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The consequences of Donald Trump’s huge fine for fraud

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IT DOES NOT bode well when a judge, before meting out a punishment, tells a defendant that his lack of remorse “borders on pathological”. Sure enough, that dressing-down of Donald Trump preceded an enormous fine in a civil ruling on February 16th. A judge in New York ordered him and his property business to pay $355m (plus an estimated $86m in interest) for cooking the books over several years. Time and again the Trump Organisation inflated asset values to secure better loan terms, the judge found. New York’s attorney-general, who brought the lawsuit, said Mr Trump had “full knowledge of and responsibility for” the scheme.

Mr Trump called the case a “fraud on me” and promised to appeal. He may have to cough up only a portion of the fine while that is pending—how much exactly will be up to the judge. The penalty comes on top of an $88m award owed to E. Jean Carroll, a writer whom Mr Trump sexually assaulted decades ago and then defamed over the past few years. Mr Trump should be able to pay both without having to sell much in the way of assets: last year in a deposition he said he had “substantially” more than $400m in cash on hand. But there is no escaping the fact that he is personally on the hook. Neither fine can be satisfied with campaign funds, which he has used to cover his lawyers’ fees in his four criminal trials. (The first of those, over hush money paid to a porn star, starts next month in New York.)

The ruling from Judge Arthur Engoron was blistering, and followed an 11-week trial that began in October. The Trump Organisation was found to have overvalued assets by between $812m and $2.2bn from 2014 to 2021. Mr Trump’s repeated refusal to admit wrongdoing turned a “venial sin” into something more nefarious, wrote the judge. The former president and his co-defendants—his two eldest sons and two employees—adopted a “‘See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil’ posture that the evidence belies”. Nothing short of a complete overhaul of the business would deter them from future misconduct.

The ruling aims to transform how the Trump Organisation operates. Judge Engoron barred Mr Trump from working as a corporate director in New York for three years. His two eldest sons, who are co-chief executives, were each given a two-year ban. An independent monitor appointed in 2022 to babysit the firm will have her remit expanded for at least three more years. An independent compliance officer will come aboard. And the company will not be allowed to seek loans from any lender registered in New York for three years (most reputable ones had anyway stopped doing business with it long ago). Appellate courts will probably pause the order while they consider Mr Trump’s appeal; that process could take two years or more.

Yet the ruling also contained a reprieve from one of Judge Engoron’s previous decisions. In September, in a pre-trial order, he demanded the cancellation of corporate charters that allow the firm to operate in New York. That was a death knell, since it would have meant the liquidation of the business. After Mr Trump’s lawyer asked Judge Engoron whether that was truly his intention the judge said he would think about it, and on February 16th he walked it back, calling the termination of the business licences “no longer necessary”.

The lawsuit unearthed some embarrassing stuff. Each year Mr Trump announced his desired net worth to his lieutenants, who would then reverse-engineer asset values to achieve it. He reported his own triplex apartment in Manhattan as having three times its actual square footage. Mr Trump’s defence throughout the trial—that outside accountants had certified the financial statements, and that no bank suffered losses on account of the misreported valuations—got no traction with the judge. Letitia James, New York’s attorney-general, said Mr Trump’s lenders could have made $168m more had they not been tricked into charging him preferential interest rates.

Her allegations were numerous enough, yet still the case against Mr Trump kept mounting in recent months. Midway through the trial, the monitor overseeing the Trump Organisation noted that not long ago it made an undisclosed cash transfer of $29m to Mr Trump. The firm’s records were “incomplete”, the monitor added.

Most damaging of all, though, was Mr Trump’s own behaviour during the trial. He repeatedly insulted Judge Engoron’s clerk on social media. That prompted the judge to bar him from making statements about her—a gag order Mr Trump duly violated, incurring fines worth $15,000. Mr Trump could not stop himself from attacking Judge Engoron either. “I know this is boring for you,” he scolded the judge while delivering his own defence during closing arguments. “You have your own agenda, I can certainly understand that. You can’t listen for more than one minute.”

In his ruling, Judge Engoron described how he paid close attention to every witness: their expressions and demeanour and body language. All that influenced his decision, and shed light on each player’s self-interest, common sense and credibility. On the last point Mr Trump was “severely compromised”.

Whether Mr Trump is compromised politically by the ruling is another matter. As with his multiple other legal troubles, he is using the affair as an opportunity to attack “corrupt” Democrats for “election interfering”. Appearing on the steps of his home at Mar-a-Lago after the ruling, he accused President Joe Biden of “a witch hunt against his political opponent the likes of which our country has never seen before”.

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Donald Trump sacks America’s top military brass

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THE FIRST shot against America’s senior military leaders was fired within hours of Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20th: General Mark Milley’s portrait was removed from the wall on the E-ring, where it had hung with paintings of other former chairmen of the joint chiefs of staff. A day later the commandant of the coast guard, Admiral Linda Fagan, was thrown overboard. On February 21st it was the most senior serving officer, General Charles “CQ” Brown, a former F-16 pilot, who was ejected from the Pentagon. At least he was spared a Trumpian farewell insult. “He is a fine gentleman and an outstanding leader,” Mr Trump declared.

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Checks and Balance newsletter: The journalist’s dilemma of covering Trump

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Checks and Balance newsletter: The journalist’s dilemma of covering Trump

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Germany’s election will usher in new leadership — but might not change its economy

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Production at the VW plant in Emden.

Sina Schuldt | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

The struggling German economy has been a major talking point among critics of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ government during the latest election campaign — but analysts warn a new leadership might not turn these tides.

As voters prepare to head to the polls, it is now all but certain that Germany will soon have a new chancellor. The Christian Democratic Union’s Friedrich Merz is the firm favorite.

Merz has not shied away from blasting Scholz’s economic policies and from linking them to the lackluster state of Europe’s largest economy. He argues that a government under his leadership would give the economy the boost it needs.

Experts speaking to CNBC were less sure.

“There is a high risk that Germany will get a refurbished economic model after the elections, but not a brand new model that makes the competition jealous,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, told CNBC.

The CDU/CSU economic agenda

The CDU, which on a federal level ties up with regional sister party the Christian Social Union, is running on a “typical economic conservative program,” Brzeski said.

It includes income and corporate tax cuts, fewer subsidies and less bureaucracy, changes to social benefits, deregulation, support for innovation, start-ups and artificial intelligence and boosting investment among other policies, according to CDU/CSU campaigners.

“The weak parts of the positions are that the CDU/CSU is not very precise on how it wants to increase investments in infrastructure, digitalization and education. The intention is there, but the details are not,” Brzeski said, noting that the union appears to be aiming to revive Germany’s economic model without fully overhauling it.

“It is still a reform program which pretends that change can happen without pain,” he said.

Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of forecasting at research institute DIW Berlin, noted that the CDU is also looking to reach gross domestic product growth of around 2% again through its fiscal and economic program called “Agenda 2030.”

But reaching such levels of economic expansion in Germany “seems unrealistic,” not just temporarily, but also in the long run, she told CNBC.

Germany’s GDP declined in both 2023 and 2024. Recent quarterly growth readings have also been teetering on the verge of a technical recession, which has so far been narrowly avoided. The German economy shrank by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, compared with the previous three-month stretch, according to the latest reading.

Europe’s largest economy faces pressure in key industries like the auto sector, issues with infrastructure like the country’s rail network and a housebuilding crisis.

Dany-Knedlik also flagged the so-called debt brake, a long-standing fiscal rule that is enshrined in Germany’s constitution, which limits the size of the structural budget deficit and how much debt the government can take on.

Whether or not the clause should be overhauled has been a big part of the fiscal debate ahead of the election. While the CDU ideally does not want to change the debt brake, Merz has said that he may be open to some reform.

“To increase growth prospects substantially without increasing debt also seems rather unlikely,” DIW’s Dany-Knedlik said, adding that, if public investments were to rise within the limits of the debt brake, significant tax increases would be unavoidable.

“Taking into account that a 2 Percent growth target is to be reached within a 4 year legislation period, the Agenda 2030 in combination with conservatives attitude towards the debt break to me reads more of a wish list than a straight forward economic growth program,” she said.

Change in German government will deliver economic success, says CEO of German employers association

Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, sees some benefits to the plans of the CDU-CSU union, saying they would likely “be positive” for the economy, but warning that the resulting boost would be small.

“Tax cuts would support consumer spending and private investment, but weak sentiment means consumers may save a significant share of their additional after-tax income and firms may be reluctant to invest,” she told CNBC.  

Palmas nevertheless pointed out that not everyone would come away a winner from the new policies. Income tax cuts would benefit middle- and higher-income households more than those with a lower income, who would also be affected by potential reductions of social benefits.

Coalition talks ahead

Following the Sunday election, the CDU/CSU will almost certainly be left to find a coalition partner to form a majority government, with the Social Democratic Party or the Green party emerging as the likeliest candidates.

The parties will need to broker a coalition agreement outlining their joint goals, including on the economy — which could prove to be a difficult undertaking, Capital Economics’ Palmas said.

“The CDU and the SPD and Greens have significantly different economic policy positions,” she said, pointing to discrepancies over taxes and regulation. While the CDU/CSU want to reduce both items, the SPD and Greens seek to raise taxes and oppose deregulation in at least some areas, Palmas explained.

The group is nevertheless likely to hold the power in any potential negotiations as it will likely have their choice between partnering with the SPD or Greens.

“Accordingly, we suspect that the coalition agreement will include most of the CDU’s main economic proposals,” she said.

Germany is 'lacking ambition,' investor says

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