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The Fed has set out on a ‘recalibration’ of policy. Here’s what Powell’s new buzzword means

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Fed Chair Powell: We know it's time to recalibrate our policy

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has unveiled his latest buzzword to describe monetary policy, with a “recalibration” of policy at a pivotal moment for the central bank.

At his news conference following Wednesday’s open market committee meeting, Powell used variations of the word no fewer than eight times as he sought to explain why the central bank took the unusual step of a half percentage point rate cut absent an obvious economic weakening.

“This recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market, and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we begin the process of moving forward a more neutral stance,” Powell said.

Financial markets weren’t quite sure what to make of the chair’s messaging in the meeting’s immediate aftermath.

However, asset prices soared Thursday as investors took Powell at his word that the unusually outsized move wasn’t in response to a substantial slowing of the economy. Rather, it was an opportunity to “recalibrate” Fed policy away from a rigid focus on inflation to a broader effort to make sure a recent weakening of the labor market didn’t get out of hand.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 jumped to new highs in trading Thursday after swinging violently Wednesday.

“Policy had been calibrated for meaningfully higher inflation. With the inflation rate now drifting close to target, the Fed can remove some of that aggressive tightening that they put into place,” said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income.

“It really allows him to push this narrative that this easing cycle is not about us being in recession, it is about extending the economic expansion,” he added. “I think it’s a really powerful idea. It’s something we had been hoping that he would do.”

Powell’s buzzwords

Several of Powell’s previous efforts to provide buzzy descriptions of Fed policy or its views on the economy haven’t worked out so well.

In 2018, his characterizations of the efforts to reduce its bond holdings as being on “autopilot,” as well as his assessment that a string of rate hikes the same year had brought the Fed “a long way” from a neutral interest rate spurred blowback from markets.

More famously, his insistence that an inflation surge in 2021 would prove “transitory” ended up causing the Fed to be slow-footed on policy to the point where it had to enact a series of three-quarter percentage point rate hikes to pull down inflation.

But markets expressed confidence in Powell’s latest assessment, despite this track record and some signs of cracks in the economy.

The Fed has underestimated the extent of their 'new language' in cutting, says Narayana Kocherlakota

“In other contexts, a larger move may convey greater concern about growth, but Powell repeatedly stressed this was basically a joyous cut as ebbing inflation allows the Fed to act to preserve a strong labor market,” Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, said in a client note. “Moreover, if policy is set optimally, it should return the economy to a favorable place over time.”

Still Feroli expects the Fed will have to follow up Wednesday’s action with a similar-sized move at the Nov. 6-7 meeting unless the labor market reverses a slowing pattern that began in April.

There was some good news on the jobs front Thursday, as the Labor Department reported that weekly claims for unemployment benefits slid to 219,000, the lowest since May.

An unusual move lower

The half percentage point — or 50 basis point — cut was remarkable in that it’s the first time the Fed has gone beyond its traditional quarter-point moves absent a looming recession or crisis.

Though Powell did not give credence to the notion that the move was a make-up call for not cutting at the July meeting, speculation on Wall Street was that the central bank indeed was playing catch-up to some degree.

“This is a matter of maybe he felt like they were getting a little bit behind,” said Dan North, senior economist or North America at Allianz Trade. “A 50 basis point cut is pretty unusual. It’s been a long time, and I think it was maybe the last labor market report that gave him pause.”

Indeed, Powell has made no secret of his concerns about the labor market, and stated Wednesday that getting in front of a potential weakening was an important motivator behind the recalibration.

“The Fed still sees the economy as healthy and the labor market as solid, but Powell noted that it is time to recalibrate policy,” wrote Seth Carpenter, chief global economist at Morgan Stanley. “Powell has stressed and proven with this rate cut that the FOMC is willing to move gradually or make bigger moves depending on the incoming data and evolution of risks.”

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Fed cuts set up strong markets next few months but election uncertainty remains

Carpenter is among the group that expects the Fed now can dial down its accommodation back to quarter-point increments through the rest of this year and into the first half of 2025.

Futures markets traders, though, are pricing in a more aggressive pace that would entail a quarter-point cut in November but back to a half-point move in December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave noted a change in the Fed’s post-meeting statement that included a reference to seeking “maximum employment,” a mention he took to indicate that the central bank is ready to stay aggressive if the jobs picture continues to deteriorate.

That also means the recalibration could get tricky.

“We think the Fed will end up front-loading rate cuts more than it has indicated,” Bhave said in a note. “The labor market is likely to remain tepid, and we think markets will push to do another super-sized cut in 4Q.”

Economics

Why stricter voting laws no longer help Republicans

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“The Republicans should pray for rain”—the title of a paper published by a trio of political scientists in 2007—has been an axiom of American elections for years. The logic was straightforward: each inch of election-day showers, the study found, dampened turnout by 1%. Lower turnout gave Republicans an edge because the party’s affluent electorate had the resources to vote even when it was inconvenient. Their opponents, less so.

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Why the president must not be lexicographer-in-chief

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Who decides what legal terms mean? If it is Donald Trump, God help America

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Economics

Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

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Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

Inflation barely budged in April as tariffs President Donald Trump implemented in the early part of the month had yet to show up in consumer prices, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, increased just 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.1%. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast while the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower.

Excluding food and energy, the core reading that tends to get even greater focus from Fed policymakers showed readings of 0.1% and 2.5%, against respective estimates of 0.1% and 2.6%.

Consumer spending, though, slowed sharply for the month, posting just a 0.2% increase, in line with the consensus but slower than the 0.7% rate in March. A more cautious consumer mood also was reflected in the personal savings rate, which jumped to 4.9%, up from 0.6 percentage point in March to the highest level in nearly a year.

Personal income surged 0.8%, a slight increase from the prior month but well ahead of the forecast for 0.3%.

Markets showed little reaction to the news, with stock futures continuing to point lower and Treasury yields mixed.

People shop at a grocery store in Brooklyn on May 13, 2025 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Trump has been pushing the Fed to lower its key interest rate as inflation has continued to gravitate back to the central bank’s 2% target. However, policymakers have been hesitant to move as they await the longer-term impacts of the president’s trade policy.

On Thursday, Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell held their first face-to-face meeting since the president started his second term. However, a Fed statement indicated the future path of monetary policy was not discussed and stressed that decisions would be made free of political considerations.

Trump slapped across-the-board 10% duties on all U.S. imports, part of an effort to even out a trading landscape in which the U.S. ran a record $140.5 billion deficit in March. In addition to the general tariffs, Trump launched selective reciprocal tariffs much higher than the 10% general charge.

Since then, though, Trump has backed off the more severe tariffs in favor of a 90-day negotiating period with the affected countries. Earlier this week, an international court struck down the tariffs, saying Trump exceeded his authority and didn’t prove that national security was threatened by the trade issues.

Then in the latest installment of the drama, an appeals court allowed a White House effort for a temporary stay of the order from the U.S. Court of International Trade.

Economists worry that tariffs could spark another round of inflation, though the historical record shows that their impact is often minimal.

At their policy meeting earlier this month, Fed officials also expressed worry about potential tariff inflation, particularly at a time when concerns are rising about the labor market. Higher prices and slower economic growth can yield stagflation, a phenomenon the U.S. hasn’t seen since the early 1980s.

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