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IMF World Economic Outlook upgrades UK growth forecast for 2024

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Seen through the branches of trees in Ruskin Park are the lit porches of terraced period homes and in the distance, the growing development at Nine Elms, on 14th May 2024, in London, England. 

Richard Baker | In Pictures | Getty Images

LONDON — The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday lifted its 2024 growth outlook for the U.K. to 0.7% from 0.5%, providing a further boost to the country’s new government.

Looking ahead, the Washington, D.C.-based IMF reiterated its forecast for 1.5% U.K. growth in 2025 in the July update of its World Economic Outlook.

The upgrades come after two years of stagnation, with the U.K. falling into a shallow recession in the second half of 2023. However, GDP growth in May came in above analyst expectations at 0.4%, while summer events including the Euro 2024 soccer championship and even Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour are expected to bolster economic activity.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs earlier this month nudged its 2025 forecast for the U.K. economy 0.1 percentage point higher, to 1.6%. It cited the fiscal plans of the new Labour government led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, which include planning reform and closer trade ties with the European Union.

Deutsche Bank on Friday joined Goldman in brightening its U.K. outlook, with economists saying in a note they now expect gross domestic product growth of 1.2% this year, well above their earlier 0.8% forecast.

The country’s GDP in May showed the strength of sectors across professional services and construction, Deutsche Bank said, with the Euros tournament expected to provide a further boost to hospitality and leisure.

Analysts at Jefferies, meanwhile, said in a recent note that the size of Labour’s parliamentary majority would make the U.K. appear “relatively stable,” and that in tandem with regulatory reform may raise the attractiveness of assets in the country.

It comes as the Bank of England is expected to start bringing down interest rates in the coming months. U.K. inflation hit the central bank’s 2% target in May, and economists polled by Reuters see it declining further to 1.9% in Wednesday’s print.

Other economies given a 2024 growth upgrade by the IMF on Tuesday included the euro zone, which it lifted by 0.1 percentage point to 0.9%, Spain, up 0.5 percentage point to 2.4%, and China, up 0.4 percentage point to 5%.

It lowered its forecast for the U.S. economy by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6%.

The organization sees worldwide growth at 3.2% this year, and said global activity and world trade were firmer, particularly due to strong exports from Asia.

However, it warned that the services sector was broadly holding up the disinflation process, complicating monetary policy decisions.

“Upside risks to inflation have thus increased, raising the prospect of higher-for-even-longer interest rates, in the context of escalating trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty,” the IMF said in the World Economic Outlook.

— CNBC’s Sophie Kiderlin and Vicky McKeever contributed.

Economics

What would Robert F. Kennedy junior mean for American health?

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AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

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Economics

What would Robert Kennedy junior mean for American health?

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AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

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Economics

UK economy ekes out 0.1% growth, below expectations

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Bank of England in the City of London on 6th November 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district CBD of London. The City of London is widely referred to simply as the City is also colloquially known as the Square Mile. (photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images)

Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images

The U.K. economy expanded by 0.1% in the third quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.

That was below the expectations of economists polled by Reuters who forecast 0.2% gross domestic product growth on the previous three months of the year.

It comes after inflation in the U.K. fell sharply to 1.7% in September, dipping below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time since April 2021. The fall in inflation helped pave the way for the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, bringing its key rate to 4.75%.

The Bank of England said last week it expects the Labour Government’s tax-raising budget to boost GDP by 0.75 percentage points in a year’s time. Policymakers also noted that the government’s fiscal plan had led to an increase in their inflation forecasts.

The outcome of the recent U.S. election has fostered much uncertainty about the global economic impact of another term from President-elect Donald Trump. While Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected to be widely inflationary and hit the European economy hard, some analysts have said such measures could provide opportunities for the British economy.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gave little away last week on the bank’s views of Trump’s tariff agenda, but he did reference risks around global fragmentation.

“Let’s wait and see where things get to. I’m not going to prejudge what might happen, what might not happen,” he told reporters during a press briefing.

This is a breaking news story. Please refresh for updates.

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