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Retail sales rose 0.4% in September, better than expected; jobless claims dip

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A customer during the grand re-opening of a Century 21 department store in New York, US, on Tuesday, May 16, 2023.

Stephanie Keith | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Consumer spending held up in September, underscoring a resilient economy that is now getting a boost from the Federal Reserve, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Retail sales increased a seasonally adjusted 0.4% on the month, up from the unrevised 0.1% gain in August and better than the 0.3% Dow Jones forecast, according to the advanced report.

Excluding autos, sales accelerated 0.5%, better than the forecast for just a 0.1% rise. The numbers are adjusted for seasonal factors but not inflation, which rose 0.2% on the month as measured by the consumer price index.

In other economic news Thursday, initial unemployment claim filings totaled a seasonally adjusted 241,000, a decline of 19,000 and lower than the estimate for 260,000, the Labor Department reported.

Claims declined even following hurricanes Helene and Milton, which tore through the Southeast in recent weeks exacting tens of billions of dollars in damages. Filings in both Florida and North Carolina declined after jumping the previous week, according to unadjusted data.

Stock market futures were higher after the reports while Treasury yields also rose.

Together, the reports show that consumers, who power about two-thirds of all economic activity in the U.S., are still spending and the labor market is holding up after signs of weakening through the summer.

On the retail side, spending grew at miscellaneous store retailers, which showed an increase of 4%, as well as at clothing stores (1.5%) and bars and restaurants (1%). Those increases offset a 1.6% drop at gas stations as fuel prices fell, along with declines at electronics and appliances stores (-3.3%) and furniture and home furnishing businesses (-1.4%).

The data comes from a month where the Fed cut its benchmark borrowing rate by a half percentage point and indicated more moves lower are likely this year and through 2025.

Policymakers have expressed confidence that inflation is on a glide path back to the Fed’s 2% target. However, they have expressed concern that the labor market is softening even with strong September payrolls growth and weekly claims that have stayed fairly in line after jumping due to the storm effects.

This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

Economics

Donald Trump has many ways to hurt Elon Musk

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THERE WAS a time, not long ago, when an important skill for journalists was translating the code in which powerful people spoke about each other. Carefully prepared speeches and other public remarks would be dissected for hints about the arguments happening in private. Among Donald Trump’s many achievements is upending this system. In his administration people seem to say exactly what they think at any given moment. Wild threats are made—to end habeas corpus; to take Greenland by force—without any follow-through. Journalists must now try to guess what is real and what is for show.

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Economics

Donald Trump has many ways to hurt Elon Musk

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THERE WAS a time, not long ago, when an important skill for journalists was translating the code in which powerful people spoke about each other. Carefully prepared speeches and other public remarks would be dissected for hints about the arguments happening in private. Among Donald Trump’s many achievements is upending this system. In his administration people seem to say exactly what they think at any given moment. Wild threats are made—to end habeas corpus; to take Greenland by force—without any follow-through. Journalists must now try to guess what is real and what is for show.

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Economics

Jobs report May 2025:

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U.S. payrolls increased 139,000 in May, more than expected; unemployment at 4.2%

Hiring decreased just slightly in May even as consumers and companies braced against tariffs and a potentially slowing economy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 139,000 for the month, above the muted Dow Jones estimate for 125,000 and a bit below the downwardly revised 147,000 that the U.S. economy added in April.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. A more encompassing measure that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed also was unchanged, holding at 7.8%.

Worker pay grew more than expected, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% during the month and 3.9% from a year ago, compared with respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%.

“Stronger than expected jobs growth and stable unemployment underlines the resilience of the US labor market in the face of recent shocks,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

Nearly half the job growth came from health care, which added 62,000, even higher than its average gain of 44,000 over the past year. Leisure and hospitality contributed 48,000 while social assistance added 16,000.

On the downside, government lost 22,000 jobs as efforts to cull the federal workforce by President Donald Trump and the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency began to show an impact.

Stock market futures jumped higher after the release as did Treasury yields.

Though the May numbers were better than expected, there were some underlying trouble spots.

The April count was revised lower by 30,000, while March’s total came down by 65,000 to 120,000.

There also were disparities between the establishment survey, which is used to generate the headline payrolls gain, and the household survey, which is used for the unemployment rate. The latter count, generally more volatile than the establishment survey, showed a decrease of 696,000 workers. Full-time workers declined by 623,000, while part-timers rose by 33,000.

“The May jobs report still has everyone waiting for the other shoe to drop,” said Daniel Zhao, lead economist at job rating site Glassdoor. “This report shows the job market standing tall, but as economic headwinds stack up cumulatively, it’s only a matter of time before the job market starts straining against those headwinds.”

The report comes against a teetering economic background, complicated by Trump’s tariffs and an ever-changing variable of how far he will go to try to level the global playing field for American goods.

Most indicators show that the economy is still a good distance from recession. But sentiment surveys indicate high degrees of anxiety from both consumers and business leaders as they brace for the ultimate impact of how much tariffs will slow business activity and increase inflation.

For their part, Federal Reserve officials are viewing the current landscape with caution.

The central bank holds its next policy meeting in less than two weeks, with markets largely expecting the Fed to stay on hold regarding interest rates. In recent speeches, policymakers have indicated greater concern with the potential for tariff-induced inflation.

“With the Fed laser-focused on managing the risks to the inflation side of its mandate, today’s stronger than expected jobs report will do little to alter its patient approach,” said Rosner, the Goldman Sachs strategist.

Friday also marks the final day before Fed officials head into their quiet period before the meeting, when they do not issue policy remarks.

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