts raised and as the dollar declined.
If the total size of U.S. government debt continues to surge, the IMF thinks it will push up longer-term interest rates and the cost of financing the debt.
“Specifically, an increase of 10 percentage points of GDP in U.S. public debt between 2024 and 2029 could lead to a 60-basis-point rise in the 5-year forward to 10-year rate,” the IMF staff wrote. One basis point equals 1/100th of a percent, or 0.01.
Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange!
Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE, an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount.
As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12.
Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee.
You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor.
Consumer spending is rising at a faster clip this month as everyday Americans rush to make purchases before President Donald Trump’s full tariff plan takes effect, data released Wednesday from JPMorgan shows.
Spending through the first 15 days in April climbed about 3.8% from the same period a year ago, JPMorgan found. Spending in March increased about 2.7% from the comparable month a year ago.
The pickup in spending shouldn’t be construed as heralding faster economic growth, however. “April data may reflect a pullforward of discretionary spending on big-ticket items if consumers tried to lock in lower prices before tariffs went into effect,” JPMorgan analysts led by Richard Shane wrote to clients in a note on Wednesday.
Much of the April gain came from discretionary spending, which rose by 4.3% in the first 15 days year-over-year, versus 2.9% growth in non-discretionary spending.
Psychological impact
JPMorgan’s data offers early hard evidence of how Trump’s plan for steep tariffs on imports has affected the psyche of American consumers. While Trump placed many of his planned levies on a 90-day pause soon after announcing them, anecdotal reports show Main Street consumers bracing for what many view as a seismic shift in global trade.
To be sure, JPMorgan noted that some of the growth in spending may have also been tied to the Easter holiday, which fell almost three weeks later in 2025 than in 2024. The analysts also pointed to sliding gasoline prices as a possible driver of increased discretionary spending.
Still, the potential for some binge buying before the full effect of Trump’s tariff policy is felt has altered the short-term economic outlook for small business owners and policymakers alike.
At first, “activity might look artificially high … and then by the summer, might fall off — because people have bought it all,” Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Federal Reserve, recently told CBS in reference to the acceleration of spending by consumers trying to get ahead of tariffs. A temporary bump in spending may lead to a corresponding drop-off in spending during the summer, he said.
Inventory stockpile
Goolsbee also cited evidence of businesses stockpiling inventory to last two to three months and said so-called preemptive purchasing appeared more common among companies than consumers.
Shippers have front-loaded cargo heading to the U.S. to get ahead of any potential increase in taxes as a result of the tariffs, according to CNBC’s Supply Chain Survey. Products from China, which face a cumulative tariff rate of 145%, accounted for much of the cargo shippers were sending to the U.S. earlier than planned.
This idea of an expedited spending timeline by consumers is popping up on first-quarter corporate earnings calls, too, as Wall Street analysts study whether demand for products ranging from smartphones to automobiles could fall later.
AT&T finance chief Pascal Desroches said Wednesday that customers have upgraded devices at a faster clip than expected since Trump unveiled his tariff plan.
Capital One CEO Richard Fairbank told analysts on Tuesday that upticks in spending on electronics and cars looked like signs of consumers speeding up purchases before the full tariff plan goes into effect. Ally Financial CEO Michael Rhodes said last week that a pull-forward in used car purchases could account for what he called strong volume recently seen by the auto loan provider.
The historical record shows that an acceleration in spending to beat higher prices later on doesn’t amount to much over the long term. For example, Japanese consumers in 1997 rushed to buy before a consumption tax rose to 5%, and again in 2014 and 2015 before the tax climbed to 8% and 10%, respectively. Afterward, however, spending either fell or flat lined, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond study.
Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange!
Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE, an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount.
As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12.
Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
SOMETHING STRANGE happened on April 22nd. A top member of America’s cabinet announced big changes to his department—and it did not represent a MAGA-inspired overhaul. At a time when Donald Trump’s worst instincts are dominating public policy, it is notable that Marco Rubio’s reforms at the State Department resemble what might have come out of a conventional Republican administration.
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the media during the annual White House Easter Egg Roll, on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 21, 2025.
Leah Millis | Reuters
President Donald Trump’s public criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell has fueled concern that he will try to fire the central bank chief, but even that historic and legally questionable move may not be enough for Trump to bend monetary policy in his preferred direction.
Even firing Powell won’t necessarily get Trump the rate cuts he wants, according to multiple economists.
“In all likelihood, however, firing Powell would just be the first step in dismantling the Fed’s independence. If Trump is set on lowering interest rates then he will have to fire the other six Fed Board Members too, which would trigger a more severe market backlash, with the dollar falling and rates at the long end of the yield curve rising,” said Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, in a recent note.
Powell is chair of both the Fed board of governors and the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest rate policy. Ashworth pointed out that, while FOMC members usually choose to make the president-appointed board of governors chair to lead them, they can buck Trump and choose someone else as head of the rate-setting committee. And JPMorgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, said in a note Monday that “most of the power of the leadership stems from the historical deference” rather than the actual mechanics of the job.
Deutsche Bank senior economist Peter Sidorov echoed the idea that individual Fed members might vote against the wishes of a new leader if they feel Trump has overstepped.
“Note that while the Fed Chair has significant influence over the FOMC, monetary policy actions are taken by a majority vote so removing Powell could lead to increased pushback from other members against pressure on the Fed to deliver easier policy,” Sidorov said in a note to clients Tuesday.
This discussion on Wall Street comes after Trump has criticized Powell multiple times in recent days, including calling the Fed chair “a major loser” in a social media post Monday that rocked financial markets. White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said last week that the president and his team were exploring the possibility of removing the Fed chair.
It is unclear whether Trump even has the authority to remove Powell before his term as board of governors chair ends next year. Powell has previously said he does not believe it is legally allowed for the president to fire him. The Supreme Court is set to hear an appeal about Trump’s firing of board members at other federal organizations in a case that could shed light on what’s next for the Fed.
The speculation about changes at the Fed, along with the ongoing tariff uncertainty, appears to have hurt investor confidence in the United States. U.S. stocks, bonds and the dollar have all fallen in recent weeks.
Wall Street pros worry that changes at the Fed could lead to further sell-offs and fears of higher inflation.
“Any reduction in the independence of the Fed would add upside risks to an inflation outlook that is already subject to upward pressures from tariffs and somewhat elevated inflation expectations,” Feroli said in a note to clients.
“It has been hoped that these adverse consequences would dissuade the president from threatening Fed independence, though so far the president has often followed through on his intentions,” he added.
Personal Finance1 week ago
Economics1 week ago
Personal Finance1 week ago
Personal Finance1 week ago
Economics1 week ago
Economics1 week ago
Personal Finance1 week ago
Economics1 week ago