Connect with us

Economics

Private payroll growth slowed to 122,000 in July, less than expected, ADP says

Published

on

Private job growth slowed further in July while the pace of wage gains hit a three-year low, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday.

Companies added just 122,000 jobs on the month, the slowest pace since January and below the upwardly revised 155,000 in June. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a gain of 150,000.

ADP also reported that wages for those who stayed in their jobs increased 4.8% from a year ago, the smallest rise since July 2021 and down 0.1 percentage point from June.

“With wage growth abating, the labor market is playing along with the Federal Reserve’s effort to slow inflation,” said ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson. “If inflation goes back up, it won’t be because of labor.”

Futures tied to major stock indexes added to gains following the report while Treasury yields fell.

There was more positive inflation news Wednesday, as the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the employment cost index, an indicator Fed officials watch closely, increased just 0.9% in the second quarter, according to seasonally adjusted figures.

That was below the 1.2% acceleration in the first quarter and the Dow Jones estimate for a 1% increase.

Both reports could add to the likelihood that the Fed will signal a September rate cut when it concludes its two-day meeting later in the day.

Job growth was heavily concentrated in two sectors — trade, transportation and utilities, which added 61,000 workers, and construction, which contributed 39,000. Other sectors seeing gains included leisure and hospitality (24,000), education and health services (22,000), and other services (19,000).

Several sectors reported net losses on the month. They included professional and business services (-37,000), information (-18,000), and manufacturing (-4,000). Companies that employ fewer than 50 people also registered a loss, down 7,000 in July.

Geographically, the job gains were concentrated in the South, which saw a gain of 55,000, while the Midwest added just 17,000.

The ADP report comes two days before the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its nonfarm payrolls count, which, unlike the ADP tally, includes government jobs. The two reports can differ substantially, with ADP overshooting the BLS estimate of 136,000 for private payrolls in June.

Economists expect job growth of 185,000 in July, down from 206,000 in June, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%.

Correction: This story has been updated to correct the name of the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Economics

UK inflation September 2024

Published

on

The Canary Wharf business district is seen in the distance behind autumnal leaves on October 09, 2024 in London, United Kingdom.

Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — Inflation in the U.K. dropped sharply to 1.7% in September, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the headline rate to come in at a higher 1.9% for the month, in the first dip of the print below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021.

Inflation has been hovering around that level for the last four months, and came in at 2.2% in August.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 3.2% for the month, down from 3.6% in August and below the 3.4% forecast of a Reuters poll.

Price rises in the services sector, the dominant portion of the U.K. economy, eased significantly to 4.9% last month from 5.6% in August, now hitting its lowest rate since May 2022.

Core and services inflation are key watch points for Bank of England policymakers as they mull whether to cut interest rates again at their November meeting.

As of Wednesday morning, market pricing put an 80% probability on a November rate cut ahead of the latest inflation print. Analysts on Tuesday said lower wage growth reported by the ONS this week had supported the case for a cut. The BOE reduced its key rate by 25 basis points in August before holding in September.

Within the broader European region, inflation in the euro zone dipped below the European Central Bank’s 2% target last month, hitting 1.8%, according to the latest data.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly.

Continue Reading

Economics

Why Larry Hogan’s long-odds bid for a Senate seat matters

Published

on

FEW REPUBLICAN politicians differ more from Donald Trump than Larry Hogan, the GOP Senate candidate in Maryland. Consider the contrasts between a Trump rally and a Hogan event. Whereas Mr Trump prefers to take the stage and riff in front of packed arenas, Mr Hogan spent a recent Friday night chatting with locals at a waterfront wedding venue in Baltimore County. Mr Hogan’s stump speech, at around ten minutes, felt as long as a single off-script Trump tangent. Mr Trump delights in defying his advisers; Mr Hogan fastidiously sticks to talking points about bipartisanship, good governance and overcoming tough odds. Put another way, Mr Hogan’s campaign is something Mr Trump is rarely accused of being: boring. But it is intriguing.

Continue Reading

Economics

Polarisation by education is remaking American politics

Published

on

DEPENDING ON where exactly you find yourself, western Pennsylvania can feel Appalachian, Midwestern, booming or downtrodden. No matter where, however, this part of the state feels like the centre of the American political universe. Since she became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris has visited Western Pennsylvania six times—more often than Philadelphia, on the other side of the state. She will mark her seventh on a trip on October 14th, to the small city of Erie, where Donald Trump also held a rally recently. Democratic grandees flit through Pittsburgh regularly. It is where Ms Harris chose to unveil the details of her economic agenda, and it is where Barack Obama visited on October 10th to deliver encouragement and mild chastisement. “Do not just sit back and hope for the best,” he admonished. “Get off your couch and vote.”

Continue Reading

Trending