President Donald Trump on March 25 signed an executive order mandating that all federal departments and agencies end their use of paper checks and switch to electronic payments by Sept. 30.
The U.S. Treasury now has about six months to phase out the paper checks it uses for various purposes, including tax refunds and the roughly 456,000 Social Security checks that are mailed monthly.
The executive order will “modernize how the government handles money, switching from old-fashioned paper-based payments to fast, secure electronic payments,” the administration said in a fact sheet on the order.
“Paper-based payments, such as checks and money orders, impose unnecessary costs, delays, and risks of fraud, lost payments, theft, and inefficiencies,” the White House said.
Under the order, all government departments and agencies will have to issue disbursements via electronic transfer methods, like direct deposit, debit or credit card payments, digital wallets and real-time transfers.
Consumers will have until then to set up an online bank account or some form of digital payment option, with limited exceptions for those who do not have access to banking services or electronic payment systems.
“We welcome President Trump’s executive order mandating that the federal government cease issuing paper checks for all disbursements, including government benefits and tax refunds,” Rob Nichols, president and CEO of the American Bankers Association said in a statement. “Despite a continued decline in business and consumer use of checks, check fraud has continued to rise.”
Check fraud, mail theft and identity scams have exploded in recent years, according to Haywood Talcove, CEO of LexisNexis Risk Solutions’ government group. A 2024 report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office estimated that the federal government could lose between $233 billion and $521 billion a year to fraud.
“Checks aren’t safe anymore,” Talcove said. “It’s where the criminal groups are feasting.”
As part of the executive order, payments made to the federal government — such as fees, fines, loans and tax refunds — must also be made electronically.
With significant advancements in security — thanks to authentication, monitoring and data encryption — retailers’ and consumers’ shift to contactless and digital payment methods will only continue to grow, accelerating the move toward a “check zero” world, according to Scott Anchin, vice president of operational risk and payments policy for the Independent Community Bankers of America.
However, there are still certain groups that rely on paper checks, including some of the nation’s most vulnerable populations such as social security beneficiaries and those who receive rental assistance, or Temporary Assistance for Needy Families.
Check writers generally skew older and are likely at the margins of the banking community, according to Anchin. Americans over the age of 55 were most likely to write checks every month, the survey from GoBankingRates found.
But these groups are also most at risk of being targeted by scammers, Talcove said. “The elderly are significantly disadvantaged by the antiquated systems and you have to get them into digital payments.”
But back then, “everyday people didn’t have checking accounts, that was for rich people,” Stephen Quinn, professor of economics at Texas Christian University and co-author of the Atlanta Fed’s report, previously told CNBC. “It wasn’t until after World War II that checking accounts were a common thing.”
Postwar prosperity greatly expanded the use of checking accounts to middle-class households, making checks the most widely used noncash payment method in the U.S., according to the Atlanta Fed.
Personal checks continued to gain steam until the mid-1990s, when credit and debit cards largely took over. Since 2000, check-writing has plummeted by nearly 75%, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Despite the rapid decline, “a form of payment with a thousand-year history is unlikely to vanish overnight,” the Atlanta Fed report said.
And yet, today’s young adults are increasingly eschewing the traditional banking and credit infrastructure altogether in favor of peer-to-peer payment apps.
Quinn said his students rely almost exclusively on digital wallet payments such as Apple Pay, Venmo and Zelle — hardly anyone carries cash, and it’s likely that few even know how to write a check.
Still, there remains a place for personal checks, Quinn said.
“The paper check might linger where it began, at the high end — for large one-off payments,” he said, such as charitable donations or real estate transactions. “In this way, checks might hold on for some time.”
Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan raised its odds for a U.S. and global recession to 60%, by year end, up from 40% previously.
“Disruptive U.S. policies has been recognized as the biggest risk to the global outlook all year,” J.P. Morgan strategists said in a research note on Thursday.
Allianz’s Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian also warned on Friday that the risk of a U.S. recession “has become uncomfortably high.”
Even though stocks took a beating on Friday, “we advise them to focus on fundamentals and what they can control, which means maintaining a strong cash reserve and discipline around cash flow so that they can stay in the market and feel confident about taking advantage of buying opportunities,” said Boneparth, a member of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council.
Recession or not, maintaining a consistent cash flow and investment strategy is key, other experts say.
“The best way to manage these moments is to maximize your current and future selves is to block out noise that doesn’t apply to your plan,” said CFP Preston Cherry, founder and president of Concurrent Financial Planning in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
Letting emotions get in the way is one of “the greatest threats to life and money plans,” said Cherry, who is also a member of the CNBC Advisor Council.
When it comes to volatility tolerance, sharp drops in the market are to be expected, the advisors say.
“The stock market is unpredictable, but historically, there’s a trend in how the market recovers,” Cherry said.
“In years with market corrections and pullbacks, these are the worst days, which are followed by the best days,” he added.
In fact, the 10 best trading days by percentage gain for the S&P 500 over the past three decades all occurred during recessions, often in close proximity to the worst days, according to a Wells Fargo analysis published last year.
“Being out of the market and missing the best days and cycles after recessions significantly hurt portfolios in the long run,” Cherry said.
Boneparth said his clients also “know volatility and uncertainty is part of the game and, most importantly, know not to sell into chaos.”
As U.S. markets continue to suffer steep declines in the wake of the Trump administration’s new tariff policies, you may be wondering what the next best move is when it comes to your retirement portfolio and other investments.
Behavioral finance experts warn now is the worst time to make any drastic moves.
“It is dangerous for you — unless you can read what is going to happen next in the political world, in the economic world — to make a decision,” said Meir Statman, a professor of finance at Santa Clara University.
“It is more likely to be driven by emotion and, in this case, emotion that is going to act against you rather than for you,” said Statman, who is author of the book, “A Wealth of Well-Being: A Holistic Approach to Behavioral Finance.”
That may sound easier said than done when headlines show stocks are sliding into bear market territory while J.P. Morgan is raising the chances of a recession this year to 60% from 40%.
“When the market drops, we have sort of a herd instinct,” said Bradley Klontz, a psychologist, certified financial planner and managing principal of YMW Advisors in Boulder, Colorado. Klontz is also a member of the CNBC FA Council.
That survival instinct to run towards safety and away from danger dates back to humans’ hunter gatherer days, Klontz said. Back then, following those cues was necessary for survival.
But when it comes to investing, those impulses can backfire, he said.
“It’s an internal panic, and we’re just sort of wired to sell at the absolute worst times,” Klontz said.
The overall impact on households will vary based on their purchasing habits. But most families — especially lower earners — are likely to feel the pain to some degree, economists said.
According to an analysis by the Budget Lab at Yale University, the average household will lose $3,800 of purchasing power per year as a result of all President Donald Trump‘s tariff policies — and retaliatory trade actions by other nations — announced as of Wednesday.
That’s a “meaningful amount,” said Ernie Tedeschi, the lab’s director of economics and former chief economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the Biden administration.
The analysis doesn’t include the 34% retaliatory tariff China announced Friday on all U.S. exports, set to take effect April 10. The U.S. exported nearly $144 billion worth of goods to China in 2024, the third-largest market for U.S. goods behind Canada and Mexico, according to the Census Bureau.
Under the “reciprocal tariffs” Trump announced Wednesday, Chinese imports will face a 34% duty. Goods from Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh face tariffs of 46%, 44% and 37%, respectively.
Taking into account the pre-existing tariffs on China totaling 20%, Beijing now faces an effective tariff rate of at least 54%.
“The tariffs are disastrous for the apparel industry worldwide, but especially for smaller countries with highly specialized garment manufacturing,” Green said.
A lot of clothing production has moved overseas over the last 50 years, Tedeschi said, but it’s “very unlikely” clothing and textile manufacturing will return to the U.S. from Asia in the wake of the new tariffs.
“People will still import clothing to a large extent, and they’ll have to eat the price increase,” he said.
“Rising car prices are already a major pain point for the vast majority of Americans who live in an area where they need a car to get to work, school, their kids’ activities, and medical appointments,” said Erin Witte, director of consumer protection for the Consumer Federation of America.
“These tariffs will make it much worse, and will significantly reduce Americans’ choices about what car they want to buy,” she said.
Tariffs on specific commodities like aluminum and steel affect consumers indirectly, since the materials are used to manufacture a swath of consumer goods.
White House spokesman Kush Desai pushed back on analyses that prices will spike because of Trump’s tariff policy.
“Chicken Little ‘expert’ predictions didn’t quite pan out during President Trump’s first term, and they’re not going to pan out during his second term when President Trump again restores American Greatness from Main Street to Wall Street,” Desai said in an e-mailed statement.
Trump’s second-term tariffs are orders of magnitude larger than his first term, however.
The first Trump administration put tariffs on about $380 billion worth of goods in 2018 and 2019, according to the Tax Foundation. The tariffs so far imposed in Trump’s second term affect more than $2.5 trillion of U.S. imports, it said.
There’s also evidence that the first-term tariffs raised prices for some consumers.
Retail prices for the typical washing machine and clothing dryer rose by about 12% each — about $86 and $92 per unit, respectively — due to 2018 tariffs on imports of washing machines, according to a study by economists at the Federal Reserve Board and University of Chicago. The increased cost to consumers totaled $1.5 billion a year, the study found.