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Trump’s proposed tariff increases would boost inflation by nearly 1%, Goldman Sachs estimates

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President-elect Donald Trump speaks at the U.S.-Mexico border on August 22, 2024 south of Sierra Vista, Arizona. 

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The latest tariff proposal from President-elect Donald Trump would likely put upward pressure on inflation in the United States, according to Goldman Sachs.

On Monday, Trump said on social media site Truth Social that he would impose an additional 10% tariff on goods from China and a 25% duty for Canada and Mexico. Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a note that the proposed levies would result in a notable increase for consumer prices in the U.S..

“Using our rule of thumb that every 1 [percentage point] increase in the effective tariff rate would raise core PCE prices by 0.1%, we estimate that the proposed tariff increases would boost core PCE prices by 0.9% if implemented,” Hatzius said.

“PCE” refers to the personal consumption expenditures price index. The core PCE, which strips out food and energy prices, is the preferred inflation reading of the Federal Reserve.

A tariff-linked increase in core PCE could scramble the calculations around Fed rate cuts. The October PCE reading is due out on Wednesday, and it’s expected to show a year-over-year increase of 2.8% for core, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones. In other words, inflation is still above the Fed’s target of 2%, and the tariffs could widen that gap.

Traders have been dialing back their expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025, though it is unclear how much of that is due to election results versus a resilient U.S. economy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said the central bank will consider the impact of tariffs and other fiscal policy changes on the direction of inflation once the details become clear.

To be sure, it remains to be seen whether the tariffs will actually be implemented at the levels Trump proposed — or what exceptions might be made. The President-elect suggested in his social media post that the tariffs were conditional on changes to immigration policy and drug enforcement, specifically fentanyl. Some of Trump’s advisors and supporters have characterized the tariffs he proposed during the campaign as a bargaining position rather than a set policy.

Hatzius, for his part, said it seems more likely that Canada and Mexico would avoid across-the-board tariffs than China.

The three countries in question account for 43% of U.S. goods imports, and the tariffs would result in slightly less than $300 billion in revenue annually, according to Goldman Sachs calculations.

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Bessent sees tariff agreement as progress in ‘strategic’ decoupling with China

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Treasury Sec. Bessent: Likely to meet with China again 'in next few weeks' on a bigger agreement

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that the trade agreement reached over the weekend represents another stage in the U.S. shaking its reliance on Chinese products.

Though the U.S. “decoupling” itself from its need for cheap imports from the China has been discussed for years, the process has been a slow one and unlikely to ever mean a complete break.

However, Bessent said there are now specific elements of decoupling in place that are vital to U.S. interests. The U.S. imported nearly $440 billion in goods from China in 2024, running a $295.4 billion trade deficit.

“We do not want a generalized decoupling from China,” he said during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “But what we do want is a decoupling for strategic necessities, which we were unable to obtain during Covid and we realized that efficient supply chains were not resilient supply chains.”

When the pandemic struck in 2020, demand in the U.S. shifted from one reliant more on services to a greater focus on goods. That meant greater difficulty in obtaining material for multiple products including big-ticket appliances and automobiles. The technology industry, with its reliance on semiconductors, was also hit. What followed was an inflation surge in the U.S. not seen in more than 40 years.

The details of the U.S.-China pact are still sketchy, but U.S. officials have said so-called reciprocal tariffs will be suspended though broad-based 10% duties will remain in effect.

“We are going to create our own steel. [Tariffs] protect our steel industry. They work on critical medicines, on semiconductors,” Bessent said. “We are doing that, and the reciprocal tariffs have nothing to do with the specific industry tariffs.”

The agreement between the two sides is essentially a 90-day pause that will see reciprocal duties halted though the 10% tariff as well as a 20% charge related to fentanyl remain in place.

Bessent expressed encouragement on the fentanyl issue in which Chinese officials “are now serious about assisting the U.S. in stopping the flow of precursor drugs.” Bessent did not indicate a specific date when the next round of talks will be held but indicated it should be in the next several weeks.

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Checks and Balance newsletter: The election of Pope Leo XIV goes beyond American politics

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Checks and Balance newsletter: The election of Pope Leo XIV goes beyond American politics

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Germany’s economy chief Reiche sets out roadmap to end turmoil

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09 May 2025, Bavaria, Gmund Am Tegernsee: Katherina Reiche (CDU), Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, takes part in the Ludwig Erhard Summit. Representatives from business, politics, science and the media are taking part in the three-day summit. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa (Photo by Sven Hoppe/picture alliance via Getty Images)

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Germany needs to take more risks and boost its stagnant economy with a decade of investment in infrastructure, German Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Katherina Reiche said Friday.

“The next decade will be the decade of infrastructure investments in bridges, in energy infrastructure, in storage, in maritime infrastructure… telecommunication. And for this, we need speed. We need speed and investments, and we need private capital,” Reiche told CNBC’s Annette Weisbach on the sidelines of the Tegernsee summit.

While 10% of investments could be taken care of with public money, the remaining 90% relied on the private sector, she said.

The newly minted economy minister also addressed regulation coming from Brussels, warning that it could hinder companies from investments and start-ups from growing if it is too restrictive. Germany has had to learn that investments comes with risks “and we have to kind of be open for taking more risks,” she said.

Watch CNBC's full interview with German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche

“This country needs an economic turnaround. After two years of recessions the previous government had to announce again [a] zero growth year for 2025 and we really have to work on this. So on the top of the agenda is an investor booster,” the minister added.

Lowering energy prices, stabilizing the security of energy supply and reducing bureaucracy were among the key points on the agenda, Reiche said.

Germany’s economy contracted slightly on an annual basis in both 2023 and 2024 and the quarterly gross domestic product has been flipping between growth and contraction for over two years now, just about managing to avoid a technical recession. Preliminary data for the first quarter of 2025 showed a 0.2% expansion.

Forecasts do not suggest much of a reprieve from the sluggishness, with the now former German government last month saying it still expects the economy to stagnate this year.

This is despite a major fiscal U-turn announced earlier this year, which included changes to the country’s long-standing debt rules to allow for additional defense spending and a 500-billion-euro ($562.4 billion) infrastructure package.

Several of Germany’s key industries are under pressure. The auto industry for example is dealing with stark competition from China and now faces tariffs, while issues in housebuilding and infrastructure have been linked to higher costs and bureaucratic hurdles.

Trade is also a key pillar for the German economy and therefore uncertainty from U.S. President Donald Trump’s changing tariff policies are weighing heavily on the outlook.

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