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The new American imperialism

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THE TRADITIONAL point of an inaugural address is to transcend the politics of the campaign and draw the country together. Donald Trump’s second inaugural was not that. But it stuck with tradition in other ways—it’s just that the traditions in question were much older.

The only one of his predecessors President Trump spent any discussing—other than excoriating the administration of the outgoing Joe Biden—was William McKinley, in his telling “a great president”, though he is not one many Americans would put in their pantheon. The reference came in a passage about restoring the 25th president’s name to Mount Denali, an idea that combines two Trump obsessions. America’s tallest mountain was officially given its koyukon (native Alaskan) name in 2015—which he considers a rewriting of history in deference to liberal sensibilities that is evidence of a woke mind virus. And the president who signed that change into law was Barack Obama, so reversing it undoes an Obama achievement too. But Mr Trump’s homage to McKinley, a fellow Republican, did not end there.

McKinley, who was inaugurated in 1897, presided over the negotiations that created the Panama Canal. He loved tariffs, both as a way to fund the government and to protect domestic industry. And he courted, and was courted by, robber barons of the Gilded Age.

President Trump has a thing about the Panama Canal. He thinks the terms of the treaty signing it over to its host country have been broken, and that it is controlled by China (it is not, though the Chinese government has gained influence in Panama). The single most attention-grabbing line in the speech, at least for those who are used to having an American president who respects other countries’ sovereignty, was: “we are taking it back.”

The treaty ceding the Panama canal was drawn up during Jimmy Carter’s presidency in 1977. Even back then this was opposed by conservatives as an unpatriotic betrayal by naive liberals, a perennial theme of Mr Trump’s (it is not just his taste in music that regularly defaults to the era of the Village People). To Panama, where the 82nd Airborne Division dropped in a decade later, when Mr Trump was in his 40s, this line sounds more menacing than many Americans realise.

So does the talk of territorial expansion, a theme no president has pursued seriously in over a century. The last president who increased America’s acreage substantially, as it happens, was William McKinley. Territories including Cuba, Hawaii and the Philippines were added to America in his first term, the latter as a consequence of a victory over Spain. “The truth is I didn’t want the Philippines,” McKinley said, “and when they came to us, as a gift from the gods, I did not know what to do with them.” America got bogged down fighting an insurrection there. For Mr Trump the point of territorial expansion is clear. (And extraterrestrial too—he thinks it is the country’s manifest destiny to plant its flag on Mars.) America must be “a growing nation” once again.

Back in the present day, America’s greatest foreign-policy challenges are managing the competition with China, conflict and instability in the Middle East and Russia’s occupation of Ukraine–not the fees paid by American warships to sail through the canal. But Mr Trump mentioned China only in the context of the canal. The Middle East made an appearance in a self-congratulatory passage about hostages. He did not mention Ukraine at all, except to allude to America providing “unlimited funding” to protect foreign borders while refusing to defend its own (claiming that “millions” of criminal migrants were crossing into the country). Even what he means by taking “back” the canal is uncertain. Would he actually settle for lower transit fees? Mr Trump has been president for four years, has been campaigning for the past four, has a reputation for blunt speaking—and on the biggest questions he is opaque.

The same applies to tariffs, where his worldview overlaps with McKinley’s. The 25th president signed the Dingley Act in 1897, which sent tariffs above 50%. In his first inaugural address McKinley said that this was to preserve the domestic market for American manufacturers, among other things. In an address to a joint session of Congress that he convened to pass tariffs, he presented them as a prudent act to fund the government without raising tax. Mr Trump thinks the same way. “We will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens,” he said. “It will be massive amounts of money pouring into our treasury, coming from foreign sources.” Here too, it is not yet clear what Mr Trump will actually do.

After McKinley was assassinated by an anarchist, that approach to protecting manufacturing became associated with the Democratic Party. The McKinley formula combined what is now seen as a left-leaning policy with a closeness to big business associated with the right. Mr Trump, like McKinley, brings them back together in his Republican Party. McKinley’s 1896 campaign received a $250,000 donation from J.P. Morgan and the same amount from Standard Oil (approaching $10m apiece in 2025 money). Mr Trump’s inauguration reserved prominent seats for Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg, all of whom gave money to the inaugural committee. The president announced the arrival of a new “golden age”. But on tariffs, territorial expansion and a fixation with Panama what he seems to want is a return to the gilded one.

Economics

The Medicaid calculus behind Donald Trump’s tax cuts

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HOW REPUBLICANS will find enough budget savings to pay for tax cuts is the political maths question of 2025. One of the most important calculations involves Medicaid, a government health programme for poor and disabled Americans. The problem is that Donald Trump has promised not to touch it, pledging to protect it for “the most vulnerable, for our kids, pregnant women.” On May 12th he also promised to lower prescription drug prices, although his plan is vague. Mr Trump’s populism on health benefits complicates the work of congressional Republicans hoping to slash spending. The committee that oversees Medicaid has finally released its proposal. Its outline steers clear of the deepest cuts that had been debated in Washington, but it nonetheless seeks large savings by imposing work requirements on Medicaid recipients who are unemployed.

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Economics

Tariff receipts topped $16 billion in April, a record that helped cut the budget deficit

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Shipping containers are seen at the port of Oakland, as trade tensions continued over U.S. tariffs with China, in Oakland, California, U.S., May 12, 2025.

Carlos Barria | Reuters

Receipts from U.S. tariffs hit a record level in April as revenue from President Donald Trump’s trade war started kicking in.

Customs duties totaled $16.3 billion for the month, some 86% above the $8.75 billion collected during March and more than double the $7.1 billion a year ago, the Treasury Department reported Monday.

That brought the year-to-date total for the duties up to $63.3 billion and more than 18% ahead of the same period in 2024. Trump instituted 10% across-the-board tariffs on U.S. imports starting April 2, which came on top of other select duties he had leveled previously.

While the U.S. is still running a massive budget deficit, the influx in tariffs helped shave some of the imbalance for April, a month in which the Treasury generally runs a surplus because of the income tax filing deadline hitting in mid-month.

The surplus totaled $258.4 billion for the month, up 23% from the same period a year ago. That cut the fiscal year-to-date total to $1.05 trillion, which is still 13% higher than a year ago.

Also on an annual basis, receipts rose 10% in April from 2024, while outlays declined 4%. Year to date, receipts are up 5%, while expenditures have risen 9%.

High interest rates are still posing a budgetary burden. Net interest on the $36.2 trillion national debt totaled $89 billion in April, higher than every other category except Social Security. For the fiscal year, net interest has run to $579 billion, also second highest of any outlay.

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Economics

Bessent sees tariff agreement as progress in ‘strategic’ decoupling with China

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Treasury Sec. Bessent: Likely to meet with China again 'in next few weeks' on a bigger agreement

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that the trade agreement reached over the weekend represents another stage in the U.S. shaking its reliance on Chinese products.

Though the U.S. “decoupling” itself from its need for cheap imports from the China has been discussed for years, the process has been a slow one and unlikely to ever mean a complete break.

However, Bessent said there are now specific elements of decoupling in place that are vital to U.S. interests. The U.S. imported nearly $440 billion in goods from China in 2024, running a $295.4 billion trade deficit.

“We do not want a generalized decoupling from China,” he said during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “But what we do want is a decoupling for strategic necessities, which we were unable to obtain during Covid and we realized that efficient supply chains were not resilient supply chains.”

When the pandemic struck in 2020, demand in the U.S. shifted from one reliant more on services to a greater focus on goods. That meant greater difficulty in obtaining material for multiple products including big-ticket appliances and automobiles. The technology industry, with its reliance on semiconductors, was also hit. What followed was an inflation surge in the U.S. not seen in more than 40 years.

The details of the U.S.-China pact are still sketchy, but U.S. officials have said so-called reciprocal tariffs will be suspended though broad-based 10% duties will remain in effect.

“We are going to create our own steel. [Tariffs] protect our steel industry. They work on critical medicines, on semiconductors,” Bessent said. “We are doing that, and the reciprocal tariffs have nothing to do with the specific industry tariffs.”

The agreement between the two sides is essentially a 90-day pause that will see reciprocal duties halted though the 10% tariff as well as a 20% charge related to fentanyl remain in place.

Bessent expressed encouragement on the fentanyl issue in which Chinese officials “are now serious about assisting the U.S. in stopping the flow of precursor drugs.” Bessent did not indicate a specific date when the next round of talks will be held but indicated it should be in the next several weeks.

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