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Tax collections lift Treasury’s cash pile by most since 2022

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Tax collections are confirming Wall Street forecasts that the U.S. government will not exhaust its borrowing capacity until later this year.

The U.S. Treasury’s cash balance climbed again on Wednesday to reach a total of $639 billion — after soaring some $185 billion the day prior, the most in three years — amid inflows around the April 15 tax deadline.

“Individual income tax receipts remained stronger than we expected,” wrote Lou Crandall at Wrightson ICAP in a note to clients Thursday. That reinforces “our view that the X-date would be a late-third-quarter event even under the traditional playbook,” Crandall added, referring to the date at which the Treasury breaches the debt limit.

Much of the tax collection increase has been driven by a surge in individual, non-withheld taxes paid electronically, which are now trending well above last year’s levels.

“In total, non-withheld tax receipts have come in strong this year so far, despite some concerns over staffing cuts at the IRS, fraud, and delayed filings in disaster-affected areas,” wrote JPMorgan strategists led by Jay Barry in a note. Barry reiterates an X-date of Aug. 1, giving Congress some time to agree on new debt-ceiling legislation. 

The final tally matters for a number of reasons. In the near-term, the amount of cash flowing out of the money markets to pay Uncle Sam can impact funding costs. Higher tax receipts means more liquidity is drained from the overall financial system, likely pushing up the cost of borrowing in the overnight repurchase market. 

If more money is flowing out of bank reserves and money markets that carries implications for the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening program. The central bank eased the pace of runoffs to $5 billion per month this April. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated this week that the move was, at least in part, precautionary given the extent to which the debt ceiling may impede policymakers’ view into overall bank reserves. 

Here are the key metrics to watch in the funding markets in the weeks ahead. 

Bank reserves

Fed officials and investors are keeping a keen eye on the amount of cash banks park at the central bank, gauging what level is enough to maintain liquidity and avert too much stress in the plumbing that underpins the financial markets. As reserves become more scarce, a level primary dealers estimate to be around $3 trillion, the U.S. central bank will likely have to halt its balance sheet unwind.  

Bank reserves totaled $3.3 trillion in the week through April 16 from $3.5 trillion the prior week, Fed data show. That’s above the level they were when the central bank started unwinding its balance sheet almost three years ago. 

Money-market fund assets

In the week including the April 15 tax deadline, money-market fund assets fell by some $125 billion to $6.88 trillion, according to ICI data through April 16. Annual tax payments typically tend to mean hundreds of billions are pulled out of the banking system, although some taxes are paid with cash held in money-market funds.

Global market volatility spurred by the Trump administration’s tariffs has renewed focus on money-market funds, which are considered attractive investment vehicles during periods of uncertainty as they command higher yields and are perceived as a haven.

Treasury’s cash balance

Whether the U.S. government can meet its fiscal obligations and pay its debts ultimately comes down to whether it has the cash. That balance is affected by daily inflows and outflows. 

The Treasury’s cash balance saw its largest one-day increase in three years on April 15, Treasury figures show. It further rose to some $639 billion the day after, according to data released Thursday. Cumulatively, electronically-filed, non-withheld individual income taxes have totaled $268 billion so far in April — that compares to $197 billion in 2024.

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Accounting

In the blogs: Higher questions

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Valuations this year; handling interviewees; AI and accounting ed.; and other highlights from our favorite tax bloggers.

Higher questions

Haunting of the Hill House

  • Eide Bailly (https://www.eidebailly.com/taxblog): The House Ways and Means Committee planned to begin to publicly debate and amend tax legislation on May 13, with the ultimate goal to produce the “one big, beautiful” bill to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: “This is the stage where seemingly dead and buried ideas mysteriously come back to life to haunt the proceedings.” 
  • Wiss (https://wiss.com/insights/read/): Key highlights of the proposed beauty.
  • Current Federal Tax Developments (https://www.currentfederaltaxdevelopments.com/): And a bulleted summary.
  • Tax Vox (https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox): If Congress expands the Child Tax Credit with TCJA extension, who might benefit and what might it cost?
  • Tax Foundation (www.taxfoundation.org/blog): Policymakers will also decide the fate of the SALT cap. Debate rages about making the cap more generous, along with possible limits on pass-through workarounds and SALT deductions  by corporations. While capping business SALT could raise additional revenue, it would risk slowing economic growth.

Soft skills

Rational decisions

Tidying up

  • Boyum & Barenscheer (https://www.myboyum.com/blog/): Should you vacuum the meeting room? How many times should you talk with a candidate? Keys — some often overlooked — to effective interviewing.
  • The National Association of Tax Professionals (https://blog.natptax.com/): A WISP is the written information security plan that verifies how your firm protects taxpayer information. You can’t ignore them anymore, and here’s how to build a compliant one.
  • Taxing Subjects (https://www.drakesoftware.com/blog): An outstanding guide to SEO for accounting firms. 
  • AICPA & CIMA Insights (https://www.aicpa-cima.com/blog): Where does AI fit into accounting education? Everywhere.

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Accounting

House committee marks up tax reconciliation bill

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The House Ways and Means Committee held a hearing Tuesday to mark up the so-called “one, big beautiful bill” extending the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act while adding other tax breaks for tip income, overtime pay and Social Security income and eliminating tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act for renewable energy as well as the Direct File and Free File programs.

“Today, this Committee will move forward on President Trump’s promise of delivering historic tax relief to working families, farmers and small businesses,” said committee chair Jason Smith, R-Missouri, in his opening statement. “The One Big Beautiful Bill is the key to making America great again. This moment has been years in the making. While Democrats were defending IRS audits on the middle class and tax carveouts for the wealthy, Republicans on this Committee got on the road, to hear from real Americans about how the 2017 tax cuts benefited them. This bill wasn’t drafted by special interests or K Street lobbyists. It was drafted by the American people in communities across the country.”

Democrats blasted the bill. “In 2017, Republicans passed a tax law that was supposed to pay for itself, raise wages, and help working families,” said ranking member Richard Neal, D-Massachusetts. “None of that happened. Instead, it exploded the deficit, worsened inequality, and left everyday Americans behind. Now they want to double down on the same failed playbook. One that rigs the system for billionaires and big corporations while everyone else pays the price.”

Among the provisions, the bill would make the expiring rate and bracket changes of the TCJA permanent and increase the inflation adjustment for all brackets excluding the 37% threshold, according to a summary from the Tax Foundation. The bill would also make the expiring standard deduction levels permanent and temporarily increase the standard deduction by $2,000 for joint filers, $1,500 for head of household filers and $1,000 for all other filers from 2025 through the end of 2028. It would also make the personal exemption elimination permanent, and make the $750,000 limitation and the exclusion of interest on home equity loans for the home mortgage interest deduction permanent. It would also make the state and local tax deduction cap, also known as the SALT cap, permanent at a higher threshold of $30,000, phasing down to $10,000 at a rate of 20% starting at modified adjusted gross income of $200,000 for single filers and $400,000 for joint filers.

Other changes and limitations to itemized deductions would be made permanent, including the limitation on personal casualty losses and wagering losses and termination of miscellaneous itemized deductions, Pease limitation on itemized deductions, and certain moving expenses.

The bill is likely to go through some changes when it goes to the Senate. “Politically, we’ve been talking about the process for the last couple months,” said Mark Baran, managing director at CBIZ’s national tax office. “Congress is finally able to pass a concurrent resolution to unlock the budget reconciliation process.”

“The House and the Senate have completely different instructions on what they’re going to cut and how they’re going to score,” he added. “Some of that’s very controversial, and that needs to be worked out. But now we’re getting into the actual crafting of provisions and legislation.”

According to a summary on the CBIZ site, the bill would make permanent and increase the Section 199A pass-through entity deduction from 20% to 23%, also known as the qualified business income, or QBI, deduction. The bill includes provisions that open the door for pass-through entity owners in specified service industries to use the deduction. It would also extend current deductions for research and experimental expenses through Dec. 31, 2029, and extend 100% bonus depreciation through that same date.

The bill would also allow businesses to include amortization and depreciation when figuring the business interest limitation through Dec. 31, 2029, while making permanent the excess business loss limitation.

In addition, the bill would retroactively terminate the Employee Retention Tax Credit for taxpayers who filed refund claims after Jan. 31, 2024. 

In keeping with Trump campaign promises, the bill would eliminate taxes on tips for employees in certain defined industries where tipping has been a traditional form of compensation. There would be a new $4,000 deduction for seniors that phases out starting at $75,000 of income. The bill would also eliminate taxes on overtime pay.

The bill would give individuals an above-the-line deduction for interest on loans used to purchase American-made cars, but that would be capped at $10,000 with income phaseouts starting at $100,000 (single) and $200,000 (married filing jointly).

The bill would also increase taxes on certain private college investment income up to a maximum of 21% on universities with a student-adjusted endowment above $2 million.

It would also roll back some of the renewable energy provisions from the Inflation Reduction, including a phaseout and restrictions on clean energy facilities starting in 2029, while also limiting or eliminating clean housing energy and vehicle credits. The bill would sunset major IRA clean electricity tax credits, including the clean electricity production tax credit (45Y), clean electricity investment tax credit (48E), and nuclear electricity production tax credit (45U) begin phasing out after 2028 and finish phasing out by the end of 2031; repeal hydrogen production credit (45V) for facilities beginning construction after 2025, according to the Tax Foundation. It would also phase out advanced manufacturing production credit (45X) for wind energy components after 2027, for all other eligible components after 2031. Across several IRA clean energy credits, the bill would repeal transferability after the end of 2027 and further limit credits based on involvement of foreign entities of concern. On the other hand, it would expand the clean fuel production credit (45K), and tighten rules on the 126(m) limitation for executive compensation.

The bill would terminate the current Direct File program at the Internal Revenue Service and establish a public-private partnership between the IRS and private sector tax preparation services to offer free tax filing, replacing both the existing Direct File and Free File programs.  

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Accounting

FASAB mulls accounting impact of federal reorganization

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The Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board is asking for input on emerging accounting issues and questions related to reporting entity reorganizations and abolishments as the federal government endures wide-ranging layoffs and reductions in force, including the elimination of entire agencies by the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency.

“Federal agencies and their functions, from time to time, have been reorganized and abolished,” said FASAB in its request for information and comment

Reorganization refers to a transfer, consolidation, coordination, authorization or abolition of one (or more) agency or agencies or a part of their functions. Abolition is a type of reorganization and refers to the whole or part of an agency that does not have, upon the effective date of the reorganization, any functions.

The Trump administration has recently moved to all but eliminate parts of the federal government such as the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and earlier this month, Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee passed a bill that would transfer the responsibilities of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board to the Securities and Exchange Commission. 

FASAB issues federal financial accounting standards and provides timely guidance. Practitioner responses to the request for information will support its efforts to identify, research and respond to emerging accounting and reporting issues related to reorganization and abolishment activities, such as transfers of assets and liabilities among federal reporting entities. The input will be used to help inform any potential staff recommendations and alternatives for FASAB to consider regarding short- and long-term actions and updates to federal accounting standards and guidance in this area.

The questions include:

  1. Have any recent or ongoing reorganization activities or events affected the scope of functions, assets, liabilities, net position, revenues, and expenses assigned to your reporting entity (or, for auditors, your auditees)? If so, please describe.
  2. What accounting issues have you (or your auditees) encountered (or do you anticipate) in connection with recent or potential reorganization activities and events?
  3. Please describe the sources of standards and guidance that you (or your auditees) are applying to recent, ongoing, or pending reorganization activities and events.
  4. Have you experienced any difficulties or identified gaps in the accounting and disclosure standards for reorganization activities and events? What potential improvements would you recommend, if any?

FASAB is asking for responses by July 15, 2025, but acknowledged that late or follow-up submissions may be necessary given the provisional nature of the request. Responses should be emailed to [email protected] with “RERA RFI response” on the subject line.

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