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The beginning of the end of the Trump era

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THE MOST jarring difference between Donald Trump’s first and second inaugurations will be the setting. Eight years ago he spoke in front of the Capitol building on a relatively mild January day, but frigid temperatures have pushed the ceremony inside for the first time in 40 years. A closer look at plans for this scaled-back event also offers hints at some of the profound contrasts between 2017 and 2025.

Mr Trump’s vice-president will be sworn in first. Last time he had at his side the steady hand of Mike Pence, a living embodiment of the orthodoxies of Reagan Republicanism. Mr Pence had spent more than a decade in the House of Representatives before serving as governor of Indiana for four years. He knew the ways of Washington and was friendly with all of the party’s core constituencies: free marketeers, social conservatives and foreign-policy hawks. His choice was a sign of humility from Mr Trump meant to reassure his party after a hostile takeover.

His choice this time around sent the opposite message. J.D. Vance, 40-years-old, has half as much experience as Mr Trump as an elected official in Washington. He spent his brief time in the Senate challenging the foundations of Republican thought on international relations and economics. His elevation is a sign that Mr Trump is self-assured enough to not need a guide so much as an attack dog and loyal servant—something he believes Mr Pence was not in the aftermath of the 2020 election.

Others who will be present—or at least those invited before the guest list was radically reduced—are evidence of the great paradox of Mr Trump’s second term. While he is less constrained, he takes office with much of America and the world seemingly less anxious about him in power.

Mr Trump was something of an international oddity in 2016. Some, like the prime minister of Japan, swiftly adapted to the new reality and visited Mr Trump in New York. This time Mr Trump has a broader international fan base. Javier Milei, the president of Argentina, plans to attend, along with Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni. The Chinese Communist Party will send the country’s vice-president, and India’s foreign minister will be there as well. Mr Trump had been conducting shadow foreign policy for weeks—with his advisers playing a role in the Gaza ceasefire—so it comes as no surprise to see such a broad guest list from abroad.

The American public’s reaction also has been starkly different. Rather than the palpable sense of dread apparent in January 2017, the streets are filled with tourists and there are parties taking place throughout the city. Organisers of an anti-Trump protest in Washington had hoped some 50,000 people might show up; around 5,000 did. Snoop Dogg, once a Trump critic, performed at the Crypto Ball (the president-elect, naturally, launched a new cryptocurrency the same day, called $TRUMP). The below-freezing temperatures should help to maintain this collective shrug from Mr Trump’s detractors. While the streets will probably be quiet, the rotunda, where Mr Trump will be sworn in, will be packed tight with America’s elite.

Mr Trump is at the peak of his power, before he has had to do anything unpopular, or disappoint any of the factions competing for his attention. Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk—all open Trump critics during the first term—have struck friendlier notes and are set to attend the inauguration. Even Bill Gates recently said he was “impressed” with the new president. Towards the end of the campaign, Forbes estimated that Kamala Harris had support from 83 billionaires to Mr Trump’s 52. Since winning, many business titans have been more open. “Everybody wants to be my friend,” Mr Trump observed in December. No doubt he is aware that much of this is self-interest as his administration is set to write new regulations and retire old ones, all of which could directly affect profit margins.

Also in attendance will be Mike Johnson, the House speaker, and John Thune, the Senate majority leader. For all his rage against the deep state and his own advisers who he believed undermined him last time around, Mr Trump also had his fair share of scuffles with Congress. More deftly handling the politicians on the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue will be as important for the Trump agenda as his war against the entrenched bureaucracy.

Here Mr Trump has made more effort in the run up to his second term. He personally intervened to ensure Mr Johnson remained speaker, and he has hosted various factions of Congress at Mar-a-Lago to talk strategy. Mr Trump is always unpredictable, but co-ordination has improved. For example, some executive actions may be delayed so that revenue savings can be passed by Congress and counted against revenue losses from tax-cut extensions. This may be the fate of Joe Biden’s ill-conceived executive order on student-loan bailouts.That does not mean the beginning of the new presidency will be quiet: expect a flurry of executive orders on immigration and trade right away.

Yet Mr Biden also issued plenty of executive orders on day one. Looking at them now–the reversal of the Muslim ban, the Covid-19 eviction moratorium, the whole-of-government initiative on racial equity–is like finding a time capsule buried in 2020. It is also a reminder that lasting change cannot be made by presidential fiat. To endure, policies need backing from Congress.

And while the Republican Party is very much outwardly MAGA—and agrees on cutting taxes, restricting immigration and bolstering energy production—many pre-Trump orthodoxies prevail. As he works with Congress, Mr Trump may find himself giving way to policies that don’t seem particularly revolutionary. “The striking thing about Republicans in Congress now is that they’re pretty recognisable” when compared to their Obama-era predecessors, argues Yuval Levin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a think-tank, and alumnus of George W. Bush’s administration. “They haven’t changed as much as you would think, given how different Trump is from where Republicans have been before.”

The Senate will also play its traditional role of slowing down an ambitious president’s goals; it’s entirely possible that only Marco Rubio, nominee for secretary of state, will be approved on the first day of the Trump administration. Matt Gaetz, the controversial pick for attorney general, already saw his nomination collapse. Others could too, depending how they fare in their hearings.

Mr Trump will move rapidly; the question is whether his policy changes stick. The beginning of the end of the Trump era will kick off with large-scale deportations on Tuesday, once the inauguration festivities have come to a close. Once the initial shock and awe have worn off, it will be on Mr Trump to fight tougher battles of persuasion to create a real legacy.

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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