Connect with us

Economics

The consequences of Donald Trump’s huge fine for fraud

Published

on

IT DOES NOT bode well when a judge, before meting out a punishment, tells a defendant that his lack of remorse “borders on pathological”. Sure enough, that dressing-down of Donald Trump preceded an enormous fine in a civil ruling on February 16th. A judge in New York ordered him and his property business to pay $355m (plus an estimated $86m in interest) for cooking the books over several years. Time and again the Trump Organisation inflated asset values to secure better loan terms, the judge found. New York’s attorney-general, who brought the lawsuit, said Mr Trump had “full knowledge of and responsibility for” the scheme.

Mr Trump called the case a “fraud on me” and promised to appeal. He may have to cough up only a portion of the fine while that is pending—how much exactly will be up to the judge. The penalty comes on top of an $88m award owed to E. Jean Carroll, a writer whom Mr Trump sexually assaulted decades ago and then defamed over the past few years. Mr Trump should be able to pay both without having to sell much in the way of assets: last year in a deposition he said he had “substantially” more than $400m in cash on hand. But there is no escaping the fact that he is personally on the hook. Neither fine can be satisfied with campaign funds, which he has used to cover his lawyers’ fees in his four criminal trials. (The first of those, over hush money paid to a porn star, starts next month in New York.)

The ruling from Judge Arthur Engoron was blistering, and followed an 11-week trial that began in October. The Trump Organisation was found to have overvalued assets by between $812m and $2.2bn from 2014 to 2021. Mr Trump’s repeated refusal to admit wrongdoing turned a “venial sin” into something more nefarious, wrote the judge. The former president and his co-defendants—his two eldest sons and two employees—adopted a “‘See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil’ posture that the evidence belies”. Nothing short of a complete overhaul of the business would deter them from future misconduct.

The ruling aims to transform how the Trump Organisation operates. Judge Engoron barred Mr Trump from working as a corporate director in New York for three years. His two eldest sons, who are co-chief executives, were each given a two-year ban. An independent monitor appointed in 2022 to babysit the firm will have her remit expanded for at least three more years. An independent compliance officer will come aboard. And the company will not be allowed to seek loans from any lender registered in New York for three years (most reputable ones had anyway stopped doing business with it long ago). Appellate courts will probably pause the order while they consider Mr Trump’s appeal; that process could take two years or more.

Yet the ruling also contained a reprieve from one of Judge Engoron’s previous decisions. In September, in a pre-trial order, he demanded the cancellation of corporate charters that allow the firm to operate in New York. That was a death knell, since it would have meant the liquidation of the business. After Mr Trump’s lawyer asked Judge Engoron whether that was truly his intention the judge said he would think about it, and on February 16th he walked it back, calling the termination of the business licences “no longer necessary”.

The lawsuit unearthed some embarrassing stuff. Each year Mr Trump announced his desired net worth to his lieutenants, who would then reverse-engineer asset values to achieve it. He reported his own triplex apartment in Manhattan as having three times its actual square footage. Mr Trump’s defence throughout the trial—that outside accountants had certified the financial statements, and that no bank suffered losses on account of the misreported valuations—got no traction with the judge. Letitia James, New York’s attorney-general, said Mr Trump’s lenders could have made $168m more had they not been tricked into charging him preferential interest rates.

Her allegations were numerous enough, yet still the case against Mr Trump kept mounting in recent months. Midway through the trial, the monitor overseeing the Trump Organisation noted that not long ago it made an undisclosed cash transfer of $29m to Mr Trump. The firm’s records were “incomplete”, the monitor added.

Most damaging of all, though, was Mr Trump’s own behaviour during the trial. He repeatedly insulted Judge Engoron’s clerk on social media. That prompted the judge to bar him from making statements about her—a gag order Mr Trump duly violated, incurring fines worth $15,000. Mr Trump could not stop himself from attacking Judge Engoron either. “I know this is boring for you,” he scolded the judge while delivering his own defence during closing arguments. “You have your own agenda, I can certainly understand that. You can’t listen for more than one minute.”

In his ruling, Judge Engoron described how he paid close attention to every witness: their expressions and demeanour and body language. All that influenced his decision, and shed light on each player’s self-interest, common sense and credibility. On the last point Mr Trump was “severely compromised”.

Whether Mr Trump is compromised politically by the ruling is another matter. As with his multiple other legal troubles, he is using the affair as an opportunity to attack “corrupt” Democrats for “election interfering”. Appearing on the steps of his home at Mar-a-Lago after the ruling, he accused President Joe Biden of “a witch hunt against his political opponent the likes of which our country has never seen before”.

Economics

Donald Trump has many ways to hurt Elon Musk

Published

on

THERE WAS a time, not long ago, when an important skill for journalists was translating the code in which powerful people spoke about each other. Carefully prepared speeches and other public remarks would be dissected for hints about the arguments happening in private. Among Donald Trump’s many achievements is upending this system. In his administration people seem to say exactly what they think at any given moment. Wild threats are made—to end habeas corpus; to take Greenland by force—without any follow-through. Journalists must now try to guess what is real and what is for show.

Continue Reading

Economics

Donald Trump has many ways to hurt Elon Musk

Published

on

THERE WAS a time, not long ago, when an important skill for journalists was translating the code in which powerful people spoke about each other. Carefully prepared speeches and other public remarks would be dissected for hints about the arguments happening in private. Among Donald Trump’s many achievements is upending this system. In his administration people seem to say exactly what they think at any given moment. Wild threats are made—to end habeas corpus; to take Greenland by force—without any follow-through. Journalists must now try to guess what is real and what is for show.

Continue Reading

Economics

Jobs report May 2025:

Published

on

U.S. payrolls increased 139,000 in May, more than expected; unemployment at 4.2%

Hiring decreased just slightly in May even as consumers and companies braced against tariffs and a potentially slowing economy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 139,000 for the month, above the muted Dow Jones estimate for 125,000 and a bit below the downwardly revised 147,000 that the U.S. economy added in April.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. A more encompassing measure that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed also was unchanged, holding at 7.8%.

Worker pay grew more than expected, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% during the month and 3.9% from a year ago, compared with respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%.

“Stronger than expected jobs growth and stable unemployment underlines the resilience of the US labor market in the face of recent shocks,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

Nearly half the job growth came from health care, which added 62,000, even higher than its average gain of 44,000 over the past year. Leisure and hospitality contributed 48,000 while social assistance added 16,000.

On the downside, government lost 22,000 jobs as efforts to cull the federal workforce by President Donald Trump and the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency began to show an impact.

Stock market futures jumped higher after the release as did Treasury yields.

Though the May numbers were better than expected, there were some underlying trouble spots.

The April count was revised lower by 30,000, while March’s total came down by 65,000 to 120,000.

There also were disparities between the establishment survey, which is used to generate the headline payrolls gain, and the household survey, which is used for the unemployment rate. The latter count, generally more volatile than the establishment survey, showed a decrease of 696,000 workers. Full-time workers declined by 623,000, while part-timers rose by 33,000.

“The May jobs report still has everyone waiting for the other shoe to drop,” said Daniel Zhao, lead economist at job rating site Glassdoor. “This report shows the job market standing tall, but as economic headwinds stack up cumulatively, it’s only a matter of time before the job market starts straining against those headwinds.”

The report comes against a teetering economic background, complicated by Trump’s tariffs and an ever-changing variable of how far he will go to try to level the global playing field for American goods.

Most indicators show that the economy is still a good distance from recession. But sentiment surveys indicate high degrees of anxiety from both consumers and business leaders as they brace for the ultimate impact of how much tariffs will slow business activity and increase inflation.

For their part, Federal Reserve officials are viewing the current landscape with caution.

The central bank holds its next policy meeting in less than two weeks, with markets largely expecting the Fed to stay on hold regarding interest rates. In recent speeches, policymakers have indicated greater concern with the potential for tariff-induced inflation.

“With the Fed laser-focused on managing the risks to the inflation side of its mandate, today’s stronger than expected jobs report will do little to alter its patient approach,” said Rosner, the Goldman Sachs strategist.

Friday also marks the final day before Fed officials head into their quiet period before the meeting, when they do not issue policy remarks.

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO

Continue Reading

Trending