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This week provided reminder that inflation isn’t going away anytime soon

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Gas prices are displayed at a gas station on March 12, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. 

Scott Olson | Getty Images

From consumer and wholesale prices to longer-term public expectations, reports this week served up multiple reminders this week that inflation isn’t going away anytime soon.

Data across the board showed pressures increasing at a faster-than-expected pace, causing concern that inflation could be more durable than policymakers had anticipated.

The bad news began Monday when a New York Federal Reserve survey showed the consumer expectations over the longer term had accelerated in February. It continued Tuesday with news that consumer prices rose 3.2% from a year ago, and then culminated Thursday with a release indicating that pipeline pressures at the wholesale level also are heating up.

Those reports will provide a lot for the Fed to think about when it convenes Tuesday for a two-day policy meeting where it will decide on the current level of interest rates and offer an updated look on where it sees things heading longer term.

“If the data keep rolling in like this, it becomes increasingly difficult to justify a pre-emptive rate cut,” wrote Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. Taken together, the numbers show “the great disinflation has stalled and looks to be reversing.”

The latest jolt on inflation came Thursday when the Labor Department reported that the producer price index, a forward-looking measure of pipeline inflation at the wholesale level, showed a 0.6% increase in February. That was double the Dow Jones estimate and pushed the 12-month level up 1.6%, the biggest move since September 2023.

Earlier in the week, the department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said the consumer price index, a widely followed gauge of goods and services costs in the marketplace, increased 0.4% on the month and 3.2% from a year ago, the latter number slightly higher than forecast.

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While surging energy prices contributed substantially to the increase in both inflation figures, there also was evidence of broader pressures from items such as airline fares, used vehicles and beef.

In fact, at a time when the focus has shifted to services inflation, goods prices leaped 1.2% in the PPI reading, the biggest increase since August 2023.

“There continue to be signs in PPI data that the disinflation in goods prices is largely coming to an end,” Citigroup economist Veronica Clark wrote after the report’s release.

Taken together, the stubbornly high prices appear to have taken their toll on both consumer expectations and behavior. While substantially lower than its mid-2022 peak, inflation has proved resilient despite the Fed’s 11 rate hikes totaling 5.25 percentage points and its moves to cut its bond holdings by nearly $1.4 trillion.

The New York Fed survey showed that three- and five-year inflation expectations respectively moved up to 2.7% and 2.9%. While such surveys often can be especially sensitive to gas prices, this one showed energy expectations relatively constant and reflected doubt from consumers that the Fed will achieve its 2% mandate anytime soon.

On a policy level, that could mean the Fed may hold rates higher for longer than the market expects. Traders in the fed funds futures market earlier this year had been pricing in as many as seven cuts totaling 1.75 percentage points; that since has eased to three cuts.

Along with the surprisingly strong inflation data, consumers are showing signs of letting up on their massive shopping spree over the past few years. Retail sales increased 0.6%, but that was below the estimate and came after a downwardly revised pullback of 1.1% in January, according to numbers adjusted seasonally but not for inflation.

Over the past year, sales increased 1.5%, or 1.7 percentage points below the headline inflation rate and 2.3 points below the core rate that excludes food and energy.

Investors will get a look at how policymakers feel when the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee convenes next week. The FOMC will release both its rate decision — there’s virtually no chance of a change in either direction — as well as its revised outlook for longer-term rates, gross domestic product, inflation and unemployment.

Blitz, the TS Lombard economist, said the Fed is correct to take a patient approach, after officials said in recent weeks that they need more evidence from the data before moving to cut rates.

“The Fed has time to watch and wait,” he said, adding that “odds of the next move being a hike [are] greater than zero.”

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Checks and Balance newsletter: The election of Pope Leo XIV goes beyond American politics

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Checks and Balance newsletter: The election of Pope Leo XIV goes beyond American politics

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Germany’s economy chief Reiche sets out roadmap to end turmoil

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09 May 2025, Bavaria, Gmund Am Tegernsee: Katherina Reiche (CDU), Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, takes part in the Ludwig Erhard Summit. Representatives from business, politics, science and the media are taking part in the three-day summit. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa (Photo by Sven Hoppe/picture alliance via Getty Images)

Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Germany needs to take more risks and boost its stagnant economy with a decade of investment in infrastructure, German Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Katherina Reiche said Friday.

“The next decade will be the decade of infrastructure investments in bridges, in energy infrastructure, in storage, in maritime infrastructure… telecommunication. And for this, we need speed. We need speed and investments, and we need private capital,” Reiche told CNBC’s Annette Weisbach on the sidelines of the Tegernsee summit.

While 10% of investments could be taken care of with public money, the remaining 90% relied on the private sector, she said.

The newly minted economy minister also addressed regulation coming from Brussels, warning that it could hinder companies from investments and start-ups from growing if it is too restrictive. Germany has had to learn that investments comes with risks “and we have to kind of be open for taking more risks,” she said.

Watch CNBC's full interview with German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche

“This country needs an economic turnaround. After two years of recessions the previous government had to announce again [a] zero growth year for 2025 and we really have to work on this. So on the top of the agenda is an investor booster,” the minister added.

Lowering energy prices, stabilizing the security of energy supply and reducing bureaucracy were among the key points on the agenda, Reiche said.

Germany’s economy contracted slightly on an annual basis in both 2023 and 2024 and the quarterly gross domestic product has been flipping between growth and contraction for over two years now, just about managing to avoid a technical recession. Preliminary data for the first quarter of 2025 showed a 0.2% expansion.

Forecasts do not suggest much of a reprieve from the sluggishness, with the now former German government last month saying it still expects the economy to stagnate this year.

This is despite a major fiscal U-turn announced earlier this year, which included changes to the country’s long-standing debt rules to allow for additional defense spending and a 500-billion-euro ($562.4 billion) infrastructure package.

Several of Germany’s key industries are under pressure. The auto industry for example is dealing with stark competition from China and now faces tariffs, while issues in housebuilding and infrastructure have been linked to higher costs and bureaucratic hurdles.

Trade is also a key pillar for the German economy and therefore uncertainty from U.S. President Donald Trump’s changing tariff policies are weighing heavily on the outlook.

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Andrew Bailey on why UK-U.S. trade deal won’t end uncertainty

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Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey attends the central bank’s Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Bank of England, in the City of London, on May 8, 2025.

Carlos Jasso | Afp | Getty Images

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told CNBC on Thursday that the U.K. was heading for more economic uncertainty, despite the country being the first to strike a trade agreement with the U.S. under President Donald Trump’s controversial tariff regime.

“The tariff and trade situation has injected more uncertainty into the situation… There’s more uncertainty now than there was in the past,” Bailey told CNBC in an interview.

“A U.K.-U.S. trade agreement is very welcome in that sense, very welcome. But the U.K. is a very open economy,” he continued.

That means that the impact from tariffs on the U.K. economy comes not just from its own trade relationship with Washington, but also from those of the U.S. and the rest of the world, he said.

“I hope that what we’re seeing on the U.K.-U.S. trade side will be the first of many, and it will be repeated by a whole series of trade agreements, but we have to see that happen of course, and where it actually ends up.”

“Because, of course, we are looking at tariff levels that are probably higher than they were beforehand.”

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In Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report released Thursday, the word “uncertainty” was used 41 times across its 97 pages, up from 36 times in February, according to a CNBC tally.

The U.K. central bank cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Thursday, taking its key rate to 4.25%. The decision was highly divided among the seven members of its Monetary Policy Committee, with five voting for the 25 basis point cut, two voting to hold rates and two voting to reduce by a larger 50 basis points.

Bailey said that while some analysts had perceived the rate decision as more hawkish than expected — in other words, leaning toward holding rates elevated than slashing them rapidly — he was not surprised by the close vote.

“What it reflects is that there are two sides, there are risks on both sides here,” he told CNBC.

“We could get a much more severe weakness of demand than we were expecting, that could then pass through to a weaker outlook for inflation than we were expecting.”

“There’s a risk on the other side that we could get some combination of more persistence in the inflation effects that are gradually working their way through the system,” such as in wages and energy, while “supply capacity in the economy is weaker,” he said.

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