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Should investors dump U.S. stocks for international equities? Experts weigh in

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Investors should use the relief rally to reduce exposure, says Fairlead's Katie Stockton

Some investors accustomed to the dominance of U.S. stocks versus the rest of the world are making a stunning pivot toward international equities, fearing U.S. assets may have taken on more risk amid escalating trade tensions initiated by President Donald Trump.

The S&P 500 sank more than 6% since Trump first announced his tariff plan, while the Dow and Nasdaq have each tumbled more than 7%.

There was a strong argument to dial back U.S. stock holdings and adopt a more global portfolio even before the recent volatility, said Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning for Morningstar.

“But I think the case for international diversification is even greater 1744909145, given recent developments,” she said.

Jacob Manoukian, head of U.S. investment strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, offered a similar assessment. “Global diversification seems like a prudent strategy,” he wrote in a research note on Monday.

U.S. had the world beat by ‘sizable margin’

Some experts, however, don’t think investors should be so quick to dump U.S. stocks and chase returns abroad.

The United States is still “a quality market that looks like a bargain,” said Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

U.S. stocks had been outperforming the world for years heading into 2025.

We are in an incredible moment for those who want to bet against U.S. stocks, says Jim Cramer

The S&P 500 index had an average annual return of 11.9% from mid-2008 through 2024, beating returns of developed countries by a “sizable margin,” according to analysts at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.

The MSCI EAFE index — which tracks stock returns in developed markets outside of the U.S. and Canada — was up 3.6% per year over the same period, on average, they wrote.

However, the story is different this year, experts say.

“In a surprising twist, the U.S. equity market has just offered investors a timely reminder about why diversification matters,” the analysts at J.P. Morgan Private Bank wrote. “Although U.S. outperformance has been a familiar feature of global equity markets since mid-2008, change is possible.”

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The Trump administration’s tariff policy and an escalating trade war with China have raised concerns about the growth of the U.S. economy.

U.S. markets have been under pressure ever since the White House first announced country-specific tariffs on April 2. Trump imposed tariffs on many nations, including a 145% levy on imports from China.

As of Thursday morning, the S&P 500 was down roughly 10% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq Composite has pulled back more than 16% in 2025. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had lost nearly 8%. Alternatively, the EAFE was up about 7%.

Is U.S. exceptionalism dead?

The sharp sell-off in U.S. markets has raised doubts as to whether U.S. assets “are as attractive to foreigners now as they once were and, perhaps as a consequence, whether ‘U.S. [equity] market exceptionalism’ could be on the way out,” market analysts at Capital Economics wrote Thursday.

At the same time, rising global trade tensions have taken a toll on the bond market, threatening to shake the confidence of holders of U.S. debt. The U.S. dollar has also weakened, nearing a one-year low as of Thursday morning.

It’s unusual for U.S. stocks, bonds and the dollar to fall at the same time, analysts said.

Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Monday that President Donald Trump’s tariffs have made it more difficult for Americans to find comfort in the U.S. financial system.

“This is really creating an environment in which households and businesses feel paralyzed by the uncertainty about what’s going to happen,” Yellen told CNBC during a “Squawk Box” interview. “It makes planning almost impossible.”

The U.S. fire had ‘already been burning’

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange at the opening bell in New York City, on April 17, 2025.

Timothy A. Clary | AFP | Getty Images

That said, international and U.S. stock returns tend to ebb and flow in cycles, with each showing multi-year periods of relative strength and weakness.

Since 1975, U.S. stock returns have outperformed those of international stocks for stretches of about eight years, on average, according to an analysis by Hartford Funds through 2024. Then, U.S. stocks cede the mantle to international stocks, it said.

Based on history, non-U.S. equities are overdue to reclaim the top spot: The U.S. is currently 13.8 years into the current cycle of stock outperformance, according to the Hartford Funds analysis.

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U.S. markets had already showed weakness heading into the year amid concerns about the health of the economy grew and as “air came out the valuations of ‘big-tech’ stocks,” according to Capital Economics analysts.

“In that respect, ‘Liberation Day’ — which accentuated these moves — only added fuel to a fire that had already been burning,” they wrote.

Advisors: ‘Tread carefully here’

A good starting point for investors would be to mirror a global stock fund like the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF (VT), said Benz of Morningstar. That fund holds about 63% of assets in U.S. stocks and 37% in non-U.S. stocks.

It may make sense to pare back exposure to international stocks as individual investors approach retirement, she said, to reduce the volatility that comes from fluctuations in foreign exchange rates.

“Part of our core models for clients have always had international exposure, it’s traditionally part of any risk-adjusted portfolio,” said certified financial planner Douglas Boneparth, president of Bone Fide Wealth in New York, of the conversations he is having with his clients.

Financial advisor or business people meeting discussing financial figures. They are discussing finance charts and graphs on a laptop computer. Rear view of sitting in an office and are discussing performance

Courtneyk | E+ | Getty Images

Even though those asset classes didn’t perform as well over the last few years, “they’ve done a pretty good job here of helping reduce the brunt of this tariff volatility,” said Boneparth, a member of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council.

Still, Boneparth cautions investors against making any sudden moves to add non-U.S. equities to their portfolios.

“If you are thinking about making changes now, be careful,” he said. “Do you lock in losses to U.S. stocks to gain international exposure? You want to tread carefully here,” he said. “Are you chasing or timing? You usually don’t want to do those things.”

However, this may be a good time to check your investments to make sure you are still allocated properly and rebalance as needed, he added. “By rebalancing, you can rotate out of less risky assets into equities, strategically buying the dip.”

There have been very few times in history when clients asked about increasing their investments overseas, “which is happening now,” said CFP Barry Glassman, the founder and president of Glassman Wealth Services.

“Given that both stocks and currency are outperforming U.S. indices it’s no wonder there is greater interest in foreign stocks today,” said Glassman, who is also a member of the CNBC Advisor Council.

“Even in the past, when U.S. stocks have fallen, the dollar’s gains helped to offset a portion of the losses. In the past two weeks, that has not been the case,” he said.

Glassman said he maintains a two-thirds to one-third ratio of U.S. stocks to foreign stock funds in the portfolios he manages.

“We are not making any moves now,” he said. “The moves for us were made over time to maintain what we consider the appropriate foreign allocation.”

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Personal Finance

How to save on groceries amid food price inflation

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Signs of strain: Grocery debt, food pantry visits

What tariffs could mean for grocery prices

More Americans are using buy now, pay later loans to buy groceries. About 25% of respondents said they have used buy now, pay later loans to buy groceries this year, up from 14% in 2024, LendingTree found. More are also falling behind on those bills: 41% of respondents made a late payment on a BNPL loan in the past year, higher from 34% the year prior, the report found.

Some consumers are in more dire straits. In the past year, about 19% of polled Americans said they had to get food from a food bank or a pantry, according to a new Pew Research Center report.

‘Use all available resources’ to save on food

1. Plan your meals

A good first step is to plan out your meals in advance, said Thomas Gremillion, director of food policy at the Consumer Federation of America.

Once you have an idea of the kinds of meals you’re going to prepare, write out a list of the things you’ll need before stepping into the grocery store. 

People tend to spend less money when they go to the grocery store with a list, Gremillion said.

Look over supermarket sales circulars as you plan. Often, they feature discounted prices on certain brands or cuts of meat, said NerdWallet’s Palmer. “Maintaining that flexibility can help,” she said.

2. Stack discounts and coupons

3. Consider store brands

4. Reconsider where you shop

5. Tap government, local aid

The Credit Karma report found that 17% of respondents applied or considered applying for food stamps while 16% are relying on food banks. Those can be valuable resources for families in need.

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP benefits, is a federal government program that provides food benefits for qualifying low-income families, said Courtney Alev, the consumer financial advocate at Credit Karma. Contact your local SNAP office for more information; you may need to meet certain requirements in order to qualify.

Local food banks and pantries are available to anyone struggling to afford groceries, and typically more accessible compared to benefits like SNAP, experts say.

However, you might be required to provide information, depending on the food bank’s specific criteria or policies, experts say. For instance, some might require a proof of residence and income, Alev said.

You can look up your nearest food bank on websites like feedingamerica.org or 211.org.

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Personal Finance

What stagflation may mean for your money

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D3sign | Moment | Getty Images

The U.S. economy is still in a “strong position” despite “heightened uncertainty,” according to the Federal Reserve’s latest assessment.

Yet there’s a looming economic risk the U.S. hasn’t meaningfully faced for decades — stagflation.

“The risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation appear to have risen,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on May 7.

Those two factors — along with slower economic growth — are the definition of stagflation.

Fed leaves rates unchanged, but risks of higher inflation and unemployment has risen

Stagflation is not here yet. The unemployment rate is low and inflation has come down, though it is still higher than the Fed’s 2% target, Powell noted last week. Signs that the economy is in a “solid position” prompted the central bank to leave the short-term federal funds interest rate unchanged.

What’s fueling stagflation fears

Swiftly shifting tariff policies are the main threat prompting experts to sound stagflation warnings. Uncertainty related to tariffs is also a strong factor contributing to stagflation risks, according to Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.

“Uncertainty, in and of itself, is a drag on economic growth,” McBride said.

Businesses may react by not hiring, not expanding production, not making investments and otherwise waiting for the forecast to change, he said.

“Even if a lot of [the tariffs] never actually come to fruition, this period of uncertainty itself is a headwind to the economy,” McBride said.

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Stagflation was last a major issue for the U.S. economy in the 1970s as the country contended with the economic fallout of the Vietnam War, the loss of manufacturing jobs and spikes in oil prices.

While different factors are present today, stagflation is a “more pronounced risk than at any time over the past 40 years,” Greg Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon and vice president at the National Association for Business Economics, recently told CNBC.com.

Meanwhile, consumer confidence sank to its lowest reading in five years as tariffs impacted individuals’ outlook and employment confidence, according to the Conference Board’s April survey. Nevertheless, total retail sales were up in April, both month over month and year over year, as consumers moved up purchases in anticipation of tariffs prompting higher prices, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.

How consumers can prepare for stagflation

Stagflation’s effects would be felt across the U.S. economy. However, there are several ways individuals can minimize their personal exposure ahead of those risks, experts say.

1. Pay down high interest debts

Eliminating credit card or other high-interest debts like home equity loans can help create more room in your budget, particularly as interest rates stay put for now.

“If stagflation comes to pass, you’re going to need that breathing room, because inflation will be high, and prices for all your expenses will be moving higher,” McBride said.

2. Boost emergency savings

Most respondents — 65% — to the May CNBC Fed Survey said they expect the Fed will lower interest rates if stagflation risks come to pass.

With interest rates holding steady, cash savers still have a unique opportunity to access higher returns.

Top-yielding online savings accounts are still offering interest rates that are above the rate of inflation, according to McBride. That may not always be the case if interest rates come down and the rate of inflation picks up.

Having cash set aside can help prevent the accumulation of high-cost debt or the need to prematurely raid retirement accounts in the face of income disruptions, rising expenses or other unexpected costs, McBride said.

3. Think twice before stocking up on goods

Pending tariffs could mean rising prices on a variety of goods from leather goods to apparel to cars. That may tempt consumers to want to rush to buy the products they anticipate they will need, in order to save money.

But buyer beware: So-called “panic buying” can mean you shell out more money than you otherwise would by purchasing more than you need.

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Personal Finance

House GOP tax bill calls for $30,000 ‘SALT’ deduction cap

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Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) speaks during a House Committee on Ways and Means in the Longworth House Office Building on April 30, 2024 in Washington, D.C.

Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images News | Getty Images

House Republicans are calling for a higher limit on the deduction for state and local taxes, known as SALT, as part of President Donald Trump‘s tax and spending package.

The House Ways and Means Committee, which oversees tax, released the full text of its portion of the bill on Monday afternoon. The SALT provision would raise the cap to $30,000 for those with a modified adjusted gross income of $400,000 or less.

However, the SALT deduction limit has been a sticking point in tax bill negotiations and the provision could still change significantly. The committee is scheduled to debate and vote on the legislation on Tuesday afternoon.    

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Enacted via the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, of 2017, there’s a $10,000 limit on the federal deduction on state and local taxes, known as SALT, which will sunset after 2025 without action from Congress.

Currently, if you itemize tax breaks, you can’t deduct more than $10,000 in levies paid to state and local governments, including income and property taxes.

Raising the SALT cap has been a priority for certain lawmakers from high-tax states like California, New Jersey and New York. With a slim House Republican majority, those voices could impact negotiations.

While Trump enacted the $10,000 SALT cap in 2017, he reversed his position on the campaign trail last year, vowing to “get SALT back” if elected again. He has renewed calls for reform since being sworn into office.

Lawmakers have floated several updates, including a complete repeal, which seems unlikely with a tight budget and several competing priorities, experts say.

“It all has to come together in the context of the broader package,” but a higher SALT deduction limit could be possible, Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation, told CNBC earlier this month.

Here’s who could be impacted.

How to claim the SALT deduction

When filing taxes, you choose the greater of the standard deduction or your itemized deductions, including SALT capped at $10,000, medical expenses above 7.5% of your adjusted gross income, charitable gifts and others.

Starting in 2018, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act doubled the standard deduction, and it adjusts for inflation yearly. For 2025, the standard deduction is $15,000 for single filers and $30,000 for married couples filing jointly.

Because of the high threshold, the vast majority of filers — roughly 90%, according to the latest IRS data — use the standard deduction and don’t benefit from itemized tax breaks.

Typically, itemized deductions increase with income, and higher earners tend to owe more in state income and property taxes, according to Watson.

Who benefits from a higher SALT limit

Generally, higher earners would benefit most from raising the SALT deduction limit, experts say.

For example, an earlier proposal, which would remove the “marriage penalty” in federal income taxes, involves increasing the cap on the SALT deduction for married couples filing jointly from $10,000 to $20,000.

That would offer almost all the tax break to households making more than $200,000 per year, according to a January analysis from the Tax Policy Center.

“If you raise the cap, the people who benefit the most are going to be upper-middle income,” said Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

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Of course, upper-middle income looks different depending on where you live, he said.

Forty of the top 50 U.S. congressional districts impacted by the SALT limit are in California, Illinois, New Jersey or New York, a Bipartisan Policy Center analysis from before 2022 redistricting found.

If lawmakers repealed the cap completely, households making $430,000 or more would see nearly three-quarters of the benefit, according to a separate Tax Policy Center analysis from September.

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