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September consumer confidence falls the most in three years

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September consumer confidence falls the most in three years

Consumers’ view on the economy tumbled in September, falling by the largest level in more than three years as fears grew about jobs and business conditions, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.

The board’s Consumer Confidence Index slid to 98.7, down from 105.6 in August, the biggest one-month decline since August 2021. The Dow Jones consensus forecast was for a reading of 104.

Each of the five components the organization samples fared worse on the month, with the biggest fall coming among those aged 35-54 and earning less than $50,000.

“Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further. Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.

The last time the confidence index dropped more came as inflation was just beginning a climb to what ultimately was the highest level in more than 40 years.

Stocks saw some losses following the relief, while Treasury yields, while still mostly positive on the session, also nudged lower.

In addition to the steep drop in the confidence index, the Present Situation measure worsened by 10.3 points to 124.3 and the Expectations Index was off 4.6 points to 81.7. On the expectations measure, a reading below 80 is consistent with a recession.

Respondents’ concerns focused mostly on jobs and inflation.

Those saying jobs are plentiful continued to decline, falling to 30.9% from 32.7% in August, while the jobs “hard to get” measure rose to 18.3%, up from 16.8%.

On inflation, the 12-month outlook rose to 5.2%, with concerns over price increases topping the list of economic concerns.

“The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months remained low but there was a slight uptick in the percentage of consumers believing the economy was already in recession,” Peterson said.

The survey comes less than a week after the Federal Reserve voted to lower benchmark interest rates by a half percentage point, citing a more favorable outlook for inflation and worries over a potentially softening labor market. It was the first rate reduction in four years and double the traditional quarter-point reduction.

Economics

What would Robert F. Kennedy junior mean for American health?

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AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

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Economics

What would Robert Kennedy junior mean for American health?

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AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

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Economics

UK economy ekes out 0.1% growth, below expectations

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Bank of England in the City of London on 6th November 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district CBD of London. The City of London is widely referred to simply as the City is also colloquially known as the Square Mile. (photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images)

Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images

The U.K. economy expanded by 0.1% in the third quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.

That was below the expectations of economists polled by Reuters who forecast 0.2% gross domestic product growth on the previous three months of the year.

It comes after inflation in the U.K. fell sharply to 1.7% in September, dipping below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time since April 2021. The fall in inflation helped pave the way for the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, bringing its key rate to 4.75%.

The Bank of England said last week it expects the Labour Government’s tax-raising budget to boost GDP by 0.75 percentage points in a year’s time. Policymakers also noted that the government’s fiscal plan had led to an increase in their inflation forecasts.

The outcome of the recent U.S. election has fostered much uncertainty about the global economic impact of another term from President-elect Donald Trump. While Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected to be widely inflationary and hit the European economy hard, some analysts have said such measures could provide opportunities for the British economy.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gave little away last week on the bank’s views of Trump’s tariff agenda, but he did reference risks around global fragmentation.

“Let’s wait and see where things get to. I’m not going to prejudge what might happen, what might not happen,” he told reporters during a press briefing.

This is a breaking news story. Please refresh for updates.

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