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JPMorgan top economist says Fed should cut rates by half point

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Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist of JPMorgan Securities, listens during a Bloomberg Television interview in New York on March 6, 2018.

Christopher Goodney | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting, according to JPMorgan’s Michael Feroli.

“We think there’s a good case that they should get back to neutral as soon as possible,” the firm’s chief U.S. economist told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Thursday, adding that the high point of the central bank’s neutral policy setting is around 4%, or 150 basis points below where it is currently. “We think there’s a good case for hurrying up in their pace of rate cuts.”

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 39% chance that the Fed’s target range for the federal funds rate will be lowered by a half percentage point to 4.75% to 5% from the current 5.25% to 5.50%. A quarter-percentage-point reduction to a range of 5% to 5.25% shows odds of about 61%.

“If you wait until inflation is already back to 2%, you’ve probably waited too long,” Feroli also said. “While inflation is still a little above target, unemployment is probably getting a little above what they think is consistent with full employment. Right now, you have risks to both employment and inflation, and you can always reverse course if it turns out that one of those risks is developing.”

His comments come as August marked the weakest month for private payrolls growth since January 2021. This follows the unemployment rate inching higher to 4.3% in July, triggering a recession indicator known as the Sahm Rule.

Even still, Feroli said he does not believe the economy is “unraveling.”

“If the economy were collapsing, I think you’d have an argument for going more than 50 at the next FOMC meeting,” the economist continued.

The Fed will make its decision about where rates are headed from here on Sept. 17-18.

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Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: HIMS, TEM, FANG

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Anthropic closes in on $3.5 billion funding round

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Dario Amodei, Anthropic CEO, speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box outside the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 21st, 2025.

Gerry Miller | CNBC

Anthropic is in talks to raise a $3.5 billion funding round, significantly more than the amount previously expected, CNBC has confirmed.

The round would roughly triple the artificial intelligence startup’s valuation to $61.5 billion, according to two sources familiar with the deal, who asked not to be named because the details aren’t public. Lightspeed Ventures is leading the funding, with participation from General Catalyst and others, the sources said.

The financing, which was first reported by the Wall Street Journal, signals continued investor demand for top-tier AI companies, even in the face of potential disruption from China’s DeepSeek. Anthropic is backed by Amazon and Google, and had initially set out to raise $2 billion, according to a source.

Anthropic declined to comment.

The company’s last private market valuation was $18 billion. Amazon has poured $8 billion into the startup.

Anthropic was founded by early OpenAI employees and is the creator of the popular chatbot Claude. Earlier Monday, Anthropic released what it says is it’s “most intelligent AI model yet. Its so-called hybrid model combines an ability to reason — or stopping to think about complex answers — with a traditional model that spits out answers in real time.

WATCH: Anthropic unveils newest AI model

Amazon-backed Anthropic unveils newest AI-model

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Jamie Dimon calls U.S. government ‘inefficient,’ touts Elon Musk’s DOGE effort

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Watch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Monday said the U.S. government is inefficient and in need of work as the Trump administration terminates thousands of federal employees and works to dismantle agencies including the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Dimon was asked by CNBC’s Leslie Picker whether he supported efforts by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. He declined to give what he called a “binary” response, but made comments that supported the overall effort.

“The government is inefficient, not very competent, and needs a lot of work,” Dimon told Picker. “It’s not just waste and fraud, its outcomes.”

The Trump administration’s effort to rein in spending and scrutinize federal agencies “needs to be done,” Dimon added.

“Why are we spending the money on these things? Are we getting what we deserve? What should we change?” Dimon said. “It’s not just about the deficit, its about building the right policies and procedures and the government we deserve.”

Dimon said if DOGE overreaches with its cost-cutting efforts or engages in activity that’s not legal, “the courts will stop it.”

“I’m hoping it’s quite successful,” he said.

In the wide-ranging interview, Dimon also addressed his company’s push to have most workers in office five days a week, as well as his views on the Ukraine conflict, tariffs and the U.S. consumer.

Watch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon

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