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Is the ‘vibecession’ here to stay? Here’s what experts say

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How investors are viewing global uncertainty this election year

Some consumers have been weighed down by a “vibecession” for a while now — and those feelings might get worse, experts say.

A “vibecession” is the disconnect between consumer sentiment and economic data, said Kyla Scanlon, who coined the term in 2022. Scanlon is the author of “In This Economy? How Money and Markets Really Work.”

“It’s this idea that economic data is telling us one story and consumer sentiment is telling us another,” she tells CNBC.

Nearly half, 45%, of voters say they are financially worse off now than they were four years ago, and the highest rate since 2008, according to NBC Exit Poll data.

Yet economic metrics show the economy is booming. Inflation, while it’s still a burden for consumers, has slowed down significantly. While some warning signs have popped up in the job market, to some degree conditions are normalizing from the red-hot market of a few years ago.

“The economy is so extraordinarily personal, and people really hate inflation,” said Scanlon. “That’s what we saw in this presidential election.”

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Even if the economy stays on track, Americans will likely continue to feel a “vibecession,” experts say.

The vibes might actually get worse, depending on what policies President-elect Donald Trump enacts, said Jacob Channel, senior economist at LendingTree. High-rate tariffs on imported goods will likely wipe out progress made to reduce inflation.

“If Donald Trump as president enacts the economic policies that he proposed as a candidate, we’re not only going to have a vibecession, we’re going to have a real recession,” Channel said.

Inflation and the labor market

Inflation, or the rate at which prices for goods and service increase over time, has come down — which means prices are still rising, but at a slower pace. Prices overall remain high, said Brett House, economics professor at Columbia Business School.

“Americans’ lingering frustration with the economy and their personal circumstances appears rooted in the persistently high prices that remain post-pandemic,” he said. “This makes for daily sticker shocks when buying groceries, getting a burger, paying rent and filling up the car.”

The consumer price index, a gauge measuring the costs of goods and services in the U.S., grew to a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in September, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

While the Federal Reserve is still concerned about inflation, “we’re seeing these signs of weakness in the labor market,” Scanlon said.

The quits rate was 3.1 million in September, a 1.9% decrease from a month before, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. There’s also a slowdown in hiring. The economy only added 12,000 jobs in October, the BLS reported. That’s less than the forecast of 100,000 increase and lower than the 223,000 jobs added in September.

To be sure, “a lot of this is just simply normalization after the distortions that occurred after the COVID shutdowns,” said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst.

Additionally, the unemployment rate continues to hold steady at 4.1% and wage growth is up 4% from a year prior. “This suggests that the labor market remains firm despite signs of weakening,” J.P. Morgan noted.

‘What the bond market is telling us’

The stock market rallied after the presidential election results. Just before close on Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had surged more than 1,500 points to a record high. The S&P 500 also popped more than 2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.9% — both to record highs.

U.S. bond yields also rose. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points on Wednesday closing to trade at 4.43%, hitting its highest level since July, as investors bet a Trump presidency would increase economic growth, along with fiscal spending.

The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up by 0.073 basis points to 4.276%, reaching its highest level since July 31.

That could be a warning sign, Scanlon said: “I don’t think the inflation story is over yet. That’s what the bond market is telling us.”

Depending on what policies are enacted under Trump’s second term, the inflation problem might get worse, experts say.

“When we see treasury yields rising [and] the possibility of another $7 [trillion] to $10 trillion added to federal debt, those are not anti-inflationary moves, nor are mass deportations,” Hamrick said.

Trump has proposed a 10% to 20% tariff on all imports across the board, as well as a rate between 60% and 100% for goods from China. Such moves “will be inflationary,” Scanlon said. On top of that, his fiscal plan could potentially add $7.75 trillion in spending through fiscal year 2035, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

“Who knows what will actually get passed from this fiscal plan, but massive tax cuts and tariffs … it’s expensive, and the bond market’s telling us that,” she said.

‘Vibecessions’ going forward

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, a recession is “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” The last time this occurred was in the onset of the pandemic in 2020.

However, it doesn’t necessarily take for these conditions to take place for consumers to feel negative about the economy. It can be “very difficult to square” what people are feeling in their everyday lives versus national averages and medians, experts say.

“There’s still going to be that continued disconnect between how people feel and what the economy is doing,” Scanlon said.

To that point, “the vibecession will endure,” Channel said.

And if consumers end up having to deal with extra costs associated with tariffs every time they go to the grocery store, “the vibes might actually start to get a whole heck of a lot worse,” Channel added.

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Top 10 S&P 500 stock winners since Election Day

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Stock traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Many large U.S. companies have seen their stocks swell since the presidential election.

The top 10 performing stocks in the S&P 500 index saw returns of 18% or more since Election Day, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence, which analyzed returns based on closing prices from Nov. 5 to Nov. 20.

Two companies — Axon Enterprise (AXON), which provides law-enforcement technology, and Tesla (TSLA), the electric-vehicle maker led by Elon Musk, an advisor to President-elect Donald Trump — saw their stocks gain more than 35%, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

By contrast, the S&P 500 gained about 2% over the same period.

‘Usually a bad idea’ to buy on short-term gain

Investors should be cautious about buying individual stocks based on short-term boosts, said Jeremy Goldberg, a certified financial planner, portfolio manager and research analyst at Professional Advisory Services, Inc., which ranked No. 37 on CNBC’s annual Financial Advisor 100 list.

“It’s usually a bad idea,” Goldberg said. “Momentum is a powerful force in the market, but relying solely on short-term price moves as an investment strategy is risky.”

Investors should understand what’s driving the movement and whether the factors pushing up a stock price are sustainable, Goldberg said.

Why did these stocks outperform?

Lofty stock returns were partly driven by Trump administration policy stances expected to benefit certain companies and industries, investment experts said.

Deregulation and a softer view toward mergers and acquisitions are two “key” themes driving bullish sentiment after Trump’s win, said Jacob Manoukian, head of U.S. investment strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.

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Relying solely on short-term price moves as an investment strategy is risky.

Jeremy Goldberg

portfolio manager and research analyst at Professional Advisory Services, Inc.

Rosy earnings and AI

Likewise, Axon beat analysts’ estimates in its Nov. 7 earnings results, with officials touting its “AI era plan” and raising earnings guidance, Goldberg said.

Axon and Palantir stocks were up 38% and 22%, respectively, from Nov. 5 to Nov. 20, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Some companies benefited from a combination of policy and earnings, experts said.

Rows of servers fill Data Hall B at Facebook’s Fort Worth Data Center in Texas.

Paul Moseley/Fort Worth Star-Telegram/Tribune News Service via Getty Images

Take Vistra Corp. (VST), an energy provider, for example. The company’s stock jumped 27% after Election Day.

Vistra is in talks with large data centers — or “hyperscalers” — in Texas, Pennsylvania and Ohio to build or upgrade gas and nuclear plants, Stacey Doré, Vistra’s chief strategy and sustainability officer, said on the company’s Q3 earnings call Nov. 7.

Tech companies are building more and more such data centers to fuel the AI revolution — and need to source increasing amounts of energy to run them.

The ‘Elon Musk premium’

President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk talk ring side during the UFC 309 event at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 16, 2024 in New York.

Chris Unger | Ufc | Getty Images

But Tesla stock has additional tailwinds, experts said.

For one, Trump wants to end a $7,500 federal tax credit for EVs. Scrapping that policy is expected to hurt Tesla’s EV rivals.

Tesla has also been developing technology for driverless vehicles. In Tesla’s recent earnings call, Musk said he’d use his influence in Trump’s administration to establish a “federal approval process for autonomous vehicles.”

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Student loan legal battles delay SAVE borrowers’ path to forgiveness

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Matthias Ritzmann | The Image Bank | Getty Images

With the Biden administration’s new student loan repayment plan is tied up in legal battles, millions of borrowers have had their monthly payments put on hold.

The break from the bills is likely a relief to the many federal student loan borrowers enrolled in the Saving on a Valuable Education plan, known as SAVE. But it may also be causing them anxiety over the fact that they won’t get credit on their timeline to debt forgiveness.

For example, those also enrolled in the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program, who are entitled to loan cancellation after 10 years, have seen their journey toward that relief halted during the forbearance.

“Borrowers are frustrated about the delay toward forgiveness,” said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. “They feel like they’ve been waiting for Godot.”

Here’s what borrowers enrolled in SAVE should know about the delay to debt cancellation.

Delay could stretch on for months

In October, the U.S. Department of Education said that roughly 8 million federal student loan borrowers will remain in an interest-free forbearance while the courts decide the fate of the SAVE plan.

A federal court issued an injunction earlier this year preventing the Education Department from implementing parts of the SAVE plan, which the Biden administration had described as the most affordable repayment plan in history. Under SAVE’s terms, many people expected to see their monthly bills cut in half. 

The forbearance is supposed to help borrowers who were counting on those lower monthly bills. But unlike the Covid-era pause on federal student loan payments, this forbearance does not bring borrowers closer to debt forgiveness under an income-driven repayment plan or Public Service Loan Forgiveness.

Adding to borrowers’ annoyance is that “those enrolled in the SAVE Plan were not given the choice of forbearance,” said Elaine Rubin, director of corporate communications at Edvisors, which helps students navigate college costs and borrowing. If borrowers want to stay in SAVE, they can’t opt out of this pause.

Borrowers enrolled in PSLF are especially concerned, Kantrowitz said. That program requires borrowers to work in public service while they’re repaying their student loans.

“They have been working in a qualifying job, but aren’t making progress toward forgiveness,” he said. “Some borrowers are working a job they hate, but are sticking with it in the expectation of qualifying for forgiveness. Others are close to retirement and don’t want to have to work past their normal retirement age just to get the forgiveness.”

What borrowers can do

Despite the delay toward forgiveness, there are still a few good reasons for borrowers to stay enrolled in SAVE, experts say. During the forbearance, borrowers are excused from payments and interest on their debt does not accrue.

Keep in mind: Even if you make payments under SAVE during the forbearance, your loan servicer will just apply that money toward future payments owed once the pause ends, the Education Department says.

If you’re eager to be back on your way to debt cancellation, you have options.

You may be able switch into another income-driven repayment plan that is still available. Under that new plan, you may have to start making payments again. Yet if you earn under around $20,000 as a single person, your monthly payment could still be $0, and therefore you might not lose anything by switching, Kantrowitz said.

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Changing plans might be especially appealing to those who are very close to crossing the finish line to debt forgiveness and just want to see their balance wiped away, experts said. (You’ll likely be placed in a processing forbearance for a period while your loan servicer makes that switch. During that time, you will get credit toward forgiveness.)

The Education Department is also offering those who’ve been working in public service for 10 years the chance to “buy back” certain months in their payment history. This allows borrowers to make payments to cover previous months for which they didn’t get credit. But to be eligible for the option, the purchased months need to bring you to the 120 payments required for loan forgiveness.

“The buyback option might be eliminated under the Trump administration,” Kantrowitz said. “So, if you want to use it, you should use it now.”

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The must-have gift of the season may be a ‘dupe’

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Caiaimage/Paul Bradbury | Caiaimage | Getty Images

‘Tis the season for giving… dupes?

Buying a dupe — short for duplicates — rose to the top of this year’s holiday wish-lists. A dupe gift is a gift that is a cheaper alternative to a more expensive, branded item. They were largely kept under the radar until recently because a “fake” was dubbed inferior to the real thing, but a lot has changed.

In some cases these brand imitators are now even preferred to their pricier counterparts.

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This year, 79% of consumers said they would buy a dupe as a gift for their loved ones for the holidays, according to a survey of more than 1,000 shoppers by CouponCabin.

More than half — 51% — of those that the coupon site polled said dupes are better than the original.

Even when consumers can get the real thing, nearly 33% of adults intentionally purchased a dupe of a premium product at some point, a separate report by Morning Consult also found. The business intelligence company polled more than 2,000 adults in early October.

When is a dupe an appropriate gift? 

Before you buy a dupe, think about who you’re shopping for, experts say. 

For instance, some family members or friends might especially appreciate a dupe for what it is, said Ellyn Briggs, a brands analyst at Morning Consult. 

“It’s kind of a badge of honor for young people to get a dupe,” she said.

On the other hand, you risk disappointing someone if they have been asking for a specific product for a while, said Melanie Lowe, CouponCabin’s savings expert

If that is the case, consider the cost of the name-brand item and assess if it is within budget. The key is to know when to splurge or save, Lowe said.

“If you’re talking about a product that you’ll use daily… invest in the original,” Lowe said. “That purchase is usually worth it.”

Alternatively, “if it seems appropriate in the situation — if it is a more light-hearted gift — you can definitely go the dupe route,” she said. 

‘It’s a dupe for a reason’

While some shoppers take pride in buying dupes, roughly 86% of shoppers have been disappointed by their purchase of a dupe, CouponCabin found. 

“It’s a dupe for a reason,” said Lauren Beitelspacher, professor of marketing at Babson College. “We don’t know where it’s made, who is making it or the quality.”

Visa's View on the Holiday Shopping Season

Shopping secondhand this season

Consumers should make the same value considerations when buying secondhand, which has also become more popular, even for gifting.

Three in four shoppers said that giving secondhand gifts has become more accepted over the past year — notching a 7% increase from the year before, according to the 2024 OfferUp recommerce report. OfferUp, an online marketplace for buying and selling new and used items, polled 1,500 adults in July.

The majority, or 83%, of shoppers are also open to receiving secondhand gifts this holiday season, the report found.

Shoppers have increasingly turned to resale for a number of reasons, including value, sustainability and as a means to secure hard-to-find luxury items. Because secondhand shopping is considered eco-friendly, it’s also become more socially acceptable. OfferUp’s report credited Generation Z for driving a shift in mindset.

“The stigma around secondhand gifting is rapidly diminishing,” said Todd Dunlap, OfferUp’s CEO. 

However, the same buyer-beware mentality applies, cautioned Babson’s Beitelspacher, especially if you are ordering secondhand goods online. “You might not get what you want,” she said.

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