Connect with us

Finance

Ray Dalio says the Fed faces a tough balancing act

Published

on

Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates co-chairman and co-chief investment officer, speaks during the Skybridge Capital SALT New York 2021 conference.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

As the U.S. Federal Reserve implemented its first interest rate cut since the early Covid pandemic, billionaire investor Ray Dalio flagged that the U.S. economy still faces an “enormous amount of debt.”

The central bank’s decision reduces the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%. The rate not only determines short-term borrowing costs for banks, but also impacts various consumer products like mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.

“The challenge of the Federal Reserve is to keep interest rates high enough that they’re good for the creditor, while keeping them not so high that they’re problematic for the debtor,” the founder of Bridgewater Associates told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday, noting the difficulty of this “balancing act.”

The U.S. Treasury Department recently reported that the government has spent more than $1 trillion this year on interest payments for its $35.3 trillion national debt. This increase in debt service costs also coincided with a significant rise in the U.S. budget deficit in August, which is approaching $2 trillion for the year.

On Wednesday, Dalio listed debt, money and the economic cycle as one of the top five forces influencing the global economy. Expanding on his point Thursday, he said he was generally interested in “the enormous amount of debt that is being created by governments and monetized by central banks. Those magnitudes have never existed in my lifetime.”

Governments around the world took on record debt burdens during the pandemic to finance stimulus packages and other economic measures to prevent a collapse.

When asked about his outlook and whether he sees a looming credit event, Dalio responded he did not.

“I see a big depreciation in the value of that debt through a combination of artificial low real rates, so you won’t be compensated,” he said.

While the economy “is in relative equilibrium,” Dalio noted there’s an “enormous” amount of debt that needs to be rolled over and also sold, new debt created by the government.”

Ray Dalio says the U.S. needs a strong leader of the middle and 'broad-based prosperity'

Dalio’s concern is that neither former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will prioritize debt sustainability, meaning these pressures are unlikely to alleviate regardless of who wins the upcoming presidential election.

“I think as time goes on, the path will be increasingly toward monetizing that debt, following a path very similar to Japan,” Dalio posited, pointing to how the Asian nation has kept interest rates artificially low, which had depreciated the Japanese yen and lowered the value of Japanese bonds.

“The value of a Japanese bond has gone down by 90% so that there’s a tremendous tax through artificially giving you a lower yield each year,” he said.

For years, Japan’s central bank stuck to its negative rates regime as it embarked on one of the most aggressive monetary easing exercises in the world. The country’s central bank only recently lifted interest rates in March this year.

How do negative interest rates work?

Additionally, when markets do not have enough buyers to take on the supply of debt, there could be a situation where interest rates have to go up or the Fed may have to step in and buy, which Dalio reckons they would.

“I would view [the] intervention of the Fed as a very significant bad event,” the billionaire said. Debt oversupply also raises questions of how it gets paid.

“If we were in hard money terms, then you would have a credit event. But in fiat monetary terms, you have the purchases of that debt by the central banks, monetizing the debt,” he said.

In that scenario, Dalio expects that the markets would also see all currencies go down as they’re all relative.

“So I think you’d see an environment very similar to the 1970’s environment, or the 1930 to ’45 type of period,” he said.

For his own portfolio, Dalio asserts that he does not like debt assets: “so if I’m going to take a tilt, it would be underweight in debt assets such as bonds,” he said. 

Continue Reading

Finance

Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: HIMS, TEM, FANG

Published

on

Continue Reading

Finance

Anthropic closes in on $3.5 billion funding round

Published

on

Dario Amodei, Anthropic CEO, speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box outside the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 21st, 2025.

Gerry Miller | CNBC

Anthropic is in talks to raise a $3.5 billion funding round, significantly more than the amount previously expected, CNBC has confirmed.

The round would roughly triple the artificial intelligence startup’s valuation to $61.5 billion, according to two sources familiar with the deal, who asked not to be named because the details aren’t public. Lightspeed Ventures is leading the funding, with participation from General Catalyst and others, the sources said.

The financing, which was first reported by the Wall Street Journal, signals continued investor demand for top-tier AI companies, even in the face of potential disruption from China’s DeepSeek. Anthropic is backed by Amazon and Google, and had initially set out to raise $2 billion, according to a source.

Anthropic declined to comment.

The company’s last private market valuation was $18 billion. Amazon has poured $8 billion into the startup.

Anthropic was founded by early OpenAI employees and is the creator of the popular chatbot Claude. Earlier Monday, Anthropic released what it says is it’s “most intelligent AI model yet. Its so-called hybrid model combines an ability to reason — or stopping to think about complex answers — with a traditional model that spits out answers in real time.

WATCH: Anthropic unveils newest AI model

Amazon-backed Anthropic unveils newest AI-model

Continue Reading

Finance

Jamie Dimon calls U.S. government ‘inefficient,’ touts Elon Musk’s DOGE effort

Published

on

Watch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Monday said the U.S. government is inefficient and in need of work as the Trump administration terminates thousands of federal employees and works to dismantle agencies including the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Dimon was asked by CNBC’s Leslie Picker whether he supported efforts by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. He declined to give what he called a “binary” response, but made comments that supported the overall effort.

“The government is inefficient, not very competent, and needs a lot of work,” Dimon told Picker. “It’s not just waste and fraud, its outcomes.”

The Trump administration’s effort to rein in spending and scrutinize federal agencies “needs to be done,” Dimon added.

“Why are we spending the money on these things? Are we getting what we deserve? What should we change?” Dimon said. “It’s not just about the deficit, its about building the right policies and procedures and the government we deserve.”

Dimon said if DOGE overreaches with its cost-cutting efforts or engages in activity that’s not legal, “the courts will stop it.”

“I’m hoping it’s quite successful,” he said.

In the wide-ranging interview, Dimon also addressed his company’s push to have most workers in office five days a week, as well as his views on the Ukraine conflict, tariffs and the U.S. consumer.

Watch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon

Continue Reading

Trending