Investors can typically start withdrawing funds from retirement accounts without penalty at age 59½.
But there’s a big risk for younger retirees or near-retirees who experience stock market downturns just before or as they start tapping accounts.
Withdrawing from your portfolio when the stock market drops could mean selling more assets for the same amount of cash. As a result, you’re left with fewer investments to capture future growth when the market rebounds.
It’s the biggest issue for younger retirees with decades of living expenses to cover from their nest egg, experts say.
Here are some ways to mitigate your sequence of returns risk, according to financial advisors.
Diversify your portfolio
As retirement approaches, it’s important to adjust portfolio allocations from heavy concentrations in higher-risk assets to less volatile investments like bonds, experts say. The right mix may depend on several factors, including your risk tolerance, goals and life expectancy.
“Diversification among several different asset classes can help make volatility less pronounced,” Lyon said.
Diversification among several different asset classes can help make volatility less pronounced.
Collin Lyon
Wealth strategy advisor at Anderson Financial Strategies
Build a ‘war chest’ to fund living expenses
You can avoid selling assets in a down market by keeping a six-month emergency fund and a “war chest” to cover living expenses, according to CFP Jonathan Bednar II, a wealth advisor at Paradigm Wealth Partners in Knoxville, Tennessee.
For Bednar’s clients, the war chest includes five years of expenses in fixed-income assets — typically in a bond or certificate of deposit ladder — so retirees can “weather any market volatility,” when the sequence risk is highest, he said.
Opt for a flexible withdrawal rate
Flexible withdrawals are another way to safeguard your portfolio from sequence risk, experts say.
“Instead of withdrawing a fixed percentage, the rate can be adjusted based on market performance,” explained Orlando-based CFP Brad Brescia with Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo.
Reducing withdrawals during years of negative returns “can help preserve the portfolio’s core,” he added. However, some retirement accounts eventually have required withdrawals.
Then Social Security Commissioner Martin O’Malley testifies before the Senate Committee on the Budget on Sept. 11, 2024.
Anna Rose Layden | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Social Security has never missed a benefit payment since the program first began sending individuals monthly benefits more than eight decades ago.
But the recent actions at the U.S. Social Security Administration by Elon Musk‘s so-calledDepartment of Government Efficiency are putting monthly benefit checks for more than 72.5 million Americans at risk, former commissioner and former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley told CNBC.com.
“Ultimately, you’re going to see the system collapse and an interruption of benefits,” O’Malley said. “I believe you will see that within the next 30 to 90 days.”
Ahead of any interruption in benefits, “people should start saving now,” O’Malley said.
The Social Security Administration uses multiple systems and technologies that Elon Musk has criticized for leading to errors. As commissioner, O’Malley told Congress the agency needed more funding for IT modernization.
O’Malley said DOGE leaders are now making changes at the agency, and significant staff cuts have already led to system outages. Those intermittent IT outages may happen more frequently and for more extended periods of time until there is a “system collapse and an interruption of benefits,” he said.
Neither the Social Security Administration nor the White House responded to requests for comment by press time.
Social Security Administration leadership upheaval
The Department of Government Efficiency, also known as DOGE, is not a federal department. And Musk, whom President Donald Trump brought on board to implement DOGE, is not an elected official.
Since its establishment, DOGE has looked to slash spending at federal government agencies.
The cuts have led to leadership upheaval, with the recent resignation of acting commissioner Michelle King following a reported disagreement over DOGE’s access to sensitive data. O’Malley resigned from the Social Security Administration in November to run for chairman of the Democratic National Committee, a race which he lost to Minnesota Democrat Ken Martin.
Trump has nominated Frank Bisignano, CEO of financial-technology company Fiserv, to serve as the new commissioner of the Social Security Administration. Bisignano has yet to sit for Senate confirmation hearings.
In the interim, Lee Dudek, who first joined the agency in 2009, has been appointed acting commissioner.
Earlier this month, Dudek posted on LinkedIn that he had been placed on administrative leave from the agency for helping DOGE representatives, The Wall Street Journal reported on Feb. 20.
“Our continuing priority is paying beneficiaries the right amount at the right time, and providing other critical services people rely on from us,” Dudek said in a Feb. 19 statement about his appointment.
Whose benefits may be most at risk
Yet experts say the benefits Americans rely on could be at risk based on the Trump administration’s overhaul of the agency.
“The American public needs to understand that one of their major social safety nets is in dire jeopardy,” said Jill Hornick, a union official at the American Federation of Government Employees Local 1395, which primarily represents Social Security offices in Illinois.
“It’ll take a while for the effects to be felt, but they’re coming,” Hornick said, predicting what will happen to Social Security is going to be “far worse” than the planned cuts to Medicaid.
For people who are already receiving Social Security benefits, most of that is automated and may not be affected, she said. However, processing new claims — whether it be for retirement or disability benefits — may take longer since those cannot be processed without Social Security employees, she said.
On Thursday, the Social Security Administration sent a notice to employees that gives them until March 14 to decide whether to take an early buyout. Unlike a previous January offer, this now includes service employees, and staffing reductions in that area may impact how quickly the agency processes benefit claims and provides other services, Hornick said.
For example, if a woman files for a survivor benefit after her husband passes away, she needs to provide a copy of her marriage license. A Social Security employee then needs to code the system to verify they have seen that document and the applicant is eligible for benefits, Hornick said.
“Not everybody can do things electronically,” particularly the older adults and disabled individuals who the Social Security Administration serves, said Maria Freese, senior legislative representative at the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.
“If you don’t have people to run an agency that requires hands-on customer service, then of course there’s a risk that you could end up with benefits being either denied or interrupted,” Freese said.
Office closures may reduce access to services
The DOGE savings web page has a list of about 45 Social Security locations where leases will be terminated, according to Rich Couture, spokesperson for AFGE SSA General Committee, a union that represents 42,000 Social Security employees nationally.
The list provides little information on the uses for the locations that are being closed. Based on the square footage listed, they may be sites used to conduct in-person hearings for disability benefits, Couture said. In one case, the location seems to be a busy New York state field office that provides general services, he said.
“If they’re going to close these offices that are busy in highly populated areas, it would suggest to me that there’s no office in this country that would be safe from having a lease terminated, especially in rural areas,” Couture said.
In a recent statement, Rep. John Larson, D-Conn., said the moves are a “backdoor benefit cut.”
“Let me be clear — laying off half of the workforce at the Social Security Administration and shuttering field offices will mean the delay, disruption and denial of benefits,” Larson said.
In a statement to CNBC.com earlier this week, the Social Security Administration said it has not set any reduction targets, in response to reports it plans to cut 50% of its employees.
As a union, AFGE has been issuing bargaining demands in response to the agency’s recent decisions and plans to enforce employee rights through other methods as necessary, spokesperson Couture said.
While many lawsuits have been filed, it will take time to work through them, especially as the courts are now being flooded with cases tied to the Trump administration’s actions, said Nancy Altman, president of advocacy organization Social Security Works.
The biggest results may come from the pressure American voters could put on elected officials, former SSA commissioner O’Malley said.
“I think many people throughout the country are going to start bringing a lot of heat to members of Congress who have been facilitating, supporting, aiding and abetting the breaking of their Social Security and the interruption of benefits that they work their whole lives to earn,” he said. “These are earned benefits.”
The latest selloff presents a tax planning opportunity, including a “loophole” that could go away amid Congressional tax negotiations, according to Andrew Gordon, a tax attorney, certified public accountant and president of Gordon Law Group.
The strategy, known as “tax-loss harvesting,” allows you to offset profitable investments by selling declining assets in a brokerage or other taxable account. Once your losses exceed gains, you can subtract up to $3,000 per year from regular income and carry excess losses into future years.
Some investors wait until December for tax-loss harvesting, which can be a mistake because asset volatility, particularly for digital currency, happens throughout the year, experts say.
“You should look for these opportunities continually and take advantage of them as they occur,” Gordon said.
You should look for these opportunities continually and take advantage of them as they occur.
Andrew Gordon
President of Gordon Law Group
The crypto wash sale ‘loophole’
When selling investments, there’s a wash sale rule, which blocks you from claiming a loss if you repurchase a “substantially identical” asset within a 30-day window before or after the sale.
But currently, the wash sale rule doesn’t apply to cryptocurrency, which can be beneficial for long-term digital currency investors, experts say.
“If you sell, for instance, bitcoin at a loss today and then buy it back tomorrow, you still have your loss on the books,” Gordon said. “This is an extremely effective strategy for crypto investors because they don’t have to exit their position.”
However, the strategy could disappear in the future as Congressional Republicans seek ways to fund President Donald Trump‘s tax agenda.
In the meantime, “the IRS gives us this loophole. We may as well take it,” Adam Markowitz, an enrolled agent at Luminary Tax Advisors in Windermere, Florida, previously told CNBC.
Of course, you should always consider your investing goals and timeline before implementing the tax strategy.
A worker stocks eggs at a grocery store in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 12, 2025.
Tom Williams | CQ-Roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images
Whether it’s a dozen eggs or a new car, Americans are having a hard time adjusting to current prices.
Nearly all Americans report experiencing some form of “sticker shock,” regardless of income, according to a recent report by Wells Fargo.
In fact, 90% of adults said they are still surprised by the cost of some goods, such as a bottle of water, a tank of gas, dinner out or concert tickets, and said that the actual costs are between 55% and 200% higher than what they expected depending on the item.
Many Americans are still cutting back on spending, making financial choices and delaying some life plans, the Wells Fargo report also found. The firm polled more than 3,600 consumers in the fall.
“The value of the dollar and what it is providing may not be as predictable anymore,” said Michael Liersch, head of advice and planning at Wells Fargo. As a result, “consumer behaviors are shifting.”
Still, adjusting to a new normal takes time, he added: “Habit formation does take a while. Next year what you can imagine seeing is consumers being a little less surprised or shocked by prices and adapting to the current situation to create that goals-based plan.”
Some change is already apparent. Although credit card debt recently notched a fresh high, the rate of growth slowed, which indicates that shoppers are starting to lean less on credit cards to make ends meet in a typical month, according to Charlie Wise, TransUnion’s senior vice president of global research and consulting.
“After years of very high inflation, they are kind of figuring it out,” Wise said. “They’ve adjusted their baseline for what things cost right now.”
But with President Donald Trump‘s proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico set to take effect in March, there is also the possibility that prices will rise even further in the months ahead.
Consumers fear inflation will pick up
Mexico and Canada tariffs could put pressure on some consumer staples, experts say. That includes already high grocery prices, which are up 28% over the last five years, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index sank in February, notching the largest monthly drop since August 2021. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index similarly found that Americans largely fear that inflation will flare up again.
A recent CreditCards.com survey found that 23% of Americans expect to worsen or go into credit card debt this year, in part because they are making more purchases ahead of higher tariffs.
How to battle sticker shock
Consumer savings expert Andrea Woroch recommends setting a spending plan and tracking expenses. That helps you pinpoint wasteful purchases and those where prices are accelerating and take steps to save.
“Write out all your expenses currently from those essentials and the wants, figuring out an average monthly spend for fluctuating categories,” she said. “Once you have it all listed out, you can begin hacking away at unnecessary purchases or at least set goals for reducing in those nonessential categories.”
Identify triggers that lead to impulse purchases to help dodge them in the future, Woroch also said. “If you can’t resist a sale, then unsubscribe from store newsletters and turn off push notifications in deal apps.”
Ultimately, being more in control of your spending will “reduce the stress that comes with worry about how you’re going to afford higher prices,” Woroch said.