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The Fed just cut interest rates again, this time by a quarter of a percentage point

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The Fed’s rate cut came in response to inflation heading closer to the 2% mark.  (iStock )

The Federal Reserve just cut interest rates for the second time this year, a move that was largely expected as inflation continues to drop. The Fed lowered rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.5% to 4.75%.

The decision came on the heels of the lowest rise in inflation since 2021. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) technically increased by 0.2% in September, but this rise was minimal compared to what consumers have seen in the last few years.

“Unexpectedly low October job growth came on the heels of better-than-expected labor market data in September that has since been revised lower,” Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale said in a meeting about the cuts.

“These data remind decision makers that it is important to consider broad trends rather than any single piece of information. As a whole, the totality of the data suggests that the labor market continues to slow, and the risks of cooling too fast or too slow are likely more balanced than was thought in early October,” Hale said.

Back in September, the Fed initially cut rates by half a percentage point to 4.75% to 5%. Both rate cuts were in response to inflation inching lower towards the 2% mark the Fed has aimed for. At this moment, it’s difficult to determine if any more rate cuts are coming down the line. 

“Financial markets fully anticipated this rate cut, and the FOMC’s statement provides no new information regarding the likelihood of future cuts,” MBA SVP and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni said in a statement.

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THE US ADDED 818,000 FEWER JOBS THIS YEAR THAN ORIGINALLY ESTIMATED

Mortgage rates rise despite Fed’s rate cut

Not all loans and credit will follow these rate cuts. The election and its effects on the economy have a major impact on the outcome of rates as well.

“MBA expects that mortgage rates will remain within a fairly narrow range over the next year, with mortgage rates moving higher on signs of economic strength and more stimulative fiscal or monetary policy, or lower if it’s the opposite,” Fratantoni explained. “Housing markets continue to be primed for a stronger spring homebuying season, boosted by more housing supply and slower home-price growth.” 

On the heels of the rate cuts, mortgage rates actually rose last week from 6.72% to 6.79% for 30-year fixed home loans, Freddie Mac reported. Some economists cite the election results as a potential reason for the turbulent market.

“While it’s not always 100% clear what markets are thinking, they could be expecting a combination of stronger economic growth, more fiscal spending, as well as higher prices and inflation because of more tariffs and lower taxes,” Realtor.com Senior Economist Ralph McLaughlin said.

After the Trump-Vance victory, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to the highest level since April, and typically, mortgage rates move in the same direction as the 10-year yield. This wasn’t the case this past week.

“While we still expect mortgage rates to stabilize by the end of the year, they will likely be at a higher level than markets were initially expecting prior to election week,” explained McLaughlin.

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HOUSING BEGINS TO TIP IN FAVOR OF BUYERS; SELLERS SLASH PRICES TO ENTICE THEM BACK TO MARKET: REPORT

The homebuying market has the potential to rebound in 2025

Despite hard times for mortgage rates, there is some optimism among experts in the mortgage industry, although it’s difficult to predict exactly when prices and rates may drop.

“The Fed’s rate cut was widely anticipated and unlikely to herald in much of a change for the housing market. Potential homebuyers will be disappointed to see that mortgage rates remain stubbornly high, as it also moves with the 10-year Treasury, so the markets will only slowly begin to normalize,” CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp said in a statement. “We anticipate a much more improved rate environment for homebuying next year.”

Homebuyers have, by in large, been dragging their feet on homebuying. Many homeowners currently have mortgage rates below 6%, so they’re not selling their homes. Homes that are on the market are sitting there for longer as buyers wait for volatile rates to settle.  

“Despite these challenges, Americans remain optimistic about homeownership, and homebuilders are positioned to fill in the gaps, especially if policy makers at the federal, state, and local levels can clear challenges to building,” said Hale.

“While existing home sales continue to tread near 30-year lows, new home sales remain on par with a pace similar to 2019, and even as existing home prices continue to climb, a focus on smaller-footprints and affordability has kept new home prices more steady,” further explained Hale.

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MORTGAGE PAYMENTS SOAR FOR PROSPECTIVE HOMEOWNERS IN SWING STATES: REALTOR.COM

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Berkshire advances on surge in earnings, but questions linger about cash

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Warren Buffett walks the floor ahead of the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting in Omaha, Nebraska on May 3, 2024. 

David A. Grogen | CNBC

Berkshire Hathaway shares got a boost after Warren Buffett’s conglomerate reported a surge in operating earnings, but shareholders who were waiting for news of what will happen to its enormous pile of cash might be disappointed.

Class A shares of the Omaha-based parent of Geico and BNSF Railway rose 1.2% premarket Monday following Berkshire’s earnings report over the weekend. Berkshire’s operating profit — earnings from the company’s wholly owned businesses — skyrocketed 71% to $14.5 billion in the fourth quarter, aided by insurance underwriting, where profits jumped 302% from the year-earlier period, to $3.4 billion.

Berkshire’s investment gains from its portfolio holdings slowed sharply, however, in the fourth quarter, to $5.2 billion from $29.1 billion in the year-earlier period. Berkshire sold more equities than it bought for a ninth consecutive quarter in the three months of last year, bringing total sale of equities to more than $134 billion in 2024. Notably, the 94-year-old investor has been aggressively shrinking Berkshire’s two largest equity holdings — Apple and Bank of America.

As a result of the selling spree, Berkshire’s gigantic cash pile grew to another record of $334.2 billion, up from $325.2 billion at the end of the third quarter. 

In Buffett’s annual letter, the “Oracle of Omaha” said that raising a record amount of cash didn’t reflect a dimming of his love for buying stocks and businesses.

“Despite what some commentators currently view as an extraordinary cash position at Berkshire, the great majority of your money remains in equities,” Buffett wrote. “That preference won’t change.”

He hinted that high valuations were the reason for sitting on his hands amid a raging bull market, saying “often, nothing looks compelling.” Buffett also endorsed the ability of Greg Abek, his chosen successor, to pick equity opportunities, even comparing him to the late Charlie Munger.

Meanwhile, Berkshire’s buyback halt is still in place as the conglomerate repurchased zero shares in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter of this year, through Feb. 10.

Some investors and analysts expressed impatience with the lack of action and continued to wait for an explanation, while others have faith that Buffett’s conservative stance will pave the way for big opportunities in the next downturn.

“Shareholders should take comfort in knowing that the firm continues to be managed to survive and emerge stronger from any economic or market downturn by being in a financial position to take advantage of opportunities during a crisis,” said Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust Company and a Berkshire shareholder.

Berkshire is coming off a strong year, when it rallied 25.5% in 2024, outperforming the S&P 500 — its best since 2021. The stock is up more than 5% so far in 2025.

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Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: DPZ, BABA, RIVN, PLTR

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China strives to attract foreign investment amid geopolitical tensions

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Tensions between the world’s two largest economies have escalated over the last several years.

Florence Lo | Reuters

BEIJING — China is trying yet again to boost foreign investment, amid geopolitical tensions and businesses’ calls for more concrete actions.

On Feb. 19, authorities published a “2025 action plan for stabilizing foreign investment” to make it easier for foreign capital to invest in domestic telecommunication and biotechnology industries, according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese.

The document called for clearer standards in government procurement — a major issue for foreign businesses in China — and for the development of a plan to gradually allow foreign investment in the education and culture sectors.

“We are looking forward to see this implemented in a manner that delivers tangible benefits for our members,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, said in a statement Thursday.

The chamber pointed out that China has already mentioned plans to open up telecommunications, health care, education and culture to foreign investment. Greater clarity on public procurement requirements is a “notable positive,” the chamber said, noting that “if fully implemented,” it could benefit foreign companies that have invested heavily to localize their production in China.

There will be a 'stronger push' for foreign direct investments by the Chinese government: Strategist

China’s latest action plan was released around the same time the Commerce Ministry disclosed that foreign direct investment in January fell by 13.4% to 97.59 billion yuan ($13.46 billion). That was after FDI plunged by 27.1% in 2024 and dropped by 8% in 2023, after at least eight straight years of annual growth, according to official data available through Wind Information.

All regions should “ensure that all the measures are implemented in 2025, and effectively boost foreign investment confidence,” the plan said. The Ministry of Commerce and National Development and Reform Commission — the economic planning agency — jointly released the action plan through the government’s executive body, the State Council.

Officials from the Commerce Ministry emphasized in a press conference Thursday that the action plan would be implemented by the end of 2025, and that details on subsequent supportive measures would come soon.

“We appreciate the Chinese government’s recognition of the vital role foreign companies play in the economy,” Michael Hart, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, said in a statement. “We look forward to further discussions on the key challenges our members face and the steps needed to ensure a more level playing field for market access.”

AmCham China’s latest survey of members, released last month, found that a record share are considering or have started diversifying manufacturing or sourcing away from China. The prior year’s survey had found members were finding it harder to make money in China than before the Covid-19 pandemic.

Consumer spending in China has remained lackluster since the pandemic, with retail sales only growing by the low single digits in recent months. Tensions with the U.S. have meanwhile escalated as the White House has restricted Chinese access to advanced technology and levied tariffs on Chinese goods.

‘A very strong signal’

While many aspects of the action plan were publicly mentioned last year, some points — such as allowing foreign companies to buy local equity stakes using domestic loans — are relatively new, said Xiaojia Sun, Beijing-based partner at JunHe Law.

She also highlighted the plan’s call to support foreign investors’ ability to participate in mergers and acquisitions in China, and noted it potentially benefits overseas listings. Sun’s practice covers corporates, mergers and acquisitions and capital markets.

The bigger question remains China’s resolve to act on the plan.

“This action plan is a very strong signal,” Sun said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. She said she expects Beijing to follow through with implementation, and noted that its release was similar to a rare, high-profile meeting earlier in the week of Chinese President Xi Jinping and entrepreneurs.

That gathering on Feb. 17 included Alibaba founder Jack Ma and DeepSeek’s Liang Wenfeng. In recent years, regulatory crackdowns and uncertainty about future growth had dampened business confidence and foreign investor sentiment.

China needs to strike a balance between tariff retaliation and stabilizing FDI, Citi analysts pointed out earlier this month.

“We believe China policymakers are likely cautious about targeting U.S. [multinationals] as a form of retaliation against U.S. tariffs,” the analysts said. “FDI comes into China, bringing technology and know-how, creating jobs, revenue and profit, and contributing to tax revenue.” 

In a relatively rare acknowledgement, Chinese Commerce Ministry officials on Thursday noted the impact of geopolitical tensions on foreign investment, including some companies’ decision to diversify away from China. They also pointed out that foreign-invested firms contribute to nearly 7% of employment and around 14% of taxes in the country.

Previously, official commentary from the Commerce Ministry about any drop in FDI tended to focus only on how most foreign businesses remained optimistic about long-term prospects in China.

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