Finance

Markets are counting on the Fed to head off recession with sizeable interest rate cuts

Published

10 months ago

August 6, 2024

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell takes a question from a reporter during a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building on July 31, 2024 in Washington, DC.

Andrew Harnik | Getty Images

In the market’s eyes, the Federal Reserve finds itself either poised to head off a recession or doomed to repeat the mistakes of its recent past — when it was too late seeing a coming storm.

How Chair Jerome Powell and his cohorts at the central bank react likely will go a long way in determining how investors negotiate such a turbulent climate. Wall Street has been on a wild ride the past several days, with a relief rally Tuesday ameliorating some of the damage since recession fears intensified last week.

“In sum, no recession today, but one is increasingly inevitable by year-end if the Fed fails to act,” Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said in a note to clients. “But they will, beginning with a [half percentage point] cut in September telegraphed in late August.”

Blitz’s comments represent the widespread sentiment on Wall Street — little feeling that a recession is an inevitability unless, of course, the Fed fails to act. Then the probability ramps up.

Disappointing economic data recently generated worries that the Fed missed an opportunity at its meeting last week to, if not cut rates outright, send a clearer signal that easing is on the way. It helped conjure up memories of the not-too-distant past when Fed officials dismissed the 2021 inflation surge as “transitory” and were pressed into what ultimately was a series of harsh rate hikes.

Now, with a weak jobs report from July in hand and worries intensifying over a downturn, the investing community wants the Fed to take strong action before it misses the chance.

Traders are pricing in a strong likelihood of that half-point September cut, followed by aggressive easing that could lop 2.25 percentage points off the Fed’s short-term borrowing rate by the end of next year, as judged by 30-day fed funds futures contracts. The Fed currently targets its key rate between 5.25%-5.5%.

“The unfortunate reality is that a range of data confirm what the rise in the unemployment rate is now prominently signaling — the US economy is at best at risk of falling into a recession and at worst already has,” Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote. “Data over the next month is likely to confirm the continued slowdown, keeping a [half-point] cut in September likely and a potential intermeeting cut on the table.”

Emergency cut unlikely

With the economy still creating jobs and stock market averages near record highs, despite the recent sell-off, an emergency cut between now and the Sept. 17-18 open market committee seems a longshot to say the least.

The fact that it’s even being talked about, though, indicates the depth of recession fears. In the past, the Fed has implemented just nine such cuts, and all have come amid extreme duress, according to Bank of America.

“If the question is, ‘should the Fed consider an intermeeting cut now?’, we think history says, ‘no, not even close,'” said BofA economist Michael Gapen.

Lacking a catalyst for an intermeeting cut, the Fed is nonetheless expected to cut rates almost as swiftly as it hiked from March 2022-July 2023. It could start the process later this month, when Powell delivers his expected keynote policy speech during the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Powell is already being expected to signal how the easing path will unfold.

Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, expects the Fed to cut rates 3 full percentage points by the end of 2025, more aggressive than the current market outlook.

“Go big or go home. The Fed has clearly said that rates are too high. Why would they be slow at removing the tightness?” he said. “They’ll be quick in cutting if for no other reason than rates aren’t at the right level. Why wait?”

LaVorgna, though, isn’t convinced the Fed is in a life-or-death battle against recession. However, he noted that “normalizing” the inverted yield curve, or getting longer-dated securities back to yielding more than their shorter-dated counterparts, will be an integral factor in avoiding an economic contraction.

Over the weekend, Goldman Sachs drew some attention to when it raised its recession forecast, but only to 25% from 15%. That said, the bank did note that one reason it does not believe a recession is imminent is that the Fed has plenty of room to cut — 5.25 percentage points if necessary, not to mention the capacity to restart its bond-buying program known as quantitative easing.

Still, any quakes in the data, such as Friday’s downside surprise to the nonfarm payrolls numbers, could ignite recession talk quickly.

“The Fed is as behind the economic curve now as it was behind the inflation curve back in 2021-2022,” economist and strategist David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, wrote Tuesday. He added that the heightened expectation for cuts “smacks of a true recession scenario because the Fed has rarely done this absent an official economic downturn — heading into one, already in one, or limping out of one.”

Finance

Warner Bros. Discovery, Tesla, Robinhood, IonQ and more

Published

1 hour ago

June 9, 2025

Business Finance News

Finance

Robinhood shares drop after the online brokerage fails to get the nod to join the S&P 500

Published

2 hours ago

June 9, 2025

Business Finance News

People wait in line for T-shirts at a pop-up kiosk for the online brokerage Robinhood along Wall Street after the company went public with an initial public offering earlier in the day on July 29, 2021 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Robinhood shares sold off on Monday as the online brokerage was snubbed in the latest quarterly rebalance of the S&P 500 Index after months of speculation that it could earn a coveted spot in the benchmark.

Shares of Robinhood dropped nearly 5% in premarket trading. The stock has rallied 3.3% Friday to bring last week’s gain to over 13% before the S&P Dow Jones Indices said after the bell that the S&P 500 would remain unchanged.

Just last week, Bank of America called Robinhood a top candidate to join the S&P 500 during the big reshuffling in June. The S&P 500 rebalance, which typically comes on the third Friday of the last month in a quarter, is usually an impactful event as it can spark billions of dollars of trading and spur passive funds to snap up its shares. Companies being added to the index can generally expect funds like that to buy huge amounts of their shares in the coming weeks.

Crypto exchange Coinbase was the latest beneficiary of such an inclusion. The stock skyrocketed 24% in the next trading session following the announcement last month.

Still, Robinhood has had a major comeback this year so far with shares doubling in price. The online brokerage’s shares hit a fresh record high last week amid a rebound in both stocks and crypto. The company had fallen out of favor after the GameStop trading mania of 2021 fizzled and the collapse of FTX triggered a sell-off in digital assets.

Finance

UK’s FCA teams up with Nvidia to let banks experiment with AI

Published

7 hours ago

June 9, 2025

Business Finance News

Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images

LONDON — Britain’s financial services watchdog on Monday announced a new tie-up with U.S. chipmaker Nvidia to let banks safely experiment with artificial intelligence.

The Financial Conduct Authority said it will launch a so-called Supercharged Sandbox that will “give firms access to better data, technical expertise and regulatory support to speed up innovation.”

Starting from October, financial services institutions in the U.K. will be allowed to experiment with AI using Nvidia’s accelerated computing and AI Enterprise Software products, the watchdog said in a press release.

The initiative is designed for firms in the “discovery and experiment phase” with AI, the FCA noted, adding that a separate live testing service exists for firms further along in AI development.

“This collaboration will help those that want to test AI ideas but who lack the capabilities to do so,” Jessica Rusu, the FCA’s chief data, intelligence and information officer, said in a statement. “We’ll help firms harness AI to benefit our markets and consumers, while supporting economic growth.”

The FCA’s new sandbox addresses a key issue for banks, which have faced challenges shipping advanced new AI tools to their customers amid concerns over risks around privacy and fraud.

Large language models from the likes of OpenAI and Google send data back to overseas facilities — and privacy regulators have raised the alarm over how this information is stored and processed. There have meanwhile been several instances of malicious actors using generative AI to scam people.

Nvidia is behind the graphics processing units, or GPUs, used to train and run powerful AI models. The company’s CEO, Jensen Huang, is expected to give a keynote talk at a tech conference in London on Monday morning.

Last year, HSBC’s generative AI lead, Edward Achtner, told a London tech conference he sees “a lot of success theater” in finance when it comes to artificial intelligence — hinting that some financial services firms are touting advances in AI without tangible product innovations to show for it.

He added that, while banks like HSBC have used AI for many years, new generative AI tools like OpenAI’s ChatGPT come with their own unique compliance risks.