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Trump’s proposed tariff increases would boost inflation by nearly 1%, Goldman Sachs estimates

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President-elect Donald Trump speaks at the U.S.-Mexico border on August 22, 2024 south of Sierra Vista, Arizona. 

Rebecca Noble | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The latest tariff proposal from President-elect Donald Trump would likely put upward pressure on inflation in the United States, according to Goldman Sachs.

On Monday, Trump said on social media site Truth Social that he would impose an additional 10% tariff on goods from China and a 25% duty for Canada and Mexico. Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a note that the proposed levies would result in a notable increase for consumer prices in the U.S..

“Using our rule of thumb that every 1 [percentage point] increase in the effective tariff rate would raise core PCE prices by 0.1%, we estimate that the proposed tariff increases would boost core PCE prices by 0.9% if implemented,” Hatzius said.

“PCE” refers to the personal consumption expenditures price index. The core PCE, which strips out food and energy prices, is the preferred inflation reading of the Federal Reserve.

A tariff-linked increase in core PCE could scramble the calculations around Fed rate cuts. The October PCE reading is due out on Wednesday, and it’s expected to show a year-over-year increase of 2.8% for core, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones. In other words, inflation is still above the Fed’s target of 2%, and the tariffs could widen that gap.

Traders have been dialing back their expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025, though it is unclear how much of that is due to election results versus a resilient U.S. economy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said the central bank will consider the impact of tariffs and other fiscal policy changes on the direction of inflation once the details become clear.

To be sure, it remains to be seen whether the tariffs will actually be implemented at the levels Trump proposed — or what exceptions might be made. The President-elect suggested in his social media post that the tariffs were conditional on changes to immigration policy and drug enforcement, specifically fentanyl. Some of Trump’s advisors and supporters have characterized the tariffs he proposed during the campaign as a bargaining position rather than a set policy.

Hatzius, for his part, said it seems more likely that Canada and Mexico would avoid across-the-board tariffs than China.

The three countries in question account for 43% of U.S. goods imports, and the tariffs would result in slightly less than $300 billion in revenue annually, according to Goldman Sachs calculations.

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Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

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Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

Inflation barely budged in April as tariffs President Donald Trump implemented in the early part of the month had yet to show up in consumer prices, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, increased just 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.1%. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast while the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower.

Excluding food and energy, the core reading that tends to get even greater focus from Fed policymakers showed readings of 0.1% and 2.5%, against respective estimates of 0.1% and 2.6%.

Consumer spending, though, slowed sharply for the month, posting just a 0.2% increase, in line with the consensus but slower than the 0.7% rate in March. A more cautious consumer mood also was reflected in the personal savings rate, which jumped to 4.9%, up from 0.6 percentage point in March to the highest level in nearly a year.

Personal income surged 0.8%, a slight increase from the prior month but well ahead of the forecast for 0.3%.

Markets showed little reaction to the news, with stock futures continuing to point lower and Treasury yields mixed.

People shop at a grocery store in Brooklyn on May 13, 2025 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Trump has been pushing the Fed to lower its key interest rate as inflation has continued to gravitate back to the central bank’s 2% target. However, policymakers have been hesitant to move as they await the longer-term impacts of the president’s trade policy.

On Thursday, Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell held their first face-to-face meeting since the president started his second term. However, a Fed statement indicated the future path of monetary policy was not discussed and stressed that decisions would be made free of political considerations.

Trump slapped across-the-board 10% duties on all U.S. imports, part of an effort to even out a trading landscape in which the U.S. ran a record $140.5 billion deficit in March. In addition to the general tariffs, Trump launched selective reciprocal tariffs much higher than the 10% general charge.

Since then, though, Trump has backed off the more severe tariffs in favor of a 90-day negotiating period with the affected countries. Earlier this week, an international court struck down the tariffs, saying Trump exceeded his authority and didn’t prove that national security was threatened by the trade issues.

Then in the latest installment of the drama, an appeals court allowed a White House effort for a temporary stay of the order from the U.S. Court of International Trade.

Economists worry that tariffs could spark another round of inflation, though the historical record shows that their impact is often minimal.

At their policy meeting earlier this month, Fed officials also expressed worry about potential tariff inflation, particularly at a time when concerns are rising about the labor market. Higher prices and slower economic growth can yield stagflation, a phenomenon the U.S. hasn’t seen since the early 1980s.

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