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Social Security cost-of-living adjustment may be 2.6% in 2025: estimate

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Even as new government inflation data shows inflation subsiding, many retirees are still struggling under the weight of higher costs.

Next year’s Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, may not provide much relief.

In 2025, the Social Security COLA may be 2.6%, according to Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst.

That’s down from the 3.2% boost to benefits Americans saw in 2024. It’s also substantially lower than the 8.7% COLA Social Security beneficiaries received in 2023, and the 5.9% increase for 2022.

The prospective Social Security COLA for 2025 would be the lowest since 2021 but in line with the average cost-of-living adjustments for the past two decades, according to Johnson.

The estimate for 2025 is still subject to change. The annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment is calculated based on third-quarter data from a subset of the consumer price index, known as the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W.  

The size of the official increase may change as new CPI data comes in.

The Social Security Administration typically announces the COLA for the following year in October.

Older Americans feeling ‘lingering effects’ of high costs

More than half of adults ages 50 and up — 61% — worry they will not have enough money to support them in retirement, according to a recent AARP survey.

Inflation is also a persistent concern for those older Americans, with 37% worried about covering basic expenses such as food and housing. Meanwhile, 70% are worried about prices rising faster than their incomes.

High inflation tends to hurt retirees more than near-retirees, since retirees’ income is less likely to go up as prices rise, according to the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

Social Security benefits — which are adjusted annually for inflation — are an exception.

However, some experts argue the annual increases to benefits have fallen short.

The average Social Security benefit has lost 20% of its buying power since 2010, according to recent research from the Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior group.

Today’s average monthly benefit for retired workers would have to increase from $1,860 to $2,230 — nearly 20% — to keep pace with 2010 buying power, the group’s research found.

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Another measure for the cost-of-living adjustment — the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly, or CPI-E — may better reflect the costs retirees face, advocates including the Senior Citizens League have said.

However, not all experts agree the cost-of-living adjustment measure should be changed.

While the annual adjustments are now calculated using a backward-looking method, they tend to fully compensate for inflation over time, Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, previously told CNBC.com.

Though the CPI-E has previously risen faster than the currently used measure for the cost-of-living adjustments, that gap narrowed in recent years, research from the Center for Retirement Research found. Consequently, switching to the CPI-E may not be the most effective move, the authors argued.

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Personal Finance

Maximizing Returns in High Rate Climate and market uncertainty

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Maximizing Returns in High-Rate Climate

In the macroeconomic environment of late July 2026, personal cash management requires an active, structured approach to wealth preservation. With central bank benchmark rates remaining elevated to ensure long-term disinflation, conservative yield-bearing vehicles—such as short-term U.S. Treasury bills, money market funds, and high-yield savings accounts (HYSAs)—continue to offer reliable nominal returns between 4% and 5%. For individual investors, maximizing net returns requires moving beyond passive checking accounts and executing a disciplined cash laddering strategy.

Leaving substantial liquid capital in traditional bank deposits creates an invisible drag on personal net worth due to ongoing inflation. By implementing a tiered liquidity framework, individuals can split emergency cash reserves and short-term capital allocations across rolling maturities. Allocating cash into 4-week, 8-week, and 13-week Treasury bills creates a continuous cycle of maturing liquidity, allowing investors to continuously reinvest capital at prevailing market yields while maintaining immediate access to emergency funds.

Tax efficiency represents a critical dimension of high-yield cash optimization. For high-earning individuals residing in states with substantial local income taxes, direct holdings in short-term U.S. Treasury instruments often deliver superior net post-tax yields compared to standard commercial bank HYSAs. Because interest earned on federal Treasury bills is strictly exempt from state and local taxation, investors can retain a larger portion of their compounding interest gains without taking on additional credit or market risk.

Ultimately, personal wealth accumulation in mid-2026 relies on intentional capital deployment. Cash should be managed as a productive asset class that generates consistent, risk-free returns. Regularly auditing account yield terms, automating recurring transfers, and leveraging tax-advantaged fixed-income instruments ensures that personal liquidity remains fully optimized against macroeconomic fluctuations.

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Personal Finance

Algorithmic Wealth Management: Balancing Automated Financial Planning with Human Oversight

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Balancing Automated Financial Planning with Human Oversight

The personal finance industry in July 2026 is experiencing a technological evolution, driven by the wide deployment of next-generation algorithmic wealth management tools. Modern digital financial platforms have expanded far beyond basic automated index investing; today’s robo-advisors utilize real-time tax-loss harvesting, dynamic portfolio rebalancing, and hyper-personalized spending analysis to optimize retail investor outcomes. However, as these digital solutions become ubiquitous, investors face the crucial challenge of balancing automated execution with human strategic judgment.

The core advantage of automated financial planning platforms lies in their ability to remove emotional bias from investment execution. During periods of market volatility or localized sector realignments, automated algorithms systematically rebalance portfolios back to target asset allocations without falling victim to panic selling or speculative enthusiasm. Furthermore, integrated cash-flow monitoring algorithms analyze individual spending patterns in real time, automatically sweeping surplus income into designated retirement or debt-liquidation accounts to accelerate net worth accumulation.

Despite these operational advantages, algorithmic tools have inherent structural limitations when addressing complex, highly personalized financial life events. Decisions involving multi-generational estate planning, highly complex tax strategies, small business exits, or nuanced real estate transactions require contextual human judgment that software models cannot replicate. Relying solely on automated models without periodic human professional review can result in misaligned risk profiles or overlooked tax liabilities during major life transitions.

The optimal approach for personal financial planning in late 2026 is a hybrid advisory model. Individuals should utilize automated platforms for routine asset allocation, continuous tax optimization, and low-cost passive index tracking, while engaging qualified human financial advisors for periodic strategic planning, estate structuring, and qualitative risk evaluations. This dual approach ensures maximum cost efficiency and disciplined execution while retaining essential strategic guidance.

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Personal Finance

High-Yield Optimization: Structuring Personal Cash Reserves in a Sustained Rate Environment

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Structuring Personal Cash Reserves in a Sustained Rate Environment

In the financial environment of mid-2026, personal cash management has re-emerged as a vital component of holistic wealth building. With central bank policy rates holding firm to maintain long-term price stability, yield-bearing instruments such as money market funds, high-yield savings accounts (HYSAs), and short-term Treasury bills continue to offer compounding returns around 4% to 5%. For individual investors, effectively structuring cash reserves requires shifting away from passive bank deposits toward active yield optimization.

A frequent pitfall in personal asset management is leaving substantial liquid capital in traditional checking or low-yield savings accounts, where real returns are continuously eroded by baseline inflation. By implementing a disciplined ‘cash ladder’ strategy—allocating liquid funds across tiered maturities using ultra-short Treasury instruments and FDIC-insured high-yield accounts—individuals can secure maximal yields while retaining immediate liquidity for emergency expenses or tactical investment opportunities.

Simultaneously, investors must evaluate the tax efficiency of their cash holdings based on their tax bracket and geographic location. For high earners situated in states with high local income taxes, direct holdings in short-term U.S. Treasury bills often yield a higher net post-tax return than standard high-yield savings accounts, as Treasury interest is strictly exempt from state and local taxation. Understanding these nuanced tax distinctions allows individuals to capture significant incremental gains without taking on additional market risk.

Ultimately, personal financial health in late 2026 hinges on intentional liquidity management. Cash reserves should not be viewed merely as static emergency funds, but as a dynamic asset class that contributes positively to net worth growth. Regularly auditing yield terms, automating cash transfers, and optimizing for post-tax efficiency ensures that personal capital remains fully productive across all economic conditions.

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