JPMorgan Chase CEO and Chairman Jamie Dimon gestures as he speaks during the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee oversight hearing on Wall Street firms, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., on Dec. 6, 2023.
Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters
Buried in a roughly 200-page quarterly filing from JPMorgan Chase last month were eight words that underscore how contentious the bank’s relationship with the government has become.
The lender disclosed that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau could punish JPMorgan for its role in Zelle, the giant peer-to-peer digital payments network. The bank is accused of failing to kick criminal accounts off its platform and failing to compensate some scam victims, according to people who declined to be identified speaking about an ongoing investigation.
In response, JPMorgan issued a thinly veiled threat: “The firm is evaluating next steps, including litigation.”
The prospect of a bank suing its regulator would’ve been unheard of in an earlier era, according to policy experts, mostly because corporations used to fear provoking their overseers. That was especially the case for the American banking industry, which needed hundreds of billions of dollars in taxpayer bailouts to survive after irresponsible lending and trading activities caused the 2008 financial crisis, those experts say.
But a combination of factors in the intervening years has created an environment where banks and their regulators have never been farther apart.
Trade groups say that in the aftermath of the financial crisis, banks became easy targets for populist attacks from Democrat-led regulatory agencies. Those on the side of regulators point out that banks and their lobbyists increasingly lean on courts in Republican-dominated districts to fend off reform and protect billions of dollars in fees at the expense of consumers.
“If you go back 15 or 20 years, the view was it’s not particularly smart to antagonize your regulator, that litigating all this stuff is just kicking the hornet’s nest,” said Tobin Marcus, head of U.S. policy at Wolfe Research.
“The disparity between how ambitious [President Joe] Biden’s regulators have been and how conservative the courts are, at least a subset of the courts, is historically wide,” Marcus said. “That’s created so many opportunities for successful industry litigation against regulatory proposals.”
Assault on fees
Those forces collided this year, which started out as one of the most consequential for bank regulation since the post-2008 reforms that curbed Wall Street risk-taking, introduced annual stress tests and created the industry’s lead antagonist, the CFPB.
In the final months of the Biden administration, efforts from a half-dozen government agencies were meant to slash fees on credit card late payments, debit transactions and overdrafts. The industry’s biggest threat was the Basel Endgame, a sweeping proposal to force big banks to hold tens of billions of dollars more in capital for activities like trading and lending.
“The industry is facing an onslaught of regulatory and potential legislative change,” Marianne Lake, head of JPMorgan’s consumer bank, warned investors in May.
JPMorgan’s disclosure about the CFPB probe into Zelle comes after years of grilling by Democrat lawmakers over financial crimes on the platform. Zelle was launched in 2017 by a bank-owned firm called Early Warning Services in response to the threat from peer-to-peer networks including PayPal.
The vast majority of Zelle activity is uneventful; of the $806 billion that flowed across the network last year, only $166 million in transactions was disputed as fraud by customers of JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, the three biggest players on the platform.
But the three banks collectively reimbursed just 38% of those claims, according to a July Senate report that looked at disputed unauthorized transactions.
Banks are typically on the hook to reimburse fraudulent Zelle payments that the customer didn’t give permission for, but usually don’t refund losses if the customer is duped into authorizing the payment by a scammer, according to the Electronic Fund Transfer Act.
A JPMorgan payments executive told lawmakers in July that the bank actually reimburses 100% of unauthorized transactions; the discrepancy in the Senate report’s findings is because bank personnel often determine that customers have authorized the transactions.
Amid the scrutiny, the bank began warning Zelle users on the Chase app to “Stay safe from scams” and added disclosures that customers won’t likely be refunded for bogus transactions.
JPMorgan declined to comment for this article.
Dimon in front
The company, which has grown to become the largest and most profitable American bank in history under CEO Jamie Dimon, is at the fore of several other skirmishes with regulators.
Thanks to his reputation guiding JPMorgan through the 2008 crisis and last year’s regional banking upheaval, Dimon may be one of few CEOs with the standing to openly criticize regulators. That was highlighted this year when Dimon led a campaign, both public and behind closed doors, to weaken the Basel proposal.
In May, at JPMorgan’s investor day, Dimon’s deputies made the case that Basel and other regulations would end up harming consumers instead of protecting them.
The cumulative effect of pending regulation would boost the cost of mortgages by at least $500 a year and credit card rates by 2%; it would also force banks to charge two-thirds of consumers for checking accounts, according to JPMorgan.
The message: banks won’t just eat the extra costs from regulation, but instead pass them on to consumers.
While all of these battles are ongoing, the financial industry has racked up several victories so far.
Some contend the threat of litigation helped convince the Federal Reserve to offer a new Basel Endgame proposal this month that roughly cuts in half the extra capital that the largest institutions would be forced to hold, among other industry-friendly changes.
It’s not even clear if the watered-down version of the proposal, a long-in-the-making response to the 2008 crisis, will ever be implemented because it won’t be finalized until well after U.S. elections.
If Republican candidate Donald Trump wins, the rules might be further weakened or killed outright, and even under a Kamala Harris administration, the industry could fight the regulation in court.
That’s been banks’ approach to the CFPB credit card rule, which aimed to cap late fees at $8 per incident and was set to go into effect in May.
A last-ditch effort from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and bank trade groups successfully delayed its implementation when Judge Mark Pittman of the Northern District of Texas sided with the industry, granting a freeze of the rule.
‘Venue shopping’
A key playbook for banks has been to file cases in conservative jurisdictions where they are likely to prevail, according to Lori Yue, a Columbia Business School associate professor who has studied the interplay between corporations and the judicial system.
The Northern District of Texas feeds into the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, which is “well-known for its friendliness to industry lawsuits against regulators,” Yue said.
“Venue-shopping like this has become well-established corporate strategy,” Yue said. “The financial industry has been particularly active this year in suing regulators.”
Since 2017, nearly two-thirds of the lawsuits filed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce challenging federal regulations have been in courts under the 5th Circuit, according to an analysis by Accountable US.
Industries dominated by a few large players — from banks to airlines, pharmaceutical companies and energy firms — tend to have well-funded trade organizations that are more likely to resist regulators, Yue added.
The polarized environment, where weakened federal agencies are undermined by conservative courts, ultimately preserves the advantages of the largest corporations, according to Brian Graham, co-founder of bank consulting firm Klaros.
“It’s really bad in the long run, because it locks in place whatever the regulations have been, while the reality is that the world is changing,” Graham said. “It’s what happens when you can’t adopt new regulations because you’re terrified that you’ll get sued.”
— With data visualizations by CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes.
China’s electric car price war shows little sign of letting up, putting more pressure on companies to survive. Tesla ‘s China sales fell by 15% in May from a year ago, China Passenger Car Association data showed. BYD , in contrast, reported a 14% year-on-year sales increase as it held onto first place in the market by volume, but even it had to announce sharp discounts as sales growth slowed from April’s pace. “We expect additional price competition in the coming weeks as BYD is still lagging behind its sales target,” said a team of analyst led by CLSA analyst Xiao Feng in a report Wednesday. While the analysts still have a high conviction, with an outperform rating on BYD’s Hong Kong-listed shares, they see Geely as the ”best positioned” for investors as it is striking the optimal balance with its internal business structure and competing on vehicle price. CLSA has a price target of 483 Hong Kong dollars ($61.55) on BYD, and a 23 HKD target on Geely, also listed in Hong Kong. That’s upside of nearly 20%, and 28%, respectively, from Friday’s close. Geely is a large conglomerate with electric vehicle brands Galaxy, Zeekr and Lynk and Co., which share some of the same tech and manufacturing systems. “Geely’s Galaxy NEV brand has successfully targeted BYD’s popular models with better specs and lower prices,” Macquarie analysts said in a report Thursday, citing a call with an auto dealer who manages dealerships for BYD, Geely and Xpeng in the relatively affluent Suzhou region near Shanghai. “The expert believes Geely’s success will continue, as it is still ramping up new models to compete with BYD’s entire model line-up,” the report said. The Macquarie analysts have a price target of 22 HKD on Geely and rate the stock outperform. But they like U.S.-listed electric car startup Xpeng even more, with a $24 price target. Xpeng is likely to benefit from near-term market share gains given its advanced driver assist system and upcoming car models, the analysts said. The latest delivery data showed Xpeng delivered more than 30,000 cars in May for a seventh straight month, a rare feat among its immediate peers. The company last month also launched a new car under its lower-priced Mona brand. Among publicly listed new energy vehicle companies, a category that includes battery-only and hybrid-powered cars, Leapmotor and Li Auto have proven relatively stable, each with deliveries of more than 40,000 vehicles in May. Both companies have Hong Kong listings, while Li Auto also trades in New York. “Through a continuously expanding product matrix and cost-effective models, Leapmotor has achieved a stable market share in the Chinese mass EV market and has strong growth potential,” the CLSA analysts said. They have a price target of 72 HKD, or more than 30% upside from Friday’s close. Leapmotor reported a net loss in the first quarter, however, compared with profit in the fourth quarter. But Li Auto maintained profitability in the first quarter, according to results released on May 29. “We still see ample upside as a better-than-feared 1Q should inspire investor conviction about sequential recovery in 2Q,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in a May 29 report. They have a price target of $36, for upside of more than 20% from Thursday’s close. “The management team has found its pace for a steady and solid comeback, underpinning a more material resurgence of volume/margins into 2H25 amid new model launches,” the analysts added. “Li Auto’s premium model lineup can steer clear of the fierce pricing competition in the mass market.” Li Auto is best known for its SUVs that come with a gas tank for extending the battery’s driving range. Prices start around 244,000 yuan ($34,000). Industry giant BYD in contrast now sells some cars at 55,800 yuan, with most models falling in the 100,000 yuan to 200,000 yuan price range. The company also has a high-end sub-brand called Yangwang, which prices cars at well above 1 million yuan. Analysts that still like the stock see potential in BYD’s overseas expansion. The narrative on BYD among European investors “sounds more optimistic,” contrary to more cautious sentiment in China following the automaker’s recent price promotions, JPMorgan’s Nick Lai, head of Asia Pacific auto research said in a report Wednesday. Lai and his team also cited conversations with senior BYD management in London in the last week. “All in all, we retain our long-term positive view on the company and believe the (earnings) contribution from the overseas market and BYD’s premium portfolio will increasingly play an important role,” the JPMorgan analysts said. “We estimate that BYD’s overseas business and premium brands will together contribute over 40% of its vehicle earnings in 2025 (up from 20-25% last year) even though they account for only about 20% of volume.” The analysts rate BYD overweight, with a price target of 600 HKD. However, the risk of a flood of cheap cars into markets such as Europe have prompted tariff increases. In China, official commentary is also sounding the alarm about excessive competition. “We believe an end to the current price war will come down to simple economics,” the Macquarie analysts said, pointing out that production capacity for both electric and traditional vehicles is more than 50 million units, well above the annual wholesale volume of 25 million to 27 million vehicles. “Thus, the market will likely stabilize either via higher demand or right-sized capacity and consolidation,” the analysts said. “We believe this may take at least another three to five years.” — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Check out the companies making the biggest moves midday: Petco Health — The retailer slumped 22% after losing 4 cents per share in the fiscal first quarter, twice the 2-cent loss that analysts had estimated, based on FactSet data. Revenue of $1.49 billion missed the Street’s $1.50 billion consensus, while same-store sales dropped 1.3%, worse than the 0.6% decline forecast by analysts. Tesla — The EV maker added more than 6%, a day after plunging 14% as CEO Elon Musk and President Donald Trump publicly feuded . Broadcom — Shares of the chipmaker dipped 2.7% on lackluster free cash flow for the second quarter. Broadcom reported free cash flow of $6.41 billion. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were looking for $6.98 billion. Still, several analysts covering the stock raised their price targets. ABM Industries — Shares fell 11% after the facilities management company reported mixed results for its second quarter. Its adjusted earnings of 86 per share was in line with expectations, while its revenue of $2.11 billion topped the FactSet consensus estimate of $2.06 billion. ABM Industries also reiterated its earnings guidance for the year. Circle Internet Group — The stablecoin company popped 38%, following its Thursday debut on the New York Stock Exchange. Circle soared 168% in its first day of trading . Lululemon — The athleisure company pulled back 20% after its second-quarter outlook missed analyst estimates. CFO Meghan Frank also said on a call that Lululemon plans on taking “strategic price increases, looking item by item across our assortment” to mitigate the impact of higher tariffs. G-III Apparel Group — The apparel company tumbled 15% on much weaker-than-expected earnings guidance for the second quarter. The company sees earnings per share in a range of 2 cents to 12 cents. Analysts had estimated earnings of around 48 cents per share, according to FactSet. DocuSign — The electronic signature stock plunged 19% after the company cut its full-year billings forecast. Billings for the fiscal first quarter also came in lower than expected. Braze — Shares of the customer engagement platforms provider fell 13% on disappointing guidance. Braze guided for second-quarter adjusted earnings of 2 to 3 cents per share. Analysts polled by FactSet called for 9 cents per share. Its first-quarter results beat estimates. Quanex Building Products — The maker of windows and doors and other construction materials soared 18%, the most since September, after earning an adjusted 60 cents per share in its fiscal second quarter versus analysts’ consensus estimate of 47 cents, on revenue of $452 million against the Street’s $439 million, FactSet data showed. Adjusted EBITDA also topped forecasts. Samsara — Shares shed 5% after the software company projected revenue growth to slow. Samsara guided for second-quarter revenue to increase between $371 million and $373 million, up from the $367 million in the first quarter. That would be a slowdown on both a sequential and year-over-year basis. Solaris Energy Infrastructure — The oil and natural gas equipment and service provider rallied 10% after Barclays initiated research coverage with an overweight rating and $42 price target. “Solaris is the leader in distributed power with almost 2 GW of capacity to be added by 2027 with 67% allocated towards data centers on long term contracts,” the bank said.
A sign in German that reads “part of the UBS group” in Basel on May 5, 2025.
Fabrice Coffrini | AFP | Getty Images
The Swiss government on Friday proposed strict new capital rules that would require banking giant UBS to hold an additional $26 billion in core capital, following its 2023 takeover of stricken rival Credit Suisse.
The measures would also mean that UBS will need to fully capitalize its foreign units and carry out fewer share buybacks.
“The rise in the going-concern requirement needs to be met with up to USD 26 billion of CET1 capital, to allow the AT1 bond holdings to be reduced by around USD 8 billion,” the government said in a Friday statement, referring to UBS’ holding of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds.
The Swiss National Bank said it supported the measures from the government as they will “significantly strengthen” UBS’ resilience.
“As well as reducing the likelihood of a large systemically important bank such as UBS getting into financial distress, this measure also increases a bank’s room for manoeuvre to stabilise itself in a crisis through its own efforts. This makes it less likely that UBS has to be bailed out by the government in the event of a crisis,” SNB said in a Friday statement.
‘Too big to fail’
UBS has been battling the specter of tighter capital rules since acquiring the country’s second-largest bank at a cut-price following years of strategic errors, mismanagement and scandals at Credit Suisse.
The shock demise of the banking giant also brought Swiss financial regulator FINMA under fire for its perceived scarce supervision of the bank and the ultimate timing of its intervention.
Swiss regulators argue that UBS must have stronger capital requirements to safeguard the national economy and financial system, given the bank’s balance topped $1.7 trillion in 2023, roughly double the projected Swiss economic output of last year. UBS insists it is not “too big to fail” and that the additional capital requirements — set to drain its cash liquidity — will impact the bank’s competitiveness.
At the heart of the standoff are pressing concerns over UBS’ ability to buffer any prospective losses at its foreign units, where it has, until now, had the duty to back 60% of capital with capital at the parent bank.
Higher capital requirements can whittle down a bank’s balance sheet and credit supply by bolstering a lender’s funding costs and choking off their willingness to lend — as well as waning their appetite for risk. For shareholders, of note will be the potential impact on discretionary funds available for distribution, including dividends, share buybacks and bonus payments.
“While winding down Credit Suisse’s legacy businesses should free up capital and reduce costs for UBS, much of these gains could be absorbed by stricter regulatory demands,” Johann Scholtz, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, said in a note preceding the FINMA announcement.
“Such measures may place UBS’s capital requirements well above those faced by rivals in the United States, putting pressure on returns and reducing prospects for narrowing its long-term valuation gap. Even its long-standing premium rating relative to the European banking sector has recently evaporated.”
The prospect of stringent Swiss capital rules and UBS’ extensive U.S. presence through its core global wealth management division comes as White House trade tariffs already weigh on the bank’s fortunes. In a dramatic twist, the bank lost its crown as continental Europe’s most valuable lender by market capitalization to Spanish giant Santander in mid-April.