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No sign of U.S. recession in freight demand, Maersk CEO says

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Maersk CEO: We expect Red Sea disruption until at least the end of the year

Shipping giant Maersk, considered a barometer for global trade, is not seeing signs of a U.S. recession as freight demand remains robust, the company’s chief executive said Wednesday.

“We’ve seen in the last couple of years, actually, [the shipping container] market remaining surprisingly resilient to all the fear of recessions that there has been,” Vincent Clerc told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” Wednesday, adding that container demand was generally a good indicator of underlying macroeconomic strength.

U.S. inventories — goods being stored before delivery or processing — “are higher than they were at the beginning of the year, but they are not at a level that is worrisome or that seems to indicate a significant slowdown right in the offing,” Clerc said, despite noting some unpredictability in numbers for companies replenishing stocks.

“We look also at purchase orders from a lot of retailers and consumer brands that need to import into the U.S. for the coming month of demand, and it seems still to be pretty robust … at least the data and the indicators that we’re having seem to point toward still some good level of confidence that the current consumption levels in the U.S. will continue.”

The last week has seen a sudden escalation in worries about a recession in the world’s biggest economy, the U.S., following a set of weaker-than-expected jobs data which has divided economists and market participants.

U.S. retail trade inventories — a measure of unwanted build — in May were up 5.33% from a year ago at $793.86 billion, according to the most recent release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

A report released by leasing platform Container xChange on Wednesday said indicators suggest inventories are higher than demand, meaning a less “prosperous time” in the coming months for container traders, the logistics market and retailers who stockpiled.

Maersk’s Clerc said the company had been surprised by the resilience of container volumes across the last few years, and said it expected that to continue in the coming quarters — with no indication the global economy is heading toward recessionary territory.

Chinese exports have been the engine behind strong container volumes as the global share of containers originating in or heading for China has increased, he continued.

In 2022, the Danish firm had a markedly more gloomy outlook, warning of a drag on demand from inflation, the threat of a global recession, the European energy crisis and the war in Ukraine.

A combination of those factors drove down freight rates in 2023, sending Maersk’s profits tumbling.

That trend was partially reversed this year amid soaring geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea, which led shipping firms to divert trade routes around the southern coast of Africa — extending journey times and taking capacity out of the global system.

How Red Sea attacks impact global supply chain

Red Sea to cause further inflation

Clerc told CNBC Wednesday he expected Red Sea diversions to continue at least until the end of the year.

“That, of course, requires more capacity, more ships in order to move global trade around the world, and that has created some shortages here in the second quarter and in the third quarter that we’re dealing with at the moment,” he said.

“That means, in the short term, higher cost, and we have had to take on significant cost as a result of this, both in terms of having needing more ships and needing also more containers to do the job that is expected of us.”

If the situation persists, Maersk will see “significant inflation” in its cost base which it will need to pass on to customers, he continued, with Asia to Europe or U.S. east coast routes costing between 20% and 30% more.

The impact of capacity constraints in the short term has been positive for the Danish shipping giant’s margins and led to three profit upgrades in recent months, Clerc added.

Maersk on Wednesday reported a decline in year-on-year underlying profit to $623 million from $1.346 billion in the second quarter, and a dip in revenue to $12.77 billion from $12.99 billion.

While weaker on an annual basis, the company said ocean freight margins were “significantly better” than in the first quarter of 2024 and fourth quarter of 2023, with an earnings before interest and taxes margin of 5.6% versus -2% and -12.8% in those prior periods.

Maersk shares were 1.6% lower at 12:45 p.m. in London on Wednesday.

Economics

Republicans have a plan to add trillions of dollars to the national debt

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MUCH AS he may wish to, Donald Trump cannot govern through imperial decree alone. Congress is drafting legislation to remake the tax system and alter federal spending—something only it can do. On May 12th Republicans unveiled their new plan. Unfortunately it is a mess.

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CPI inflation April 2025: Rate hits 2.3%

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Customers line up at the check out booth on April 18, 2025 at a Costco branch in Niantic, Connecticut.

Robert Nickelsberg | Getty Images

Inflation was slightly lower than expected in April as President Donald Trump’s tariffs just began hitting the slowing U.S. economy, according to a Labor Department report Tuesday.

The consumer price index, which measures the costs for a broad range of goods and services, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.3%, its lowest since February 2021, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate while the 12-month was a bit below the forecast for 2.4%.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI also increased 0.2% for the month, while the year-over-year level was 2.8%. The forecast was for 0.3% and 2.8% respectively.

The monthly readings were a bit higher than in March though price increases remain well off their highs of three years ago.

Shelter prices again were the main culprit in pushing up the inflation gauge. The category, which makes about one-third of the index weighting, increased 0.3% in April, accounting for more than half the overall move, according to the BLS.

After posting a 2.4% slide in March, energy prices rebounded, with a 0.7% gain. Food saw a 0.1% decline.

Used vehicle prices saw their second straight drop, down 0.5%, while new vehicles were flat. Apparel costs also were off 0.2% though medical care services increased 0.5%.

Egg prices tumbled, falling 12.7%, though they were still up 49.3% from a year ago.

While the April CPI figures were relatively tame, the Trump tariffs remain a wild card in the inflation picture, depending on where negotiations go between now and the summer.

In his much-awaited “Liberation Day” announcement, Trump slapped 10% duties on all U.S. imports and said he intended to put additional reciprocal tariffs on trading partners. Recently, though, Trump has backed off his position, with the most dramatic development a 90-day stay on aggressive tariffs against China while the two sides enter further negotiations.

Markets expect the president’s softening position to lead to less of a chance of interest rate cuts this year. Traders had been expecting the Federal Reserve to start easing in June, with at least three total reductions likely this year.

Since the China developments, the market has pushed out the first cut to September, with just two likely this year as the central bank feels less pressure to support the economy and as inflation has held above the Fed’s 2% target now for more than four years.

The Fed relies more on the Commerce Department’s inflation gauge for policymaking, though CPI figures into that index. The BLS on Thursday will release its April reading on producer prices, which are seen as more of a leading indicator on inflation.

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

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German business leaders tell new government: It’s time to deliver

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TEGERNSEE, GERMANY — Top German business leaders, economists and politicians descended onto a small, picturesque Bavarian town situated next to the iconic Tegernsee lake last week to share their hopes and discuss what’s at stake for the new government.

Buoyed by recent positive market sentiment for Europe’s largest economy, attendees at the summit were united in their call for the new administration to step up and honour campaign promises. Any missteps would likely not be tolerated, with some business leaders warning the government cannot allow itself a “lazy summer.”

Despite rain and low hanging clouds providing a somewhat dreary backdrop to the event, which has been dubbed the “Davos of Germany,” the promise of new beginnings enveloped the summit and the atmosphere was buzzing with excitement for potential changes the newly-appointed Chancellor Friedrich Merz could initiate.

The view across the Tegernsee from the Ludwig Erhard Summit

Sophie Kiderlin, CNBC

Big expectations for the government were commonplace, with concerns about Germany’s struggling economy and recent political turmoil seemingly having faded into the background.

The German DAX index is currently up over 18% since the beginning of this year, frequently hitting record highs in recent months. The German economy has however been in stagnation territory for over two years now, with tensions over economic, fiscal and budget policy in the previous ruling coalition and its eventual breakup continuing to weigh on expectations.

“There are very high hopes now on the new government,” Patrick Trutwein, chief risk officer and chief operating officer at the IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG, said during a panel moderated by CNBC’s Annette Weisbach.

He said he was feeling positive about Germany’s future considering the announcement of the major fiscal package enshrined in Germany’s constitution, as well as further potential reforms ahead and “an economy that’s pretty robust and can build on its own … productivity and competencies.”

Matthias Voelkel, CEO of Boerse Stuttgart Group, was among those feeling hopeful.

“If we look ahead and if they [the new government] do the right thing, I’m optimistic,” he told CNBC.

Audi CEO Gernot Döllner meanwhile said in a fireside chat that he was hopeful that the new government would “send an impulse into the German economy.”

The mood was also upbeat in Germany’s auto sector, which has long been struggling with competition from China, pressures from the transition to electric vehicles and has recently been hit by U.S. tariffs.

“The Germans are back,” Hildegard Müller, president of the German Association of the Automotive Industry, told CNBC’s Weisbach Friday. “We are competitive,” she added.

A talk at the Ludwig Erhard Summit.

Sophie Kiderlin, CNBC

But amid the positive buzz, it was clear that observers are keeping a close eye on the governments every move.

“This new government in Germany cannot allow itself a political lazy summer, I’m sorry, they’ve got to work and they’ve got to work hard,” said Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, chairman of Spitzberg Partners and former German politician.

Or as Veronika Grimm, member of the German Council of Economic Experts, told CNBC: “A lot lies ahead for the government.”

09 May 2025, Bavaria, Gmund Am Tegernsee: Katherina Reiche (CDU), Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, takes part in the Ludwig Erhard Summit. Representatives from business, politics, science and the media are taking part in the three-day summit. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa (Photo by Sven Hoppe/picture alliance via Getty Images)

Germany’s new economy boss has a plan — and it starts with risk, speed and big bets

Overal the message was clear: Germany needs to get its act together.

Alexander Horn, general manager of Eli Lilly‘s Germany arm — Lilly Germany — said the business strongly welcomes the new government’s goals, but won’t tolerate any caveats.

“Specifically we expect that the declarations of intent that are in the coalition agreement will be implemented quickly, speed plays an enormously big role,” he said during a panel, according to a CNBC translation.

Boerse Stuttgart Group’s Voelkel indicated his optimism relied on action from the government, saying he was looking for moves towards “less bureaucracy, less anti-growth regulation, more innovation and particularly strengthening investment.”

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The newly minted German government has set itself many of these points as policy goals, making promises to boost the country’s economy, reduce bureaucracy and boost innovation and investment during the election campaign and in its coalition agreement.

“This country needs an economic turnaround. After two years of recessions the previous government had to announce again [a] zero growth year for 2025 and we really have to work on this,” German economy minister Katherina Reiche told CNBC on the sidelines of the summit.

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