Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee in the Hart Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill on February 11, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Respondents to the March CNBC Fed Survey have raised the risk of recession to the highest level in six months, cut their growth forecast for 2025 and raised their inflation outlook.
Much of the change appears to stem from concern over fiscal policies from the Trump administration, especially tariffs, which are now seen by them as the top threat to the US economy, replacing inflation. The outlook for the S&P 500 declined for the first time since September.
The 32 survey respondents, who include fund managers, strategists and analysts, raised the probability of recession to 36% from 23% in January. The January number had dropped to a three-year low and looked to have reflected initial optimism following the election of President Trump. But like many consumer and business surveys, the recession probability now shows considerable concern about the outlook.
“We’ve had an abundance of discussions with investors who are increasingly concerned the Trump agenda has gone off the rails due to trade policy,” said Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics. “Consequently, the economic risks of something more insidious than a soft patch are growing.”
“The degree of policy volatility is unprecedented,” said John Donaldson, director of fixed income at Haverford Trust.
The average GDP forecast for 2025 declined to 1.7% from 2.4%, a sharp markdown that ended consecutive increases in the three prior surveys dating back to September. GDP is forecast to bounced back to 2.1% in 2026, in line with prior forecasts.
“The risks to consumers’ spending are skewed to the downside,” said Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research. “Alongside a frozen housing market and less spending across state and local governments, there is meaningful downside to current estimates of 2025 GDP.”
Fed rate cut outlook
Most continue to believe the Fed will cut rates at least twice and won’t hike rates, even if faced with persistently higher prices and weaker growth. Three-quarters forecast two or more quarter-point cuts this year. Part of the reason is that two-thirds believe that tariffs will result in one-time price hikes rather than a broader outbreak of inflation. But the policy uncertainty has created a wider range of views on the Fed than normal with 19% believing the Fed won’t cut at all.
Still, higher tariffs and weaker growth are a dilemma for the Fed.
“Powell is really stuck here because of the tariff overhang,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer, Bleakley Financial Group. “If he gets more worried about growth because of them and cuts rates as unemployment rises but then Trump removes all the tariffs, he’s jumped the gun.”
More than 70% of respondents believe tariffs are bad for inflation, jobs and growth. 34% say tariffs will decrease US manufacturing with 22% saying they will result in no change. Thirty-seven percent of respondents believe tariffs will end up in greater manufacturing output. More than 70% believe the DOGE effort to reduce government employment is bad for growth and jobs but will be modestly deflationary.
“A global trade war, haphazard DOGE cuts to government jobs and funding, aggressive immigrant deportations, and dysfunction in DC threaten to push what was an exceptionally performing economy into recession,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist, Moody’s Analytics.
Texas is continuing to stake a claim as a rival to Wall Street as a key financial hub in the United States, with Gov. Greg Abbott on Tuesday saying his state has a “stronger brand than New York.”
“Capital Markets are realizing that the place to be is Texas,” Abbott said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
Abbott’s comments come as Texas continues to emerge as a financial center, complete with its own stock exchange. The Texas Stock Exchange plans to launch in 2026 and recently announced several key hires for its exchange-traded products business.
The financial industry’s leading companies are also working to increase their presence in the Lone Star State. The New York Stock Exchange announced in February it would relocate its Chicago operations to Texas, and on Tuesday, Nasdaq announced it will open a regional headquarters in Dallas.
“Nasdaq is deeply ingrained in the fabric of the Texas economy, and we look forward to maintaining our leadership as the partner of choice for the state’s most innovative companies,” Adena Friedman, Nasdaq CEO, said in a press release.
Trading at most major stock exchanges around the world, including the NYSE and Nasdaq, is done almost entirely electronically. Stocks can trade on multiple exchanges in different locations although they have one designated primary listing.
Texas is also making a play to rival Delaware as a legal home to major companies, touting a more business-friendly legal environment. That includes making it harder for small shareholders to sue companies, as happened to Tesla in Delaware in a legal fight over CEO Elon Musk’s compensation. Tesla has since shifted its state of incorporation to Texas.
“A guy who had the [stock holdings] value of less than a Tesla vehicle was able to try to upend the entire corporate practice of the Tesla company,” Abbott said Tuesday. “That’s just wrong. What we are trying to codify in Texas is ownership of at least 3% of a business before a derivative action can be brought against a company.”
The view from inside a Zeekr Mix electric vehicle at one of the company’s showrooms in Shanghai, China, on March 16, 2025.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
BEIJING — Chinese electric car company Zeekr is releasing advanced driver-assistance capabilities to its local customers for free as competition heats up, Zeekr CEO Andy An told CNBC ahead of a launch event Tuesday.
The tech enables the car to drive nearly autonomously from one pre-set destination to another, as long as drivers keep their hands on the steering wheel and there is regulatory approval — which is increasingly the case in most major Chinese cities.
It’s the latest Chinese electric vehicle brand to upgrade its driver-assistance products as Tesla tries to attract more buyers of its own version, called Full Self Driving, in China.
Zeekr’s version will be free, rolled out to a pilot group initially and then released to the public in April, according to the company.
“Right now, in this period of development, I think subscriptions aren’t that meaningful,” CEO An said in an interview Friday, according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks.
Given intense competition, he said, Zeekr needs to close the gap on driver assistance with market leaders and become a top player. “So we need to bear some cost,” An said, noting Zeekr previously only offered more basic driver-assistance capabilities, such as for parking.
Zeekr, which is listed in the U.S., is scheduled to release quarterly earnings on Thursday ahead of the U.S. market open. Shares are up about 6% year-to-date.
Nvidia chips
CEO An said that Zeekr’s driver-assistance system uses two Nvidia Orin X chipsets and one lidar, or a light detection and ranging unit that allows a vehicle to navigate roads without relying too much on sunlight conditions.
He said a forthcoming version of the system will use Nvidia’s more advanced Thor automotive chip, one long-range lidar and four shorter-range lidar units.
“Using lidar may increase cost, but this reflects how much we value safety,” An said. He said the driver-assistance system for Zeekr cars sold overseas will not use the Nvidia chips for now, given different regulations and local market demand.
Zeekr’s driver-assistance system will also be used for fellow EV brand Lynk & Co.’s cars, An said, and potentially vehicles from parent company Geely. Zeekr officially acquired Lynk & Co. this year.
From price war to driver-assistance competition
Sales of Nvidia’s “self-driving platforms” helped drive the chipmaker’s revenue from automotive and robotics to a record $570 million in the fourth quarter of the 2025 fiscal year.
Also reflecting market demand, major lidar producer Hesai said this month that its lidar shipments have more than doubled annually for four straight years as of 2024.
Hesai’s CFO Andrew Fan told CNBC last week that the company expects significant growth in advanced driver-assistance systems this year from last year, and noted an industry joke that China’s electric car market has shifted from a price war to a war over driver assistance.
Over the last two years, the technology has increasingly become a selling point for new energy vehicles in China, which include battery-only and hybrid-powered cars.
NEV giant BYD in February announced it was rolling out driver-assist capabilities to more than 20 of its car models. While current features mostly focus on parking and highway navigation, the company said an upgrade with point-to-point driver assistance would likely be issued by the end of 2025.
The most basic version of BYD’s driver-assistance system uses Horizon Robotics’ chipset along with Nvidia‘s Orin, while more advanced versions only use other Nvidia chips, according to Nomura’s research.
Check out the companies making headlines in premarket trading. Ralph Lauren — The fashion stock added 2.8% following an upgrade at Goldman Sachs to buy from neutral. The bank said Ralph Lauren has limited exposure to tariffs versus its peers. Duolingo — The language learning application climbed 1.5% following an upgrade to outperform from Citizens JMP Securities. Analyst Andrew Boone noted that Duolingo’s Max subscriptions could be a boon for the stock moving forward, and also cited an attractive valuation as a bullish catalyst. Peabody Energy — Shares of the coal mining company gained 4.8% after President Donald Trump on Truth Social said he is authorizing energy production using coal. Eastman Kodak — Shares of the film and chemicals manufacturer rose more than 4% after the company reported a jump in net income for the fourth quarter. Kodak said it generated $26 million in net income for the quarter, up from $5 million in the year ago period. Lucid — Shares gained 2.8%. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas upgraded stock in the electric vehicle company to equal weight, noting that the firm’s artificial intelligence strategy could be a positive catalyst for Lucid. Hallador Energy — The energy provider dropped 6% after its fourth-quarter revenue missed expectations. The firm reported revenue of $94.2 million, while analysts polled by FactSet were looking for $95.5 million. Baidu — Shares climbed 2% after the Chinese technology company released two new artificial intelligence models. Sarepta Therapeutics — The biotech stock dropped more than 25% after the company disclosed the death of a man with Duchenne muscular dystrophy after treatments with Elevidys. “Acute liver injury is a known possible side effect of ELEVIDYS,” the company said in a statement . Tesla — The electric vehicle maker shed 3% in the premarket as its volatile ride continues. Earlier, analysts at RBC Capital Markets cut their price target on the stock, citing increasing competition . — CNBC’s Sarah Min, Michelle Fox and Jesse Pound contributed reporting