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IRS Commissioner Werfel talks about Direct File, audits and IRS budget

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I sense a collective sigh of relief this tax season.

After the chaos of recent years at the IRS, there was less drama for taxpayers filing their 2023 returns.

The agency has largely worked through its massive backlog of tax returns and increased the odds of someone answering the phone on the customer service line. It’s also gotten a significant boost in funding.

“Despair has turned to cautious optimism,” National Taxpayer Advocate Erin Collins wrote this year in her report to Congress.

With IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel marking his first anniversary as head of the agency, we sat down for a chat about Direct File, audits and an agency in recovery.

Werfel is the 50th IRS commissioner and seems passionate about improving an agency that, before his appointment, was a hot mess.

Here are some of the issues I discussed with Werfel. (Some answers have been edited for brevity and clarity.)

Background: The discretionary budget for fiscal 2024 is $12.3 billion. For fiscal 2025, it’s also $12.3 billion, including “an additional $104.3 billion in mandatory funding for fiscal years 2026 through 2034 to allow the agency to continue strengthening its taxpayer services, technology and enforcement after other funds have been exhausted,” the IRS said.

It’s hard for Americans to understand how the IRS can’t manage with a budget in the billions. Why do you think the agency needs more money?

It’s definitely not enough money. The analogy I always use is like the train system. How much money does it take to run the train system so that all the trains are kept up to date, so that they work, they’re fixed, they’re on schedule, they’re paying employees, and doing safety checks?

The bigger the train system, the more money you need, the more people you need, the more trains you need, and the more repairs you need.

Our budget is essentially the same as it’s been since around 2011, 2012 and 2013. The same base budget. Think about how different the tax system is today versus [how] it was back then.

Racial disparity in audits of Black taxpayers

Background: Black taxpayers are three to five times as likely to be audited as other taxpayers, according to a report released last year by researchers from Stanford University, the University of Michigan, the University of Chicago and the Treasury Department. Researchers found the cause wasn’t overt racism, but rather computer algorithms the IRS uses to spot-check for fraud on returns claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit, which is designed to help individuals and families whose incomes fall below certain thresholds.

The report came out just as Werfel was preparing for his confirmation. In May 2023, shortly after starting the job, he submitted a letter to the Senate Finance Committee stating that “our initial findings support the conclusion that taxpayers may be audited at higher rates than would be expected given their share of the population.”

What’s the update in ensuring Black taxpayers aren’t being audited more than the average taxpayer?

When I saw that study, I almost felt like a sense of desperation. I wanted to get there to fix it. One of the first things we had to do was acknowledge [the problem]. This study is legitimate. The IRS has a significant problem with its approach to audits . . . where these audits are having a disparate impact on Black taxpayers.

But acknowledgment wasn’t nearly enough. The first order of business was to dramatically reduce the number of audits. Second is to change the underlying math or algorithm that leads to the case selections. We identified the critical changes to the algorithm that will eliminate the disparity. But now we have to test it. Now it’s a monitoring process.

The goal is to issue a report before the end of the calendar year. [The report] is going to basically say that we’ve taken specific interventions to address the disparity.

Background: The Inflation Reduction Act provided funding for a pilot program that allows taxpayers to directly file their returns with the agency. The pilot is only available to those with simple tax situations in 12 states: Arizona, California, Florida, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington and Wyoming.

So far, about 60,000 taxpayers have used Direct File. And since its debut in January, taxpayers have claimed more than $30 million in refunds, saving millions in estimated filing fees, according to the IRS.

Are you happy with how Direct File is doing?

I’m very happy with where Direct File is. The product is working, and we are getting positive feedback on it.

Taxpayers are reporting to us that it is easy and that it is reliable. If there is a handoff with the state with income taxes, the handoff is going well. Our state partner solutions are working effectively.

We’ll make a decision, later in the spring, around the future of Direct File and consulting with [Treasury] Secretary [Janet L.] Yellen. If we get to a point of going forward, we would certainly want to expand the number of states.

Homer Simpson and the IRS

Background: The IRS collects about $4.7 trillion in gross revenue and generates about 96 percent of the funding that supports the federal government’s operations.

In a speech at American University earlier this year, Werfel joked, “Why does Homer Simpson not like us?”

He was referring to the iconic character on “The Simpsons” who, during a trip to D.C., booed the IRS.

What do you hope to do with this agency in the time that you are here?

Our goal is not popularity. The goal is to do our jobs most effectively, because we play such a critical role.

I use the analogy of the NFL referee. The referees are going to get booed if they get the call right. They are going to get booed if they get the call wrong.

[At the IRS], we’re going to do instant replay and minimize the number of times we get the call wrong. But we are still going to get booed, and that’s just part of the job.

We have to recognize that it’s in the brochure that the tax collector is not a job that is popular. But I want the American people to see us as having a North Star of trying to get better and better at our job so that the game is as fair as possible.

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2025 is a renter’s market — here’s how to take advantage

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Vgajic | E+ | Getty Images

If you’re a renter, the market may be shifting in your favor.

As of December, the median asking rent price in the U.S. was $1,695, down 0.5% — or $8 — from November, according to a new report by Realtor.com.

The latest rent price is 1.1% lower — or $18 — from a year before, and down 3.7% from peak highs in July 2022.

We’re calling it a renter’s market.

Daryl Fairweather

chief economist at Redfin, an online real estate brokerage firm

Rental affordability is improving in part because of a “construction boom” of new apartment buildings during the pandemic, according to Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin.

“There are still units coming online now from projects that were started back in 2021, 2022,” she said.

With more new units available, some property managers are considering lowering their asking prices to attract tenants, experts say.

This means renters should have more negotiating power when it comes to the terms of their leases, Fairweather explained.

“We’re calling it a renter’s market. We think that’s going to continue for the next year,” she said.

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To be sure, the volume of newly built apartments is concentrated in some areas more than others, making rent prices decline faster in certain parts of the country.

By way of example, Austin, Texas, where the median rent is $1,394 as of December, saw some of the highest levels of multifamily housing construction over the past few years, according to Redfin. That figure is down from $1,482 in August when the median price fell 17.6% from a year prior.

Rents in Austin are likely to continue to fall as supply grows and demand balances itself out, experts say.

What you’re able to leverage as a renter will depend on what’s happening in your current market or where you plan to live.

Here are three key steps to consider if you’re on the rental market this year: 

1. Find out what other units are renting for in the area

You might live in an area that is becoming more affordable. To find out, compare what other units in the neighborhood similar to yours are renting for — it’s the “best way to arm yourself” in negotiations with your landlord or property manager, Fairweather said.  

“If your property manager is trying to raise your rent, you can come to them with information to show them that your rent shouldn’t be increased,” she said. “In some markets, it should even go down.” 

Pending home sales fell 5.5% in December, missing estimates

If you’ve been living in the same unit for a couple years and have consistently paid rent on time, try to use that history to negotiate for a lower monthly rent, said Joel Berner, a senior economist at Realtor.com.

A “good point to negotiate from” is to show your landlord that rent prices are coming down for similar properties but you have no desire to move ― unless you can save money elsewhere, he said.

Tenant turnover can be expensive for landlords, especially if the property sits unoccupied for a few months.

2. Negotiate any additional fees you pay

3. Consider teaming up with housemates

Meanwhile, if you’re living in an area that’s still “really expensive to rent,” consider splitting a larger unit with other people, Berner said.

Having roommates or housemates is a tried-and-true way to lower housing costs. It’s more effective now because the cost for larger units in some places is not growing as fast as rents for smaller units, he said.

“You can find a pretty good deal on maybe a three-bedroom apartment and split it with other folks,” he said. 

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2 moves retirees may make now to boost benefit checks

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A customer walks by a display of fresh eggs at a grocery store on Sept. 25, 2024 in San Anselmo, California.

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

The first Social Security benefit checks for 2025 include a 2.5% increase — the lowest annual cost-of-living adjustment since 2021.

For retirees, that amounts to an increase of about $50 per month, on average, according to the Social Security Administration.

Still, amid stubborn inflation and persistent elevated costs for everyday items, some retirees may feel that the increase is not enough.

“I think overall folks are glad to see the raise,” said Jim Blair, founder at NSSA Professionals and a former Social Security administrator. “It’s not necessarily keeping up with everything, but it’s better than nothing.”

The latest government inflation data shows the measure used to calculate the annual Social Security COLA — the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W — was up 2.8% over the last 12 months as of December.

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Another measure used by the Federal Reserve to gauge long-run inflation — core inflation excluding food and energy under the personal consumption expenditures price index — was up 2.8% in December, according to data released on Friday.

For retirees who would like to see bigger Social Security benefit checks, there are a couple of strategies they may consider trying, Blair said.

Adjust your tax withholdings

Social Security beneficiaries may have up to 22% of their benefits withheld for taxes.

“If you’re struggling a little bit, particularly if you’re not in too high of a tax bracket, you can always adjust that,” Blair said.

If you’ve been getting refunds, reducing how much you have withheld will allow you to access those funds sooner, though you will get back less during next year’s tax filing season, Blair said.

But there may be a risk you may owe money at tax time next year, depending on your personal circumstances, he said.

Beneficiaries can adjust the tax withholdings on their benefits by filing Form W-4V with the Social Security Administration.

Here's how to calculate your personal inflation rate

Ask to have your Medicare premiums adjusted

Most retirees pay a standard monthly premium rate for Medicare Part B, which covers preventive care, medically necessary services and durable medical equipment.

In 2025, that standard monthly premium is $185 per month.

But higher-income retirees pay more for what’s known as an income-related monthly adjustment amount, or IRMAA.

That also applies to monthly premiums for Medicare Part D prescription drug plans, which have average estimated monthly premiums of $46.50 in 2025.

The premiums are based on income tax filings from two years prior. If you’ve since had a life changing event that has prompted your income to go down — such as if you’ve retired, sold an income-producing business or survived the death of a spouse — you can apply to have your Medicare withholdings adjusted.

To do that, complete Form SSA-44 and submit it to the Social Security Administration.

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How tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico may impact U.S. consumers

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President Donald Trump on Jan. 27, 2025 in Doral, Florida.

Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty Images

President Donald Trump has repeatedly discussed imposing tariffs, both on the campaign trail and since taking office — and the first tranche, on goods from Canada, China and Mexico will take effect Feb. 1, the White House confirmed on Friday.

While there are still some unknowns, one thing is clear, economists said: U.S. consumers should brace for a negative financial impact.

It’s “hard to find positives” from tariffs, said Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, whose research specializes in trade with China and global supply chains.

Trump plans to put 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and a 10% duty on China, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said Friday.

China, Mexico and Canada are the three largest trading partners with the U.S., as measured by imported goods. They respectively supplied about $536 billion, $455 billion, and $437 billion of goods to the U.S. in 2022, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

President Trump to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1

Tariffs are a tax on foreign imports. U.S. businesses pay that tax to the federal government.

Many businesses will funnel those extra costs to customers — either directly or indirectly — which is why tariffs generally trigger higher prices for consumers, economists said.

“Part of these tariffs will be passed on to consumers,” Lovely said.

Americans could also find they have fewer choices for brands and products stocked on store shelves, she said.

Exemptions may ‘limit the damage’ to consumers

There are still many question marks over the looming tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico.

For example, it’s unclear if any imports will be exempt. Trump suggested this week, for example, that Canadian oil might be exempt. The White House said the tariffs will be open for public inspection on Saturday.

Discussions around such specifics are “ongoing,” a White House official told CNBC Friday morning.

Auto stocks will be hit hard by Trump's proposed Canada & Mexico tariffs, says RBC's Tom Narayan

“There are always exemptions and carve-outs,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.

Trump might try to “limit the damage to the U.S. consumer” via those exemptions, Zandi said. For example, he could choose not to impose duties on apparel from China, avocados from Mexico or cheese from Quebec, he said.

Debates about economic impact

The White House expects tariffs and Trump’s broader economic agenda to benefit the U.S. economy.

Trump imposed tariffs during his first term that — along with tax cuts, deregulation and energy policy — “resulted in historic job, wage, and investment growth with no inflation,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a written statement.

During his second term, Trump will use tariffs again to “usher in a new era of growth and prosperity for American industry and workers,” Desai said.

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A 25% Canada-Mexico tariff and 10% China tariff would raise about $1.3 trillion in revenue through 2035 on a net basis, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates. That revenue may be used to partially offset the cost of tax cuts, a package that might cost more than $5 trillion over 10 years.

However, a 10% additional tariff on China would shrink the U.S. economy by $55 billion during the Trump administration’s second term, assuming China retaliates with its own tariffs, according to an analysis by Warwick McKibbin and Marcus Noland, economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

A 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada would cause a $200 billion reduction in U.S. gross domestic product, they found.

Meanwhile, economists expect more tariffs in the future.

On the campaign trail, Trump floated a 10% or 20% universal tariff on all imports and a tariff of at least 60% on Chinese goods, for example.

A 20% worldwide tariff and a 60% levy on Chinese goods would raise costs by $3,000 in 2025 for the average U.S. household, according to an October analysis by the Tax Policy Center.

“Broad-based, universal tariffs and the damage they will do is not really a debate,” Zandi said. “They will do damage. It’s just a question of how much and to whom.”

How tariffs may impact consumers

Consumers can pay for tariffs both directly and indirectly, economists said.

Tariffs on China would likely have such the largest direct impact on consumers — the bulk of what China exports to the U.S. is consumer goods like apparel, toys and electronics, Zandi said.

China is the “dominant supplier” of toys and sports equipment to the U.S., and provides 40% of its footwear imports, and 25% of its electronics and textiles, according to a recent analysis by PIIE economists.

Mexico and Canada tariffs would also “put upward pressure on food prices,” according to PIIE economists.

The nations are “important sources” of vegetables, accounting for 47% of total U.S. imports, and prepared foodstuffs (42%), for example. Transportation equipment and machinery, electronics and fuel are other sectors that stand to be most impacted, they found.

“The U.S. imports roughly 40% of its crude oil, with Canada as the dominant supplier,” Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, a financial consulting firm, said in a written statement.

“If oil is hit with tariffs, the impact could hit energy markets, pushing up costs for businesses and consumers,” Green wrote.

However, domestic energy producers, certain U.S. manufacturers and other industries “could see short-term gains from reduced competition,” he added.

Indirectly, U.S. producers might raise their prices because they face less foreign competition for certain goods, Lydia Cox, an assistant professor of economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said during a recent webinar.

U.S. companies that use tariffed goods to manufacture their products might also raise prices for downstream goods, Cox said. For example, steel tariffs might lead to higher prices for cars, heavy machinery and other products that use steel.

Tariffs ‘create a lot of collateral damage’

Other nations might also respond with retaliatory tariffs that start a trade war, which might cause U.S. producers to lose sales abroad, she said.

“Unlike Canada and Mexico, for which retaliation would be inconceivable, China has retaliated in the past and would likely do so again,” PIIE economists wrote recently.

Further, tariffs may have the unintended consequence of destroying jobs, economists said.

Their ability to create U.S. jobs is “vastly, vastly overstated,” said Lovely of PIIE.

Take steel, for example. There are 80 workers in jobs in industries that use steel as an input for every one job that produces steel, Cox found in a recent paper.

Tariffs create “a lot of collateral damage along the way,” which is why economists warn against broad-based use, Cox said.

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