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The new American imperialism

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THE TRADITIONAL point of an inaugural address is to transcend the politics of the campaign and draw the country together. Donald Trump’s second inaugural was not that. But it stuck with tradition in other ways—it’s just that the traditions in question were much older.

The only one of his predecessors President Trump spent any discussing—other than excoriating the administration of the outgoing Joe Biden—was William McKinley, in his telling “a great president”, though he is not one many Americans would put in their pantheon. The reference came in a passage about restoring the 25th president’s name to Mount Denali, an idea that combines two Trump obsessions. America’s tallest mountain was officially given its koyukon (native Alaskan) name in 2015—which he considers a rewriting of history in deference to liberal sensibilities that is evidence of a woke mind virus. And the president who signed that change into law was Barack Obama, so reversing it undoes an Obama achievement too. But Mr Trump’s homage to McKinley, a fellow Republican, did not end there.

McKinley, who was inaugurated in 1897, presided over the negotiations that created the Panama Canal. He loved tariffs, both as a way to fund the government and to protect domestic industry. And he courted, and was courted by, robber barons of the Gilded Age.

President Trump has a thing about the Panama Canal. He thinks the terms of the treaty signing it over to its host country have been broken, and that it is controlled by China (it is not, though the Chinese government has gained influence in Panama). The single most attention-grabbing line in the speech, at least for those who are used to having an American president who respects other countries’ sovereignty, was: “we are taking it back.”

The treaty ceding the Panama canal was drawn up during Jimmy Carter’s presidency in 1977. Even back then this was opposed by conservatives as an unpatriotic betrayal by naive liberals, a perennial theme of Mr Trump’s (it is not just his taste in music that regularly defaults to the era of the Village People). To Panama, where the 82nd Airborne Division dropped in a decade later, when Mr Trump was in his 40s, this line sounds more menacing than many Americans realise.

So does the talk of territorial expansion, a theme no president has pursued seriously in over a century. The last president who increased America’s acreage substantially, as it happens, was William McKinley. Territories including Cuba, Hawaii and the Philippines were added to America in his first term, the latter as a consequence of a victory over Spain. “The truth is I didn’t want the Philippines,” McKinley said, “and when they came to us, as a gift from the gods, I did not know what to do with them.” America got bogged down fighting an insurrection there. For Mr Trump the point of territorial expansion is clear. (And extraterrestrial too—he thinks it is the country’s manifest destiny to plant its flag on Mars.) America must be “a growing nation” once again.

Back in the present day, America’s greatest foreign-policy challenges are managing the competition with China, conflict and instability in the Middle East and Russia’s occupation of Ukraine–not the fees paid by American warships to sail through the canal. But Mr Trump mentioned China only in the context of the canal. The Middle East made an appearance in a self-congratulatory passage about hostages. He did not mention Ukraine at all, except to allude to America providing “unlimited funding” to protect foreign borders while refusing to defend its own (claiming that “millions” of criminal migrants were crossing into the country). Even what he means by taking “back” the canal is uncertain. Would he actually settle for lower transit fees? Mr Trump has been president for four years, has been campaigning for the past four, has a reputation for blunt speaking—and on the biggest questions he is opaque.

The same applies to tariffs, where his worldview overlaps with McKinley’s. The 25th president signed the Dingley Act in 1897, which sent tariffs above 50%. In his first inaugural address McKinley said that this was to preserve the domestic market for American manufacturers, among other things. In an address to a joint session of Congress that he convened to pass tariffs, he presented them as a prudent act to fund the government without raising tax. Mr Trump thinks the same way. “We will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens,” he said. “It will be massive amounts of money pouring into our treasury, coming from foreign sources.” Here too, it is not yet clear what Mr Trump will actually do.

After McKinley was assassinated by an anarchist, that approach to protecting manufacturing became associated with the Democratic Party. The McKinley formula combined what is now seen as a left-leaning policy with a closeness to big business associated with the right. Mr Trump, like McKinley, brings them back together in his Republican Party. McKinley’s 1896 campaign received a $250,000 donation from J.P. Morgan and the same amount from Standard Oil (approaching $10m apiece in 2025 money). Mr Trump’s inauguration reserved prominent seats for Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg, all of whom gave money to the inaugural committee. The president announced the arrival of a new “golden age”. But on tariffs, territorial expansion and a fixation with Panama what he seems to want is a return to the gilded one.

Economics

The euro zone is ready for a new member: Bulgaria

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A worker counts Bulgarian Lev banknotes at a store in Sofia, Bulgaria, on Friday, March 29, 2024.

Oliver Bunic/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Bulgaria on Wednesday secured the green light to join the euro zone, meaning the bloc could soon grow from 20 to 21 members.

The European Commission and European Central Bank both assessed that the country met the requirements to adopt the single currency starting next year.

“This positive assessment of convergence paves the way for Bulgaria to introduce the euro as of 1 January 2026 and become the 21st EU Member State to join the euro area,” Philip Lane, member of the ECB Executive Board, said in a press release.

The European Commission described the assessment as “a critical and historic step on Bulgaria’s journey towards euro adoption” in a statement.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated the country, saying the decision “will mean more investment and trade with euro area partners, and more stability and prosperity for the Bulgarian people.”

“Bulgaria will also take its rightful place in shaping euro area decisions,” she added in a social media post.

This marks a shift from last year’s reports, which concluded that Sofia did not meet the so-called convergence criteria to adopt the currency on the grounds that the country’s inflation rate was too high.

One of the obstacles to cross was inflation. Bulgaria’s harmonized consumer price index — which is comparable across European countries — came in at 2.8% in April according to statistics agency Eurostat.

Price stability is just one of the requirements a country needs to fulfil in order to join the euro zone, and thereby the European Central Bank. Others include limitations on the size of a nation’s government deficit and debt ratio, its average nominal long-term interest rate and its exchange rate stability.

There is also a legal requirement that covers central bank independence.

Bulgaria joined the European Union in 2007 and committed at the time to also join the euro zone and relinquish the Bulgarian lev as its official currency. Around 341 million people use the euro across the current 20 euro zone countries, according to the European Union. The ECB says over 29 billion euro bank notes with a value of more than 1.5 trillion euros ($1.7 trillion) are in circulation.

One euro is equivalent to 1.96 lev, a rate set when Bulgaria became part of the board which anchors the currencies.

There are mixed attitudes about joining the euro within Bulgaria. A survey published last year by the EU suggested 49% of the public was in favor of the becoming part of the euro bloc. Political opinion is also split, with several nationalist parties and the country’s president advocating against it, while Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov is supportive.

The European Commission said that alongside its assessment, it had also adopted proposals for a council decision and council regulation on Bulgaria’s euro adoption at the start of next year. The council of the EU has the final say on countries joining the euro zone.

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Economics

ADP jobs report May 2025:

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A sign promoting the benefits of working for McDonald’s hangs in the window of a restaurant on May 13, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois.

Scott Olson | Getty Images

Private sector job creation slowed to a near-standstill in May, hitting its lowest level in more than two years as signs emerged of a weakening labor market, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday.

Payrolls increased just 37,000 for the month, below the downwardly revised 60,000 in April and the Dow Jones forecast for 110,000. It was the lowest monthly job total from the ADP count since March 2023.

The report comes two days before the more closely watched nonfarm payrolls count from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is expected to show a gain of 125,000 and the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%.

While the two reports often differ, occasionally by large margins, the ADP count provides another snapshot of the jobs picture at a time when questions are being raised over broader economic conditions.

“After a strong start to the year, hiring is losing momentum,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist for ADP.

Goods-producing industries lost a net 2,000 positions for the month, with natural resources and mining off 5,000 and manufacturing down 3,000, offset by a gain of 6,000 in construction.

On the services side, leisure and hospitality (38,000) and financial activities (20,000) provided some signs of strength. However, declines of 17,000 in professional and business services, 13,000 in education and health services and 4,000 in trade, transportation and utilities weighed on the total.

Companies employing fewer than 50 workers saw a loss of 13,000 while those with 500 or more employees reported a drop of 3,000. Mid-size firms gained 49,000.

Regarding wages, annual pay grew at a 4.5% rate for those remaining in their positions and 7% for job changers, both little changed from April and still “robust” levels, Richardson said.

Economic data has provided a mixed bag of late for the labor market. The BLS reported Tuesday that job openings rose more than expected in April, though other indicators, such as surveys from employment site Indeed and the National Federation of Independent Business, show weaker levels of openings and hiring intentions.

“The market remains distressingly gridlocked, with limited hiring and low quits, and the market can’t keep steadily cooling off forever before it just turns cold,” Indeed economist Allison Shrivastava said after Tuesday’s job openings report.

Federal Reserve officials have been generally optimistic about economic conditions, though in recent days they have expressed concern about the potential impact from President Donald Trump’s tariffs on both inflation and employment.

“I see the U.S. economy as still being in a solid position, but heightened uncertainty poses risks to both price stability and unemployment,” Fed Governor Lisa Cook said Tuesday.

Fed officials are expected to stay on hold regarding interest rates when they meet in two weeks.

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Job openings showed surprising increase to 7.4 million in April

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JOLTS beats estimates, posts best number since February

Employers increased job openings more than expected in April while hiring and layoffs also both rose, according to a report Tuesday that showed a relatively steady labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed available jobs totaled nearly 7.4 million, an increase of 191,000 from March and higher than the 7.1 million consensus forecast by economists surveyed by FactSet. On an annual basis, the level was off 228,000, or about 3%.

The ratio of available jobs to unemployed workers was down close to 1.03 to 1 for the month, close to the March level.

Hiring also increased for the month, rising by 169,000 to 5.6 million, while layoffs fell by 196,000 to 1.79 million.

Quits, an indicator of worker confidence in their ability to find another job, edged lower, falling by 150,000 to 3.2 million.

“The labor market is returning to more normal levels despite the uncertainty within the macro outlook,” wrote Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Research. “Underlying patterns in hirings and firings suggest the labor market is holding steady.”

In other economic news Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported that new orders for manufactured goods fell more than expected in April. Orders fell 3.7% on the month, more than the 3.3% Dow Jones forecast and indicative of declining demand after swelling 3.4% in March as businesses sought to get ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

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