PDD ‘s tumble of nearly 30% last week on disappointing quarterly results is a reminder that China’s consumer has largely moved on from its years of double-digit growth. The slowdown shows few signs of turning around soon. That doesn’t mean it’s a sell across the board. PDD’s revenue grew by nearly 90% from a year ago, while profit more than doubled, pointed out Charlie Chen, managing director, head of Asia research, at China Renaissance Securities. “The reaction of its stock price is out of touch with its fundamentals,” he said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. “The entire Chinese consumer market is weak, yes, [but] PDD management’s very peculiar comments caused the share price decline,” he said. Chen Lei, chairman and co-CEO of PDD, warned multiple times on the earnings call about future declines in profit. But analysts point out that despite price target cuts, the stock remains attractively valued . Other earnings have painted a less-dire picture. Chinese food delivery company Meituan on Wednesday reported second-quarter revenue and earnings that significantly beat FactSet expectations. Revenue grew by 21%, while adjusted earnings nearly doubled from a year ago. Morgan Stanley upgraded the Hong Kong-listed stock to overweight from equal-weight, while JPMorgan raised its price target to 140 Hong Kong dollars ($17.95) with an overweight rating, according to FactSet. That’s 18% upside from where Meituan shares closed Friday, up by nearly 10% for the week. The delivery company, which also owns China’s version of Yelp, said its in-store, hotel and travel business maintained “strong growth.” Management did not comment much on consumer sentiment, beyond a clear preference on value-for-money. “Under the current macro environment, demand for low-star hotels has increased,” CEO Wang Xing said on an earnings call, according to a FactSet transcript. Chinese booking site Trip.com , listed in the U.S. and Hong Kong, on Aug. 26 reported a mild beat on the top and bottom line, according to FactSet. Trip.com said reservations for travel out of China recovered to 100% of the pre-Covid level in the second quarter of 2019. That’s despite international flight capacity that’s only 75% of pre-pandemic levels, the company said. Trip.com’s Hong Kong-traded shares rose by nearly 12% last week. “I think people also now are switching a little bit more into experience consumption than goods consumption, because goods, you can only have that much,” said Liqian Ren, leader of quantitative investment at WisdomTree. She pointed out that there’s more pent-up demand for travel, and expects it to persist for another year or so, since people could buy goods via e-commerce platforms during the pandemic. However, Ren pointed out the real estate slump and general uncertainty about income is constraining consumer spending. Retail sales grew by 2.7% in July from a year ago, after a 2% increase in June. Ren said an effective way for China to support the economy could be to take proactive, rather than reactive, measures: removing all restrictions on house purchases and allowing all people living in cities access to the same benefits. People who just move to a city to work can’t necessarily enroll their children in the local schools without obtaining what’s called a “hukou.” Many cities, including Beijing, still restrict the number of properties people can buy. “As long as the Chinese government realizes it has a number of tools to get ahead of the market, then it will stop this slow grinding of people not wanting to spend,” Ren said. Other companies, such as Yum China , are using new business strategies to grow profit despite slower consumer spending. In early August, the operator of KFC and Pizza Hut in China reported second-quarter earnings grew 19% to 55 cents a share, beating the FactSet estimate of 47 cents. About 80% of those Pizza Hut stores have automatic fried machines, and 50% have robotic servers, according to CEO Joey Wat, noting overall automation of tasks from labor scheduling to inventory management. U.S.-traded shares of Yum China were up more than 1% last week. In the meantime, the tepid environment has generally supported a more conservative tilt by investors. Banks are one of the few sectors in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index that is up double-digits so far this year, according to Wind Information. Hong Kong-listed Postal Savings Bank of China is Morgan Stanley’s new top pick in the sector, analyst Richard Xu and a team said in a mid-August report. “We think the shifting monetary policy framework, moderating loan growth window guidance, and PBOC support for long-term bond yields will create a favorable environment for bank [net interest margin] to stabilize and rebound,” the report said. “Among all the banks, we think PSBC is one of the best positioned to leverage this trend.” Morgan Stanley is expects Chinese bank stocks could see their fourth-straight year of outperformance this year. “We think the inventory on the property market will go down to a more reasonable level by mid-2025. That means, the drag will be a lot less on a low economy from the property market correction or slowdown,” Xu said in an interview. He is also watching whether pressure to expand industrial capacity eases, helping business profit margins. “If those factors started to moderate over time, then some other sectors could perform better than the banks.”
Jonathan Gray, president and chief operating officer of Blackstone Inc., from left, Ron O’Hanley, chief executive officer of State Street Corp., Ted Pick, chief executive officer of Morgan Stanley, Marc Rowan, chief executive officer of Apollo Global Management LLC, and David Solomon, chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., during the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong, China, on Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
An “industrial renaissance” in the U.S. is fueling demand for capital, Marc Rowan, CEO of Apollo Global Management said at the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong.
“There is so much demand for capital, [including through debt and equity] … What’s going on is nothing short of extraordinary,” Rowan said on Tuesday during a panel discussion.
This demand has been supported by massive government spending, particularly on infrastructure, the semiconductor industry and projects under the Inflation Reduction Act, said the asset manager, who is reportedly in the running for Treasury Secretary position under President-elect Donald Trump.
“What we’re watching is this incredible demand for capital happening against a backdrop of a U.S. government that is running significant deficits. And so the capital raising business, I think that’s going to be a good business,” he said.
Rowan added that the U.S. has been the largest recipient of foreign direct investment over the past three years and is expected to stay at the top spot this year as well.
Rowan and other panelists also identified energy and data centers — needed for artificial intelligence and digitization — as growth sectors requiring more capital.
Blackstone President and COO Jonathan Gray told the panel that data centers were the biggest theme across his entire firm, with the company employing billions on their development.
“We’re doing it in equity, we’re doing it financing … this is a space we like a lot, and we will continue to be all in as it relates to digital infrastructure.”
Fundraising and M&A recovery
Other panelists at the summit organized by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said that capital raising was well-positioned to recover from a recent slowdown.
According to David Solomon, Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs, capital raising activity had reached peak levels in 2020 and 2021 amid massive Covid-era stimulus but later became muted amid the war in Ukraine, inflation pressures and tighter regulation from the Federal Trade Commission.
There has been a recent pick up in activity as conditions have normalized, along with expectations of friendlier regulation on dealmaking from the FTC under the incoming Donald Trump administration, Solomon said.
While there remains an inflationary backdrop and other risks in the current environment, Ted Pick, CEO of Morgan Stanley said that the consumer and corporate community are “by in large, in good shape” as the economy continues to grow.
“This environment has been one where, if you are in the business of allocating capital, it’s been great,” he said, adding that the group was now gearing up to get into “raising capital mode.”
“That is [the] hallmark of a growing and thriving economy, which is where the classic underwriting and mergers and acquisitions businesses take hold,” he said.
Solomon predicted that these trends would see “more robust” capital raising and M&A activity in 2025.
The Senate Judiciary Committee convened on Tuesday for a hearing on the alleged Visa–Mastercard “duopoly,” which committee members from both sides of the aisle say has left retailers and other small businesses with no ability to negotiate interchange fees on credit card transactions.
“This is an odd grouping. The most conservative and the most liberal members happen to agree that we have to do something about this situation,” committee chair and Democratic Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin said.
Interchange fees, also known as swipe fees, are paid from a merchant’s bank account to the cardholder’s bank, whenever a customer uses a credit card in a retail purchase. Visa and Mastercard have a combined market cap of more than $1 trillion, and control 80% of the market.
“In 2023 alone, Visa and Mastercard charged merchants more than $100 billion in credit card fees, mostly in the form of interchange fees,” Durbin told the committee.
Durbin, along with Republican Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall, have co-sponsored the bipartisan Credit Card Competition Act, which takes aim at Visa and Mastercard’s market dominance by requiring banks with more than $100 billion in assets to offer at least one other payment network on their cards, besides Visa and Mastercard.
“This way, small businesses would finally have a real choice: they can route credit card transactions on the Visa or Mastercard network and continue to pay interchange fees that often rank as their second or biggest expense, or they could select a lower cost alternative,” Durbin told the committee.
Visa and Mastercard, however, stand by their swipe fees.
“We consider them incentives, some people might consider them penalties. But if you can adopt new technology that reduces the risk and takes fraud out of the system and improves streamlined processing, then you would qualify for lower interchange rates,” said Bill Sheedy, senior advisor to Visa CEO Ryan McInerney. “It’s very expensive to issue a product and to provide payment guarantee and online customer service, zero liability. All of those things, and many more, senator, get factored into interchange [fees].”
The executives also warned against the Credit Card Competition Act, with Sheedy claiming that it “would remove consumer control over their own payment decisions, reduce competition, impose technology sharing mandates and pick winners and losers by favoring certain competitors over others.”
“Why do we know this? Because we’ve seen it before,” Mastercard President of Americas Linda Kirkpatrick said, in reference to the Durbin amendment to the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, which required the Fed to limit fees on retailers for transactions using debit cards. “Since debit regulation took hold, debit rewards were eliminated, fees went up, access to capital diminished, and competition was stifled.”
But the current high credit card swipe fees for retailers translate to higher prices for consumers, the National Retail Federation told the committee in a letter ahead of the hearing. The Credit Card Competition Act, the retail industry’s largest trade association wrote, will deliver “fairness and transparency to the payment system and relief to American business and consumers.”
“When we think of consumer spending, credit card swipe fees are not the first thing that comes to mind, yet those fees are a surprisingly large part of consumer spending,” Notre Dame University law professor Roger Alford said. “Last year, the average American spent $1,100 in swipe fees, more than they spent on pets, coffee or alcohol.”
Visa and Mastercard agreed to a $30 billion settlement in March meant to reduce their swipe fees by four basis points for three years, but a federal judge rejected the settlement in June, saying they could afford to pay more.
Visa is also battling a Justice Department lawsuit filed in September. The payment network is accused of maintaining an illegal monopoly over debit card payment networks, which has affected “the price of nearly everything,” according to Attorney General Merrick Garland.
Check out the companies making headlines in extended trading. Keysight Technologies — Shares added more than 8%. The electronics test and measurement equipment company’s fiscal fourth-quarter results beat analyst estimates on the top and bottom lines. Keysight also issued a rosy outlook for the current quarter, anticipating adjusted earnings ranging from $1.65 to $1.71 per share, while analysts polled by FactSet called for $1.57 a share. Dolby Laboratories —The audio technology company advanced 10% after its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of 61 cents per share topped Street estimates of 45 cents per share, per FactSet. Dolby also increased its dividend by 10% to 33 cents a share. Powell Industries — The manufacturer of electrical equipment slipped almost 14%. Net new orders for fiscal 2024 came in at $1.1 billion, compared to $1.4 billion in the year-ago period. The company noted that the decline was largely due to the inclusion of three large megaprojects in Powell’s oil and gas and petrochemical sectors in fiscal 2023. Azek Company — Shares of the residential siding and trim company ticked up 2% after its fiscal fourth-quarter results beat analyst estimates. Azek reported earnings of 29 cents per share on revenue of $348.2 million. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were looking for earnings of 27 cents per share and $339.1 million in revenue. La-Z-Boy — The furniture company gained nearly 3% following fiscal second-quarter results. La-Z-Boy reported earnings of 71 cents per share on revenue of $521 million. That’s an improvement from the year-ago period, in which the company posted earnings of 63 cents per share and revenue of $511.4 million. La-Z-Boy also upped its quarterly dividend by 10% to 22 cents per share.