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Stanley Druckenmiller says ‘animal spirits’ are back in markets because of Trump with CEOs ‘giddy’

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Stanley Druckenmiller says 'animal spirits' are back in markets because of Trump with CEOs 'giddy'

Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller believes Donald Trump’s re-election renewed a jolt of speculative enthusiasm in the markets and surging optimism within businesses.

“I’ve been doing this for 49 years, and we’re probably going from the most anti-business administration to the opposite,” Druckenmiller said on CNBC Monday. “We do a lot of talking to CEOs and companies on the ground. And I’d say CEOs are somewhere between relieved and giddy. So we’re a believer in animal spirits.”

While the notable investor, who now runs Duquesne Family Office, is bullish on the economy in the near-term, he remains somewhat cautious on the stock market because of elevated bond yields. He revealed that he is holding onto his short against Treasurys, effectively betting that bond prices will fall and yields will rise.

“In terms of the markets, I would say it’s complicated,” Druckenmiller said. “You’re going to have this push of a strong economy versus bond yields rising in response to that strong economy, and that kind of makes me not have a strong opinion one way or the other.”

The S&P 500 surged nearly 6% in November on Trump’s victory, bringing the benchmark’s 2024 gains to 23.3%. Trump’s promised tax cuts and deregulation have boosted risk assets dramatically, especially bank and energy stocks, as well as bitcoin, which just hit another record high Monday.

Druckenmiller, 71, said he would focus on individual stocks, not worrying about the broader market. The investor noted he’s bullish on companies where artificial intelligence is going to lower their costs and drive productivity. He didn’t reveal which AI stocks he’s betting on after selling out of Nvidia and Microsoft.

‘Risks are overblown’

As for concerns that Trump’s punitive tariffs would spoil the market rally and spike inflation, Druckenmiller believes that the revenue generated by duties could lessen the pressing fiscal problem in the country.

“We have a fiscal problem, we need revenues,” Druckenmiller said. “To me, tariffs are simply a consumption tax that foreigners pay for some of it. Now the risk is retaliation, but as long as we stay in the 10% range, …I think the risks are overblown relative to the rewards, the rewards on high.”

Stanley Druckenmiller: Tariffs are simply a consumption tax that foreigners pay for some of it

Trump’s trade memorandum to be issued Monday would not impose tariffs yet. His camp has been reportedly discussing a schedule of graduated tariffs increasing by about 2% to 5% a month on trading partners.

Druckenmiller once managed George Soros’ Quantum Fund and shot to fame after helping make a $10 billion bet against the British pound in 1992. He later oversaw $12 billion as president of Duquesne Capital Management before closing his firm in 2010. 

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China’s April retail sales growth of 5.1% misses expectations as consumption remains a worry

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Citizens are shopping at a supermarket in Nanjing, East China’s Jiangsu province, on March 9, 2024. 

Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

China’s retail sales growth slowed in April, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Monday, signaling that consumption remains a worry for the world’s second-largest economy.

Retail sales rose 5.1% from a year earlier in April, missing analysts’ estimates of 5.5% growth, according to a Reuters poll. Sales had grown by 5.9% in the previous month.

Industrial output grew 6.1% year on year in April, stronger than analysts’ expectations for a 5.5% rise, while slowing down from the 7.7% jump in March.

Fixed-asset investment for the first four months this year, which includes property and infrastructure investment, expanded 4.0%, slightly lower than analysts’ expectations for a 4.2% growth in a Reuters poll.

The drag from real estate worsened within fixed asset investment, falling 10.3% for the year as of April.

The urban survey-based unemployment rate in April eased to 5.1% from 5.2% in March.

The data came against the backdrop of trade tensions between China and the U.S.

U.S. President Donald Trump placed tariffs of 145% on imports from China that came into effect in April. Beijing retaliated with tariffs in kind, with 125% levies on American imports.

Trade-war fears have receded after a meeting of U.S. and Chinese trade representatives in Switzerland earlier this month led to a lower set of levies between the world’s two largest economies.

Beijing and Washington agreed to roll back most of the tariffs imposed on each other’s goods for 90 days, allowing some room for further negotiation to reach a more lasting deal.

That prompted a slew of global investment banks to raise their forecasts for China’s economic growth this year while paring back expectations for more proactive stimulus as Beijing strives to reach its growth target of around 5%.

This is breaking news. Please check back later for updates.

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Scott Bessent calls Moody’s a ‘lagging indicator’ after U.S. credit downgrade

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” that Moody’s Ratings were a “lagging indicator” after the group downgraded the U.S.’ credit rating by a notch from the highest level.

“I think that Moody’s is a lagging indicator,” Bessent said Sunday. “I think that’s what everyone thinks of credit agencies.”

Moody’s said last week that the downgrade from Aaa to Aa1 “reflects the increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns.”

The treasury secretary asserted that the downgrade was related to the Biden administration’s spending policies, which that administration had touted as investments in priorities, including combatting climate change and increasing health care coverage.

“Just like Sean Duffy said with our air traffic control system, we didn’t get here in the past 100 days,” Bessent continued, referring to the transportation secretary. “It’s the Biden administration and the spending that we have seen over the past four years.”

The U.S. has $36.22 trillion in national debt, according to the Treasury Department. It began growing steadily in the 1980s and continued increasing during both President Donald Trump’s first term and former President Joe Biden’s administration.

Bessent also told moderator Kristen Welker that he spoke on the phone with the CEO of Walmart, Doug McMillon, who the treasury secretary said told him the retail giant would “eat some of the tariffs, just as they did in ’18, ’19 and ’20.”

Walmart CFO John David Rainey previously told CNBC that Walmart would absorb some higher costs related to tariffs. The CFO had also told CNBC separately that he was “concerned” consumers would “start seeing higher prices,” pointing to tariffs.

Trump said in a post to Truth Social last week that Walmart should “eat the tariffs.” Walmart responded, saying the company has “always worked to keep our prices as low as possible and we won’t stop.”

“We’ll keep prices as low as we can for as long as we can given the reality of small retail margins,” the statement continued.

When asked about his conversation, Bessent denied he applied any pressure on Walmart to “eat the tariffs,” noting that he and the CEO “have a very good relationship.”

“I just wanted to hear it from him, rather than second-, third-hand from the press,” Bessent said.

McMillon had said on Walmart’s earnings call that tariffs have put pressure on prices. Bessent argued that companies “have to give the worst case scenario” on the calls.

The White House has said that countries are approaching the administration to negotiate over tariffs. The administration has also announced trade agreements with the United Kingdom and China. 

Bessent said on Sunday that he thinks countries that do not negotiate in good faith would see duties return to the rates announced the day the administration unveiled across-the-board tariffs.

“The negotiating leverage that President Trump is talking about here is if you don’t want to negotiate, then it will spring back to the April 2 level,” Bessent said.

Bessent was also asked about Trump saying the administration would accept a luxury jet from Qatar to be used as Air Force One, infuriating Democrats and drawing criticism from some Republicans as well. 

The treasury secretary called questions about the $400 million gift an “off ramp for many in the media not to acknowledge what an incredible trip this was,” referring to investment commitments the president received during his trip last week to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

“If we go back to your initial question on the Moody’s downgrade, who cares? Qatar doesn’t. Saudi doesn’t. UAE doesn’t,” he said. “They’re all pushing money in.”

When asked for his response to those who argue that the jet sends a message that countries can curry favor with the U.S. by sending gifts, Bessent said that “the gifts are to the American people,” pointing to investment agreements that were unveiled during Trump’s Middle East trip. 

Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., criticized Bessent’s comments about the credit downgrade, saying in a separate interview on “Meet the Press.”

“I heard the treasury secretary say that, ‘Who cares about the downgrading of our credit rating from Moody’s?’ That is a big deal,” Murphy said.

“That means that we are likely headed for a recession. That probably means higher interest rates for anybody out there who is trying to start a business or to buy a home,” he continued. “These guys are running the economy recklessly because all they care about is the health of the Mar-a-Lago billionaire class.”

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Pilotless planes are taking flight in China. Bank of America says it's time to buy

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While startups around the world have tried to build vehicles that can fly without a pilot, only one is certified to carry people — in China.

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