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IRS to lose billions if migrants stop filing tax returns

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The Internal Revenue Service is projected to lose more than $313 billion in revenue in the coming decade as undocumented workers are poised to pay fewer taxes after the agency struck a deal to share data with U.S. immigration authorities.

The IRS is expected to lose $12 billion in revenue for the remainder of the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, according to a report out Tuesday by the Yale Budget Lab. The group estimates unauthorized workers paid about $66 billion in federal taxes in fiscal year 2023, with about two-thirds of that coming from payroll levies.

The Treasury Department — which oversees the IRS — earlier this week reached a deal with the Department of Homeland Security to share taxpayer information in response to law enforcement requests related to migration. While federal officials say the agreement includes safeguards and applies only to criminal matters, it reverses longstanding IRS privacy policies.

The report underscores the role undocumented workers play in paying into Social Security and Medicare benefit programs that they can’t draw from in retirement because of their immigration status. 

“The IRS has historically made clear to the undocumented immigrant population that their tax information is confidential and would not be used in such ways,” the report said. Tax compliance could fall among that group “if they become concerned that filing taxes could expose their personal contact information to law enforcement and be used to facilitate their deportation.”

President Donald Trump has enlisted the IRS and other government agencies in his efforts to crack down on undocumented immigration. He’s vowed to carry out the largest mass deportation campaign in U.S. history, and so far is ramping up raids and encouraging undocumented immigrants to “self-deport.”

The report notes that there’s “considerable uncertainty” around the estimates, as they will depend strongly on the behaviors of undocumented immigrants and their employers. The 10-year loss in revenue could be as low as $147 billion and as high as $479 billion, according to the Budget Lab.

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Total college enrollment rose 3.2%

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Total postsecondary spring enrollment grew 3.2% year-over-year, according to a report.

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center published the latest edition of its Current Term Enrollment Estimates series, which provides final enrollment estimates for the fall and spring terms.

The report found that undergraduate enrollment grew 3.5% and reached 15.3 million students, but remains below pre-pandemic levels (378,000 less students). Graduate enrollment also increased to 7.2%, higher than in 2020 (209,000 more students).

Graduation photo

(Read more: Undergraduate accounting enrollment rose 12%)

Community colleges saw the largest growth in enrollment (5.4%), and enrollment increased for all undergraduate credential types. Bachelor’s and associate programs grew 2.1% and 6.3%, respectively, but remain below pre-pandemic levels. 

Most ethnoracial groups saw increases in enrollment this spring, with Black and multiracial undergraduate students seeing the largest growth (10.3% and 8.5%, respectively). The number of undergraduate students in their twenties also increased. Enrollment of students between the ages of 21 and 24 grew 3.2%, and enrollment for students between 25 and 29 grew 5.9%.

For the third consecutive year, high vocational public two-years had substantial growth in enrollment, increasing 11.7% from 2023 to 2024. Enrollment at these trade-focused institutions have increased nearly 20% since pre-pandemic levels.

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Accounting

Interim guidance from the IRS simplifies corporate AMT

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Jordan Vonderhaar/Photographer: Jordan Vonderhaar/

The Internal Revenue Service has released Notice 2025-27, which provides interim guidance on an optional simplified method for determining an applicable corporation for the corporate alternative minimum tax.

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 amended Sec. 55 to impose the CAMT based on the “adjusted financial statement income” of an “applicable corporation” for taxable years beginning in 2023. 

Among other details, proposed regs provide that “applicable corporation” means any corporation (other than an S corp, a regulated investment company or a REIT) that meets either of two average annual AFSI tests depending on financial statement net operating losses for three taxable years and whether the corporation is a member of a foreign-parented multinational group.

Prior to the publication of any final regulations relating to the CAMT, the Treasury and the IRS will issue a notice of proposed rulemaking. Notice 2025-27 will be in IRB: 2025-26, dated June 23.

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In the blogs: Whiplash | Accounting Today

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Conquering tariffs; bracing for notices; FBAR penalty timing; and other highlights from our favorite tax bloggers.

Whiplash

Number-crunching

  • Canopy (https://www.getcanopy.com/blog): “7-Figure Firm, 4-Hour Workweek: 5 Questions to Ask Yourself.”
  • The National Association of Tax Professionals (https://blog.natptax.com/): This week’s “You Make the Call” looks at Sarah, a U.S. citizen who moved to London for work in 2024. On May 15, 2025, it hit her that she forgot to file her 2024 U.S. return. Was she required to file her 2024 taxes by April 15?
  • Taxable Talk (http://www.taxabletalk.com/): Anteing up with Uncle Sam: The World Series of Poker is back, and one major change this year involves players from Russia and Hungary. After suspension of tax treaties with those nations, players will have 30% of winnings withheld. 
  • Parametric (https://www.parametricportfolio.com/blog): Direct indexing seems to come with a common misunderstanding: On the performance statement, conflating the value of harvested losses with returns. 

Problems brewing

  • Taxing Subjects (https://www.drakesoftware.com/blog): No chill is chillier than the client’s at the mailbox when an IRS notice appears out of the blue. How you can educate — and warn — them about the various notices everybody’s that favorite agency might send.
  • Dean Dorton (https://deandorton.com/insights/): Perhaps because they can be founded on trust, your nonprofit clients are especially vulnerable to fraud.
  • Global Taxes (https://www.globaltaxes.com/blog.php): When it’s your time, it’s your time: The clock starts on FBAR penalties when the tax forms are due and not when penalties are assessed — and even the death of the taxpayer doesn’t extend the deadline.
  • TaxConnex (https://www.taxconnex.com/blog-): Your e-commerce clients can muck up sales tax obligations in many ways. How some of the seeds of trouble might hide in their own billing system.
  • Sovos (https://sovos.com/blog/): What’s up with the five states that don’t have a sales tax?
  • Taxjar (https://www.taxjar.com/resources/blog): Humans are still needed to handle sales tax complexity, with real-world examples.
  • Wiss (https://wiss.com/insights/read/): A business — and business-advising — success story from a California chicken eatery.

Almost half done

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