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Inflation rate eases to 2.4% in March, lower than expected

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Consumer price inflation eased more than expected in March as President Donald Trump prepared to launch tariffs against U.S. trading partners, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.

The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, fell a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in March, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.4%, down from 2.8% in February.

Excluding food and energy, so-called core inflation ran at a 2.8% annual rate, having increased 0.1% for the month. That was the lowest rate for core inflation since March 2021.

Slumping energy prices helped keep inflation tame, as a 6.3% decline in gasoline prices helped drive a 2.4% broader decline in the energy index. Food prices climbed 0.4% on the month. Egg prices rose another 5.9% and were up 60.4% from a year ago.

Moreover, shelter prices, among the most stubborn components of inflation, increased just 0.2% in March and were up 4% on a 12-month basis, the smallest gain since November 2021. Used vehicle prices were off 0.7% while new vehicle costs increased just 0.1%, ahead of tariffs that are expected to hit the auto industry hard.

Airline fares declined 5.3% in March and motor vehicle insurance dropped 0.8% and prescription drugs fell 2%.

Stock market futures indicated a sharply lower open on Wall Street following the release, while Treasury yields also were negative.

The report comes a day after Trump’s stunning reversal of some of his tariff plans as he announced a delay in the most aggressive of the duties put in place against dozens of nations. Instead, Trump let stand a 10% blanket levy on all imports announced last week and set a 90-day window during which the White House will negotiate the higher tariffs.

While Trump campaigned on bringing down inflation, progress had been slow to start 2025.

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Economics

Why stricter voting laws no longer help Republicans

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“The Republicans should pray for rain”—the title of a paper published by a trio of political scientists in 2007—has been an axiom of American elections for years. The logic was straightforward: each inch of election-day showers, the study found, dampened turnout by 1%. Lower turnout gave Republicans an edge because the party’s affluent electorate had the resources to vote even when it was inconvenient. Their opponents, less so.

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Economics

Why the president must not be lexicographer-in-chief

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Who decides what legal terms mean? If it is Donald Trump, God help America

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Economics

Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

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Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

Inflation barely budged in April as tariffs President Donald Trump implemented in the early part of the month had yet to show up in consumer prices, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, increased just 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.1%. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast while the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower.

Excluding food and energy, the core reading that tends to get even greater focus from Fed policymakers showed readings of 0.1% and 2.5%, against respective estimates of 0.1% and 2.6%.

Consumer spending, though, slowed sharply for the month, posting just a 0.2% increase, in line with the consensus but slower than the 0.7% rate in March. A more cautious consumer mood also was reflected in the personal savings rate, which jumped to 4.9%, up from 0.6 percentage point in March to the highest level in nearly a year.

Personal income surged 0.8%, a slight increase from the prior month but well ahead of the forecast for 0.3%.

Markets showed little reaction to the news, with stock futures continuing to point lower and Treasury yields mixed.

People shop at a grocery store in Brooklyn on May 13, 2025 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Trump has been pushing the Fed to lower its key interest rate as inflation has continued to gravitate back to the central bank’s 2% target. However, policymakers have been hesitant to move as they await the longer-term impacts of the president’s trade policy.

On Thursday, Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell held their first face-to-face meeting since the president started his second term. However, a Fed statement indicated the future path of monetary policy was not discussed and stressed that decisions would be made free of political considerations.

Trump slapped across-the-board 10% duties on all U.S. imports, part of an effort to even out a trading landscape in which the U.S. ran a record $140.5 billion deficit in March. In addition to the general tariffs, Trump launched selective reciprocal tariffs much higher than the 10% general charge.

Since then, though, Trump has backed off the more severe tariffs in favor of a 90-day negotiating period with the affected countries. Earlier this week, an international court struck down the tariffs, saying Trump exceeded his authority and didn’t prove that national security was threatened by the trade issues.

Then in the latest installment of the drama, an appeals court allowed a White House effort for a temporary stay of the order from the U.S. Court of International Trade.

Economists worry that tariffs could spark another round of inflation, though the historical record shows that their impact is often minimal.

At their policy meeting earlier this month, Fed officials also expressed worry about potential tariff inflation, particularly at a time when concerns are rising about the labor market. Higher prices and slower economic growth can yield stagflation, a phenomenon the U.S. hasn’t seen since the early 1980s.

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