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Magic number to retire comfortably is $1.26 million in 2025: report

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There’s been a persistent gap between how much money savers are putting away and how much they think they will need once they retire.

Yet this year, many Americans are scaling back their expectations.

For 2025, the “magic number” to retire comfortably is down to an average $1.26 million, a $200,000 drop from the $1.46 million reported last year, according to a new study from Northwestern Mutual, which polled more than 4,600 adults in January.

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“Americans’ ‘magic number’ to retire comfortably has come down,” John Roberts, chief field officer at Northwestern Mutual, said in a statement. Inflation has receded, Roberts said, and as a result, people are adjusting their outlook.

The 2025 figure is roughly in line with estimates from 2023 and 2022, which were $1.27 million and $1.25 million, respectively.

However, that retirement goal is still high, Roberts added, “far beyond what many people have actually saved.”

‘Magic number’ vs. average retirement balances

Last year, positive market conditions helped propel retirement account balances near new highs. 

As of the fourth quarter of 2024, 401(k) and individual retirement account balances notched the second-highest averages on record, boosted by better savings behaviors and stock gains, according to the latest data from Fidelity Investments, the nation’s largest provider of 401(k) savings plans.

The average 401(k) balance was $131,700 in the fourth quarter, while the average IRA balance stood at $127,534, according to Fidelity.

No access to a 401(k)?

However, since then, U.S. markets have whipsawed. As of April 21, the S&P 500 is down roughly 10% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq Composite sank more than 15% in 2025. The Dow Jones Industrial Average pulled back 8%. 

“The 2025 stock market has not spared many savers,” said Winnie Sun, co-founder and managing director of Sun Group Wealth Partners, based in Irvine, California. “Your portfolio is likely lower than it was before the new year.”

Why retirement confidence is sinking

Workers today are largely on their own when it comes to their retirement security, which has also taken a toll on retirement confidence. “Notably, the current generation of retirees could be the last to use predictable sources of income such as pensions as the primary way they fund retirement,” Rita Assaf, vice president of retirement offerings at Fidelity Investments, said in a statement.

“The shift toward relying on retirement savings heightens the importance of grounding yourself in a financial plan as early as you can,” Assaf said.

Retirement rules of thumb

According to Fidelity, there are a few simple rules of thumb for retirement planning, such as saving 10 times your earnings by retirement age and the so-called 4% rule for retirement income, which suggests that retirees should be able to safely withdraw 4% of their investments, after adjusting for inflation, each year in retirement.

Other experts say there is no magic number for a retirement savings goal, but setting aside 15% of your yearly salary before taxes is a good place to start.

If your retirement date is still years away, “meet with an experienced financial advisor as soon as you can to evaluate your future income needs and put together a strategy sooner rather than later,” said Sun, a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council

Alternatively, if your retirement date is soon, “make sure your emergency fund is funded, tighten your spending, look into establishing a HELOC [home equity line of credit] if you have equity in your home as an emergency line, look for ways to bring in supplemental income while you can, and importantly, meet with an advisor to make sure you have a full picture of retirement will look like for you,” Sun said. 

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Personal Finance

Student loan borrowers still at risk of wage garnishment

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The Trump administration paused its plan to garnish Social Security benefits for those who have defaulted on their student loans — but says borrowers’ paychecks are still at risk.

“Wage garnishment will begin later this summer,” Ellen Keast, a U.S. Department of Education spokesperson, told CNBC.

Since the Covid pandemic began in March 2020, collection activity on federal student loans had mostly been on hold. The Biden administration focused on extending relief measures to struggling borrowers in the wake of the public health crisis and helping them to get current.

The Trump administration’s move to resume collection efforts and garnish wages of those behind on their student loans is a sharp turn away from that strategy. Officials have said that taxpayers shouldn’t be on the hook when people don’t repay their education debt.

“Borrowers should pay back the debts they take on,” said U.S. Secretary of Education Linda McMahon in a video posted on X on April 22.

Here’s what borrowers need to know about the Education Department’s current collection plans.

Social Security benefits are safe, for now

Keast said on Monday that the administration was delaying its plan to offset Social Security benefits for borrowers with a defaulted student loan.

Some older borrowers who were bracing for a reduced benefit check as early as Tuesday.

The Education Department previously said Social Security benefits could be garnished starting in June. Depending on details like their birth date and when they began receiving benefits, a recipient’s monthly Social Security check may arrive June 3, 11, 18 or 25 this year, according to the Social Security Administration.

More than 450,000 federal student loan borrowers age 62 and older are in default on their federal student loans and likely to be receiving Social Security benefits, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

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The administration’s announcement gives borrowers more time to try to get current, and to avoid a reduced benefit check down the line.

“The Trump Administration is committed to protecting Social Security recipients who oftentimes rely on a fixed income,” said Keast.

Wages are still at risk

The Education Dept. says defaulted student loan borrowers could see their wages garnished later this summer.

The agency can garnish up to 15% of your disposable, or after-tax, pay, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. By law, you must be left with at least 30 times the federal minimum hourly wage ($7.25) a week, which is $217.50, Kantrowitz said.

Borrowers in default will receive a 30-day notice before their wages are garnished, a spokesperson for the Education Department previously told CNBC.

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Trump pauses Social Security benefit cuts over defaulted student loans

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The U.S. Department of Education is seen on March 20, 2025 in Washington, DC. U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing to sign an executive order to abolish the Department of Education. 

Win Mcnamee | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The U.S. Department of Education is pausing its plan to garnish people’s Social Security benefits if they have defaulted on their student loans, a spokesperson for the agency tells CNBC.

“The Trump Administration is committed to protecting Social Security recipients who oftentimes rely on a fixed income,” said Ellen Keast, an Education Department spokesperson.

The development is an abrupt change in policy by the administration.

The Trump administration announced on April 21 that it would resume collection activity on the country’s $1.6 trillion student loan portfolio. For nearly half a decade, the government did not go after those who’d fallen behind as part of Covid-era policies.

The federal government has extraordinary collection powers on its student loans and it can seize borrowers’ tax refundspaychecks and Social Security retirement and disability benefits. Social Security recipients can see their checks reduced by up to 15% to pay back their defaulted student loan.

More than 450,000 federal student loan borrowers age 62 and older are in default on their federal student loans and likely to be receiving Social Security benefits, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

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What the national debt, deficit mean for your money

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The massive package of tax cuts House Republicans passed in May is expected to increase the U.S. debt by trillions of dollars — a sum that threatens to torpedo the legislation as the Senate starts to consider it this week.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the bill, as written, would add about $3.1 trillion to the national debt over a decade with interest, to a total $53 trillion. The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates a higher tally: $3.8 trillion, including interest and economic effects.

Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky was one of two Republicans to vote against the House measure, calling it a “debt bomb ticking” and noting that it “dramatically increases deficits in the near term.”

“Congress can do funny math — fantasy math — if it wants,” Massie said on the House floor on May 22. “But bond investors don’t.”

A handful of Republican Senators have also voiced concern about the bill’s potential addition to the U.S. debt load and other aspects of the legislation.

“The math doesn’t really add up,” Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kentucky, said Sunday on CBS.

The legislation comes as interest payments on U.S. debt have surpassed national spending on defense and represent the second-largest outlay behind Social Security. Federal debt as a percentage of gross domestic product, a measure of U.S. economic output, is already at an all-time high.

The notion of rising national debt may seem unimportant for the average person, but it can have a significant impact on household finances, economists said.

“I don’t think most consumers think about it at all,” said Tim Quinlan, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics. “They think, ‘It doesn’t really impact me.’ But I think the truth is, it absolutely does.”

Consumer loans would be ‘a lot more’ expensive

A much higher U.S. debt burden would likely cause consumers to “pay a lot more” to finance homes, cars and other common purchases, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.

“That’s the key link back to us as consumers, businesspeople and investors: The prospect that all this borrowing, the rising debt load, mean higher interest rates,” he said.

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The House legislation cuts taxes for households by about $4 trillion, most of which accrue for the wealthy. The bill offsets some of those tax cuts by slashing spending for safety-net programs like Medicaid and food assistance for lower earners.

Some Republicans and White House officials argue President Trump’s tariff policies would offset a big chunk of the tax cuts.

But economists say tariffs are an unreliable revenue generator — because a future president can undo them, and courts may take them off the books.

How rising debt impacts Treasury yields

U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) speaks to the media after the House narrowly passed a bill forwarding President Donald Trump’s agenda at the U.S. Capitol on May 22, 2025.

Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Ultimately, higher interest rates for consumers ties to perceptions of U.S. debt loads and their effect on U.S. Treasury bonds.

Common forms of consumer borrowing like mortgages and auto loans are priced based on yields for U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 10-year Treasury.

Yields (i.e., interest rates) for long-term Treasury bonds are largely dictated by market forces. They rise and fall based on supply and demand from investors.

The U.S. relies on Treasury bonds to fund its operations. The government must borrow, since it doesn’t take in enough annual tax revenue to pay its bills, what’s known as an annual “budget deficit.” It pays back Treasury investors with interest.

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If the Republican bill — called the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” — were to raise the U.S. debt and deficit by trillions of dollars, it would likely spook investors and Treasury demand may fall, economists said.

Investors would likely demand a higher interest rate to compensate for the additional risk that the U.S. government may not pay its debt obligations in a timely way down the road, economists said.

Interest rates priced to the 10-year Treasury “also have to go up because of the higher risk being taken,” said Philip Chao, chief investment officer and certified financial planner at Experiential Wealth based in Cabin John, Maryland.

Moody’s cut the U.S.’ sovereign credit rating in May, citing the increasing burden of the federal budget deficit and signaling a bigger credit risk for investors. Bond yields spiked on the news.

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A fixed 30-year mortgage would rise from almost 7% to roughly 7.6%, all else equal — likely putting homeownership further “out of reach,” especially for many potential first-time buyers, he said.

The debt-to-GDP ratio would swell from about 101% at the end of 2025 to an estimated 148% through 2034 under the as-written House legislation, said Kent Smetters, an economist and faculty director for the Penn Wharton Budget Model.

Bond investors get hit, too

‘Pouring gasoline on the fire’

“But it’s not going out on too much of a limb to suggest financial markets the last couple years have grown increasingly concerned about debt levels,” Quinlan said.

Absent action, the U.S. debt burden would still rise, economists said. The debt-to-GDP ratio would swell to 138% even if Republicans don’t pass any legislation, Smetters said.

But the House legislation would be “pouring gasoline on the fire,” said Chao.

“It’s adding to the problems we already have,” Chao said. “And this is why the bond market is not happy with it,” he added.

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