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Trump tax bill takes center stage as GOP debates cuts

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Congressional Republicans returning to Washington on Monday will tackle their toughest test yet, negotiating a massive tax bill package to deliver President Donald Trump a signature legislative victory.

Efforts to renew Trump’s landmark 2017 tax cuts and secure additional reductions he’s promised were temporarily sidelined while lawmakers worked to narrowly avert a government shutdown earlier this month.

The party can now shift its attention to the undertaking, aimed at cutting tax bills by trillions of dollars. The scope of that effort will require some difficult decisions and near unanimity as Republicans navigate narrow majorities in both chambers.

Republicans still must agree on the overall size of the package, which tax elements to include, and how — or if — to offset the cost, a controversial question that will pit the most ardent fiscal hawks against members seeking tax breaks.

Here’s a look at the challenges facing Republicans as they move on a critical legislative priority:

What’s the overall cost of the bill?

The action is centered in the Senate, where the first step is to decide on a topline figure for the bill.

House Republicans — in their version of the tax blueprint passed earlier this month — agreed to $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, paired with $2 trillion in spending reductions.

Both those figures have problems. Republicans have their eyes on cutting far more than $4.5 trillion in taxes. And cutting $2 trillion from the federal budget over a decade could mean making politically harmful cuts to popular programs like Medicaid.

But scaling up the tax break total, or downsizing the ambition for spending cuts, have the potential to spark the ire of House deficit hawks. Both chambers ultimately have to agree on those topline figures before the tax talks can advance.

What are the ways to offset that cost?

The realities of the math mean that Republicans have been looking for creative ways to offset the cost.

While certain factions of the party are demanding spending cuts, they can’t offset all their desired tax cuts by slashing the budget alone.

Republicans have discussed a small number of offsets — eliminating the carried interest tax break for hedge fund managers, expanding a tax on university endowments and limiting the amount of state and local taxes corporations can deduct.

They could include some of the cost savings from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency effort. Some conservatives are also demanding a repeal of green energy tax breaks signed into law by President Joe Biden.

Still, all of those combined would amount to just a fraction of the overall cost.

That’s led them to consider using a budget gimmick to claim that extending the 2017 tax cuts costs nothing — instead of the more than $4 trillion over a decade the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has estimated.

This untried accounting move known as using the “current policy baseline” rather than the “current law baseline” could let them count the renewal of the 2017 cuts as free, which gives them an additional $4.5 trillion — or whatever total the two chambers agree on — to reduce more taxes.

The difficulty in finding palatable ways to pay for the bill could stymie the Senate’s efforts on the budget outline, dragging work on the bill into the fall, said Erica York of the right-of-center Tax Foundation

What are the downsides of getting the tax cuts for ‘free’?

It’s not even clear that using current policy baseline is allowed under the Senate rules, something Republican aides have been discussing with the chamber’s rules keeper, parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough. 

Arcane Senate rules also mean that using this baseline to extend existing tax rates will mean that each provision will need to have a tiny tweak so it registers a “fiscal impact.” That could result in some messy outcomes in the code.

Budget watchdogs are vehemently opposed to getting creative with the budget baseline.

“It lets you lie about what you are doing,” said Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. “It will be a massive budget-buster over time.”

The Congressional Budget Office on Friday released new data that found a permanent extension of the tax cuts would explode the national debt, leading to debt held by the public to reach 250% of GDP by 2054.

There are also risks with bond investors. Debt markets are watching if Congress has embarked on a precedent-breaking spree by bulldozing Senate guardrails. 

“It basically tells financial markets and the bond markets we have really just given up on controlling deficits,” said Kent Smetters of the Penn Wharton Budget Model. 

Further complicating matters, CBO will issue a new estimate of the timing of a possible U.S. federal debt default. That has the potential to speed up — or delay — the tax bill. House Republicans have pushed to include raising the debt limit in the tax package, where their colleagues in the Senate are still deciding whether to combine the issues or vote on them separately.

What, exactly, are these tax cuts?

Republicans broadly agree that the heart of the package will be the extension of the 2017 cuts, which include rate cuts for individual taxpayers and deductions for small business owners.

Beyond that, the tax cut wish list is long and growing. Trump wants to end taxes on tips, overtime pay and Social Security benefits. He’s floated a lower corporate rate for companies that manufacture domestically and vowed to make car loans deductible.

One of the most politically volatile is expanding the state and local tax deduction, known as SALT. A group of House Republicans from high-tax states have vowed to block the bill unless it includes a substantial increase to the $10,000 cap on the write-off.

There are also demands for new tax breaks. Most Senate Republicans want to end the estate tax and some are seeking to expand Opportunity Zone tax benefits — capital gains breaks for people who invest in developing areas. 

“They are going to have to make some choices,” said PwC’s Rohit Kumar, a former top Senate GOP aide. “They will have to put in some revenue limits.” 

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Tech news: Karbon Practice Management evolves into Practice Intelligence

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Automation platform Quadient announced the acquisition of Serensia, a French electronic invoicing platform provider accredited by the French government as a Partner Dematerialization Platform (PDP). With ownership of a Peppol access point—a secure gateway for document exchange—Quadient can now offer a compliant, end-to-end e-invoicing solution to the millions of companies across Europe that will be required to transition to electronic invoicing under upcoming regulatory mandates. … Accounting solutions provider Sage announced a partnership with CPA.com which licenses select AICPA resources to train Sage Copilot, its generative AI assistant designed to support accountants and finance teams with authoritative, context-aware guidance. The announcement was made at Sage Future, the company’s flagship global customer event, held this week in Atlanta. … Small business accounting platform Xero announced that users who have an account with payments company Stripe can now use Tap To Pay on iPhone, enabling Xero customers in the US with a Stripe account to seamlessly and securely accept in-person contactless payments with their iPhone and the Xero Accounting app — no additional hardware or payment terminal needed. Tap to Pay on iPhone enables businesses to accept all forms of contactless payments, including contactless credit and debit cards, Apple Pay, and other digital wallets. … Trust and security compliance automation solutions provider Scytale announced the acquisition of AudITech, a provider of Sarbanes Oxley (SOX) IT General Controls (ITGC) automation solutions, which integrates with a company’s IT General Control system and audits all controls and populations daily. This acquisition will enable Scytale to offer security, privacy, and AI compliance automation for standards like SOC 2, ISO 27001, and now SOX ITGC in one platform. … Business aviation solutions provider MySky is acquiring the State Tax Guide from Jet Support Services Inc (JSSI), significantly expanding the capabilities of its MySky Tax solution. This acquisition offers users comprehensive, accurate, and up-to-date U.S. state aviation tax information, which will soon be seamlessly embedded within the platform. … Accounting firm-focused payments solutions provider CPACharge announced a new partnership with SafeSend, part of Thomson Reuters. This new partnership will make it easier for tax and accounting firms to get paid as clients receive their tax returns, as well as allows firms to embed CPACharge directly into the workflow for SafeSend One, SafeSend’s flagship product.

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Trump said to be open to lowering SALT cap in GOP tax bill

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President Donald Trump told Senate Republicans he is open to a state and local tax deduction cap lower than the $40,000 in the House-passed version of his giant tax bill, a person familiar with the matter said. 

Trump signaled his position in a meeting with Senate Finance Committee Republicans on Wednesday, and the comments added momentum to Senate GOP efforts to enact a lower SALT cap. 

That push has led to resistance from the House, with Speaker Mike Johnson telling Bloomberg TV Thursday he is fighting to keep the $40,000 cap as it is. 

After the White House meeting Wednesday, Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo lamented about the cost of the House bill’s SALT cap. 

“There’s not a single Republican senator from New York, New Jersey or California, so there’s not a strong sentiment in the Republican conference to do $350 billion for states that the other states subsidize,” Crapo told reporters.   

Crapo’s top priority for the Senate tax bill is extending a bevy of temporary business tax breaks in the House bill that would expire after 2029, including enhanced interest expensing and deductions on research, development and equipment. Crapo is looking to trim other aspects of the House bill in order to offset the added cost of making those breaks permanent. 

He said that a decision had not yet been made on whether to lower the SALT cap or to what level. Under current law, individuals and couples can deduct $10,000 in state and local taxes if they itemize on their tax returns. 

Johnson said that the higher cap is crucial for the House to be able to pass the final version of the tax bill when it is sent back from the Senate later in the summer. He said he has made that clear to the Senate GOP.

“I told my friends I am crossing the Grand Canyon on a piece of dental floss,” he said.

The Washington Post first reported Trump’s openness to a smaller cap. 

“The White House is working closely with leaders in Congress to ensure that this landmark legislation gets over the finish line,” said spokesperson Kush Desai.

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Employers added 139K jobs in May, including 3,100 in accounting

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Employment grew by 139,000 jobs in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%.

Employment continued to grow in the health care, leisure and hospitality and social assistance sectors, but the federal government continued to lose jobs as the Trump administration kept up its efforts to slash the workforce. The professional and business services sector lost 18,000 jobs in May, but added 3,100 in accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping and payroll services. 

Average hourly earnings increased 15 cents, or 0.4%, to $36.24 in May. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased 3.9%. 

“Really only two sectors made up the bulk of all job growth — health care and social assistance (+78K) and leisure and hospitality (+48K),” said Andrew Flowers, chief economist at Appcast. “The ‘diffusion index’ (which measures the breadth of job growth) fell near the lowest point of this cycle. Beyond those sectors, there were signs that professional and business services job growth has weakened further, with the three-month moving average now negative. Moreover, the DOGE-led effort to trim government bureaucrats is having real effects, with a -22K job contraction in the federal workforce.”

As part of those cuts, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics itself has been cutting back on its collection of consumer data for measures such as the Consumer Price Index, which could affect the reliability of some of its data. The BLS has also been getting lower response rates in recent years to its surveys, which could affect the reliability of its data. “They’re getting a lot less data than they used to, so those things add up to probably some volatility in the numbers that come out,” said Frank Fiorille, vice president of risk, compliance and data analytics at Paychex.

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