Chinese stocks wrapped up a momentous week marked by a $1.4 trillion debt swap program that fell short of many investors’ calls for more direct government support. For many, the reaction among investors only reinforced the need to look at longer-term opportunities in individual stocks that haven’t changed. The Ministry of Finance signaled at a closely watched press conference Friday that more fiscal support could come next year , while in the near term it focused on addressing local government debt. The relatively muted measures come as China gears up for heightened trade relations with the U.S. under President-elect Donald Trump, who has threatened to impose high tariffs on imported goods. Through it all, the CSI 300 stock index in Shanghair managed to rise nearly 6.6% last week, while the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rallied 3.2%. Stopping further weakness On a macroeconomic level, China is trying to ensure inflation and employment don’t deteriorate further, said Liqian Ren, leader of quantitative investment at WisdomTree. While Ren doesn’t expect a return to rapid growth, she is watching how Chinese companies are able to build up their brands and charge a premium, maturing from models that previously competed only on price. “So I think consumer companies like Anta , I think not many people have understood outside China, but it is really becoming the world’s leading sportswear company,” Ren said. “I think they are also going to make a global play soon. But not many Americans know about the brand.” But if Anta continues on its present path, perhaps in 10 years consumers will regard the company the same as “Adidas or other so called foreign sports brands,” Ren said. “That’s one thing that I am personally paying attention to.” Hong Kong-listed Anta sells sportswear under its own brand while owning Fila and high-end brand Descente, among others. The company said in October that Anta-brand retail sales for the third quarter rose by the mid-single digits from a year ago, while that of Fila weakened and other brands surged by as much as 50%. Anta shares are up 18% so far in 2024. China’s efforts to rival foreign brands have not diminished, regardless of the slowdown. Baidu is reportedly scheduled Tuesday to release its own artificial intelligence-connected glasses, vying with Meta’s RayBans product. Xpeng expansion Electric car startup Xpeng in the past week announced its own humanoid robot , and a new $26,000 car called the P7+ that’s already racked up more than 30,000 preorders for deliveries due to start this month. The products are largely only going to be available in China, at least initially. “For Chinese EVs, the door is now closed, and re-shoring is impractical,” Macquarie analysts said in a Nov. 7 report. “Our top pick is XPeng, a China pure play.” “XPeng has no exposure to the U.S. market and no current plans to enter the market,” the analysts said. “Domestic volume has room to ramp quickly, led by new competitive models like the M03 and P7+. The successful launch of the M03 has helped to alleviate investor concerns about supply chain management and product competitiveness.” “Upcoming catalysts, such as the pure-vision ADAS M03 and the launch of a hybrid system car could benefit from domestic confidence/consumption recovery and are unaffected by geopolitical events,” the Macquarie analysts said. About half of Xpeng’s 20,000-plus deliveries in each of the past two months have come from its lower-priced Mona M03 car. In the consumer sector, Macquarie’s top pick is Yum China , which operates Pizza Hut and KFC in China. “YUMC is our top idea in the consumer sector given that it is a pure domestic market play,” the analysts said. “The company’s strategy shift towards franchisee stores and new store format K COFFEE as well as Pizza Hut WoW would be a secular growth driver, which can decouple from geopolitical risk.” Yum China has ramped up shareholder return targets to $4.5 billion in 2026 from $3 billion in 2024, they added. Yum China on Nov. 4 reported third-quarter earnings, showing operating profit grew by 15% year-on-year to $371 million. Xpeng is due to release quarterly results on Nov. 19. In the week ahead, internet giants Tencent and Alibaba both report earnings. The central government is scheduled Friday Nov. 15 to release retail sales and industrial data for October. “You have to be very willing to suffer the negative sentiment to invest in China,” Ren said. There are often “long stretch[es] of negative sentiment which really test a person’s risk-taking.” But she also highlighted that Chinese stocks can serve as a hedge to other equity markets. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Investors may want to consider adding exposure to the world’s second-largest emerging market.
According to EMQQ Global founder Kevin Carter, India’s technology sector is extremely attractive right now.
“It’s the tip of the spear of growth [in e-commerce] … not just in emerging markets, but on the planet,” Carter told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.
His firm is behind the INQQ The India Internet ETF, which was launched in 2022. The India Internet ETF is up almost 21% so far this year, as of Friday’s close.
‘DoorDash of India’
One of Carter’s top plays is Zomato, which he calls “the DoorDash of India.” Zomato stock is up 128% this year.
“One of the reasons Zomato has done so well this year is because the quick commerce business blanket has exceeded expectations,” Carter said. “It now looks like it’s going to be the biggest business at Zomato.”
Carter noted his bullishness comes from a population that is just starting to go online.
“They’re getting their first-ever computer today basically,” he said, “You’re giving billions of people super computers in their pocket internet access.”
“I think the best case scenario is we’re going to continue to see mortgage rates hover around six and a half to 7%,” said Jordan Jackson, a global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “So unfortunately for those homeowners who are looking for a bit of a reprieve on the mortgage rate side, that may not come to fruition,” Jordan said in an interview with CNBC.
Mortgage rates can be influenced by Fed policy. But the rates are more closely tied to long-term borrowing rates for government debt. The 10-year Treasury note yield has been increasing in recent months as investors consider more expansionary fiscal policies that may come from Washington in 2025. This, combined with signals sent from the market for mortgage-backed securities, determine the rates issued within new mortgages.
Economists at Fannie Mae say the Fed’s management of its mortgage-backed securities portfolio may contribute to today’s mortgage rates.
In the pandemic, the Fed bought huge amounts of assets, including mortgage-backed securities, to adjust demand and supply dynamics within the bond market. Economists also refer to the technique as “quantitative easing.”
Quantitative easing can reduce the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields, which leads to cheaper loan terms for home buyers. It can also provide opportunities for owners looking to refinance their mortgages. The Fed’s use of this technique in the pandemic brought mortgages rates to record lows in 2021.
“They were extra aggressive in 2021 with buying mortgage-backed securities. So, the [quantitative easing] was probably ill-advised at the time.” said Matthew Graham, COO of Mortgage News Daily.
In 2022, the Federal Reserve kicked off plans to reduce the balance of its holdings, primarily by allowing those assets to mature and “roll-off” of its balance sheet. This process is known as “quantitative tightening,” and it may add upward pressure on the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields.
“I think that’s one of the reasons the mortgage rates are still going in the wrong direction from the Federal Reserve’s standpoint,” said George Calhoun, director of the Hanlon Financial Systems Center at Stevens Institute of Technology.
Jason Wilk, the CEO of digital banking service Dave, remembers the absolute low point in his brief career as head of a publicly-traded firm.
It was June 2023, and shares of his company had recently dipped below $5 apiece. Desperate to keep Dave afloat, Wilk found himself at a Los Angeles conference for micro-cap stocks, where he pitched investors on tiny $5,000 stakes in his firm.
“I’m not going to lie, this was probably the hardest time of my life,” Wilk told CNBC. “To go from being a $5 billion company to $50 million in 12 months, it was so freaking hard.”
But in the months that followed, Dave turned profitable and consistently topped Wall Street analyst expectations for revenue and profit. Now, Wilk’s company is the top gainer for 2024 among U.S. financial stocks, with a 934% year-to-date surge through Thursday.
The fintech firm, which makes money by extending small loans to cash-strapped Americans, is emblematic of a larger shift that’s still in its early stages, according to JMP Securities analyst Devin Ryan.
Investors had dumped high-flying fintech companies in 2022 as a wave of unprofitable firms like Dave went public via special purpose acquisition companies. The environment turned suddenly, from rewarding growth at any cost to deep skepticism of how money-losing firms would navigate rising interest rates as the Federal Reserve battled inflation.
Now, with the Fed easing rates, investors have rushed back into financial firms of all sizes, including alternative asset managers like KKR and credit card companies like American Express, the top performers among financial stocks this year with market caps of at least $100 billion and $200 billion, respectively.
Big investment banks including Goldman Sachs, the top gainer among the six largest U.S. banks, have also surged this year on hope for a rebound in Wall Street deals activity.
Dave, a fintech firm taking on big banks like JPMorgan Chase, is a standout stock this year.
But it’s fintech firms like Dave and Robinhood, the commission-free trading app, that are the most promising heading into next year, Ryan said.
Robinhood, whose shares have surged 190% this year, is the top gainer among financial firms with a market cap of at least $10 billion.
“Both Dave and Robinhood went from losing money to being incredibly profitable firms,” Ryan said. “They’ve gotten their house in order by growing their revenues at an accelerating rate while managing expenses at the same time.”
While Ryan views valuations for investment banks and alternative asset manages as approaching “stretched” levels, he said that “fintechs still have a long way to run; they are early in their journey.”
Financials broadly had already begun benefitting from the Fed easing cycle when the election victory of Donald Trump last month intensified interest in the sector. Investors expect Trump will ease regulation and allow for more innovation with government appointments including ex-PayPal executive and Silicon Valley investor David Sacks as AI and crypto czar.
Those expectations have boosted the shares of entrenched players like JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, but have had a greater impact on potential disruptors like Dave that could see even more upside from a looser regulatory environment.
Gas & groceries
Dave has built a niche among Americans underserved by traditional banks by offering fee-free checking and savings accounts.
It makes money mostly by extending small loans of around $180 each to help users “pay for gas and groceries” until their next paycheck, according to Wilk; Dave makes roughly $9 per loan on average.
Customers come out ahead by avoiding more expensive forms of credit from other institutions, including $35 overdraft fees charged by banks, he said. Dave, which is not a bank, but partners with one, does not charge late fees or interest on cash advances.
The company also offers a debit card, and interchange fees from transactions made by Dave customers will make up an increasing share of revenue, Wilk said.
While the fintech firm faces far less skepticism now than it did in mid-2023— of the seven analysts who track it, all rate the stock a “buy,” according to Factset — Wilk said the company still has more to prove.
“Our business is so much better now than we went public, but it’s still priced 60% below the IPO price,” he said. “Hopefully we can claw our way back.”