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Economics

The housing market, explained in 6 charts

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Prospective home buyers leave a property for sale during an Open House in a neighborhood in Clarksburg, Maryland.

Roberto Schmidt | AFP | Getty Images

It’s no secret that the housing market looks far different than it did a few years ago.

While surging mortgage rates and housing prices have taken away consumers’ purchasing power, low supply has kept the market competitive. As a result, affordability has tumbled dramatically from the early days of the pandemic.

These six charts help explain what this unique moment looks like — and what it means for you:

The 30-year mortgage rate, a popular option for home buyers utilizing financing, is key to understanding the market. This rate is essentially the borrowing costs tied to purchasing a home with financing. A higher rate, in reality, results in more interest due on a home loan.

For the past several months, this rate has hovered around the 7% level. While it has cooled after touching 8% late last year, it’s still far higher the sub-3% rates consumers could lock in during the first years of the pandemic.

Housing prices are also central to the equation for everyday Americans decision how much, or if, they can afford to spend. The Case-Shiller national home price index, which is calculated by S&P Dow Jones Indices, has notched record highs this year.

High prices can elicit different feelings by group. For hopeful homeowners, it can raise red flags that they are planning to buy at the wrong time. But current owners can see reason to celebrate, as it likely means their own property’s value has risen.

With both mortgages and prices up, it’s not surprising that affordability is down compared with the early innings of the pandemic.

There’s a few different readings of affordability painting a similar picture. One from the National Association of Realtors found affordability tumbled more than 33% between 2021 and 2023 alone.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s gauge showed the economic feasibility of home ownership plummeted more than 36% when comparing April to the pandemic high seen in summer 2020.

Another way the Atlanta Fed tracks this is through the share of income needed by the typical American to afford the median home. Nationally, it last required 43% of their pay, well above the 30% marker considered the threshold for affordability. It has been considered unaffordable, or above 30%, since mid 2021.

The Atlanta Fed also breaks out what’s driving the current lack of affordability. While significant pay increases in recent years have helped line wallets, the bank found that the negative impact of higher rates and list prices have more than outweighed the benefits of a bigger paycheck.

While the current mortgage rates are high, a team at the Federal Housing Finance Agency found a very small proportion of borrowers are actually locked in at these lofty levels.

Just shy of 98% of mortgages were below the average rate seen in the fourth quarter of last year, the FHFA found. Nearly 69% had a rate that was a whopping 3 percentage points below that average.

There’s two major reasons for why such a small share are paying current rates. The most obvious is that the housing market got hot when rates were low, but cooled significantly in the current period of higher borrowing costs.

The other answer is the race to refinance when rates were below or near 3% early in the pandemic. That allowed people who were already homeowners to take advantage of these relatively low levels.

Economics

UK inflation September 2024

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The Canary Wharf business district is seen in the distance behind autumnal leaves on October 09, 2024 in London, United Kingdom.

Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — Inflation in the U.K. dropped sharply to 1.7% in September, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the headline rate to come in at a higher 1.9% for the month, in the first dip of the print below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021.

Inflation has been hovering around that level for the last four months, and came in at 2.2% in August.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 3.2% for the month, down from 3.6% in August and below the 3.4% forecast of a Reuters poll.

Price rises in the services sector, the dominant portion of the U.K. economy, eased significantly to 4.9% last month from 5.6% in August, now hitting its lowest rate since May 2022.

Core and services inflation are key watch points for Bank of England policymakers as they mull whether to cut interest rates again at their November meeting.

As of Wednesday morning, market pricing put an 80% probability on a November rate cut ahead of the latest inflation print. Analysts on Tuesday said lower wage growth reported by the ONS this week had supported the case for a cut. The BOE reduced its key rate by 25 basis points in August before holding in September.

Within the broader European region, inflation in the euro zone dipped below the European Central Bank’s 2% target last month, hitting 1.8%, according to the latest data.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly.

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Economics

Why Larry Hogan’s long-odds bid for a Senate seat matters

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FEW REPUBLICAN politicians differ more from Donald Trump than Larry Hogan, the GOP Senate candidate in Maryland. Consider the contrasts between a Trump rally and a Hogan event. Whereas Mr Trump prefers to take the stage and riff in front of packed arenas, Mr Hogan spent a recent Friday night chatting with locals at a waterfront wedding venue in Baltimore County. Mr Hogan’s stump speech, at around ten minutes, felt as long as a single off-script Trump tangent. Mr Trump delights in defying his advisers; Mr Hogan fastidiously sticks to talking points about bipartisanship, good governance and overcoming tough odds. Put another way, Mr Hogan’s campaign is something Mr Trump is rarely accused of being: boring. But it is intriguing.

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Economics

Polarisation by education is remaking American politics

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DEPENDING ON where exactly you find yourself, western Pennsylvania can feel Appalachian, Midwestern, booming or downtrodden. No matter where, however, this part of the state feels like the centre of the American political universe. Since she became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris has visited Western Pennsylvania six times—more often than Philadelphia, on the other side of the state. She will mark her seventh on a trip on October 14th, to the small city of Erie, where Donald Trump also held a rally recently. Democratic grandees flit through Pittsburgh regularly. It is where Ms Harris chose to unveil the details of her economic agenda, and it is where Barack Obama visited on October 10th to deliver encouragement and mild chastisement. “Do not just sit back and hope for the best,” he admonished. “Get off your couch and vote.”

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