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IMF warns on China’s property market worsening

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Chinese flags for sale on Nanjing East Road in Shanghai, China, on Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024.

Qilai Shen | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned of a possible worsening of the state of China’s property market as it trimmed its growth expectations for the world’s second-largest economy.

In a report published Tuesday, the IMF trimmed its forecast for growth in China for this year to 4.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than in its July projection. In 2025, growth is expected to come in at 4.5%, according to the IMF.

The Washington, D.C.-based organization also highlighted that China’s property sector contracting by more than expected is one of many downside risks for the global economic outlook.

“Conditions for the real estate market could worsen, with further price corrections taking place amid a contraction in sales and investment,” the report said.

Historical property crises in other countries like Japan (in the 1990s) and the U.S. (in 2008) show that unless the crisis in China is addressed, prices could correct further, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook noted. This in turn could send consumer confidence lower and reduce household consumption and domestic demand, the agency explained.

China's economic stimulus measures 'going in the right direction,' IMF chief economist says

China has announced the introduction of various measures aimed at boosting its fading economic growth in recent months. In September, the People’s Bank of China announced a slate of support such as reducing the amount of cash banks are required to have on hand.

Just a few days later, China’s top leaders said they were aiming to put a halt to the slump in the property sector, saying its decline needed to be stopped and a recovery needed to be encouraged. Major cities including Guangzhou and Shanghai also unveiled measures aiming to boost homebuyer sentiment.

China’s Minister of Finance then earlier this month hinted that the country had space to increase its debt and its deficit. Lan Fo’an signaled that more stimulus was on its way and policy changes around debt and the deficit could come soon. The Chinese housing ministry meanwhile announced that it was expanding its “whitelist” of real estate projects and speeding up bank lending for those unfinished developments.

Some measures from the Chinese authorities have already been included in the IMF’s latest projections, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the IMF told CNBC’S Karen Tso on Tuesday.

“They are certainly going in the right direction, not enough to move the needle from the 4.8% we’re projecting for this year and 4.5% for next year,” he said, noting that the more recent measures were still being assessed and have not been incorporated into the agency’s projections so far.

There is a backdrop of economic uncertainty given elections this year, says IMF's Adrian

“They [the more recent support measures] could provide some upside risk in terms of output, but this is the context in which the third quarter of Chinese economic activity has disappointed on the downside, so we have this tension between, on the one hand, the economy is not doing as well, and then there is a need for support. Is there going to be enough support? We don’t know yet,” Gourinchas said.

China last week reported third-quarter gross domestic product growth of 4.6%, slightly higher than the 4.5% that economists polled by Reuters had been expecting.

In its report, the IMF also noted potential risks to the economic measures.

“Government stimulus to counter weakness in domestic demand would place further strain on public finances. Subsidies in certain sectors, if targeted to boost exports, could exacerbate trade tensions with China’s trading partners,” the agency said.

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Donald Trump and Tulsi Gabbard are coming for the spooks

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OF DONALD TRUMP’s nominees to high office, few are more suspicious of the government they are pegged to join than Tulsi Gabbard. She warns of a “slow-rolling coup” by “the entire permanent Washington machine”, as she describes it in “For Love of Country”, a campaign book published in April. Her list of putschists is long, catholic and spook-heavy: “the Democratic National Committee, propaganda media, Big Tech, the FBI, the CIA, and a whole network of rogue intelligence and law enforcement agents working at the highest levels of our government”. Yet she may soon oversee some of that machinery.

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Checks and Balance newsletter: Trump is embracing a shift in Republican priorities

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Will he follow through on his policy commitments?

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Economics

Donald Trump chooses hedge fund executive Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary

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Scott Bessent, founder and chief executive officer of Key Square Group LP, during an interview in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, June 7, 2024.

Stefani Reynolds | Bloomberg | Getty Images

President-elect Donald Trump has signaled his intention to nominate hedge fund executive Scott Bessent as his Treasury secretary, sources tell CNBC and NBC News.

The founder of Key Square Group had been considered a strong favorite for the position along with a few other close contenders.

As head of Treasury, Bessent, 62, will be both the U.S. fiscal watchdog as well as a key official to help Trump enact his ambitious economic agenda. Both a Wall Street heavyweight and advocate for many of the incoming president’s economic goals, he would come to office at a critical time as the U.S. wrestles with a growing economy alongside long-festering debt and deficit issues.

Like Trump, Bessent favors gradual tariffs and deregulation to push American business and control inflation. In addition, Bessent has advocated for a revival in manufacturing as well as energy independence.

The prospective nominee also has deep philanthropic ties through Yale University along with Rockefeller University and Classical American homes Preservation Trust.

One obstacle Bessent will have to overcome is his past affiliation with billionaire investor and global gadfly George Soros. Bessent served as chief investment officer for Soros’ fund.

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