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Slow US tax collections spark angst about debt ceiling X-date

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Tax collection projections are down. Refunds are up. That’s a formula that could dampen U.S. government revenue and, if it persists, portend an earlier deadline for Congress to raise the debt ceiling — or risk a federal payments default.

That’s a potentially worrying sign for bond market watchers and the broader economy if the trend continues. Most estimates show the U.S. running out of funds to cover all of its obligations on time in the late summer or early fall, but some forecasters have also warned weak revenue intake could mean a breach as soon as late May or June.

The U.S. Treasury’s cash balance dropped to $281 billion on Thursday, according to the latest data from the department. Beyond that stockpile, it had, as of March 26, only $207 billion of so-called extraordinary measures left to continue to fulfill its financial obligations.

Tumult in Washington — cuts in the ranks of Internal Revenue Service agents spurred by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, along with a tariff campaign that’s damaging consumer and business sentiment — could be contributing to lower-than-predicted tax collections, experts said.

The Congressional Budget Office on Wednesday warned about the potential for an earlier-than-anticipated debt ceiling breach, saying its baseline X-date estimate is for August or September, but noted that, if the government’s borrowing needs are significantly greater than projected, the Treasury’s resources could run out as early as late May.

So far this year, IRS receipts are coming in slower than projected. Filing season statistics show that the number of returns the agency has received is down 1.1%, compared with a similar time frame for 2024. Tax payments tend to spike in the final weeks before April 15 as filers who owe wait as long as possible to send in their money. As for refunds, however, the total is 4.6% higher than last year.

GOP wrangling

Congress doesn’t yet have a plan to address the debt ceiling if the X-date creeps closer on the calendar.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune is currently working to advance a Republican-led budget resolution that would include, with President Donald Trump’s tax cuts, at least a $4 trillion debt ceiling increase. But GOP lawmakers are just at the beginning stages of a lengthy and politically complicated negotiation that’s unlikely to be wrapped up in two months.

If the risk of a payment default seems more likely for May, Republicans will be pressured to temporarily set aside the tax-cut bill and focus solely on the debt ceiling. That would mean needing to rely on Democrats — because it’s unlikely there’d be a sufficient number of Republicans to back a debt-ceiling hike if it lacked the attraction of being combined with tax cuts. And that in turn would kick off another politically perilous game-of-chicken that could spook bond markets.

CBO Director Phillip Swagel told CNBC on Thursday he expects revenue tied to the April 15 individual tax-filing deadline and the June 15 due date for taxpayers with automatic extensions will tide the Treasury’s coffers over for a period.

Auditing question

“We are pretty confident that the government will get past those,” he said. “And then over the summer is the challenging part.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said his department will offer a debt-ceiling update in early May, after the bulk of the tax receipts come in.

The biggest unknown is whether DOGE’s moves to reduce IRS staffing will hamper the agency’s ability to collect taxes and taxpayers’ willingness to pay up. Reductions in the IRS workforce could come with “dramatic increases in noncompliance,” according to a recent Yale Budget Lab report.

“People might change their behavior in terms of filing taxes, and again, sort of be more aggressive in taking those deductions to try to sort of evade taxes,” said Richard Prisinzano, director of policy analysis at the Yale Budget Lab. 

“If we don’t see a payment boost then it’s more likely that people have changed their behavior,” he added. They know “the IRS is going to be in a weaker position to audit,” he said.

Shai Akabas, vice president of economic policy for Bipartisan Policy Center, said that while it is too early to tell, he’s more optimistic about the Treasury’s runway to keep paying the government’s bills.

“It might be a slightly higher possibility this year because of the unique factors that are going on,” Akabas said. “But we still think it is less than likely that all those factors will materialize in a way that leads to a large miss on tax season.”

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Accounting

House passes tax administration bills

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The House unanimously passed four bipartisan bills Tuesday concerning taxes and the Internal Revenue Service that were all endorsed this week by the American Institute of CPAs, and passed two others as well.

  • H.R. 1152, the Electronic Filing and Payment Fairness Act, sponsored by Rep. Darin LaHood, R-Illinois, Suzan Delbene, D-Washington, Randy Feenstra, R-Iowa, Brad Schneider, D-Illinois, Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pennsylvania and Jimmy Panetta, D-California. The bill would apply the “mailbox rule” to electronically submitted tax returns and payments to allow the IRS to record payments and documents submitted to the IRS electronically on the day the payments or documents are submitted instead of when they are received or reviewed at a later date. The AICPA believes this would offer clarity and simplification to the payment and document submission process while protecting taxpayers from undue penalties.
  • H.R. 998, the Internal Revenue Service Math and Taxpayer Help Act, sponsored by Rep. Randy Feenstra, R-Iowa, and Brad Schneider, D-Illinois, which would require notices describing a mathematical or clerical error to be made in plain language, and require the Treasury to provide additional procedures for requesting an abatement of a math or clerical error adjustment, including by telephone or in person, among other provisions.
  • H.R. 517, the Filing Relief for Natural Disasters Act, sponsored by Rep. David Kustoff, R-Tennessee, and Judy Chu, D-California. The process of receiving tax relief from the IRS following a natural disaster typically must follow a federal disaster declaration, which can often come weeks after a state disaster declaration. The bill would provide the IRS with authority to grant tax relief once the governor of a state declares either a disaster or a state of emergency and expand the mandatory federal filing extension under Section 7508(d) of the Tax Code from 60 days to 120 days, providing taxpayers with more time to file tax returns after a disaster.
  • H.R. 1491, the Disaster related Extension of Deadlines Act, sponsored by Rep. Gregory Murphy, R-North Carolina, and Jimmy Panetta, D-California, would extend the amount of time disaster victims would have to file for a tax refund or credit (i.e., the lookback period) by the amount of time afforded pursuant to a disaster relief postponement period for taxpayers affected by major disasters. This legislative solution would place taxpayers on equal footing as taxpayers not impacted by major disasters and would afford greater clarity and certainty to taxpayers and tax practitioners regarding this lookback period.

“The AICPA has long supported these proposals and will continue to work to advance comprehensive legislation that enhances IRS operations and improves the taxpayer experience,” said Melanie Lauridsen, vice president of tax policy and advocacy for the AICPA, in a statement Tuesday. “We are pleased to work closely with each of these Representatives on common-sense reforms that will benefit taxpayers, tax practitioners and tax administration and we’re encouraged by their passage in the House. We look forward to continuing to work with Congress to improve the taxpayer experience.”

The bills were also included in a recent Senate discussion draft aimed at improving tax administration at the IRS that are strongly supported by the AICPA.

The House also passed two other tax-related bills Tuesday that weren’t endorsed in the recent AICPA letter. 

  • H.R. 1155, Recovery of Stolen Checks Act, sponsored by Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, R-New York, would require the IRS to create a process for taxpayers to request a replacement via direct deposit for a stolen paper check. If a check is determined to be stolen or lost, and not cashed, a taxpayer will receive a replacement check once the original check is cancelled, but many taxpayers are having their replacement checks stolen as well. Taxpayers who have a check stolen are then unable to request that the replacement check be sent via direct deposit. The bill would require the Treasury to establish processes and procedures under which taxpayers, who are otherwise eligible to receive an amount by paper check in replacement of a lost or stolen paper check, may elect to receive such amount by direct deposit.
  • H.R. 997, National Taxpayer Advocate Enhancement Act, sponsored by Rep. Randy Feenstra, R-Iowa, would prevent IRS interference with National Taxpayer Advocate personnel by granting the NTA responsibility for its attorneys. In advocating for taxpayer rights, the National Taxpayer Advocate often requires independent legal advice. But currently, the staff members hired by the National Taxpayer Advocate are accountable to internal IRS counsel, not the Taxpayer Advocate, creating a potential conflict of interest to the detriment of taxpayers. The bill would authorize the National Taxpayer Advocate to hire attorneys who report directly to her, helping establish independence from the IRS. 

House  Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith, R-Missouri, applauded the bipartisan House passage of the various bills, which had been unanimously passed by the committee.

“President Trump was elected on the promise of finally making the government work better for working people,” Smith said in a statement Tuesday. “This bipartisan legislation helps fulfill that mandate and makes improvements to tax administration that will make it easier for the American people to file their taxes. Those who are rebuilding after a natural disaster particularly need help filing taxes, which is why this set of bills lightens the load for taxpayers in communities struck by a hurricane, tornado or some other disaster. With Tax Day just a few days away, we must look for common-sense, bipartisan ways to make filing taxes less of a hassle.”

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Accounting

In the blogs: Many hats

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Teaching fraud; easement settlement offers; new blog on the block; and other highlights from our favorite tax bloggers.

Many hats

  • Taxbuzz (https://www.taxbuzz.com/blog): There’s sure an “I” in this “teamwork:” What to know about potential IRS and ICE collaboration.
  • Tax Vox (https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox): How IRS data would likely be unhelpful validating SNAP eligibility.
  • Yeo & Yeo (https://www.yeoandyeo.com/resources): How financial benchmarking (including involving taxes) can help business clients see trends, pinpoint areas for improvement and forecast future performance.
  • Integritas3 (https://www.integritas3.com/blog): One way to take a bite out of crime, according to this instructor blogger: Teach grad students how to detect, investigate and prevent financial fraud.
  • HBK (https://hbkcpa.com/insights/): Verifying income, fairly distributing property, digging the soon-to-be-ex’s assets out of the back of the dark, dark closet: How forensic accounting has emerged as a crucial element in divorces.

Standing out

Genuine intelligence

  • AICPA & CIMA Insights (https://www.aicpa-cima.com/blog): How artificial intelligence and other tech is “Reshaping Finance,” according to this podcast. Didem Un Ates, CEO of a U.K.-based company offering AI advisory services, tackles the topic.
  • Taxjar (https:/www.taxjar.com/resources/blog): How AI and automation can help even the knottiest sales tax obligations and problems.
  • Dean Dorton (https://deandorton.com/insights/): Favorite opening of the week: “The madness doesn’t just happen on college basketball courts — it also happens when your finance team is stuck using a legacy on-premises accounting system.”
  • Canopy (https://www.getcanopy.com/blog): Top client portals for accounting firms in 2025.
  • Mauled Again (https://mauledagain.blogspot.com/): Despite what Facebook claims, dependents have to be human.

New to us

  • Berkowitz Pollack Brant (https://www.bpbcpa.com/articles-press-releases/): This Florida firm offers a variety of services to many industries and has a good, wide-ranging blog. Recent topics include the BE-10, nexus and state and local tax obligations, IRS cuts and what to know about the possible bonus depreciation phase out. Welcome!

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Accounting

Is gen AI really a SOX gamechanger?

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By streamlining tasks such as risk assessment, control testing, and reporting, gen AI has the potential to increase efficiency across the entire SOX lifecycle.

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