As China’s biggest shopping festival of the year gets underway, analysts are starting to favor Chinese logistics companies as a way to play the online shopping trend. Their reasoning? The delivery companies are seeing package volume grow, regardless of how much consumers spend on each purchase. “Express parcel volume growth has been outperforming online [gross merchandise value] growth since 2019, driven by the continued drop in ticket size amid a consumption downgrade,” JPMorgan analysts said in an Oct. 30 report. The JPMorgan report initiated coverage of U.S.-listed ZTO Express , which the analysts said is China’s largest express parcel player with more than 20% of the market. ZTO, also listed in Hong Kong, is more profitable than competitors YTO Express Group, STO Express Co., Yunda Holding Co. and J & T Global Express Ltd., the report said. JPMorgan has a price target of $30 on ZTO’s U.S. shares, nearly 30% above where the stock closed Friday. ZTO YTD mountain ZTO Express shares in the U.S. in 2024. Alibaba and JD.com kicked off their annual Singles Day shopping promotions on Oct. 14 this year, more than a week earlier than in 2023. The festival, akin to Black Friday in the U.S., centers on Nov. 11. The e-commerce companies have stopped releasing Singles Day GMV figures in recent years as consumer spending in China has grown more restrained. At the same time, China’s internet tech giants, once scrutinized for alleged monopolistic behavior, this year sought to lower the temperature by reducing competitive barriers and allow a rival’s mobile payment system onto their platforms. China’s online shopping landscape has created a large express delivery market in which logistics companies that use technology well can benefit from economies of scale, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a report last month. The Morgan Stanley study ranked Chinese logistics players on an “AI Matrix” that tries to measure the willingness and ability to invest in artificial intelligence, along with the size and scale of the companies’ proprietary data. Of three companies that stood out, ZTO also emerged as Morgan Stanley’s top pick in China’s logistics industry. “We believe in a winner-takes-all express delivery market, ZTO will continue to benefit from its larger scale, more advanced infrastructure and devotion to tech innovation,” the Morgan Stanley analysts said. Morgan Stanley has a price target of $27.50 on ZTO shares. Analysts also see opportunities for logistics players with Chinese ties to expand globally as PDD ‘s Temu and ByteDance’s TikTok take on international markets. “TikTok Shop’s robust expansion in [Southeast Asia] should bolster J & T’s dominance in the express delivery sector,” Nomura analysts said in an Oct. 25 report, initiating coverage of Hong Kong-listed J & T Global Express . 1519-HK YTD mountain J & T Global Express Hong Kong-listed shares in 2024. The company was founded in Southeast Asia by Jet Li, who previously oversaw business in the region for Chinese smartphone company Oppo. Li is also executive director, CEO and chairman of J & T. J & T held a “competitive 11% market share in China” in the first half of this year — and the leading position in Southeast Asia with 27.4% of the market, the Nomura analysts said. “Given sizeable parcel volumes from the China express delivery market, the profitability improvement in the China market could become a driver of J & T’s net profit growth.” Nomura rates the stock a buy, with a price target of 7.30 Hong Kong dollars (94 cents). That’s more than 16% above where shares closed Friday. Morgan Stanley is less bullish, rating J & T equal-weight while citing competitive risks in China and potential challenges in Southeast Asia. “Cuts on overseas profitability outlook has weakened our investment thesis,” the Morgan Stanley analysts said. They have a price target of 7.40 Hong Kong dollars on J & T. —CNBC”s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Investors may want to consider adding exposure to the world’s second-largest emerging market.
According to EMQQ Global founder Kevin Carter, India’s technology sector is extremely attractive right now.
“It’s the tip of the spear of growth [in e-commerce] … not just in emerging markets, but on the planet,” Carter told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.
His firm is behind the INQQ The India Internet ETF, which was launched in 2022. The India Internet ETF is up almost 21% so far this year, as of Friday’s close.
‘DoorDash of India’
One of Carter’s top plays is Zomato, which he calls “the DoorDash of India.” Zomato stock is up 128% this year.
“One of the reasons Zomato has done so well this year is because the quick commerce business blanket has exceeded expectations,” Carter said. “It now looks like it’s going to be the biggest business at Zomato.”
Carter noted his bullishness comes from a population that is just starting to go online.
“They’re getting their first-ever computer today basically,” he said, “You’re giving billions of people super computers in their pocket internet access.”
“I think the best case scenario is we’re going to continue to see mortgage rates hover around six and a half to 7%,” said Jordan Jackson, a global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “So unfortunately for those homeowners who are looking for a bit of a reprieve on the mortgage rate side, that may not come to fruition,” Jordan said in an interview with CNBC.
Mortgage rates can be influenced by Fed policy. But the rates are more closely tied to long-term borrowing rates for government debt. The 10-year Treasury note yield has been increasing in recent months as investors consider more expansionary fiscal policies that may come from Washington in 2025. This, combined with signals sent from the market for mortgage-backed securities, determine the rates issued within new mortgages.
Economists at Fannie Mae say the Fed’s management of its mortgage-backed securities portfolio may contribute to today’s mortgage rates.
In the pandemic, the Fed bought huge amounts of assets, including mortgage-backed securities, to adjust demand and supply dynamics within the bond market. Economists also refer to the technique as “quantitative easing.”
Quantitative easing can reduce the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields, which leads to cheaper loan terms for home buyers. It can also provide opportunities for owners looking to refinance their mortgages. The Fed’s use of this technique in the pandemic brought mortgages rates to record lows in 2021.
“They were extra aggressive in 2021 with buying mortgage-backed securities. So, the [quantitative easing] was probably ill-advised at the time.” said Matthew Graham, COO of Mortgage News Daily.
In 2022, the Federal Reserve kicked off plans to reduce the balance of its holdings, primarily by allowing those assets to mature and “roll-off” of its balance sheet. This process is known as “quantitative tightening,” and it may add upward pressure on the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields.
“I think that’s one of the reasons the mortgage rates are still going in the wrong direction from the Federal Reserve’s standpoint,” said George Calhoun, director of the Hanlon Financial Systems Center at Stevens Institute of Technology.
Jason Wilk, the CEO of digital banking service Dave, remembers the absolute low point in his brief career as head of a publicly-traded firm.
It was June 2023, and shares of his company had recently dipped below $5 apiece. Desperate to keep Dave afloat, Wilk found himself at a Los Angeles conference for micro-cap stocks, where he pitched investors on tiny $5,000 stakes in his firm.
“I’m not going to lie, this was probably the hardest time of my life,” Wilk told CNBC. “To go from being a $5 billion company to $50 million in 12 months, it was so freaking hard.”
But in the months that followed, Dave turned profitable and consistently topped Wall Street analyst expectations for revenue and profit. Now, Wilk’s company is the top gainer for 2024 among U.S. financial stocks, with a 934% year-to-date surge through Thursday.
The fintech firm, which makes money by extending small loans to cash-strapped Americans, is emblematic of a larger shift that’s still in its early stages, according to JMP Securities analyst Devin Ryan.
Investors had dumped high-flying fintech companies in 2022 as a wave of unprofitable firms like Dave went public via special purpose acquisition companies. The environment turned suddenly, from rewarding growth at any cost to deep skepticism of how money-losing firms would navigate rising interest rates as the Federal Reserve battled inflation.
Now, with the Fed easing rates, investors have rushed back into financial firms of all sizes, including alternative asset managers like KKR and credit card companies like American Express, the top performers among financial stocks this year with market caps of at least $100 billion and $200 billion, respectively.
Big investment banks including Goldman Sachs, the top gainer among the six largest U.S. banks, have also surged this year on hope for a rebound in Wall Street deals activity.
Dave, a fintech firm taking on big banks like JPMorgan Chase, is a standout stock this year.
But it’s fintech firms like Dave and Robinhood, the commission-free trading app, that are the most promising heading into next year, Ryan said.
Robinhood, whose shares have surged 190% this year, is the top gainer among financial firms with a market cap of at least $10 billion.
“Both Dave and Robinhood went from losing money to being incredibly profitable firms,” Ryan said. “They’ve gotten their house in order by growing their revenues at an accelerating rate while managing expenses at the same time.”
While Ryan views valuations for investment banks and alternative asset manages as approaching “stretched” levels, he said that “fintechs still have a long way to run; they are early in their journey.”
Financials broadly had already begun benefitting from the Fed easing cycle when the election victory of Donald Trump last month intensified interest in the sector. Investors expect Trump will ease regulation and allow for more innovation with government appointments including ex-PayPal executive and Silicon Valley investor David Sacks as AI and crypto czar.
Those expectations have boosted the shares of entrenched players like JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, but have had a greater impact on potential disruptors like Dave that could see even more upside from a looser regulatory environment.
Gas & groceries
Dave has built a niche among Americans underserved by traditional banks by offering fee-free checking and savings accounts.
It makes money mostly by extending small loans of around $180 each to help users “pay for gas and groceries” until their next paycheck, according to Wilk; Dave makes roughly $9 per loan on average.
Customers come out ahead by avoiding more expensive forms of credit from other institutions, including $35 overdraft fees charged by banks, he said. Dave, which is not a bank, but partners with one, does not charge late fees or interest on cash advances.
The company also offers a debit card, and interchange fees from transactions made by Dave customers will make up an increasing share of revenue, Wilk said.
While the fintech firm faces far less skepticism now than it did in mid-2023— of the seven analysts who track it, all rate the stock a “buy,” according to Factset — Wilk said the company still has more to prove.
“Our business is so much better now than we went public, but it’s still priced 60% below the IPO price,” he said. “Hopefully we can claw our way back.”