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Market volatility won’t impact Mediobanca deal: Monte dei Paschi CEO

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Pedestrians walk outside a Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA bank branch in Milan, Italy.

Alessia Pierdomenico | Getty Images

Siena, ITALY — Monte dei Paschi di Siena is holding firm on its plans to acquire Mediobanca for 13 billion euros ($14.3 billion) despite ongoing market turbulence, telling CNBC it will complete the deal in July.

The world’s oldest bank still in operation, surprised investors in January by making an all-share offer for Mediobanca, a prestigious institution focused on wealth management and investment banking. Mediobanca has rejected the proposal, denouncing it as a “destructive” move that is devoid of financial rationale.

Monte dei Paschi has faced several challenges over the years, most notably when it was bailed out by the Italian government in 2017 after it failed to raise much-needed cash from private investors. The Italian government has sold its majority stake in Monte dei Paschi and it currently represents less than 12% of ownership.

The bank’s CEO Luigi Lovaglio told CNBC on Monday that Monte dei Paschi “is back” and “in control of our destiny.”

When asked if the ongoing market turbulence could be a problem for its expansion plans, Lovaglio said: “The [market] situation will not impact our deal.”

“On the opposite, [the market situation] is confirming that size matters, [it] is confirming that you need to diversify on revenues,” he said, adding that if they were already a combined entity, they would “be stronger” and “have capability to react much quicker.”

The recent market volatility has led some companies to put some deals on hold. British private equity firm 3i Group Plc has reportedly postponed a sale of the maker of pet food MPM, while fintech company Klarna has put its IPO plans on hold.

Analysts have been divided over the benefits of the deal between Monte dei Paschi and Mediobanca. Deutsche Bank, for instance, said in mid-March the market was ignoring some potential opportunities for Monte dei Paschi, including a bigger distribution policy.

Other analysts warned about limited synergies in combining two different banks. Barclays, for example, said Monday that it was cutting its price target for Monte dei Paschi, taking a more skeptical view on the potential gains from a deal with Mediobanca. “Should Monte dei Paschi decide to spend more to convince majority of the Mediobanca institutional shareholders, the excess capital could reduce,” Barclays said.

Speaking to CNBC, Lovaglio was adamant the offer for Mediobanca presents a “fair price” and did not comment on whether the company would sweeten the deal to make it more appealing for Mediobanca shareholders.

“Hopefully within July, we can complete the deal,” he added.

Amid a pullback in global equity markets on Monday, Monte dei Paschi and Mediobanca shares both closed around 5% lower. Since Monte dei Paschi announced its intention to buy Mediobanca on January 24, the latter’s shares have lost about 14% of their value and the former about 8.5%.

Larger Ambitions

Monte dei Paschi’s offer for Mediobanca came at a time of wider consolidation efforts in Italian banking. UniCredit announced last year an offer to buy rival Banco BPM for about 10 billion euros.

Lovaglio said these bids represent the first wave of domestic consolidation for Italian banks.

“I believe this is the first phase [of consolidation] and, probably, we will have a second phase two years from now. That’s why, by combining Monte [dei] Paschi with Mediobanca, we will be in a position to be again a protagonist,” Lovaglio said.

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Swiss government proposes tough new capital rules in major blow to UBS

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A sign in German that reads “part of the UBS group” in Basel on May 5, 2025.

Fabrice Coffrini | AFP | Getty Images

The Swiss government on Friday proposed strict new capital rules that would require banking giant UBS to hold an additional $26 billion in core capital, following its 2023 takeover of stricken rival Credit Suisse.

The measures would also mean that UBS will need to fully capitalize its foreign units and carry out fewer share buybacks.

“The rise in the going-concern requirement needs to be met with up to USD 26 billion of CET1 capital, to allow the AT1 bond holdings to be reduced by around USD 8 billion,” the government said in a Friday statement, referring to UBS’ holding of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds.

The Swiss National Bank said it supported the measures from the government as they will “significantly strengthen” UBS’ resilience.

“As well as reducing the likelihood of a large systemically important bank such as UBS getting into financial distress, this measure also increases a bank’s room for manoeuvre to stabilise itself in a crisis through its own efforts. This makes it less likely that UBS has to be bailed out by the government in the event of a crisis,” SNB said in a Friday statement.

‘Too big to fail’

UBS has been battling the specter of tighter capital rules since acquiring the country’s second-largest bank at a cut-price following years of strategic errors, mismanagement and scandals at Credit Suisse.

The shock demise of the banking giant also brought Swiss financial regulator FINMA under fire for its perceived scarce supervision of the bank and the ultimate timing of its intervention.

Swiss regulators argue that UBS must have stronger capital requirements to safeguard the national economy and financial system, given the bank’s balance topped $1.7 trillion in 2023, roughly double the projected Swiss economic output of last year. UBS insists it is not “too big to fail” and that the additional capital requirements — set to drain its cash liquidity — will impact the bank’s competitiveness.

At the heart of the standoff are pressing concerns over UBS’ ability to buffer any prospective losses at its foreign units, where it has, until now, had the duty to back 60% of capital with capital at the parent bank.

Higher capital requirements can whittle down a bank’s balance sheet and credit supply by bolstering a lender’s funding costs and choking off their willingness to lend — as well as waning their appetite for risk. For shareholders, of note will be the potential impact on discretionary funds available for distribution, including dividends, share buybacks and bonus payments.

“While winding down Credit Suisse’s legacy businesses should free up capital and reduce costs for UBS, much of these gains could be absorbed by stricter regulatory demands,” Johann Scholtz, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, said in a note preceding the FINMA announcement. 

“Such measures may place UBS’s capital requirements well above those faced by rivals in the United States, putting pressure on returns and reducing prospects for narrowing its long-term valuation gap. Even its long-standing premium rating relative to the European banking sector has recently evaporated.”

The prospect of stringent Swiss capital rules and UBS’ extensive U.S. presence through its core global wealth management division comes as White House trade tariffs already weigh on the bank’s fortunes. In a dramatic twist, the bank lost its crown as continental Europe’s most valuable lender by market capitalization to Spanish giant Santander in mid-April.

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