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Market volatility won’t impact Mediobanca deal: Monte dei Paschi CEO

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Pedestrians walk outside a Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA bank branch in Milan, Italy.

Alessia Pierdomenico | Getty Images

Siena, ITALY — Monte dei Paschi di Siena is holding firm on its plans to acquire Mediobanca for 13 billion euros ($14.3 billion) despite ongoing market turbulence, telling CNBC it will complete the deal in July.

The world’s oldest bank still in operation, surprised investors in January by making an all-share offer for Mediobanca, a prestigious institution focused on wealth management and investment banking. Mediobanca has rejected the proposal, denouncing it as a “destructive” move that is devoid of financial rationale.

Monte dei Paschi has faced several challenges over the years, most notably when it was bailed out by the Italian government in 2017 after it failed to raise much-needed cash from private investors. The Italian government has sold its majority stake in Monte dei Paschi and it currently represents less than 12% of ownership.

The bank’s CEO Luigi Lovaglio told CNBC on Monday that Monte dei Paschi “is back” and “in control of our destiny.”

When asked if the ongoing market turbulence could be a problem for its expansion plans, Lovaglio said: “The [market] situation will not impact our deal.”

“On the opposite, [the market situation] is confirming that size matters, [it] is confirming that you need to diversify on revenues,” he said, adding that if they were already a combined entity, they would “be stronger” and “have capability to react much quicker.”

The recent market volatility has led some companies to put some deals on hold. British private equity firm 3i Group Plc has reportedly postponed a sale of the maker of pet food MPM, while fintech company Klarna has put its IPO plans on hold.

Analysts have been divided over the benefits of the deal between Monte dei Paschi and Mediobanca. Deutsche Bank, for instance, said in mid-March the market was ignoring some potential opportunities for Monte dei Paschi, including a bigger distribution policy.

Other analysts warned about limited synergies in combining two different banks. Barclays, for example, said Monday that it was cutting its price target for Monte dei Paschi, taking a more skeptical view on the potential gains from a deal with Mediobanca. “Should Monte dei Paschi decide to spend more to convince majority of the Mediobanca institutional shareholders, the excess capital could reduce,” Barclays said.

Speaking to CNBC, Lovaglio was adamant the offer for Mediobanca presents a “fair price” and did not comment on whether the company would sweeten the deal to make it more appealing for Mediobanca shareholders.

“Hopefully within July, we can complete the deal,” he added.

Amid a pullback in global equity markets on Monday, Monte dei Paschi and Mediobanca shares both closed around 5% lower. Since Monte dei Paschi announced its intention to buy Mediobanca on January 24, the latter’s shares have lost about 14% of their value and the former about 8.5%.

Larger Ambitions

Monte dei Paschi’s offer for Mediobanca came at a time of wider consolidation efforts in Italian banking. UniCredit announced last year an offer to buy rival Banco BPM for about 10 billion euros.

Lovaglio said these bids represent the first wave of domestic consolidation for Italian banks.

“I believe this is the first phase [of consolidation] and, probably, we will have a second phase two years from now. That’s why, by combining Monte [dei] Paschi with Mediobanca, we will be in a position to be again a protagonist,” Lovaglio said.

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Finance

Hertz surges after Bill Ackman takes big stake in the rental car firm

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Bill Ackman, Pershing Square Capital Management CEO, speaking at the Delivering Alpha conference in NYC on Sept. 28th, 2023.

Adam Jeffery | CNBC

Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square took a sizable stake in Hertz, the rental-car company that exited from bankruptcy four years ago, sparking a big rally.

Shares of Hertz surged 56% on Wednesday after a regulatory filing revealed Pershing Square had built a 4.1% position as of the end of 2024. Pershing has significantly increased the position — to 19.8% — through shares and swaps, becoming Hertz’ second largest shareholder, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC’s Scott Wapner.

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Hertz

The person said Ackman’s investment firm received an exemption from the SEC to delay the filing of the position until Wednesday, which allowed it to accumulate substantially more shares.

Hertz has been a troubled company for much of the past decade, including bankruptcy during the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.

Following its emergence from Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2021, the company bet heavy on all-electric vehicles, specifically Teslas, which cost the company billions following a significant decline in their residual values.

When reporting its 2024 fourth-quarter earnings in February, it revealed a $2.9 billion loss for the year, which included a $245 million loss on the sale of EVs during the fourth quarter.

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‘Fast Money’ trader Tim Seymour

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Fast Money” trader Tim Seymour wants to help investors avoid common money traps that could leave them exposed to losses, particularly in a volatile market.

So, he’s out with a shortlist of four tips to deliver some peace of mind when things are going south.

Tip No. 1: Don’t have more money in the market than you can stomach.

Whether it is margin calls or anxiety about losing money you can’t afford to lose, bad decisions are often made during desperation.

Tip No. 2: Don’t hope that you get back to breakeven.

If you’re only holding a long position because you don’t want to lose money on the trade, you risk losing more.

Bottom line: Own a stock based on merit, not hope.

Tip No. 3: Don’t assume yesterday’s investment rational will work tomorrow.

Ask yourself, “Has something changed in the fundamental case or is it a case of market volatility?” If something changed, make adjustments.

Tip No. 4: Don’t cut your flowers and keep your weeds.

Often, the highest quality companies will outperform in a down market. Bad position? Circle back to No. 2.

To get more personalized investment strategies, join us for our next “Fast Money” Live event on Thursday, June 5 at the Nasdaq in Times Square.

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Finance

Powell indicates tariffs could pose a two-pronged policy challenge for the Fed

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed concern in a speech Wednesday that the central bank could find itself in a dilemma between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth.

With uncertainty elevated over what impact President Donald Trump’s tariffs will have, the central bank leader said that while he expects higher inflation and lower growth, it’s unclear where the Fed will need to devote greater focus.

“We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension,” Powell said in prepared remarks before the Economic Club of Chicago. “If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close.”

The Fed is tasked with ensuring stable prices and full employment, and economists including those at the Fed see threats to both from the levies. Tariffs essentially act as a tax on imports, though their direct link to inflation historically has been spotty.

In a question-and-answer session after his speech, Powell said tariffs are “likely to move us further away from our goals … probably for the balance of this year.”

Powell gave no indication on where he sees interest rates headed, but noted that, “For the time being, we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”

Stocks hit session lows as Powell spoke while Treasury yields turned lower.

In the case of higher inflation, the Fed would keep interest rates steady or even increase them to dampen demand. In the case of slower growth, the Fed might be persuaded to lower interest rates. Powell emphasized the importance to keeping inflation expectations in check.

Markets expect the Fed to start reducing rates again in June and to enact three or four quarter-percentage-point cuts by the end of 2025, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

Fed officials generally consider tariffs to be a one-time hit to prices, but the expansive nature of the Trump duties could alter that trend.

Powell noted that survey- and market-based measures of near-term inflation are on the rise, though the longer-term outlook remains close to the Fed’s 2% goal. The Fed’s key inflation measure is expected to show a rate of 2.6% for March, he said.

“Tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation,” said Powell. “The inflationary effects could also be more persistent. Avoiding that outcome will depend on the size of the effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully to prices, and, ultimately, on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.”

The speech was largely similar to one he delivered earlier this month in Virginia, and in some passages verbatim.

Powell noted the threats to growth as well as inflation.

Gross domestic product for the first quarter, which will be reported later this month, is expected to show little growth in the U.S. economy for the January-through-March period.

Indeed, Powell noted “The data in hand so far suggest that growth has slowed in the first quarter from last year’s solid pace. Despite strong motor vehicle sales, overall consumer spending appears to have grown modestly. In addition, strong imports during the first quarter, reflecting attempts by businesses to get ahead of potential tariffs, are expected to weigh on GDP growth.”

Earlier in the day, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales increased a better-than-expected 1.4% in March. The report showed that a large portion of the growth came from car buyers looking to make purchases ahead of the tariffs, though multiple other sectors showed solid gains as well.

Following the report, the Atlanta Fed said it sees GDP growing at a -0.1% pace in Q1 when adjusting for an unusual rise in gold imports and exports. Powell described the economy as being in a “solid position” even with the expected slowdown in growth.

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