Finance

Ray Dalio says the Fed faces a tough balancing act

Published

3 months ago

September 19, 2024

Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates co-chairman and co-chief investment officer, speaks during the Skybridge Capital SALT New York 2021 conference.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

As the U.S. Federal Reserve implemented its first interest rate cut since the early Covid pandemic, billionaire investor Ray Dalio flagged that the U.S. economy still faces an “enormous amount of debt.”

The central bank’s decision reduces the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%. The rate not only determines short-term borrowing costs for banks, but also impacts various consumer products like mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.

“The challenge of the Federal Reserve is to keep interest rates high enough that they’re good for the creditor, while keeping them not so high that they’re problematic for the debtor,” the founder of Bridgewater Associates told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday, noting the difficulty of this “balancing act.”

The U.S. Treasury Department recently reported that the government has spent more than $1 trillion this year on interest payments for its $35.3 trillion national debt. This increase in debt service costs also coincided with a significant rise in the U.S. budget deficit in August, which is approaching $2 trillion for the year.

On Wednesday, Dalio listed debt, money and the economic cycle as one of the top five forces influencing the global economy. Expanding on his point Thursday, he said he was generally interested in “the enormous amount of debt that is being created by governments and monetized by central banks. Those magnitudes have never existed in my lifetime.”

Governments around the world took on record debt burdens during the pandemic to finance stimulus packages and other economic measures to prevent a collapse.

When asked about his outlook and whether he sees a looming credit event, Dalio responded he did not.

“I see a big depreciation in the value of that debt through a combination of artificial low real rates, so you won’t be compensated,” he said.

While the economy “is in relative equilibrium,” Dalio noted there’s an “enormous” amount of debt that needs to be rolled over and also sold, new debt created by the government.”

Ray Dalio says the U.S. needs a strong leader of the middle and 'broad-based prosperity'

Dalio’s concern is that neither former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will prioritize debt sustainability, meaning these pressures are unlikely to alleviate regardless of who wins the upcoming presidential election.

“I think as time goes on, the path will be increasingly toward monetizing that debt, following a path very similar to Japan,” Dalio posited, pointing to how the Asian nation has kept interest rates artificially low, which had depreciated the Japanese yen and lowered the value of Japanese bonds.

“The value of a Japanese bond has gone down by 90% so that there’s a tremendous tax through artificially giving you a lower yield each year,” he said.

For years, Japan’s central bank stuck to its negative rates regime as it embarked on one of the most aggressive monetary easing exercises in the world. The country’s central bank only recently lifted interest rates in March this year.

Additionally, when markets do not have enough buyers to take on the supply of debt, there could be a situation where interest rates have to go up or the Fed may have to step in and buy, which Dalio reckons they would.

“I would view [the] intervention of the Fed as a very significant bad event,” the billionaire said. Debt oversupply also raises questions of how it gets paid.

“If we were in hard money terms, then you would have a credit event. But in fiat monetary terms, you have the purchases of that debt by the central banks, monetizing the debt,” he said.

In that scenario, Dalio expects that the markets would also see all currencies go down as they’re all relative.

“So I think you’d see an environment very similar to the 1970’s environment, or the 1930 to ’45 type of period,” he said.

For his own portfolio, Dalio asserts that he does not like debt assets: “so if I’m going to take a tilt, it would be underweight in debt assets such as bonds,” he said.

Finance

Treasury delays deadline for small businesses to file new BOI form

Published

11 hours ago

December 26, 2024

Business Finance News

Janet Yellen, U.S. Treasury secretary, on a tour of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) in Vienna, Virginia, on Jan. 8, 2024.

Valerie Plesch/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The U.S. Treasury Department has delayed the deadline for millions of small businesses to Jan. 13, 2025, to file a new form, known as a Beneficial Ownership Information report.

The Treasury had initially required many businesses to file the report to the agency’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, known as FinCEN, by Jan. 1. Noncompliance carries potential fines that could exceed $10,000.

This delay comes as a result of legal challenges to the new reporting requirement under the Corporate Transparency Act.

The rule applies to about 32.6 million businesses, including certain corporations, limited liability companies and others, according to federal estimates.

Businesses and owners that didn’t comply would potentially face civil penalties of up to $591 a day, adjusted for inflation, according to FinCEN. They could also face up to $10,000 in criminal fines and up to two years in prison.

However, many small businesses are exempt. For example, those with over $5 million in gross sales and more than 20 full-time employees may not need to file a report.

Why Treasury delayed the BOI reporting requirement

The Treasury delayed the compliance deadline following a recent court ruling.

A federal court in Texas on Dec. 3 had issued a nationwide preliminary injunction that temporarily blocked FinCEN from enforcing the rule. However, the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals reversed that injunction on Monday.

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“Because the Department of the Treasury recognizes that reporting companies may need additional time to comply given the period when the preliminary injunction had been in effect, we have extended the reporting deadline,” according to the FinCEN website.

FinCEN didn’t return a request from CNBC for comment about the number of businesses that have filed a BOI report to date.

Some data, however, suggests few have done so.

The federal government had received about 9.5 million filings as of Dec. 1, according to statistics that FinCEN provided to the office of Rep. French Hill, R-Ark. That figure is about 30% of the estimated total.

Hill has called for the repeal of the Corporate Transparency Act, passed in 2021, which created the BOI requirement. Hill’s office provided the data to CNBC.

“Most non-exempt reporting companies have not filed their initial reports, presumably because they are unaware of the requirement,” Daniel Stipano, a partner at law firm Davis Polk & Wardwell, wrote in an e-mail.

There’s a potential silver lining for businesses: It’s “unlikely” FinCEN would impose financial penalties “except in cases of bad faith or intentional violations,” Stipano said.

“In its public statements, FinCEN has made clear that its primary goal at this point is to educate the public about the requirement, as opposed to taking enforcement actions against noncompliant companies,” he said.

Certain businesses are exempt from BOI filing

The BOI filing isn’t an annual requirement. Businesses only need to resubmit the form to update or correct information.

Many exempt businesses — such as large companies, banks, credit unions, tax-exempt entities and public utilities — already furnish similar data.

Businesses have different compliance deadlines depending on when they were formed.

For example, those created or registered before 2024 have until Jan. 13, 2025, to file their initial BOI reports, according to FinCEN. Those that do so on or after Jan. 1, 2025, have 30 days to file a report.

There will likely be additional court rulings that could impact reporting, Stipano said.

For one, litigation is ongoing in the 5th Circuit, which hasn’t formally ruled on the constitutionality of the Corporate Transparency Act.

“Judicial actions challenging the law have been brought in multiple jurisdictions, and these actions may eventually reach the Supreme Court,” he wrote. “As of now, it is unclear whether the incoming Trump administration will continue to support the Government’s position in these cases.”