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IMF warns on China’s property market worsening

Published

6 months ago

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Chinese flags for sale on Nanjing East Road in Shanghai, China, on Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024.

Qilai Shen | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned of a possible worsening of the state of China’s property market as it trimmed its growth expectations for the world’s second-largest economy.

In a report published Tuesday, the IMF trimmed its forecast for growth in China for this year to 4.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than in its July projection. In 2025, growth is expected to come in at 4.5%, according to the IMF.

The Washington, D.C.-based organization also highlighted that China’s property sector contracting by more than expected is one of many downside risks for the global economic outlook.

“Conditions for the real estate market could worsen, with further price corrections taking place amid a contraction in sales and investment,” the report said.

Historical property crises in other countries like Japan (in the 1990s) and the U.S. (in 2008) show that unless the crisis in China is addressed, prices could correct further, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook noted. This in turn could send consumer confidence lower and reduce household consumption and domestic demand, the agency explained.

China's economic stimulus measures 'going in the right direction,' IMF chief economist says

China has announced the introduction of various measures aimed at boosting its fading economic growth in recent months. In September, the People’s Bank of China announced a slate of support such as reducing the amount of cash banks are required to have on hand.

Just a few days later, China’s top leaders said they were aiming to put a halt to the slump in the property sector, saying its decline needed to be stopped and a recovery needed to be encouraged. Major cities including Guangzhou and Shanghai also unveiled measures aiming to boost homebuyer sentiment.

China’s Minister of Finance then earlier this month hinted that the country had space to increase its debt and its deficit. Lan Fo’an signaled that more stimulus was on its way and policy changes around debt and the deficit could come soon. The Chinese housing ministry meanwhile announced that it was expanding its “whitelist” of real estate projects and speeding up bank lending for those unfinished developments.

Some measures from the Chinese authorities have already been included in the IMF’s latest projections, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the IMF told CNBC’S Karen Tso on Tuesday.

“They are certainly going in the right direction, not enough to move the needle from the 4.8% we’re projecting for this year and 4.5% for next year,” he said, noting that the more recent measures were still being assessed and have not been incorporated into the agency’s projections so far.

There is a backdrop of economic uncertainty given elections this year, says IMF's Adrian

“They [the more recent support measures] could provide some upside risk in terms of output, but this is the context in which the third quarter of Chinese economic activity has disappointed on the downside, so we have this tension between, on the one hand, the economy is not doing as well, and then there is a need for support. Is there going to be enough support? We don’t know yet,” Gourinchas said.

China last week reported third-quarter gross domestic product growth of 4.6%, slightly higher than the 4.5% that economists polled by Reuters had been expecting.

In its report, the IMF also noted potential risks to the economic measures.

“Government stimulus to counter weakness in domestic demand would place further strain on public finances. Subsidies in certain sectors, if targeted to boost exports, could exacerbate trade tensions with China’s trading partners,” the agency said.

The energy markets are 'schizophrenic' right now: S&P Global vice chairman

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Economics

Business already are trying to pass tariff cost onto customers, Fed report says

Published

8 hours ago

on

April 23, 2025

By

In an aerial view, a container ship is seen docked at the Port of Oakland on April 18, 2025 in Oakland, California.

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

Businesses dealing with the early stages of President Donald Trump’s tariffs are looking for ways to pass increasing costs onto consumers, according to a Federal Reserve report Wednesday.

As Trump ordered against-the-board levies on U.S. imports and higher duties on Chinese products, the Fed’s “Beige Book” indicated how they plan to proceed. Companies reported getting notices from suppliers about rising costs, and they looked to find ways not to absorb the increases while noting uncertainty over the ability to pass them along to customers.

“Most Districts noted that firms expected elevated input cost growth resulting from tariffs,” the report said. “Many firms have already received notices from suppliers that costs would be increasing.”

Broadly speaking, the report — which comes out about every seven weeks — characterized economic growth as “little changed” from the March 5 report, though it noted that “uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive across” the Fed’s 12 districts.

Prices generally rose during the period, which included Trump’s April 2 “liberation day” announcement of the blanket tariffs. Employment was “little changed” amid falling headcounts in government jobs.

“Firms reported adding tariff surcharges or shortening pricing horizons to account for uncertain trade policy,” the report stated. “Most businesses expected to pass through additional costs to customers. However, there were reports about margin compression amid increased costs, as demand remained tepid in some sectors, especially for consumer-facing firms.”

In the New York area, firms reported rising prices particularly in food and insurance along with construction materials. Manufacturers and distributors said they already are adding surcharges due to shipments.

There also were signs of problems in the trade dispute with Canada: Tourists are booking fewer hotel rooms in New York City and at least one tech firm reported losing business contacts in Canada.

“The outlook for service sector firms worsened noticeably, with contacts anticipating a sharp decline in activity in the coming months. Service sector firms reported a major pullback in planned investment,” the report said.

Elsewhere in the report, service organizations dependent on government support noted difficulties since the White House began culling through agencies that get federal aid. The report specifically cited food banks in New York as seeing cuts in programs and personnel.

“Contacts at non-profits and other community-based organizations expressed significant concern about the future of federal funding and services support, creating challenges in staffing, strategy, and planning,” the report said.

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Consumer spending is up big in early April in anticipation of tariffs

Published

9 hours ago

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April 23, 2025

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Consumer spending is rising at a faster clip this month as everyday Americans rush to make purchases before President Donald Trump’s full tariff plan takes effect, data released Wednesday from JPMorgan shows.

Spending through the first 15 days in April climbed about 3.8% from the same period a year ago, JPMorgan found. Spending in March increased about 2.7% from the comparable month a year ago.

The pickup in spending shouldn’t be construed as heralding faster economic growth, however. “April data may reflect a pullforward of discretionary spending on big-ticket items if consumers tried to lock in lower prices before tariffs went into effect,” JPMorgan analysts led by Richard Shane wrote to clients in a note on Wednesday.

Much of the April gain came from discretionary spending, which rose by 4.3% in the first 15 days year-over-year, versus 2.9% growth in non-discretionary spending.

Psychological impact

JPMorgan’s data offers early hard evidence of how Trump’s plan for steep tariffs on imports has affected the psyche of American consumers. While Trump placed many of his planned levies on a 90-day pause soon after announcing them, anecdotal reports show Main Street consumers bracing for what many view as a seismic shift in global trade.

To be sure, JPMorgan noted that some of the growth in spending may have also been tied to the Easter holiday, which fell almost three weeks later in 2025 than in 2024. The analysts also pointed to sliding gasoline prices as a possible driver of increased discretionary spending.

Still, the potential for some binge buying before the full effect of Trump’s tariff policy is felt has altered the short-term economic outlook for small business owners and policymakers alike.

At first, “activity might look artificially high … and then by the summer, might fall off — because people have bought it all,” Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Federal Reserve, recently told CBS in reference to the acceleration of spending by consumers trying to get ahead of tariffs. A temporary bump in spending may lead to a corresponding drop-off in spending during the summer, he said.

Inventory stockpile

Goolsbee also cited evidence of businesses stockpiling inventory to last two to three months and said so-called preemptive purchasing appeared more common among companies than consumers.

Shippers have front-loaded cargo heading to the U.S. to get ahead of any potential increase in taxes as a result of the tariffs, according to CNBC’s Supply Chain Survey. Products from China, which face a cumulative tariff rate of 145%, accounted for much of the cargo shippers were sending to the U.S. earlier than planned.

This idea of an expedited spending timeline by consumers is popping up on first-quarter corporate earnings calls, too, as Wall Street analysts study whether demand for products ranging from smartphones to automobiles could fall later.

AT&T finance chief Pascal Desroches said Wednesday that customers have upgraded devices at a faster clip than expected since Trump unveiled his tariff plan.

Capital One CEO Richard Fairbank told analysts on Tuesday that upticks in spending on electronics and cars looked like signs of consumers speeding up purchases before the full tariff plan goes into effect. Ally Financial CEO Michael Rhodes said last week that a pull-forward in used car purchases could account for what he called strong volume recently seen by the auto loan provider.

Capital One and Ally’s anecdotes dovetail with data from Cox Automotive, which found U.S. vehicle supply plunging as consumers rushed to purchase.

The historical record shows that an acceleration in spending to beat higher prices later on doesn’t amount to much over the long term. For example, Japanese consumers in 1997 rushed to buy before a consumption tax rose to 5%, and again in 2014 and 2015 before the tax climbed to 8% and 10%, respectively. Afterward, however, spending either fell or flat lined, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond study.

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Economics

IMF sees U.S. fiscal deficit dipping in 2025, citing tariff revenue

Published

13 hours ago

on

April 23, 2025

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A security guard stands outside the building near signs advertising the International Monetary Fund/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 17, 2025.

Jim Watson | AFP | Getty Images

The International Monetary Fund forecasts U.S. tariffs will help lower the country’s fiscal deficit a touch in 2025 even as the U.S. growth and inflation outlooks worsen thanks to an intensifying trade war.

The 191-nation’s Fiscal Monitor report released Wednesday projects the U.S.’s overall federal deficit will fall to 6.5% of gross domestic product this year, down from 7.3% in 2024. 

The narrower gap between spending and revenue is “contingent on higher tariff revenues,” according to the report. 

The level was calculated based on the IMF’s “reference point” forecasts, which account for tariff announcements made as of April 4. This includes the U.S.’s reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2, but excludes subsequent rollouts such as the 90-day pause on higher rates and the exemption on smartphones, semiconductors and other technology goods. 

Against this backdrop, the deficit is estimated to fall to 5.6% of GDP in the medium term as revenues rise 0.7%, according to the IMF.

Uncertain revenue

To be sure, the report noted “the magnitude of the tariff revenue increase is highly uncertain.” 

One of the caveats to the reduced deficit projection is the degree to which tariffs will put downward pressure on imports into the U.S., itself dependent largely on how consumers respond to higher prices. This varies widely across products, the report noted. 

Moreover, “the tariff schedule itself is uncertain and plays a crucial role,” the report continued. 

The IMF acknowledged another risk to its forecast: whether tariffs lead to a wider slowdown in economic activity that could lead to a downturn in other segments of tax revenue — such as income tax — that offset higher revenues from tariffs. 

“These projections are highly uncertain and do not account for measures under discussion in Congress, under budget reconciliation” negotiations, the fund said. 

Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note have surged in recent weeks, last trading near 4.40%, as higher tariffs were announced, inflation forecasts raised and as the dollar declined.

If the total size of U.S. government debt continues to surge, the IMF thinks it will push up longer-term interest rates and the cost of financing the debt.

“Specifically, an increase of 10 percentage points of GDP in U.S. public debt between 2024 and 2029 could lead to a 60-basis-point rise in the 5-year forward to 10-year rate,” the IMF staff wrote. One basis point equals 1/100th of a percent, or 0.01.

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