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Stock market posts third biggest gain in post-WWII history on Trump’s tariff about-face

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Trader work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

Wednesday’s jaw-dropping stock-market rally on President Donald Trump’s surprising tariff reversal is one for the history books.

The S&P 500 skyrocketed 9.52% in a kneejerk reaction to Trump’s announcement to put a 90-day pause on some of the lofty ‘reciprocal’ tariffs. The one-day gain ranks as the third biggest since World War II for the main stock market benchmark, according to FactSet.

The Nasdaq Composite jumped 12.16%, notching its largest one-day jump since January 2001 and second-best day ever. 

“This is the pivotal moment we’ve been waiting for,” said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. “The immediate market reaction has been overwhelmingly positive, as investors interpret this as a step toward much-needed clarity.”

The market was a coiled spring after a brutal four-day stretch that briefly pushed the S&P 500 into bear-market territory. Over the course of the previous four trading sessions, the S&P 500 suffered a 12% loss, a decline not seen since the pandemic. The Dow lost more than 4,500 points during the four-day stretch, while the Nasdaq was down more than 13%.

While stocks managed to recoup much of the losses, investors are not completely out of the woods as Trump vows to reorient global trade. The president said more than 75 countries contacted U.S. officials to negotiate after he unveiled his new tariffs last week.

“It’s still too early to signal an all clear,” said Dave Sekera, Morningstar’s chief U.S. market strategist. “Trade negotiations have yet to start and once they do, there will be positive and negative headlines as each party positions itself to extract the maximum amount of concessions possible.”

 

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DIS, SMCI, NVO, UBER and more

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Banks keep high rates inspired by now-dead CFPB rule

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The New York Stock Exchange is seen during morning trading on July 31, 2024 in New York City. 

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Last year, banks quickly raised interest rates to record levels and added new monthly fees on credit cards when a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau rule threatened a key revenue source for the industry.

Now, they’re far more reluctant to reverse those steps, even after bank trade groups succeeded in killing the CFPB rule in federal court last month.

Synchrony and Bread Financial, two of the biggest players in the business of issuing branded credit cards for the likes of Amazon, Lowe’s and Wayfair, are keeping the higher rates in place, executives said in recent conference calls.

“We feel pretty comfortable that the rule has been vacated,” Synchrony CEO Brian Doubles said on April 22. “With that said, we don’t currently have plans to roll anything back in terms of the changes that we made.”

His counterpart at Bread, CEO Ralph Andretta, echoed that sentiment, “At this point, we’re not intending to roll back those changes, and we’ve talked to the partners about that.”

The CEOs celebrated the end of a proposed CFPB regulation that was meant to limit what Americans would pay in credit card late fees, an effort that the industry called a misguided and unlawful example of regulatory overreach. Under previous Director Rohit Chopra, the CFPB estimated that its rule would save families $10 billion annually. Instead, it inadvertently saddled borrowers with higher rates and fees for receiving paper statements as credit card companies sought to offset the expected revenue hit.

Retail cards hit a record high average interest rate of 30.5% last year, according to a Bankrate survey, and rates have stayed close to those levels this year.

“The companies have made a windfall,” said David Silberman, a veteran banking attorney who lectures at Yale Law School. “They didn’t think they needed this revenue before except for [the CFPB rule], and they’re now keeping it, which is coming directly out of the consumer’s pocket.”

Synchrony and Bread both easily topped expectations for first-quarter profit, and analysts covering the companies have raised estimates for what they will earn this year, despite concerns about a looming U.S. economic slowdown.

Retailer lifeline

While store cards occupy a relatively small corner of the overall credit card universe, Americans who are struggling financially are more likely to rely on them, and they are a crucial profit generator for popular American retailers.

There were more than 160 million open retail card accounts last year, the CFPB said in a report from December that highlighted risks to users of the high-interest cards.

More than half of the 100 biggest U.S. retailers offer store cards, and brands including Nordstrom and Macy’s relied on them to generate roughly 8% of gross profits in recent years, the CFPB said.

Banks may be taking advantage of the fact that some users of retail cards don’t have the credit profiles to qualify for general-purpose cards from JPMorgan Chase or American Express, for example, said senior Bankrate analyst Ted Rossman.

Nearly half of all retail card applications are submitted by people with subprime or no credit scores, and the card companies behind them approve applications at a higher rate than for general-purpose cards, the CFPB said.

“Companies like Bread or Synchrony, they rely a lot more on people who carry balances or who pay late fees,” Rossman said.

Rates on retail cards have fallen by less than 1% on average since hitting their 2024 peak, and they are typically about 10 percentage points higher than the rates for general-purpose cards, Rossman said.

That means it’s unlikely that other large players in the retail card sector, including Citigroup and Barclays, have rolled back their rate increases in the wake of the CFPB rule’s demise. The most recent published APR on the Macy’s card, issued by Citigroup, is 33.49%, for instance.

Citigroup and Barclays representatives declined to comment for this article.

Debt spirals

Synchrony’s CEO gave some clues as to why banks aren’t eager to roll back the hikes: borrowers either didn’t seem to notice the higher rates, or didn’t feel like they had a choice.

Retail cards are typically advertised online or at the checkout of brick-and-mortar retailers, and often lure users with promotional discounts or rewards points.

“We didn’t see a big reduction in accounts or spend related to the actions” they took last year, Doubles told analysts. “We did a lot of test and control around that.”

Synchrony will discuss future possible changes to its card program with its brand partners, according to a spokeswoman for the Stamford, Connecticut-based bank. That could include bumping up promotional offers at specific retailers, Doubles said during the April conference call.

Brian Doubles, Synchrony President

Synchrony Financial

“Our goal remains to provide access to financial solutions that provide flexibility, utility, and meaningful value to the diverse range of customers, partners, providers, and small and midsized businesses we serve,” Synchrony said in a statement.

A Bread spokesperson declined to comment for this article.

Alaina Fingal, a New Orleans-based financial coach, said she often advises people who’ve been trapped in a debt spiral from using retail credit cards. Some have to take on side gigs, like driving for Uber Eats, to work down the balances, she said.

“They do not understand the terms, and there are a lot of promotional offers that may have deferred interest clauses that are in there,” Fingal said. “It’s extremely predatory.”

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