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Retail sales July 2024:

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An H&M store is seen in Herald Square on July 01, 2024 in New York City. 

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

Consumer spending held up even better than expected in July as inflation pressures showed more signs of easing, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Advanced retail sales accelerated 1% on the month, according to numbers that are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.3% increase. June sales were revised to a decline of 0.2% after initially being reported as flat.

Excluding auto-related items, sales increased 0.4%, also better than the 0.1% forecast.

There was also good news on the labor market front: Initial unemployment benefit claims for the week ended Aug. 10 totaled 227,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week and lower than the estimate for 235,000.

Gains in sales were propelled by increases at motor vehicle and parts dealers (3.6%), electronics and appliance stores (1.6%), and food and beverage outlets (0.9%). Miscellaneous retailers saw a plunge of 2.5% while gas stations saw receipts climb just 0.1% and clothing stores were down 0.1%.

Stock market futures rose sharply following the Thursday morning data releases, while Treasury yields spiked as well.

The report comes the same week as data showing that inflation eased slightly in July.

Prices that consumers pay for goods and services increased 0.2% on the month, and the annual inflation rate declined to 2.9%, its lowest since March 2021. At the same time, wholesale prices were up just 0.1% on the month and 2.2% on the year.

While the inflation numbers remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the data shows continued easing of price pressures that had peaked two years ago. Financial markets expect the Fed to respond with its first rate cut in more than four years when it next meets in September, though a resilient consumer could give policymakers more reason to take a measured approach to cuts.

Echoing the theme of a stable consumer, Walmart earlier Thursday reported strong earnings and sales for the previous quarter and raised its outlook, though it sounded some cautionary notes about the second half of 2024.

In addition to looking for lower rates, investors also increasingly are expecting the Fed to turn its attention from a laser focus on inflation to a broader look at potentially weakening conditions in the labor market and elsewhere.

Unemployment benefit filings numbers from the Labor Department also showed that continuing claims, which run a week behind, declined slightly to 1.864 million. A weaker-than-expected July payrolls report had stirred concern that the labor market could be weakening.

Other economic data released Thursday showed that the manufacturing picture is wobbling.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing gauge edged higher but was still in negative territory at -4.7, slightly better than the -6 estimate. At the same time, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing measure slid to -7, its first negative reading since January and well below the forecast for 7.9.

Both indexes measure the percentage of companies reporting expansion against contraction.

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A protest against America’s TikTok ban is mired in contradiction

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AS A SHUTDOWN looms, TikTok in America has the air of the last day of school. The Brits are saying goodbye to the Americans. Australians are waiting in the wings to replace banished American influencers. And American users are bidding farewell to their fictional Chinese spies—a joke referencing the American government’s accusation that China is using the app (which is owned by ByteDance, a Chinese tech giant) to surveil American citizens.

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Economics

Home insurance costs soar as climate events surge, Treasury Dept. says

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Firefighters battle flames during the Eaton Fire in Pasadena, California, U.S., Jan. 7, 2025.

Mario Anzuoni | Reuters

Climate-related natural disasters are driving up insurance costs for homeowners in the most-affected regions, according to a Treasury Department report released Thursday.

In a voluminous study covering 2018-22 and including some data beyond that, the department found that there were 84 disasters costing $1 billion or more, excluding floods, and that they caused a combined $609 billion in damages. Floods are not covered under homeowner policies.

During the period, costs for policies across all categories rose 8.7% faster than the rate of inflation. However, the burden went largely to those living in areas most hit by climate-related events.

For consumers living in the 20% of zip codes with the highest expected annual losses, premiums averaged $2,321, or 82% more than those living in the 20% of lowest-risk zip codes.

“Homeowners insurance is becoming more costly and less accessible for consumers as the costs of climate-related events pose growing challenges to both homeowners and insurers alike,” said Nellie Liang, undersecretary of the Treasury for domestic finance.

The report comes as rescue workers continue to battle raging wildfires in the Los Angeles area. At least 25 people have been killed and 180,000 homeowners have been displaced.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the costs from the fires are still unknown, but noted that the report reflected an ongoing serious problem. During the period studied, there was nearly double the annual total of disasters declared for climate-related events as in the period of 1960-2010 combined.

“Moreover, this [wildfire disaster] does not stand alone as evidence of this impact, with other climate-related events leading to challenges for Americans in finding affordable insurance coverage – from severe storms in the Great Plans to hurricanes in the Southeast,” Yellen said in a statement. “This report identifies alarming trends of rising costs of insurance, all of which threaten the long-term prosperity of American families.”

Both homeowners and insurers in the most-affected areas were paying in other ways as well.

Nonrenewal rates in the highest-risk areas were about 80% higher than those in less-risky areas, while insurers paid average claims of $24,000 in higher-risk areas compared to $19,000 in lowest-risk regions.

In the Southeast, which includes states such as Florida and Louisiana that frequently are slammed by hurricanes, the claim frequency was 20% higher than the national average.

In the Southwest, which includes California, wildfires tore through 3.3 million acres during the time period, with five events causing more than $100 million in damages. The average loss claim was nearly $27,000, or nearly 50% higher than the national average. Nonrenewal rates for insurance were 23.5% higher than the national average.

The Treasury Department released its findings with just three days left in the current administration. Treasury officials said they hope the administration under President-elect Donald Trump uses the report as a springboard for action.

“We certainly are hopeful that our successors stay focused on this issue and continue to produce important research on this issue and think about important and creative ways to address it,” an official said.

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Economics

How bad will the smoke be for Angelenos’ health?

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Where there is fire, there is smoke. For the people of Los Angeles, this will add to the misery. Some are already suffering from burning throats and irritated eyes. Many miles from the wildfires, people are wearing masks; shops are running out. The fires may also cause long-term problems.

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