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Inflation: March CPI up as Federal Reserve weighs interest rate cuts

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Inflation ticked up again in March compared with the year before — in yet another sign that the economy doesn’t need high interest rates to come down any time soon.

Fresh data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed prices rose 3.5 percent from March 2023 to March 2024. That’s up slightly from the 3.2 percent annual figure notched in February. Prices also rose 0.4 percent between February and March.

The result: The Federal Reserve is very unlikely to cut interest rates in the next few months. Officials have been looking for a bit more assurance that inflation is steadily falling before deciding it’s time to trim borrowing costs. But since the start of the year, the data has brought unwanted surprises, with economists and the markets now expecting no cuts until later in 2024.

The Fed “is nowhere near where they’re going to need to be,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum and former director of the Congressional Budget Office. “March would not give anyone any confidence.”

All of the major stock indexes closed in the red, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling more than 1 percent.

A delayed timeline for rate cuts could also collide with November’s presidential election. The Fed works hard to distance itself from politics, but central bankers are bound by their calendar. Wednesday’s report dashed expectations for an initial cut in June. And that leaves future moves to the Fed’s meetings in July, September and the first week of November — the height of election season, when Republicans and Democrats are racing to leverage the economy in their appeals to voters.

Speaking to reporters, President Biden touted his administration’s moves to lower costs for Americans, and he stood by earlier predictions that there would be a rate cut by the end of the year.

But “this may delay it a month or so,” Biden said. “I’m not sure of that. We don’t know what the Fed is going to do for certain.”

The main drivers of inflation — housing and energy costs — told a familiar story in March, and together made up more than half of the month-to-month increase for all of the items that go into the consumer price index. Rent costs rose 0.4 percent in March, a slight improvement from February. But they are still up 5.7 percent compared with a year ago. The energy index rose 1.1 percent in March, down from the 2.3 percent notched in February, but still up 2.1 percent over last year. Costs for car insurance also contributed to the hot report.

The Fed entered the year bolstered by six months of encouraging data — and notable progress since inflation soared to 40-year highs in the middle of 2022. For much of last year, healing supply chains helped ease prices for all kinds of goods, from couches to electronics and more. Gas prices also cooled off dramatically, after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine roiled global energy markets. Put together, the progress on goods and energy costs helped bring inflation way down from a peak of 9.1 percent. And going into this year, the hope was the trend would continue.

But prices went in the other direction in January, February and now March, coming in hotter than expected and disrupting the Fed’s remarkable streak of welcome news. Economists say that’s partly because there isn’t much relief coming from goods or energy prices anymore. And in the meantime, a thornier inflation category — stemming from services like hospitality, leisure and health care — hasn’t had a major breakthrough.

Policymakers will splice the report for narrower readings that help them gain a sharper sense of how inflation is pulsing through the economy. For example, a key measure that strips out more volatile categories like food and energy rose 0.4 percent in March, as it did for the two previous months. That won’t offer much comfort to officials in light of the services trend.

Similarly, officials like to compare data month to month — instead of year to year — since the economy can change so quickly. There, too, the Fed saw muted progress, with prices rising at the same rate in March as they did in February.

The central bank has pushed interest rates to their highest level in 23 years to combat inflation, and officials said before this latest report that they expect to cut rates three times this year.

So far, the inflation numbers haven’t signaled any urgency to bring rates back down, though.

Still, Lindsay Owens, executive director of the Groundwork Collaborative, a left-leaning think tank, said there’s a disconnect between the parts of the economy that are driving inflation and the parts the Fed is trying to tame through high rates. For example, car insurance claims don’t go down if the Fed keeps rates high, Owens said. Energy costs are often tied to events around the world.

“None of these things are remotely in the realm of things that are impacted through demand destruction,” Owens said. “I think if anything, this was not good news for those of us who want to see rate cuts sooner, but I think that’s unfortunate and misguided.”

At a news conference last month, at the end of the Fed’s March policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell said the task of getting inflation down to normal levels was always going to involve “some bumps.” Meeting minutes released Wednesday also showed that some officials noted that the rise in inflation from the beginning of the year “had been relatively broad based, and therefore should not be discounted as merely statistical aberrations.”

But financial markets are also wary that the uncertainty could interfere with cuts this year. Stocks dropped last week after Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that while he has cuts in his forecast, that could change if progress stalls.

“That would make me question whether we needed to do those rate cuts at all,” he said.

Over the past few years, inflation has been driven by different factors. More recently, housing costs have kept the rate high. Plenty of economists argue that the official statistics in the consumer price index are delayed and aren’t accounting for real-time measures that show rents falling in many places. But policymakers are still unsure why the shift hasn’t shown up yet. And the longer the shift takes, the harder it will be to wrestle overall inflation down.

“I bought that argument for the first year,” Holtz-Eakin said. “But at some point, it actually has to change.”

All of these factors pushed the Fed to raise borrowing costs after inflation spiked. That’s meant to slow the economy by making it more expensive to get a mortgage, take out a car loan or grow a business. And while practically every economist expected that all-out effort to tip the economy into a recession, the opposite has happened, with job growth and consumer spending holding strong.

But it hasn’t returned all the way to normal, and Fed officials are quick to caution that victory isn’t guaranteed. The Fed’s target is to get inflation to 2 percent, using its preferred inflation measure. That metric is different from the one released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday, and it clocked in at 2.5 percent in February compared with the year before.

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Student loan borrowers still at risk of wage garnishment

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The Trump administration paused its plan to garnish Social Security benefits for those who have defaulted on their student loans — but says borrowers’ paychecks are still at risk.

“Wage garnishment will begin later this summer,” Ellen Keast, a U.S. Department of Education spokesperson, told CNBC.

Since the Covid pandemic began in March 2020, collection activity on federal student loans had mostly been on hold. The Biden administration focused on extending relief measures to struggling borrowers in the wake of the public health crisis and helping them to get current.

The Trump administration’s move to resume collection efforts and garnish wages of those behind on their student loans is a sharp turn away from that strategy. Officials have said that taxpayers shouldn’t be on the hook when people don’t repay their education debt.

“Borrowers should pay back the debts they take on,” said U.S. Secretary of Education Linda McMahon in a video posted on X on April 22.

Here’s what borrowers need to know about the Education Department’s current collection plans.

Social Security benefits are safe, for now

Keast said on Monday that the administration was delaying its plan to offset Social Security benefits for borrowers with a defaulted student loan.

Some older borrowers who were bracing for a reduced benefit check as early as Tuesday.

The Education Department previously said Social Security benefits could be garnished starting in June. Depending on details like their birth date and when they began receiving benefits, a recipient’s monthly Social Security check may arrive June 3, 11, 18 or 25 this year, according to the Social Security Administration.

More than 450,000 federal student loan borrowers age 62 and older are in default on their federal student loans and likely to be receiving Social Security benefits, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

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The administration’s announcement gives borrowers more time to try to get current, and to avoid a reduced benefit check down the line.

“The Trump Administration is committed to protecting Social Security recipients who oftentimes rely on a fixed income,” said Keast.

Wages are still at risk

The Education Dept. says defaulted student loan borrowers could see their wages garnished later this summer.

The agency can garnish up to 15% of your disposable, or after-tax, pay, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. By law, you must be left with at least 30 times the federal minimum hourly wage ($7.25) a week, which is $217.50, Kantrowitz said.

Borrowers in default will receive a 30-day notice before their wages are garnished, a spokesperson for the Education Department previously told CNBC.

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Trump pauses Social Security benefit cuts over defaulted student loans

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The U.S. Department of Education is seen on March 20, 2025 in Washington, DC. U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing to sign an executive order to abolish the Department of Education. 

Win Mcnamee | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The U.S. Department of Education is pausing its plan to garnish people’s Social Security benefits if they have defaulted on their student loans, a spokesperson for the agency tells CNBC.

“The Trump Administration is committed to protecting Social Security recipients who oftentimes rely on a fixed income,” said Ellen Keast, an Education Department spokesperson.

The development is an abrupt change in policy by the administration.

The Trump administration announced on April 21 that it would resume collection activity on the country’s $1.6 trillion student loan portfolio. For nearly half a decade, the government did not go after those who’d fallen behind as part of Covid-era policies.

The federal government has extraordinary collection powers on its student loans and it can seize borrowers’ tax refundspaychecks and Social Security retirement and disability benefits. Social Security recipients can see their checks reduced by up to 15% to pay back their defaulted student loan.

More than 450,000 federal student loan borrowers age 62 and older are in default on their federal student loans and likely to be receiving Social Security benefits, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

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What the national debt, deficit mean for your money

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Annabelle Gordon/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The massive package of tax cuts House Republicans passed in May is expected to increase the U.S. debt by trillions of dollars — a sum that threatens to torpedo the legislation as the Senate starts to consider it this week.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the bill, as written, would add about $3.1 trillion to the national debt over a decade with interest, to a total $53 trillion. The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates a higher tally: $3.8 trillion, including interest and economic effects.

Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky was one of two Republicans to vote against the House measure, calling it a “debt bomb ticking” and noting that it “dramatically increases deficits in the near term.”

“Congress can do funny math — fantasy math — if it wants,” Massie said on the House floor on May 22. “But bond investors don’t.”

A handful of Republican Senators have also voiced concern about the bill’s potential addition to the U.S. debt load and other aspects of the legislation.

“The math doesn’t really add up,” Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kentucky, said Sunday on CBS.

The legislation comes as interest payments on U.S. debt have surpassed national spending on defense and represent the second-largest outlay behind Social Security. Federal debt as a percentage of gross domestic product, a measure of U.S. economic output, is already at an all-time high.

The notion of rising national debt may seem unimportant for the average person, but it can have a significant impact on household finances, economists said.

“I don’t think most consumers think about it at all,” said Tim Quinlan, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics. “They think, ‘It doesn’t really impact me.’ But I think the truth is, it absolutely does.”

Consumer loans would be ‘a lot more’ expensive

A much higher U.S. debt burden would likely cause consumers to “pay a lot more” to finance homes, cars and other common purchases, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.

“That’s the key link back to us as consumers, businesspeople and investors: The prospect that all this borrowing, the rising debt load, mean higher interest rates,” he said.

Sen. MarkWayne Mullin: Overall structure of House GOP reconciliation bill will stay intact

The House legislation cuts taxes for households by about $4 trillion, most of which accrue for the wealthy. The bill offsets some of those tax cuts by slashing spending for safety-net programs like Medicaid and food assistance for lower earners.

Some Republicans and White House officials argue President Trump’s tariff policies would offset a big chunk of the tax cuts.

But economists say tariffs are an unreliable revenue generator — because a future president can undo them, and courts may take them off the books.

How rising debt impacts Treasury yields

U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) speaks to the media after the House narrowly passed a bill forwarding President Donald Trump’s agenda at the U.S. Capitol on May 22, 2025.

Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Ultimately, higher interest rates for consumers ties to perceptions of U.S. debt loads and their effect on U.S. Treasury bonds.

Common forms of consumer borrowing like mortgages and auto loans are priced based on yields for U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 10-year Treasury.

Yields (i.e., interest rates) for long-term Treasury bonds are largely dictated by market forces. They rise and fall based on supply and demand from investors.

The U.S. relies on Treasury bonds to fund its operations. The government must borrow, since it doesn’t take in enough annual tax revenue to pay its bills, what’s known as an annual “budget deficit.” It pays back Treasury investors with interest.

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If the Republican bill — called the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” — were to raise the U.S. debt and deficit by trillions of dollars, it would likely spook investors and Treasury demand may fall, economists said.

Investors would likely demand a higher interest rate to compensate for the additional risk that the U.S. government may not pay its debt obligations in a timely way down the road, economists said.

Interest rates priced to the 10-year Treasury “also have to go up because of the higher risk being taken,” said Philip Chao, chief investment officer and certified financial planner at Experiential Wealth based in Cabin John, Maryland.

Moody’s cut the U.S.’ sovereign credit rating in May, citing the increasing burden of the federal budget deficit and signaling a bigger credit risk for investors. Bond yields spiked on the news.

How debt may impact consumer borrowing

The bond market is 'sounding the alarm' on U.S. and global fiscal situations, says Subadra Rajappa

A fixed 30-year mortgage would rise from almost 7% to roughly 7.6%, all else equal — likely putting homeownership further “out of reach,” especially for many potential first-time buyers, he said.

The debt-to-GDP ratio would swell from about 101% at the end of 2025 to an estimated 148% through 2034 under the as-written House legislation, said Kent Smetters, an economist and faculty director for the Penn Wharton Budget Model.

Bond investors get hit, too

‘Pouring gasoline on the fire’

“But it’s not going out on too much of a limb to suggest financial markets the last couple years have grown increasingly concerned about debt levels,” Quinlan said.

Absent action, the U.S. debt burden would still rise, economists said. The debt-to-GDP ratio would swell to 138% even if Republicans don’t pass any legislation, Smetters said.

But the House legislation would be “pouring gasoline on the fire,” said Chao.

“It’s adding to the problems we already have,” Chao said. “And this is why the bond market is not happy with it,” he added.

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