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IRS Commissioner Werfel talks about Direct File, audits and IRS budget

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I sense a collective sigh of relief this tax season.

After the chaos of recent years at the IRS, there was less drama for taxpayers filing their 2023 returns.

The agency has largely worked through its massive backlog of tax returns and increased the odds of someone answering the phone on the customer service line. It’s also gotten a significant boost in funding.

“Despair has turned to cautious optimism,” National Taxpayer Advocate Erin Collins wrote this year in her report to Congress.

With IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel marking his first anniversary as head of the agency, we sat down for a chat about Direct File, audits and an agency in recovery.

Werfel is the 50th IRS commissioner and seems passionate about improving an agency that, before his appointment, was a hot mess.

Here are some of the issues I discussed with Werfel. (Some answers have been edited for brevity and clarity.)

Background: The discretionary budget for fiscal 2024 is $12.3 billion. For fiscal 2025, it’s also $12.3 billion, including “an additional $104.3 billion in mandatory funding for fiscal years 2026 through 2034 to allow the agency to continue strengthening its taxpayer services, technology and enforcement after other funds have been exhausted,” the IRS said.

It’s hard for Americans to understand how the IRS can’t manage with a budget in the billions. Why do you think the agency needs more money?

It’s definitely not enough money. The analogy I always use is like the train system. How much money does it take to run the train system so that all the trains are kept up to date, so that they work, they’re fixed, they’re on schedule, they’re paying employees, and doing safety checks?

The bigger the train system, the more money you need, the more people you need, the more trains you need, and the more repairs you need.

Our budget is essentially the same as it’s been since around 2011, 2012 and 2013. The same base budget. Think about how different the tax system is today versus [how] it was back then.

Racial disparity in audits of Black taxpayers

Background: Black taxpayers are three to five times as likely to be audited as other taxpayers, according to a report released last year by researchers from Stanford University, the University of Michigan, the University of Chicago and the Treasury Department. Researchers found the cause wasn’t overt racism, but rather computer algorithms the IRS uses to spot-check for fraud on returns claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit, which is designed to help individuals and families whose incomes fall below certain thresholds.

The report came out just as Werfel was preparing for his confirmation. In May 2023, shortly after starting the job, he submitted a letter to the Senate Finance Committee stating that “our initial findings support the conclusion that taxpayers may be audited at higher rates than would be expected given their share of the population.”

What’s the update in ensuring Black taxpayers aren’t being audited more than the average taxpayer?

When I saw that study, I almost felt like a sense of desperation. I wanted to get there to fix it. One of the first things we had to do was acknowledge [the problem]. This study is legitimate. The IRS has a significant problem with its approach to audits . . . where these audits are having a disparate impact on Black taxpayers.

But acknowledgment wasn’t nearly enough. The first order of business was to dramatically reduce the number of audits. Second is to change the underlying math or algorithm that leads to the case selections. We identified the critical changes to the algorithm that will eliminate the disparity. But now we have to test it. Now it’s a monitoring process.

The goal is to issue a report before the end of the calendar year. [The report] is going to basically say that we’ve taken specific interventions to address the disparity.

Background: The Inflation Reduction Act provided funding for a pilot program that allows taxpayers to directly file their returns with the agency. The pilot is only available to those with simple tax situations in 12 states: Arizona, California, Florida, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington and Wyoming.

So far, about 60,000 taxpayers have used Direct File. And since its debut in January, taxpayers have claimed more than $30 million in refunds, saving millions in estimated filing fees, according to the IRS.

Are you happy with how Direct File is doing?

I’m very happy with where Direct File is. The product is working, and we are getting positive feedback on it.

Taxpayers are reporting to us that it is easy and that it is reliable. If there is a handoff with the state with income taxes, the handoff is going well. Our state partner solutions are working effectively.

We’ll make a decision, later in the spring, around the future of Direct File and consulting with [Treasury] Secretary [Janet L.] Yellen. If we get to a point of going forward, we would certainly want to expand the number of states.

Homer Simpson and the IRS

Background: The IRS collects about $4.7 trillion in gross revenue and generates about 96 percent of the funding that supports the federal government’s operations.

In a speech at American University earlier this year, Werfel joked, “Why does Homer Simpson not like us?”

He was referring to the iconic character on “The Simpsons” who, during a trip to D.C., booed the IRS.

What do you hope to do with this agency in the time that you are here?

Our goal is not popularity. The goal is to do our jobs most effectively, because we play such a critical role.

I use the analogy of the NFL referee. The referees are going to get booed if they get the call right. They are going to get booed if they get the call wrong.

[At the IRS], we’re going to do instant replay and minimize the number of times we get the call wrong. But we are still going to get booed, and that’s just part of the job.

We have to recognize that it’s in the brochure that the tax collector is not a job that is popular. But I want the American people to see us as having a North Star of trying to get better and better at our job so that the game is as fair as possible.

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Why tax-loss harvesting can be easier with ETFs

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Izusek | E+ | Getty Images

Despite a strong year for the stock market, you could still be sitting on portfolio losses. But you can leverage down assets to score a tax break, experts say.

The tactic, known as “tax-loss harvesting,” involves selling losing brokerage account assets to claim a loss. When you file your taxes, you can use those losses to offset portfolio gains. Once your investment losses exceed profits, you can use the excess to reduce regular income by up to $3,000 per year.

“Tax-loss harvesting is a tried and true strategy to lower investors’ tax bills,” said certified financial planner David Flores Wilson, managing partner at Sincerus Advisory in New York. 

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After offsetting $3,000 in regular income, investors can carry any additional losses forward into future years to offset capital gains or income.

“Investors can benefit substantially over time” by tax-loss harvesting consistently throughout the year, Wilson said.

What to know about the wash sale rule

Tax-loss harvesting can be simple when you’re eager to offload a losing asset. But it’s tricky when you still want exposure to that asset.

That’s because of guidelines from the IRS known as the “wash sale rule,” which blocks you from claiming the tax break on losses if you rebuy a “substantially identical” asset within the 30-day window before or after the sale.

In other words, you can’t sell a losing asset to claim a loss and then immediately repurchase the same investment. 

How exchange-traded funds can help

Jim Cramer explains why mutual funds are not the best way to invest

Ultimately, the IRS definition of “substantially identical” isn’t black and white and “depends on the facts and circumstances” of your case, according to the agency.

When in doubt, consider reviewing your plan with an advisor or tax professional to make sure you’re safe from violating the wash sale rule.

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Older voters prioritized personal economic issues on Election Day: AARP

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Voters line up to cast their ballots at a voting location in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, on Nov. 5, 2024.

Samuel Corum | Afp | Getty Images

When asked, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” the answer for many older voters ages 50 and over was “no,” according to a new post-election poll released by the AARP.

Almost half — 47% — of voters ages 50 and over said they are “worse off now,” the research found, while more than half — 55% — of swing voters in that age cohort said the same.

In competitive Congressional districts, President-elect Donald Trump won the 50 and over vote by two percentage points — the same margin by which he carried the country, AARP found.

Among voters 50 to 64, Trump won by seven points. With voters ages 65 and over, Vice President Kamala Harris won by two points.

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The AARP commissioned Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, a bipartisan team of Republican and Democrat firms providing public opinion research and consulting, to conduct the survey. Interviews were conducted with 2,348 “likely voters” in targeted congressional districts following Election Day between Nov. 6 and 10.

Older voters, who make up an outsized share of the vote and tend to lean Republican, made a difference in a lot of key congressional races, according to Bob Ward, a Republican pollster and partner at Fabrizio Ward.

“Overall, 50-plus voters really are what delivered Republicans their majority,” Ward said.

Older swing voters focused on pocketbook issues

When asked “How worried are you about your personal financial situation?” in a June AARP survey, 62% of voters ages 50 and over checked the worry box, while 63% of voters overall did the same.

Voters continued to place an emphasis on their money concerns on Election Day, the latest AARP poll found.

“All these surveys that we conducted for AARP spoke to a lack of economic security for people,” said Jeff Liszt, partner at Impact Research.

“The shock of inflation had left them without a feeling of security,” he said.

For voters ages 50 and over, food ranked as the top cost concern, with 39%, the poll found. That was followed by health care and prescription drugs, with 20%; housing, 14%; gasoline, 10%; and electricity, 6%.

More than half — 55% — of voters ages 50 and up said they prioritized personal economic issues, including inflation, the economy and jobs, and Social Security when determining their vote.

New AARP CEO: 'Our goal is to hold elected officials accountable' to Americans 50 and over

Older swing voters were more likely to turn out at the polls due to those pocketbook issues than any other priorities, the poll found.  

Republicans won older voters on most personal economic issues, though voters ages 50 and up still favored Democrats on Social Security by two points.  

Democrats have traditionally had a stronger lead on Social Security, Ward said, while the poll results show it is now “completely up for grabs.”

“Looking at the midterms, whether I’m Republican or Democrat … this is going to be an issue I want to win on,” Ward said.

Voters 50 and over broadly support Medicare negotiating prescription drug prices, as well as policies to help the older population age at home. Non-financial issues such as immigration and border security and threats to democracy were also among top concerns for some older voters.

Social Security reform may be bigger focus

While both presidential candidates promised to protect Social Security on the campaign trail, they did not provide plans to restore the program’s solvency.

The trust fund Social Security relies on to pay benefits is projected to run dry in 2033, at which point 79% of those benefits will be payable.

“What’s absolutely clear is that there’s an action-forcing event that we’re getting closer to, and that at some point Congress is going to have to act,” said Nancy Altman, president of Social Security Works, an advocacy group focused on expanding the program.

While Trump has touted plans to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, research has found that would worsen the program’s insolvency. The House voted this week to eliminate rules that reduce Social Security benefits for certain people who have pension income, which would also add to the program’s costs.

For most Americans, Social Security is the primary source of retirement income, according to the AARP. About 42% of people ages 65 and over rely on the program for at least 50% of their incomes; about 20% rely on it for at least 90% of their incomes.

Like Social Security, Medicare also faces a looming trust fund depletion for the Part A program that covers hospital insurance.

“We want to ensure that we’re protecting Medicare, Social Security and that it’s done in a fiscally responsible way,” AARP CEO Dr. Myechia Minter-Jordan told CNBC in a recent interview.

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Here’s what to expect on mortgage rates into early 2025

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Pekic | E+ | Getty Images

Mortgage rates seem to have steadied. That may be a good sign for the market, experts say.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the U.S. slightly dipped to 6.78% for the week ending Nov. 14, barely changed from 6.79% a week prior, according to Freddie Mac data via the Federal Reserve.

“Even though it’s higher than it has been over the course of several weeks, it’s probably good news for homebuyers,” said Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors. 

“When rates are moving around a lot, it makes a lot of uncertainty in the market,” Lautz said. 

Mortgage rates declined this fall in anticipation of the first interest rate cut since March 2020. But then borrowing costs jumped again this month as the bond market reacted to Donald Trump’s election win.

While the president-elect has talked about bringing mortgage rates down, presidents do not control borrowing costs for home loans, experts say.

Instead, mortgage rates closely track Treasury yields and are partially affected by what happens with the federal funds rate.

“They foresee inflationary policies, whether it’s tariffs or greater government spending, the tax bill … they’re pricing in more inflation,” said James Tobin, president and CEO of the National Association of Home Builders. “As the bond market reacts, mortgage rates are going to react to that, too.”

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Less volatility can be a good sign, said Chen Zhao, Chief economist at Redfin, an online real estate brokerage.

“High volatility by itself actually pushes mortgage rates even higher above treasury yields,” Zhao said. “More stable rates also means that homebuyers don’t have to worry during their home search about what their budget allows for changing.”

Trump’s team did not respond to a request for comment.

Don’t expect ‘huge swings’ on mortgage rates

Election uncertainty contributed to an upward swing in mortgage rates during October. Then rates went up even more last week as the stock market and yields reacted to the election results.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points on Nov. 6, closing to trade at 4.43%, hitting its highest level since July, as investors bet a Trump presidency would increase economic growth, along with fiscal spending. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up by 0.073 basis point to 4.276% that day, reaching its highest level since July 31.

But now that we have a president-elect, mortgage rates are expected to gradually come down over time, Lautz said.

From a monetary policy standpoint, future rate cuts are up in the air. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday that strong U.S. economic growth will allow policymakers to take their time in deciding how far and how fast to lower interest rates.

If the Fed continues to ease the federal funds rate, it could provide indirect downward pressure on mortgage rates, according to NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz.

“However, improved growth expectations would lead to higher rates, as would larger government deficits,” he said.

Experts say that mortgage rates might head into a “bumpy” or “volatile” path over the next year.

“I don’t think that there’s going to be any huge swings down into the 5% range,” Lautz said. “Our expectation is that rates are going to be in the 6% range as we move into 2025,” she said.

How buyers, sellers and homeowners can benefit

Rates that are trending lower can present an opportunity for buyers who have been house hunting for a while, especially as the winter season kicks in. Competition tends to slow down in the winter months in part because homebuyers with kids are in the middle of the school year and reluctant to move, Lautz explained. 

Our expectation is that rates are going to be in the 6% range as we move into 2025.

Jessica Lautz

Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors

Current homeowners can also make the most of lower rates.

For example, if you bought your home around this time last year, when mortgage rates peaked at around 8%, you might benefit from a mortgage refinance, Lautz said. 

It “makes sense” to consider a refinance if rates have fallen one to two points since you took out the loan, Jeff Ostrowski, a housing expert at Bankrate.com, told CNBC after the Fed’s first rate cut this fall.

Remember that a loan refinance isn’t free; you may incur associated costs like closing costs, an appraisal and title insurance. While the total cost will depend on your area, a refi is going to cost between 2% and 6% of the loan amount, Jacob Channel, an economist at LendingTree, said at that time.

If you’re pondering on whether to refi or not, look at what’s going on with rates, reach out to lenders and see if refinancing makes sense for you, experts say.

Homeowners have earned record home equity. U.S. homeowners with mortgages have a net homeowner equity of over $17.6 trillion in the second quarter of 2024, according to CoreLogic. Home equity increased in the second quarter of this year by $1.3 trillion, an 8.0% growth from a year prior.

If you’re looking to sell your current home, you may be able to counteract slightly high borrowing costs on your next property by placing a larger down payment, Lautz said.

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