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Spike in UK borrowing costs raises specter of public spending cuts

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Markets realize Britain is stuck in a ‘slow-growth trap,’ former UK business secretary says

The march higher in U.K. government bond yields since the launch of the Labour government’s debut budget plan in October sparked widespread concern last week, as borrowing costs rose to breach numerous decade highs.

The prospect of public spending cuts or further tax rises came into focus as 30-year gilt yields hit their highest level since 1998. Despite initially falling after Labour’s election victory in July, 2-year gilt yields have also climbed back above 4.5%, while the 10-year yield reached levels not seen since 2008.

Waning investor confidence in the U.K. was particularly highlighted by a concurrent fall in sterling, which on Friday hit its lowest level against the U.S. dollar since November 2023.

Borrowing costs are also rising in the euro area and the U.S., and economists point out that and the U.K. is being weighed on by external factors including the return of Donald Trump to the White House and expectations for broadly higher interest rates than previously expected this year.

But the surge in U.K. yields are nonetheless a major headache for the U.K. government, which has pledged to reboot economic growth while ensuring debt declines as a share of the economy within five years. U.K. public sector net debt currently stands at nearly 100% of GDP.

“The rise in gilt yields has a self-reinforcing feedback loop through the U.K.’s debt sustainability, by increasing borrowing costs used for budgeting purposes,” ING Senior European Rates Strategist Michiel Tukker said in a Friday note.

Tukker cited analysis by the independent Office of Budget Responsibility which indicates that the recent rise in yields — if sustained — would wipe out the government’s estimated headroom of £9.9 billion ($12.1 billion) for meeting its self-declared fiscal rules. As well as a goal of moving toward a decline in the U.K.’s debt to GDP ratio on a longer timeframe, those rules commit Labour to covering day-to-day government spending with revenues.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank said Friday there is a “knife edge,” chance of the U.K. achieving the latter fiscal rule, but that Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could “get lucky.”

She otherwise faces an “unenviable set of options,” said IFS Associate Director Ben Zaranko, including bringing forward upcoming changes to how debt is calculated to free up more headroom; paring back current spending plans; announcing more tax rises, which could be conditional on changes within the coming years; or doing nothing and breaking her rule.

Economists Ruth Gregory and Hubert de Barochez at research group Capital Economics also said U.K. gilts may be trapped in a “vicious circle,” in which “the rise in U.K. yields puts a strain on public finances, therefore calling for an even bigger tightening of fiscal policy, but in turn putting additional strain on the economy.”

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Bank of America Global Research strategists said Friday that it was unlikely Labour would breach its rules, and would instead announce further fiscal consolidation — measures to reduce public debt, generally public spending cuts or tax hikes — in the spring or earlier.

That would potentially be through spending cuts, they added, coming off the back of the £40 billion in tax hikes that Labour announced in October.

CNBC has contacted the Treasury for comment.

UK in ‘slow growth trap’ — but not a mini-budget crisis

Bank of England in the City of London on 6th November 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district CBD of London. The City of London is widely referred to simply as the City is also colloquially known as the Square Mile. (photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images)

Britain’s economy flatlined in the third quarter, revised figures show

Cable also downplayed comparisons with the U.K. mini-budget crisis in 2022, when then-Prime Minister Liz Truss’s announcement of sweeping tax cuts triggered massive volatility in the bond market.

“The Truss moment was a prime minister just taking a reckless leap into the dark with a big increase in the budget deficit on the assumption this will somehow trigger economic growth. Well, that clearly isn’t what’s happened this time. The argument is about whether they’ve done enough tightening and whether they’ve done it in the right way, but it’s a different kind of problem,” Cable told CNBC.

That sentiment was broadly reflected in wider analysis. Bank of America strategists called comparisons with the mini-budget “overblown,” noting that the bar for the Bank of England to intervene in the gilt market, as it did at the time, was high.

Capital Economics said last week’s higher gilt yields were an economic headwind but not a crisis, with smaller and slower moves than after the mini-budget; while David Brooks, head of policy at consultancy Broadstone, said there did not appear to be any “systemic issues at play” in the liability-driven investment (LDI) funds which were the biggest concern back in 2022.

Economics

Job openings showed surprising increase to 7.4 million in April

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JOLTS beats estimates, posts best number since February

Employers increased job openings more than expected in April while hiring and layoffs also both rose, according to a report Tuesday that showed a relatively steady labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed available jobs totaled nearly 7.4 million, an increase of 191,000 from March and higher than the 7.1 million consensus forecast by economists surveyed by FactSet. On an annual basis, the level was off 228,000, or about 3%.

The ratio of available jobs to unemployed workers was down close to 1.03 to 1 for the month, close to the March level.

Hiring also increased for the month, rising by 169,000 to 5.6 million, while layoffs fell by 196,000 to 1.79 million.

Quits, an indicator of worker confidence in their ability to find another job, edged lower, falling by 150,000 to 3.2 million.

“The labor market is returning to more normal levels despite the uncertainty within the macro outlook,” wrote Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Research. “Underlying patterns in hirings and firings suggest the labor market is holding steady.”

In other economic news Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported that new orders for manufactured goods fell more than expected in April. Orders fell 3.7% on the month, more than the 3.3% Dow Jones forecast and indicative of declining demand after swelling 3.4% in March as businesses sought to get ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

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Euro zone inflation, May 2025

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Shoppers buy fresh vegetables, fruit, and herbs at an outdoor produce market under green-striped canopies in Regensburg, Upper Palatinate, Bavaria, Germany, on April 19, 2025.

Michael Nguyen/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Euro zone inflation fell below the European Central Bank’s 2% target in May, hitting a cooler-than-expected 1.9% as the services print eased sharply, flash data from statistics agency Eurostat showed Tuesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the May reading to come in at 2%, compared to the previous month’s 2.2% figure.

The closely watched services inflation print cooled sharply, amounting to 3.2% last month, compared to the previous 4% reading. So-called core inflation, which excludes energy, food, tobacco and alcohol prices, also eased, falling from 2.7% in April to 2.3% in May.

“May’s steep decline in services inflation, to its lowest level in more than three years, confirms that the previous month’s jump was just an Easter-related blip and that the downward trend in services inflation remains on track,” Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy chief euro zone economist at Capital Economics said in a note.

Inflation has been moving back towards the 2% mark throughout 2025 amid uncertainty for the euro zone economy.

The latest figures will be considered by the European Central Bank as it prepares to make its next interest rate decision later this week. Markets were last pricing in an around 95% chance of interest rates being cut by a further 25-basis-points on Thursday.

Back in April, the central bank took its key rate, the deposit facility rate, to 2.25% — nearly half of the high of 4% notched in the middle of 2023.

But the global economic outlook remains muddied. U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist tariff plans have been casting shadows over the global economic outlook, with his so-called “reciprocal” duties — which are also set to affect the European Union — widely seen as harmful to economic growth. Their immediate potential impact on inflation is less clear, with central bank policymakers and analysts noting that it could depend on any potential countermeasures.

Despite the transatlantic tumult, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in its latest Economic Outlook report out on Tuesday said it was expecting the euro area to expand by 1% in 2025, unchanged from its previous forecast. Euro area inflation is meanwhile projected to come in at 2.2% this year, also in line with the March report.

Euro country bond yields were last lower after the fresh inflation data, with the German 10-year bond yield falling by over two basis points to 2.499%, while the yield on the French 10-year bond was last down by more than one basis point to 3.169%.

The euro was meanwhile last around 0.3% lower against the dollar.

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U.S. growth forecast cut further by OECD as Trump tariffs sour outlook

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Old Navy and Gap retail stores are seen as people walk through Times Square in New York City on April 9, 2025.

Angela Weiss | Afp | Getty Images

Economic growth forecasts for the U.S. and globally were cut further by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development as President Donald Trump’s tariff turmoil weighs on expectations.

The U.S. growth outlook was downwardly revised to just 1.6% this year and 1.5% in 2026. In March, the OECD was still expecting a 2.2% expansion in 2025.

The fallout from Trump’s tariff policy, elevated economic policy uncertainty, a slowdown of net immigration and a smaller federal workforce were cited as reasons for the latest downgrade.

Global growth, meanwhile, is also expected to be lower than previously forecast, with the OECD saying that “the slowdown is concentrated in the United States, Canada and Mexico,” while other economies are projected to see smaller downward revisions.

“Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% this year and in 2026 … on the technical assumption that tariff rates as of mid-May are sustained despite ongoing legal challenges,” the OECD said.

It had previously forecast global growth of 3.1% this year and 3% in 2026.

“The global outlook is becoming increasingly challenging,” the report said. “Substantial increases in barriers to trade, tighter financial conditions, weaker business and consumer confidence and heightened policy uncertainty will all have marked adverse effects on growth prospects if they persist.”

Frequent changes regarding tariffs have continued in recent weeks, leading to uncertainty in global markets and economies. Some of the most recent developments include Trump’s reciprocal, country-specific levies being struck down by the U.S. Court of International Trade, before then being reinstated by an appeals court, as well as Trump saying he would double steel duties to 50%.

The OECD adjusted its inflation forecast, saying “higher trade costs, especially in countries raising tariffs, will also push up inflation, although their impact will be offset partially by weaker commodity prices.”

The impact of tariffs on inflation has been hotly debated, with many central bank policymakers and global analysts suggesting it remains unclear how the levies will impact prices, and that much depends on factors like potential countermeasures.

The OECD’s inflation outlook shows a notable difference between the U.S. and some of the world’s other major economies. For instance, while G20 countries are now expected to record 3.6% inflation in 2025 — down from 3.8% in March’s estimate — the projection for the U.S. has risen to 3.2%, up from a previous 2.8%.

U.S. inflation could even be closing in on 4% toward the end of 2025, the OECD said.

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