Connect with us

Accounting

KPMG Global Economic Outlook forecasts slight global GDP growth

Published

on

KPMG International forecasts a slight increase in global GDP growth in 2025, followed by a dampening in 2026 due to the incoming U.S. administration’s expected policies.

The December 2024 KPMG Global Economic Outlook reflects the continued geopolitical and economic uncertainty slowing down central banks efforts to return to sustainable growth. As such, it anticipates GDP growth picking up from 3.1% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025, before decreasing to 3.0% in 2026.

KPMG forecasts the pace of inflation will continue cooling between now (4.5%) and mid-2025 (3.5%). “Thereafter, the forecast depends heavily on the pace of tariffs and whether we see a full-blown trade war erupt,” the report reads, citing elevated geopolitical risk and the outcomes of the U.S. election, such as inflationary trade, immigration policies and tariffs. “Bond yields have already moved up in response to fears of mounting federal debt and higher inflation. Any major shift in tariffs in the U.S. could trigger retaliatory measures.”

kpmg-sign.jpg

Sean Gallup/Getty Images Europe

“The data in our latest report highlights the concerted effort that was being made by central banks throughout the world to control the cost of living and inflation challenges facing everyone, including businesses, right now,” Regina Mayor, global head of Clients & Markets at KPMG International, said in a statement. “While there was cautious optimism of a return to eventual sustainable growth, we’re now in a ‘wait and see’ phase with much depending on a future potentially driven by reciprocal tariffs.”

KPMG sees mergers and acquisition activity poised to increase with lower rates and stores of excess capital in the private equity space. However, “policy uncertainty, anti-corporate sentiment and protectionist policies” could curb large cross-border deals as heightened policy uncertainty tends to reduce the number and speed of transactions.

Fiscal policy may be more stimulative, the report says, with market participants expecting a new wave of stimulus in the form of pensions, healthcare and defense. Tax cuts are also expected to be extended in the U.S., but it remains to be seen how multinationals outside of the U.S. will be treated.

“Our latest forecast highlights the tightrope political and business leaders are now walking,” Benjamin Shoesmith, senior economist at KPMG US, said in a statement. “For many central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, we’re seeing a shift from the battle against inflation to guiding economies toward a soft landing. It’s a monumental challenge balancing price stability and employment without quashing GDP growth. The tailwind from lower rates will benefit firms and consumers and likely spark mergers and acquisitions activity. Central banks must stay the course and avoid the temptation to cut interest rates too early or too fast as this could derail progress.”

Shoesmith said that while he expects growth nearing pre-prandemic rates, volatility will also rise. He said leaders’ top concerns are policy uncertainty as a result of the U.S. election, challenges of artificial intelligence, more frequent and adverse weather events and elevated geopolitical risk.

“Our long-term view is that we can see a return to more sustainable growth that edges closer to pre-pandemic levels, but with two significant caveats,” Shoesmith continued. “The first is that central banks will need to hold their nerve and avoid the temptation to pivot on policies before they pay off. The second — and arguably most profound caveat — is the current geopolitical crisis. If the challenges facing the Middle East and Ukraine continue to deepen, leaders could be faced with a fresh set of dilemmas that run far deeper than GDP.”

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Accounting

IRS expands Tax Pro Account, launches enforcement campaign

Published

on

The Internal Revenue Service is adding more features to the Tax Pro Account, Business Tax Account and Individual Online Account, while announcing a new enforcement campaign, even as it faces the threat of major cutbacks under the incoming Trump administration.

IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel discussed the new enforcement effort and technology improvements during a quarterly update Thursday on the IRS’s strategic operating plan, as he fended off questions from reporters about the future of the agency as it faces the prospect of $20 billion in budget cuts and a new IRS commissioner, Billy Long, who was named by Trump to replace him three years before his term expires. 

The Tax Pro Account helps tax professionals manage their authorization relationship with taxpayers, view the taxpayers’ information and act on the taxpayers’ behalf. New features include

  • The ability to view individual and business taxpayer payment activity; 
  • A new virtual assistant that allows tax professionals access to an automated chatbot to resolve tax issues, with the ability to escalate to live chat for help with collection related issues; and, 
  • The ability to view and act on behalf of individual taxpayers to set up and revise payment plans; and, 
  • Make up to five same day payments on behalf of authorized clients using a checking or savings account.

“We’ve also made several enhancements to the tax professional online account to expand the work tax pros can do on behalf of taxpayers,” said Werfel. “Tax professionals are vitally important to the nation’s tax system. We have taken some initial steps with this tool. We’ve added the ability for tax professionals to easily navigate secure two-way messaging to digitally communicate with the IRS on behalf of their clients. There is also a new virtual assistant, which allows tax professionals access to an automated chat bot to help them resolve tax issues. Tax professionals can escalate to live chat for collection-related issues for assistance. These are important steps, but we’ve heard from tax professionals, and we know we need to do more with this important tool.”

When fully developed, the Tax Pro Account will become a stronger online tool, including the ability to initiate power of attorney and tax information authorizations for business taxpayers that they can review and approve in their Business Tax Account, link and manage business Centralized Authorization File access, view refund and audit status for individual and business taxpayers and much more. 

Business Tax Accounts

As part of its Digital First Initiative, the IRS is expanding the features in Business Tax Account, an online self-service tool for business taxpayers. C corporations can now activate a Business Tax Account, bringing the total number of business entities eligible for this online self-service tool into the millions. 

“The IRS has further expanded its Business Tax Account tool to include C corporations,” said Werfel. “That means millions of businesses now qualify to use this self service tool.”

Some of the other recent additions include: 

  • Authorized individuals of C corporations and S corporations who can legally act on behalf of their corporation are now able to view and pay tax balances and Federal Tax Deposits. 
  • The IRS also introduced a new feature that helps to speed up the lending process by providing sole proprietors and authorized individuals with access to the long-standing IRS Income Verification Express Service to approve or reject a tax transcript authorization request from a lending company. 
  • Business taxpayers can now access available tax returns, account and most entity transcripts in Spanish.

“IVES enables sole proprietors and authorized individuals to deal with the tax transcript authorization requests from lending companies, and we are also pleased that the Business Tax Account is now available in Spanish,” said Werfel.

 The changes follow upgrades in September enabling business taxpayers to view and submit balance-due payments.

The IRS has also expanded the types of Transcript Delivery System transcripts available to business taxpayers, historically an underserved population. Previously, taxpayers and their representatives had to call to request information not available through a TDS transcript. Customer service representatives would provide an internal print with the requested information, manually masking the personally identifiable information before providing the prints to the caller. Masking the transcripts was time consuming. Now taxpayers and their representatives can access these new transcripts through online self-help tools that include Business Tax Account and e-Services TDS.

Business Entity and Form 94X Series Tax Return transcripts are now available through TDS for tax professionals and reporting agents with access to TDS through e-Services. IRS employees can access these transcripts through the Employee User Portal, and authorized users of Business Tax Account can download these transcripts. Transcript expansion will continue in a phased approach through December 2026. Future releases will include the Form 990 series, Form 1041. Form 2290, Form 1042 and Form 706. And transcripts in Spanish. 

Individual Online Accounts

Taxpayers can also get more help for their personal accounts through the IRS Individual Online Account, Werfel noted. “For example, they can retrieve tax related information from a single source, including digital copies of notice and letters,” he added. “We have redesigned 247 of the most common notices, all of which are now available in the Individual Online Account. They can see their refund status and check updates on certain audits. They can access a complete overview of their account information, including detailed historical data. This is extremely helpful for people to have at tax time and throughout the year. They can access Identity Protection Services and a lien payoff calculator, and those who need help with a tax bill can apply for an installment agreement more easily by using smartphones or tablets.”

The online accounts are not the only way the IRS is helping to provide a better digital experience, he added. “Taxpayers now have access to more than 60 mobile adaptive forms, allowing them to fill out common tax forms on cell phones and tablet devices and then submit them to the IRS digitally,” said Werfel. “The three most recent forms feature save and draft capabilities, which allow taxpayers to start a form, save it and return to it later.” 

Enforcement campaign

Werfel also discussed the launch of a new enforcement campaign at the IRS aimed at improving taxpayer compliance among those with complex returns and those who intentionally evade tax responsibilities.

One of the issues the IRS is targeting involves the exploitation of deferred legal fees. The IRS has begun an examination campaign to address a tax deferral transaction where taxpayers, specifically plaintiff’s attorneys or law firms, fail to report legal fees earned from representing clients in litigation on a contingency fee basis.

The IRS noted that plaintiff’s attorneys or law firms representing clients in lawsuits on a contingency fee basis can receive up to 40% of the settlement amount that they then defer by entering an arrangement with a third party unrelated to the litigation, who then may distribute to the taxpayer in the future; generally, 20 years or more from the date of the settlement. The taxpayer fails to report the deferred contingency fees as income at the time the case is settled or when the funds are transferred to the third party. Instead, the taxpayer defers recognition of the income until the third party distributes the fees under the arrangement.

The goal of the new campaign is to ensure taxpayer compliance and consistent treatment of similarly situated taxpayers which requires the contingency fees be included in taxable income in the year the funds are transferred to the third party.

The IRS is also staying focused on offshore tax evasion through unreported financial accounts and structures, employing data analytics and other tools to spot various forms of offshore tax evasion. The agency is also encouraging whistleblowers to come forward and report on offshore tax evasion and other tax schemes by filing a whistleblower claim. The IRS pays awards to eligible individuals whose information can be attributed to taxes and other amounts collected. In fiscal year 2024, the IRS paid awards totaling approximately $123 million based on tax and other amounts collected of approximately $475 million attributable to whistleblower information.

“Our compliance work is protecting billions of dollars of revenue by enforcing laws already on the books, and we’re cracking down on terrorist financing and drug dealers through IRS Criminal Investigation’s work,” said Werfel. “The momentum from this historic work at the IRS is real, and we’re continuing to build on these successes month after month. We still have a long way to go to deliver the IRS the taxpayers deserve. But I firmly believe the agency is on the right path, and the agency is well positioned for continued modernization efforts, including those from the incoming administration.”

IRS Criminal Investigation

On the compliance front, IRS Criminal Investigation agents helped deliver convictions in several high-profile criminal cases, resulting in the recovery of billions of dollars and long prison sentences for dangerous criminals, he noted. 

The IRS has now recovered $4.7 billion from new initiatives underway during the period of its strategic operating plan, he added. “We have recovered $2.9 billion related to IRS Criminal Investigation work into tax and financial crimes, including drug trafficking, cyber crime and terrorist financing, and another $475 million in proceeds from criminal and civil cases,” said Werfel. 

The $4.7 billion figure also includes more than $1.3 billion from high income, high wealth individuals who have not paid overdue tax debts or filed tax returns. 

The IRS Criminal Investigation Division has worked on cases covering terrorist financing and drug trafficking, Werfel noted. These cases include an 18-year sentence for a fentanyl trafficker for attempting to support terrorist activity connected to ISIS. In two other cases, IRS CI efforts played a part in a nearly 20-year sentence for one drug dealer and netted nearly four years for another. 

Werfel also provided some updates on the IRS’s work on high income nonfilers who have not filed tax returns since 2017. The IRS has now collected $292 million from more than 28,000 nonfilers, an increase of $120 million since September. 

“These are cases where the IRS has received third-party information, such as Forms W-2 and 1099, where we see people receive income from between $400,000 and $1 million, and in some cases more than $1 million, but failed to do their basic civic duty under the law to file a tax return,” said Werfel. “This is an important effort. The nonfiler program ran sporadically since 2016 due to severe budget and staff limitations that did not allow these cases to be pursued. With additional funding, the IRS had the capacity to resume this core tax administration work earlier this year.”

Improving taxpayer service

Werfel believes it’s crucial to improve IRS technology, provide new tools, add more efficiency and continue the agency’s work on taxpayer service. 

“At the same time, we remain focused on improving taxpayer services and advancing our monetization efforts,” said Werfel. “Our work in these areas has made a world of difference for taxpayers during the past two tax seasons, and we believe taxpayers will continue to see benefits of our modernization work as we head into the 2025 filing season.”

Continue Reading

Accounting

The strategic value of a background in accounting

Published

on

A career in accounting may begin with balancing books and ensuring compliance, but as the business landscape continues to evolve, accountants are becoming top-level advisors and filling roles that have not traditionally existed. While many find fulfilling career paths within accounting firms, others may explore roles in various sectors. The skills honed in accounting — from analytical thinking, to financial acumen, to meticulous attention to detail — serve as a robust foundation for accountants to take leadership roles across the business and help drive strategy at companies in various sectors.

Throughout my career, I’ve realized time and time again how the accounting roles early in my professional experience have set me up for success across many aspects of business and finance. Our skill sets as accountants are incredibly valuable, whether in accounting firms or other business settings, especially for professionals looking to navigate leadership, foster innovation, and drive successful financial operations in any organization.

Establishing foundational leadership skills

The accounting profession is well-known for its rigorous expectations and demanding workloads at all job levels. Just say the phrase “busy season” and even a seasoned professional will have a slight feeling of dread. The skills that we take from these experiences, however, are invaluable.

Companies are constantly facing internal and external evolution, and my accounting background set me up to help my organization navigate these changes and take advantage of complex opportunities. As business leaders, we must adapt to meet these changes while maintaining continuity and progress. 

In my role, this means maintaining an unwavering focus on how to transform financial processes to help businesses optimize for efficiency. Doing this successfully requires:

  • Analytical skills to make sense of data that is necessary for strategy, decision-making and rationalizing return on investment.
  • Strategic and critical thinking skills to anticipate future challenges and opportunities for innovation — and develop the foresight to have the right tools to meet the needs that come next.
  • Attention to detail to ask the right questions to identify the problem statement and decide where changes are needed.
  • Adaptability to chaos to develop a comprehensive plan (and contingency plan) to deliver on objectives.
  • Relationship-building to develop strong partnerships with both internal and external stakeholders and ensure effective change management.

These are skills that accountants develop and hone throughout their professional careers.

The journey from accountant to business leader

Accountants are able to make significant strides in their work by nurturing a drive to continually learn and ask questions. In the words of Ted Lasso, “Be curious, not judgmental.” 

With my teams, I often talk about the need for continuous professional curiosity. This comes from my experience in accounting, where we performed ongoing analysis and had to constantly evolve the questions we were asking our clients. 

For professionals making the shift from a finance role to a more operational role or advancing within their organizations, marrying traditional audit professional skepticism with intellectual curiosity (combined with strong cross-functional partnerships) can lead to enhanced innovation and improved processes. 

Strengthening the profession from within and outside

It’s a great time to be in the accounting profession. As the industry evolves, it is exciting to be contributing to and helping define this new era of accounting.

One important contribution is making time to mentor younger professionals and aid in their development. Mentorship provides an opportunity for seasoned professionals to share the lessons we’ve learned from our own diverse career paths. Few things bring me more professional joy than witnessing someone motivated by their own curiosity create something truly transformative.

For accounting professionals who have transitioned into adjacent business roles, there are a multitude of ways to make an impact on the profession. For example, having an accounting background in the fintech sector can be greatly beneficial to companies developing products and solutions to support financial operations. Applying accounting insights to product development can help bridge the gaps between finance, technology and other business functions.

In addition to helping overcome knowledge gaps between accounting and technology, accountants can serve as key advocates for their profession, helping to ensure technology augments the role of accountants instead of replacing it, and advising on ways for firms to overcome resistance to tech adoption to improve efficiency and earn greater profit.

Carrying accounting skills forward

My experience in the accounting profession was essential for navigating my career path to where I am today: supporting other accounting professionals and an entire business to help deliver successful outcomes. 

By embracing the skills and experiences gained as accountants, professionals can find meaningful ways to continue contributing to the growth and scale of their companies — even in roles that extend beyond traditional accounting. 

Whether you choose to build your career within accounting firms or explore opportunities in other sectors, the foundational skills and experiences gained in accounting will serve you well in any leadership role you pursue.

Continue Reading

Accounting

Tax Pros should use AI to simplify and elevate their work

Published

on

Working in tax requires nuance. Week in and week out, professionals are asked to deliver reliable and timely interpretations of laws, regulations, and guidance. And, of course, details and accuracy are paramount. 

So, I think it’s fair for tax pros to wonder: Can I trust AI to support my work? 

We recently streamed a Bloomberg Tax panel discussion that focuses on this question. To address it, I sat down with Sharad Jha, managing director at Deloitte with more than 20 years of experience advising tax departments on technology and process transformation, and Chris Little, a lead product manager at Bloomberg Tax. 

It makes sense that some tax professionals have concerns about the risks of hallucinations and inaccuracies associated with this rapidly growing technology, while others worry they’ll be viewed as expendable if AI becomes widely adopted in the workplace. 

On the flipside, I’m hearing many more people engage in conversations about how they can use AI practically at work – and not in a passing sense. During our panel conversion, I shared that some of our clients are beginning to dip their toes in, while others are going as far as developing their own in-house AI solutions. 

A global trend toward AI use

As Sharad told us, large companies are “definitely” doing experimentation – and the industry at large is “being more deliberate” in figuring out how they can best leverage this groundbreaking technology.

If you’re still skeptical about AI, I’ve also got to tell you this: It isn’t a job killer in the sense that the technology will replace all human insights and expertise. But soon professionals will need to leverage AI in their day-to-day work to stay ahead of, or at least on par with, their peers. To this point, according to a report from the International Monetary Fund, nearly 40% of global teams are already exposed to AI, a number that jumps to about 60% in advanced economies.

The IRS and other tax authorities also are increasingly using artificial intelligence to capture tax revenue. Plus – and this is the kicker for tax professionals – nearly one-third (29%) of tax functions already are deploying generative AI, with another 26% of tax functions currently exploring its uses, according to the 2024 KPMG Chief Tax Officer outlook survey.

Tax professionals are harnessing AI in the workplace to simplify daily tasks, avoid manual errors, skip those long-standing but tedious Excel sheets, and get lightning-fast answers to industry questions instead of poring through volumes of text. So, while concerns are fair, I do think it’s also important to grasp the incredible benefits of AI, and to understand that you can use a vetted AI program to help you simplify and elevate your work as a tax professional – as long as the right processes and guardrails are in place. 

Using this technology safely and responsibly starts with choosing the right tool and learning how to use it. My advice is to select a trustworthy and quality product that’s grounded in your professional domain and supported by expert human oversight as well as the appropriate industry guardrails. 

My team has been developing AI-powered tools for over a decade, and we know that the “who” behind the tech really matters. Our engineers and data scientists work closely with subject matter experts to allow them to develop deep domain expertise. We also continually seek feedback from users through our Innovation Studio and other avenues. This ensures we build solutions that actually solve the challenges of tax professionals and easily integrate into their workflows. 

The writing is on the wall, and the potential benefits of AI are astounding. So, it’s important for tax professionals to talk about generative AI – and to use it at work. 

AI for tax department growth

There are 340,000 fewer certified public accountants working today versus five years ago, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So, many tax professionals are facing staffing shortages while managing mounting workloads in an already challenging industry. For today and tomorrow, AI can be a difference maker – a win-win for individuals and a stressed industry. 

Businesses that adopt trustworthy AI can lift the burden on overworked teams, providing efficiency-boosting support while potentially freeing up more time for strategic, high-value or growth-focused activities. And as new generations enter the workplace, a business’s embrace of new technology could help attract talent to fill vacancies. 

I encourage tax professionals to be open to learning about how trusted and quality AI products can save time, save money, and give you a competitive advantage.

Continue Reading

Trending